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'21-'22 Roster Construction

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  • Primer
    replied
    I seriously do not understand any of the doom and gloom takes on our offense. We lost Lowry and that's it. He averaged 17 points per game last year. We can easily replace that with Trent and Birch and Dragic and Precious and Scottie. You guys acting like we just lost James Harden or something.

    Not to mention the offense was completely fine last year when Lowry was out, and that was with our much crappier roster last season and playing in Tampa.

    Everyone on the team can score, most in a variety of ways. But just to hammer the point home here are the PPG for our top 9 players. [left out Scottie because he doesn't have NBA numbers yet]

    FVV 20 pts 36 min
    Trent 16 pts 32 min
    OG 16 pts 33 min
    Siakam 22 pts 36 min
    Birch 12pts 30 min
    Flynn 8 pts 20 min
    Dragic 13 pts 27 min
    Boucher 14 pts 24 min
    Precious 5 pts 12 min

    = 126 points per game

    That's 250 minutes per game. Games only have 240 minutes so reducing the time evenly we get 121 points per game.

    This factors in zero improvement from anyone, when I'd assume Flynn and Precious will have better numbers at least, not to mention OG and Trent.

    Call me crazy but I'm not worried at all about the offense. With the defense we will have, if we score over 100 points I think we'll win 9 times out of 10.

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  • golden
    replied
    Puffer wrote: View Post

    The newer roster style and the obvious strategy using these long, fast, higher Bball IQ players is fast passes, screens, cuts and getting the ball to the best shot available. The drafting and signings don't make sense unless that is the path forward. I don't have high expectations that we are going to see a smoothly operating system out of the gate. But if they persist for the first third of the season playing that way, they make the playoffs and also have developed a process that will let them win playoff games even without having a player you can just pass the ball to when you need a basket. Now they may just find they have one or two of those guys when all is said and done. Easier to find them when your whole roster is full of twitchy serious man on man defenders who also have the length to disrupt passing lanes and then pass the stolen ball over everybody elses head to your man streaking down the open court for an easy basket.

    Speaking of guys you can just give the ball to when you need a basket, how many of those guys are there in the league? High usage guys who shoot over 60%?
    List of players with > 25% USG and > 57% TS% last year (27 guys):

    Player __________TS% ____ USG%

    Luka Dončić ____ 0.587 ____ 36
    Joel Embiid ____ 0.636 ____ 35.3
    Stephen Curry ____ 0.655 ____ 34.8
    Bradley Beal ____ 0.593 ____ 34.1
    Trae Young ____ 0.589 ____ 33
    Devin Booker ____ 0.587 ____ 32.7
    Giannis ________ 0.633 ____ 32.5
    LeBron James ____ 0.602 ____ 31.9
    Damian Lillard ____ 0.623 ____ 31.4
    Zach LaVine ____ 0.634 ____ 31
    Jayson Tatum ____ 0.576 ____ 30.8
    Kyrie Irving ____ 0.614 ____ 30.4
    Paul George ____ 0.598 ____ 30
    Zion Williamson ____ 0.649 ____ 29.8
    Jaylen Brown ____ 0.586 ____ 29.7
    Collin Sexton ____ 0.573 ____ 29.7
    Nikola Jokić ____ 0.647 ____ 29.6
    Karl-Anthony Towns ___ 0.612 ____ 29.1
    Kawhi Leonard ____ 0.622 ____ 28.6
    James Harden ____ 0.618 ____ 28.4
    Brandon Ingram ____ 0.584 ____ 28
    CJ McCollum ____ 0.577 ____ 27.1
    Jimmy Butler ____ 0.607 ____ 26.6
    Kristaps Porziņģis ____ 0.582 ____ 26.5
    DeMar DeRozan ____ 0.591 ____ 26.1
    Christian Wood ____ 0.591 ____ 25.9
    Khris Middleton ____ 0.588 ____ 25

    Durant just missed the list (BBREF) because of games played.
    Last edited by golden; Fri Aug 20, 2021, 04:14 PM.

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  • TheWaterboy
    replied
    Puffer wrote: View Post

    The newer roster style and the obvious strategy using these long, fast, higher Bball IQ players is fast passes, screens, cuts and getting the ball to the best shot available. The drafting and signings don't make sense unless that is the path forward. I don't have high expectations that we are going to see a smoothly operating system out of the gate. But if they persist for the first third of the season playing that way, they make the playoffs and also have developed a process that will let them win playoff games even without having a player you can just pass the ball to when you need a basket. Now they may just find they have one or two of those guys when all is said and done. Easier to find them when your whole roster is full of twitchy serious man on man defenders who also have the length to disrupt passing lanes and then pass the stolen ball over everybody elses head to your man streaking down the open court for an easy basket.

    Speaking of guys you can just give the ball to when you need a basket, how many of those guys are there in the league? High usage guys who shoot over 60%?
    Agreed, especially on the screens and cuts. A fully three-point-focused offense worked well with Kyle as the crafty master orchestrating things, but it's not a good fit for Fred. Additional motion combined with the additional threat of the pass to the cutter should first unlock his three-point shooting, and once the threat of the shot and the pass are both equally respected, may also unlock his drive and/or drive-and-kick game as well.

    Leave a comment:


  • Puffer
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post

    Raps had 8 guys last year with over 20USG%, 6 guys with between 12-17 shot attempts per game, and 8 guys averaging 12 or more points, so it's not about general distribution. As for late fourth quarters, you are always going to see the ball mostly in 2-3 players' hands. That's not really the problem. The problem is that the Raps don't have enough guys who can makes plays and make shots, so they are easy to bog down in the half court. I would also say that their offense doesn't put their players in a position to succeed but lots of people disagree with that and I've been flogging that dead horse for 2 years now.
    The newer roster style and the obvious strategy using these long, fast, higher Bball IQ players is fast passes, screens, cuts and getting the ball to the best shot available. The drafting and signings don't make sense unless that is the path forward. I don't have high expectations that we are going to see a smoothly operating system out of the gate. But if they persist for the first third of the season playing that way, they make the playoffs and also have developed a process that will let them win playoff games even without having a player you can just pass the ball to when you need a basket. Now they may just find they have one or two of those guys when all is said and done. Easier to find them when your whole roster is full of twitchy serious man on man defenders who also have the length to disrupt passing lanes and then pass the stolen ball over everybody elses head to your man streaking down the open court for an easy basket.

    Speaking of guys you can just give the ball to when you need a basket, how many of those guys are there in the league? High usage guys who shoot over 60%?

    Leave a comment:


  • The Great One
    replied
    The Raps will make the playoffs. They're going to finish with a better record than the Knicks and the Hawks.

    Leave a comment:


  • slaw
    replied
    inthepaint wrote: View Post

    Yes, that's the idyllic equal-opportunity offence. That's what I'd like to see too for this team, and we actually call for some version of that every year: more ball movement, less stagnant iso's, better shot selection etc.

    In reality though, for some reason, what we see (especially in 4th quarter of close games), is a heavy dose of Pascal Iso's and Fred volume shooting. The usage unfortunately always skews toward these guys late in games, which ends up with them taking way more shots than they should. Nurse pecking order.

    So if they continue to take lots of shots, the hope is that at least one of them averages ~24ppg. But yeah, I'd rather have multiple guys scoring a smooth 12 on good efficiency than Fred/Pascal pushing for 30 on tough shots.
    Raps had 8 guys last year with over 20USG%, 6 guys with between 12-17 shot attempts per game, and 8 guys averaging 12 or more points, so it's not about general distribution. As for late fourth quarters, you are always going to see the ball mostly in 2-3 players' hands. That's not really the problem. The problem is that the Raps don't have enough guys who can makes plays and make shots, so they are easy to bog down in the half court. I would also say that their offense doesn't put their players in a position to succeed but lots of people disagree with that and I've been flogging that dead horse for 2 years now.

    Leave a comment:


  • inthepaint
    replied
    saints91 wrote: View Post
    For this team to be effective Trent, OG, Pascal, Dragic and Fred all should be shooting 13-15 shots a game, the ball should be moving. This team is designed to have a balanced offensive attack, it doesn’t need to be one or two guys with higher usage then the rest. If that’s the case, then I doubt this team succeeds.
    Yes, that's the idyllic equal-opportunity offence. That's what I'd like to see too for this team, and we actually call for some version of that every year: more ball movement, less stagnant iso's, better shot selection etc.

    In reality though, for some reason, what we see (especially in 4th quarter of close games), is a heavy dose of Pascal Iso's and Fred volume shooting. The usage unfortunately always skews toward these guys late in games, which ends up with them taking way more shots than they should. Nurse pecking order.

    So if they continue to take lots of shots, the hope is that at least one of them averages ~24ppg. But yeah, I'd rather have multiple guys scoring a smooth 12 on good efficiency than Fred/Pascal pushing for 30 on tough shots.

    Leave a comment:


  • saints91
    replied
    For this team to be effective Trent, OG, Pascal, Dragic and Fred all should be shooting 13-15 shots a game, the ball should be moving. This team is designed to have a balanced offensive attack, it doesn’t need to be one or two guys with higher usage then the rest. If that’s the case, then I doubt this team succeeds.

    Leave a comment:


  • Yuri Gagarin
    replied
    With Pascal injured Im guessing Fred will take the most shots by seasons end. Hopefully trent takes more but if Fred does his shooting efficiency will be key to success. Your leading shot taker needs to shoot well or its a real challenge. If fred shoots the most and shoots poorly and we’re bottom 6 in rebounds we’re lottery

    Leave a comment:


  • planetmars
    replied
    SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
    I see no reason why we shouldn't be there with the likes of Bulls-Hornets-Pacers, and better. We could quite easily be as good as Boston and New York, their "established stars" aren't much more established than Fred and Pascal and we have better depth, just more youth.

    If everything clicks with the position less basketball thing and Barnes' fills Kyle's leadership vacuum to some degree - resulting in a team that can get out and run and D up but hit shots - then we should be chomping at the heels of Miami.

    Everything's clicking in my head, that's for sure.
    Indiana is a bit of a dark horse because they upgraded their coach. They have a well balanced team as well.. especially if they get a healthy team. LeVert/Warren is a pretty good duo to add to Brogdon/Sabonis/Turner. And they have some sneaky good depth with Holiday and McConnell. Duarte was a revelation in summer league.

    But yeah I think NY takes a little bit of a step back. I don't think Randle will be as good as last year. And he's their best player. Boston getting Schroeder likely gets them in. They needed a PG and now have one.

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  • inthepaint
    replied
    planetmars wrote: View Post

    They have to beat everyone in Tier 4 to make it or make it to Tier 3. It's not going to be easy.. so much more parity in the East. Can't get swept by Casey again for example. Most, if not all winnable game have to be won IMO.
    This will be a fun year regardless because it looks like we'll be trying something new, taking "posiontionless" to the next level and we'll likely have an outstanding defence ( both team and individually). Ultimately though, you still need to find a way to put the ball in the hoop abundantly other than in transition.

    But yeah, at the risk of being way too early for these calls, I'll say this:

    If they get a scorer by the deadline, or if either Trent Siakam or Fred get to an efficient ~25ppg (meaning no forced ISOs), they'll beat everyone in tier 4, because of the overall combination of offence and defence. If not, they're probably back in the lottery.

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  • JawsGT
    replied
    The Bulls are over rated. They got some scorers but i think it will be a challenge for them to figure out a coherent and consistent offence. Might be a lot of turn based offence. Their defence will likely be poor. If they can somehow play decent d, then they are likely in, otherwise a play in team at best. The celtics are interesting because they have done little to upgrade their roster so Im not sure what to expect from them. Indy should be better than last season, raps too of course.

    bucks, nets, sixers, heat, hawks are locks IMO. Raps, knicks, pacers, bulls and celts should be battling for the final 3 spots. Maybe the sixers implode. Maybe charlotte or wiz will surprise and sneak in, hopefully not at the raps expense.

    I wanna say for sure we are a playoff team, but it wont be easy. Alot of good teams this season. We are going to need some improvement from guys for sure, and hopefully the chemistry is there right out the gate. I am optimistic.

    Leave a comment:


  • SkywalkerAC
    replied
    I see no reason why we shouldn't be there with the likes of Bulls-Hornets-Pacers, and better. We could quite easily be as good as Boston and New York, their "established stars" aren't much more established than Fred and Pascal and we have better depth, just more youth.

    If everything clicks with the position less basketball thing and Barnes' fills Kyle's leadership vacuum to some degree - resulting in a team that can get out and run and D up but hit shots - then we should be chomping at the heels of Miami.

    Everything's clicking in my head, that's for sure.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    planetmars wrote: View Post

    They have to beat everyone in Tier 4 to make it or make it to Tier 3. It's not going to be easy.. so much more parity in the East. Can't get swept by Casey again for example. Most, if not all winnable game have to be won IMO.
    Welcome to life without Kyle and the retool.
    cant wait.

    its sobering.
    But the championship era is now a great memory.
    6 of the eight guys that played meaningful minutes are gone.
    Lowry, Gasol , Kawahi, Serge, Norm , Green
    Pascal and Freddy played prominent roles...and they can lead here.
    Its talent but it’s young in NBA terms with OG, Barnes, Trent Flynn..but here we go.
    The next era of Raps basketball starts in about 60 days.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Thu Aug 19, 2021, 06:30 PM.

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  • planetmars
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

    I think they make it as well...but its not going to be easy.

    Good Things about the Raps: Defense, Coaching, Speed , Spacing, at least league average or better 3 point shooting.
    Not so Good things about the Raps. Rebounding, Half Court Offense

    The best guess power rankings as of right now.

    Tier 1. The Big Dogs. Nets Bucks
    Tier 2..Yeah but.. Prove It. . Philly Miami
    Tier 3...They're Here Now. but still need something. Atlanta Boston Knicks
    Tier 4...Trying to get to Tier 3. Raps Bulls, Charlotte ,Indy, Whiz
    Tier 5.. Selling Hope and the Future for another year .. Cavs, Pistons, Magic


    Can the Raps beat out one of the Tier 4 guys to get in YES

    or do one of the Knicks, Hawks and Celtics shit the bed.... YES
    They have to beat everyone in Tier 4 to make it or make it to Tier 3. It's not going to be easy.. so much more parity in the East. Can't get swept by Casey again for example. Most, if not all winnable game have to be won IMO.

    Leave a comment:

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