'21-'22 Roster Construction

[golden]

I will be absolutely shocked if they have another bad season next year and Casey doesn't get fired. No coach gets 4 years in a row of losing basketball being one of the worst teams in the NBA without getting fired. He had zero expectations to win this year but when they brought him in he was supposed to get them over the hump to contention not turn them into a dumpster fire. They pivoted to tanking because it was the only option with how terrible they were performing.

I was one of the biggest Casey detractors on this board, but seriously, he inherited a broken-down Griffin and low IQ Drummond as his franchise centerpieces, because SVG was way over his head as a GM. That roster needed a complete tear-down, which is happening now.

The bigger factor is that do you think ownership is going fire Casey early and pay him $7M per year to stay at home, and then have to pay another coach while that roster is still a bunch of young players and rookies who won't be in a position to win games for 3-4 years anyways? Nah... the Pistons newly hired GM needs to save that valuable "fire the coach" bullet for when his own butt is on the hot seat, which doesn't look like anytime soon.

[Primer]

I was one of the biggest Casey detractors on this board, but seriously, he inherited a broken-down Griffin and low IQ Drummond as his franchise centerpieces, because SVG was way over his head as a GM. That roster needed a complete tear-down, which is happening now.

The bigger factor is that do you think ownership is going fire Casey early and pay him $7M per year to stay at home, and then have to pay another coach while that roster is still a bunch of young players and rookies who won't be in a position to win games for 3-4 years anyways? Nah... the Pistons newly hired GM needs to save that valuable "fire the coach" bullet for when his own butt is on the hot seat, which doesn't look like anytime soon.

So you think they will re-up Casey's contract? He'll be a lame duck at the end of next season and NBA teams are infinitely capable of eating a fired coach's salary for one year. I bet they'll bring in a fresh coach to lead their fresh young team to get their fanbase excited after so many miserable years of losing. Like Monty Williams being brought into coach Phoenix, or Doc Rivers being brought into Philly. The coach who endured the down years ALWAYS gets fired.

[KeonClark]

Dwane Casey is a "career coach" NHL's Darryl Sutter had a great quote last month and he was describing guys like Coach Case:

"What matters is how many games you've coached in the playoffs, how many you've won, and how many championships. That's what drives me. That's what I believe and honestly, there are guys that have coached for a long time - career coaches - and they've never won nothin'. I guess that's why they're career coaches."

[golden]

So you think they will re-up Casey's contract? He'll be a lame duck at the end of next season and NBA teams are infinitely capable of eating a fired coach's salary for one year. I bet they'll bring in a fresh coach to lead their fresh young team to get their fanbase excited after so many miserable years of losing. Like Monty Williams being brought into coach Phoenix, or Doc Rivers being brought into Philly. The coach who endured the down years ALWAYS gets fired.

My guess is that they will keep Casey until his contract runs out and the GM will try to make a splash by bringing in a modern, younger coach.... you know like a "Nick Nurse-type." Just getting an exciting young player in the draft will keep the heat off the GM for at least next season. And Casey will give that rookie tons of minutes, which is basically the only job he needs to do. As long as the rookie shows improvement by the end of the season, that will keep him safe to enter the last year of his contract.

And NBA teams are not "infinitely capable of eating $7M salaries". There was a report recently out of Sacramento, that the Kings want to fire Luke Walton, but since league revenues have been down the last 2 years, they are loathe to have to pay another coach, because they can't stretch the termination payment over a longer period of time. If Casey also negotiated a deal like that, then the Pistons could be in the same boat.

[golden]

Dwane Casey is a "career coach" NHL's Darryl Sutter had a great quote last month and he was describing guys like Coach Case:

Dwane Casey is the classic "kiss-up" company man. I lost all respect when he wore that Mavs championship ring in the post-game presser, after the Raps got swept by the Wizards. The message was clear: Not my fault.

[Primer]

My guess is that they will keep Casey until his contract runs out and the GM will try to make a splash by bringing in a modern, younger coach.... you know like a "Nick Nurse-type." Just getting an exciting young player in the draft will keep the heat off the GM for at least next season. And Casey will give that rookie tons of minutes, which is basically the only job he needs to do. As long as the rookie shows improvement by the end of the season, that will keep him safe to enter the last year of his contract.

And NBA teams are not "infinitely capable of eating $7M salaries". There was a report recently out of Sacramento, that the Kings want to fire Luke Walton, but since league revenues have been down the last 2 years, they are loathe to have to pay another coach, because they can't stretch the termination payment over a longer period of time. If Casey also negotiated a deal like that, then the Pistons could be in the same boat.

Tom Gores is worth $5.7 Billion. He wipes his ass with $7M and could fire Casey whenever he wants.

[DanH]

Whether they expect to win or not, firing a coach is a way for a GM to deflect blame for a season or two. If ownership starts getting impatient with the rebuild, Casey will be gone before the GM is.

[planetmars]

Blake Murphy wrote an interesting piece regarding Trent Jr's cap hold / qualifying offer. Here is the link for those who have a subscription:
https://theathletic.com/2573924/2021...g-offer-means/

With enough games starting, Trent J'rs cap hold went from $2.1M to about $4.7M. But if Trent's camp plays ball, they could withdraw the qualifying offer making him a UFA. If they do that his cap hold becomes the same as a 2-year vet minimum or around $1.7M. They can then resign him using his bird rights saving us about $3M in free agency.

But the downside of course is that this could turn into an ugly Carlos Boozer situation where they had a wink-wink deal with Cleveland and ended up leaving for Utah as a UFA. So we'd have to be very confident he's going to stick around in Toronto to do that.. he's with Klutch though, so who knows what will happen.

[inthepaint]

Out of this mess of a season, Raptors found almost out of nowhere 3 nice rotation pieces: Jalen Harris, Watanabe, and Paul Watson. 6'5" to 6'9" two-way wings, with pure 3pt shooting form, lengthy and energetic defensive chops and able to handle the ball well and take to the rim too.

[magoon]

Out of this mess of a season, Raptors found almost out of nowhere 3 nice rotation pieces: Jalen Harris, Watanabe, and Paul Watson. 6'5" to 6'9" two-way wings, with pure 3pt shooting form, lengthy and energetic defensive chops and able to handle the ball well and take to the rim too.

Not to downplay any of their achievements this year, but thus far only Yuta has shown signs of being able to find room in a standard 10-man rotation for the Raptors when everybody's healthy. Assuming Kyle leaves (and it's possible he won't!), any player who wants to make their way into that rotation has to find their way into: Pascal, OG, Fred, Malachi, GTJ, Boucher, Khem, Bembry, at least one first-round draft pick, and probably someone the Raptors sign in free agency.

Like, it's great that Jalen Harris, given minutes, can make shots. It's great that Watson can defend well. They're playing at the end of a weird season where they're getting a lot of opportunities against a lot of teams that are bad or resting.

[inthepaint]

Not to downplay any of their achievements this year, but thus far only Yuta has shown signs of being able to find room in a standard 10-man rotation for the Raptors when everybody's healthy. Assuming Kyle leaves (and it's possible he won't!), any player who wants to make their way into that rotation has to find their way into: Pascal, OG, Fred, Malachi, GTJ, Boucher, Khem, Bembry, at least one first-round draft pick, and probably someone the Raptors sign in free agency.

Like, it's great that Jalen Harris, given minutes, can make shots. It's great that Watson can defend well. They're playing at the end of a weird season where they're getting a lot of opportunities against a lot of teams that are bad or resting.

We need to see more of Harris and Watson to know for sure, but the potential impact they've shown on the limited minutes has been higher than bembry's. I like boucher and would like him to be back, but I feel he might be gone after this season along with bembry. Lowry also likely to move on.

All in all you're right in that they actually might not make the rotation because of the drafted players and free agency, but if you have players with that kind of length, shooting and defensive acumen not making the rotation that means the team is deep, and that's a good problem to have.

[GOLDBLUM]

I like boucher and would like him to be back, but I feel he might be gone after this season

This is the second time I’ve seen someone say this and it has me highly confused ... what makes you feel that way? Boucher’s pretty much a steal at 7mil on a team option, to my mind at least. I have trouble envisioning a circumstance under which they simply release him.

Are you predicting a trade, or what?

[inthepaint]

It's nothing concrete, more of a loose gut feeling based on 2 things:

1. They gave him a 2 yr deal but didn't guarantee the 2nd year, putting him on the same boat as bembry and baynes. I know he had a breakout season, but in the end it will come down to how dead-set the team will remain in saving cap space for this coming offseason. I wish it wasn't so anymore as there's no longer realistic FA targets worth this trouble, but they've been focusing on clearing the books for the "great summer of 2021" for years now, structured many deals and likely passed on a few good players to maintain this plan, so it makes you pause.

2. If they do end up guaranteeing him for his 2nd year at 7M, it puts him at that perfect bite-size contract that is movable and valuable as an expiring that could help grease up a deal for a high-end playoff scorer they need.

I hope they keep him though, I agree with you that Chris at 7M is a very good deal.

[GOLDBLUM]

It's nothing concrete, more of a loose gut feeling based on 2 things:

1. They gave him a 2 yr deal but didn't guarantee the 2nd year, putting him on the same boat as bembry and baynes. I know he had a breakout season, but in the end it will come down to how dead-set the team will remain in saving cap space for this coming offseason. I wish it wasn't so anymore as there's no longer realistic FA targets worth this trouble, but they've been focusing on clearing the books for the "great summer of 2021" for years now, structured many deals and likely passed on a few good players to maintain this plan, so it makes you pause.

2. If they do end up guaranteeing him for his 2nd year at 7M, it puts him at that perfect bite-size contract that is movable and valuable as an expiring that could help grease up a deal for a high-end playoff scorer they need.

I hope they keep him though, I agree with you that Chris at 7M is a very good deal.

Yeah, I feel like that plan you’re referring to is fully dead. No Giannis. No Gobert. I don’t see them sacrificing a great, reasonable contract with Bouch to bring in the hobbled shell of Oladipo (who *previously* they may have been considering for a max.) There’s just nobody worth spending that much money on. Unless they get in their time machine and bring back Demar to give him & Kyle one more chance. (Hard to see that transpiring though, for either party.)

And, respectfully, I’ve heard you beating that drum all year, (more than anybody else here), your resentment towards management with their plan to free up cap-space and how short-sighted or misguided you felt that was...

No part of me thinks Raps management is stubborn enough to stick to a plan once it’s clear that plan didn’t pan.

Thanks for clarifying, paint.
Myself, I think Bouch is back for sure.

(Though as you said, he could be a valuable trade chip on that contract, for sure. So they could always guarantee him and then trade him. That’s the only way I’d imagine we see Chris in another uniform next year.)

[inthepaint]

Yeah, I feel like that plan you’re referring to is fully dead. No Giannis. No Gobert. I don’t see them sacrificing a great, reasonable contract with Bouch to bring in the hobbled shell of Oladipo (who *previously* they may have been considering for a max.) There’s just nobody worth spending that much money on. Unless they get in their time machine and bring back Demar to give him & Kyle one more chance. (Hard to see that transpiring though, for either party.)

And, respectfully, I’ve heard you beating that drum all year, (more than anybody else here), your resentment towards management with their plan to free up cap-space and how short-sighted or misguided you felt that was...

No part of me thinks Raps management is stubborn enough to stick to a plan once it’s clear that plan didn’t pan.

Thanks for clarifying, paint.
Myself, I think Bouch is back for sure.

(Though as you said, he could be a valuable trade chip on that contract, for sure. So they could always guarantee him and then trade him. That’s the only way I’d imagine we see Chris in another uniform next year.)

You're not wrong on the bold. From very early on I thought that with the free agent track record we had, trying to pry out the league MVP out of the team that drafted him, could pay him more, and had a better record than us, was a bit of a fool's errand. But no sense in me harping on it anymore; when you look back, you gotta try to see it from the other perspective too: The FO felt they had a shot based on the connection with Masai, and given the caliber of the player and how impactful he would be here, it wasn't unreasonable to swing for it.

At least now they can say they tried that avenue, to bring a max FA by setting up everything right capwise and controlling what they could control, even though it didn't pan out. So I made my peace. The miss had a cost, but on the bright side the team can now start fresh with a lottery pick next year, hopefully back home.