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'21-'22 Roster Construction

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  • c-troop wrote: View Post

    "Birch fits great" is kind of a white lie to protect coveted cap. Our team defence was 112.5 last year and as for scoring it wouldn't matter if Birch scored 5 extra points last season because his eFG% is so bad that it would take 10 possessions just to do so + I highly doubt if we draft a G with the 4th overall you would want more possessions going to the C position.

    In reality, Noel is the teams' better fit regardless of offensive limitations because his usage is so low it gives more looks to shooters and his eFG% is very high when he's fed bunnies. Plus he's only 26 with 7 years experience. Ur the cap guru tho, so I am unaware how much MLE could even be allocated towards signing him that way.

    My guess is he's going for 7-10 mill a season x 4.

    Now as for "It is far smarter to use all your cap room in one place to maximize the quality of the player you get." That is true if you are ready to compete right away or else it's just setting expectations too high for nothing and a few years of later draft picks. I think this teams' window has closed for at least 3 years. Patience is the real winner here. Forget trying to land the big fish in FA. Until we can get back to Lowry/Derozan playoff status, it's time to acquire cheap tradeable pieces with a buy low/sell high mentality whilst retaining our best players.
    The Raptors had a limited sample down the stretch where they were trying to win games, but the starting lineup of Lowry, FVV, OG, Pascal and Birch played 92 minutes together and had a +23 net rating (won those 92 minutes by 41 points). We KNOW he fits great.

    10M x 4 is the MLE. I suspect they give most of that to Birch and save a couple million to sign their 2nd round draft picks. I suspect Birch or Noel would cost the same, can't afford both.

    Extremely low usage scorers are a big problem for an offence. Defences can ignore them - which makes those extra shots your shooters "get" very difficult shots. Hence Noel's very poor offensive impact stats. It's not about force feeding extra possessions to Birch vs Noel. It's about defences having to guard him. We saw what happens when you don't have to guard a centre like Aron Baynes. No thanks to repeating that experience. Never mind that Birch had a ~60% TS% in Toronto, and has historically throughout his career had similar shooting numbers, his cold start in Orlando last season notwithstanding.

    It is never the right move to try to collect a bunch of MLE sized contracts if you are able to chase better players. Those mid level salaries are usually the most overpaid and least useful in trade contracts because there is always a big market for that price point with basically the whole league able to bid every role player on the market up to the MLE.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

      Noel had behavioral issues that involved trashing a hotel .... I thnk Noel would be interesting as insurance if it isn't Birch but I would rather Birch. Even if we get Mobley I feel like Birch may need some back line help and I can see them deciding against bringing back Gillespie on a minimum but I think they want him on a Two - Way deal.



      Also last year Noel had 5.1ppg in NY in 64 games with 41 starts. In 19 games with the raptors 17 starts Birch had 11.9 ppg.


      Birch shot the 3 at a 30% clip vs 0% for Noel.

      Birch had a higher number of steals just barely but Noel was a better blocker.

      Similar 2%

      Looking at Rebounds Birch is a better rebounder actually. Shorter but weighs more by 10 pounds officially. Age difference is a year.


      But go on.

      ur lying man, 2 years age difference, + 7 years exp vs 4.

      shooting the 3 at 25% is not hitting 30% just like shooting the 3 at 35% is not 40%. His eFG% is not outstanding.

      As for steals? Noel had 70, Birch had 50...

      Noel had 408 rebounds Birch had 387. The difference in minutes played between them is only 18 mins.

      Noel posted 141 blocks last season man, that's big.

      His defensive upside outweighs Birch's offensive upside IMO + pairing them as a 1, 2 punch might actually the way to go instead of comparing who is better considering they bring different skills to the table.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post

        The Raptors had a limited sample down the stretch where they were trying to win games, but the starting lineup of Lowry, FVV, OG, Pascal and Birch played 92 minutes together and had a +23 net rating (won those 92 minutes by 41 points). We KNOW he fits great.

        10M x 4 is the MLE. I suspect they give most of that to Birch and save a couple million to sign their 2nd round draft picks. I suspect Birch or Noel would cost the same, can't afford both.

        Extremely low usage scorers are a big problem for an offence. Defences can ignore them - which makes those extra shots your shooters "get" very difficult shots. Hence Noel's very poor offensive impact stats. It's not about force feeding extra possessions to Birch vs Noel. It's about defences having to guard him. We saw what happens when you don't have to guard a centre like Aron Baynes. No thanks to repeating that experience. Never mind that Birch had a ~60% TS% in Toronto, and has historically throughout his career had similar shooting numbers, his cold start in Orlando last season notwithstanding.

        It is never the right move to try to collect a bunch of MLE sized contracts if you are able to chase better players. Those mid level salaries are usually the most overpaid and least useful in trade contracts because there is always a big market for that price point with basically the whole league able to bid every role player on the market up to the MLE.
        Lowry probably won't be here so using a lineup that literally won't exist next season is kind of irrelevant. They could afford it if they dip into the cap. I don't think Birch is a 10 mill player. That would be disappointing IMO. Noel is not Baynes, not even close, he's way too active.

        Historically speaking Noel has 500 more blocks, than Birch, 2000 more rebounds no exaggeration and honestly, every one of his stats is juiced in comparison so I will disregard the historical argument based on Birch putting up nice stats during garbage time behind Vucci during Orlando blowouts. Birch has literally only made 13 threes in his entire career, not hating just facts.

        I like Birch's offensive capabilities but he is a defensive liability at the position where defence is detrimental for team success. Like I said in the post above, if you paired them in a rotation it could be superb.
        Last edited by c-troop; Thu Jul 15, 2021, 01:08 AM.

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        • c-troop wrote: View Post

          ur lying man, 2 years age difference, + 7 years exp vs 4.

          shooting the 3 at 25% is not hitting 30% just like shooting the 3 at 35% is not 40%. His eFG% is not outstanding.

          As for steals? Noel had 70, Birch had 50...

          Noel had 408 rebounds Birch had 387. The difference in minutes played between them is only 18 mins.

          Noel posted 141 blocks last season man, that's big.

          His defensive upside outweighs Birch's offensive upside IMO + pairing them as a 1, 2 punch might actually the way to go instead of comparing who is better considering they bring different skills to the table.
          If you want to call someone a liar - or perhaps more politely, suggest that they don't have their facts straight - it's best to point to your sources and ask them to point to theirs. That way, people like me can look at the sources provided and assess their accuracy for ourselves.

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          • TheWaterboy wrote: View Post

            If you want to call someone a liar - or perhaps more politely, suggest that they don't have their facts straight - it's best to point to your sources and ask them to point to theirs. That way, people like me can look at the sources provided and assess their accuracy for ourselves.
            Hey man, ur absolutely right. if you go back one page I linked the stats in my reply to DanH.

            https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_...&p2yrfrom=2021

            Also if you click show criteria you can adjust years and show entire career vs entire career!

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            • c-troop wrote: View Post

              Lowry probably won't be here so using a lineup that literally won't exist next season is kind of irrelevant. They could afford it if they dip into the cap. I don't think Birch is a 10 mill player. That would be disappointing IMO. Noel is not Baynes, not even close, he's way too active.

              Historically speaking Noel has 500 more blocks, than Birch, 2000 more rebounds no exaggeration and honestly, every one of his stats is juiced in comparison so I will disregard the historical argument based on Birch putting up nice stats during garbage time behind Vucci during Orlando blowouts. Birch has literally only made 13 threes in his entire career, not hating just facts.

              I like Birch's offensive capabilities but he is a defensive liability at the position where defence is detrimental for team success. Like I said in the post above, if you paired them in a rotation it could be superb.
              I didn't realize you were in Lowry's inner circle. Either way, if you really want to ignore how well Birch fit on the team last year of course you would want to ignore any minutes where he played with good players...

              They could afford what if they dive into the cap? You need exceptions to go above the cap, like the MLE. Which they will have only one of. Unless you are suggesting we using 15M of cap space to sign both Birch and Noel, which, hard no thank you to that, sign or trade for one real good center, not two decent backups.

              The historical argument was just support for the actual argument of how he performed while with the Raptors last season. Much of which was not in that ideal lineup, obviously, with all the time those guys missed late in the year.

              Birch is a defensive liability? He's a solid, unspectacular defender. That's not a liability. You want to talk about liability, it's Noel on the offensive end who craters the team's success in a meaningful way. Noel may not be Baynes, but he has a very similar effect. Activity is basically useless if you are not a threat to score, and he isn't.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • DanH wrote: View Post

                I didn't realize you were in Lowry's inner circle. Either way, if you really want to ignore how well Birch fit on the team last year of course you would want to ignore any minutes where he played with good players...

                They could afford what if they dive into the cap? You need exceptions to go above the cap, like the MLE. Which they will have only one of. Unless you are suggesting we using 15M of cap space to sign both Birch and Noel, which, hard no thank you to that, sign or trade for one real good center, not two decent backups.

                The historical argument was just support for the actual argument of how he performed while with the Raptors last season. Much of which was not in that ideal lineup, obviously, with all the time those guys missed late in the year.

                Birch is a defensive liability? He's a solid, unspectacular defender. That's not a liability. You want to talk about liability, it's Noel on the offensive end who craters the team's success in a meaningful way. Noel may not be Baynes, but he has a very similar effect. Activity is basically useless if you are not a threat to score, and he isn't.
                seems we are at an impasse.

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                • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post
                  Every offseason there is always that first domino to fall that would start the ball rolling. It would be interesting who would that be.

                  I predict, it would be Lillard.
                  Damian Lillard reportedly plans to request a trade in the coming days.
                  https://twitter.com/thescore/status/...213158914?s=21

                  First domino

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                  • https://allucanheat.com/2021/07/17/m...illard-rumors/


                    The Miami Heat should be on the phone immediately if Lillard requests a trade. A package built around Tyler Herro and numerous picks could be enough to sway Portland, depending on what other offers they receive.

                    If Lillard were to join the Miami Heat, a big three of him, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo would be one of the best in the league. They would have enough talent to compete for a championship right away.
                    Raptors can definitely beat that Heat package with Van Vleet/ Boucher/ 2021 FRP (no.4), 2022 FRP and 2SRPs

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                    • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post
                      https://allucanheat.com/2021/07/17/m...illard-rumors/



                      Raptors can definitely beat that Heat package with Van Vleet/ Boucher/ 2021 FRP (no.4), 2022 FRP and 2SRPs
                      Well, realistically, the "numerous" picks in any package would be way more than you have listed there, but a VanVleet and Boucher salary core is one of the options I proposed too (and probably the most realistic outcome and also preferred version for the Raptors).
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • DanH wrote: View Post

                        Well, realistically, the "numerous" picks in any package would be way more than you have listed there, but a VanVleet and Boucher salary core is one of the options I proposed too (and probably the most realistic outcome and also preferred version for the Raptors).
                        No. 4 for Magic’s 5 and 8? to start the ball rolling? Your thoughts

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                        • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post

                          No. 4 for Magic’s 5 and 8? to start the ball rolling? Your thoughts
                          The only scenario where I would consider trading 4 for 5 and 8 is if CLE or HOU reaches for a Kuminga or Barnes. If only one of the top 4 is there, take them and run. Depending on which 2 remain, if a reach does happen, I can see the argument for a trade down.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post

                            The only scenario where I would consider trading 4 for 5 and 8 is if CLE or HOU reaches for a Kuminga or Barnes. If only one of the top 4 is there, take them and run. Depending on which 2 remain, if a reach does happen, I can see the argument for a trade down.
                            I would do this too in this scenario, but if that were to happen, that means one of the consensus top 4 would also be available at #5 for the Magic. They would have to value one of to the 2 left significantly more than the other in order to give up the 8th pick just to move up one spot. I wouldn't do it if I'm the Magic but they might, depending on who's left. That is also the only scenario in which I consider trading out of the 4th (aside from including it in a package for a superstar)
                            2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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