I like the idea of chasing Collins or Markkenen, Let GTJ know we want to resign him as well, and then throw an offer sheet at one of those guys. I don't think Lowry is coming back...I suspect he's Miami bound.
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- Henry Ellenson has signed with Obradoiro CAB of the Spanish Liga ACB, per a team press release. Ellenson, the former 18th overall pick, played two games this season for the Raptors and was one of the leading scorers in the G League.
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Primer wrote: View Post
How significant an offer before they don't match? We would only have around $20M to play with. If we don't get Suggs and trade Lowry, Ball makes some sense.
Currently, Raps cap situation (assuming Lowry walks) is this:
Siakam, Fred, OG, Boucher, Watanabe, Watson Jr, Flynn
Plus cap holds for 4th pick and Trent Jr (starter QO of 4.7M)
For total cap hit of 93.7M and 18.7M in cap room. Assumes Bembry, Hood, Baynes are waived.
Waive Watson and Watanabe and can get to 20.2M. Waive (or trade) Boucher too and you can get to 26.3M in cap room.
The 18.7M can be leveraged into a 4 year offer for 80.4M (20.1M per year). That's the sort of offer they should be throwing at either of those guys, I would think. Could squeeze a larger offer if needed for Collins (Boucher mostly redundant in that case, for example).
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DanH wrote: View Post
Yep. Depending on who they land in the draft, if Lowry heads elsewhere and there is no real value in a sign and trade to be had, the Raps should throw their money at Collins or Ball to see if Atlanta or NOP blink. Both teams have made noise about not keeping all their talent.
Currently, Raps cap situation (assuming Lowry walks) is this:
Siakam, Fred, OG, Boucher, Watanabe, Watson Jr, Flynn
Plus cap holds for 4th pick and Trent Jr (starter QO of 4.7M)
For total cap hit of 93.7M and 18.7M in cap room. Assumes Bembry, Hood, Baynes are waived.
Waive Watson and Watanabe and can get to 20.2M. Waive (or trade) Boucher too and you can get to 26.3M in cap room.
The 18.7M can be leveraged into a 4 year offer for 80.4M (20.1M per year). That's the sort of offer they should be throwing at either of those guys, I would think. Could squeeze a larger offer if needed for Collins (Boucher mostly redundant in that case, for example).
Ball is eminently gettable. So is Holmes. If we're left with only cap those are my 2 targets depending on who we draft.
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Primer wrote: View Post
With the run they went on I'd be shocked if Atlanta is willing to let Collins go. They just had their most successful season since Dominique Wilkins was playing, so in a lot of their fans lifetimes. Collins played a huge huge part in that run and they'd go right back to mediocrity if they let him go.
Ball is eminently gettable. So is Holmes. If we're left with only cap those are my 2 targets depending on who we draft.
I'd sequence my preference as Collins, Ball, Holmes, assuming we are operating with cap room, and obviously depending on who they draft.
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DanH wrote: View Post
Yep. Depending on who they land in the draft, if Lowry heads elsewhere and there is no real value in a sign and trade to be had, the Raps should throw their money at Collins or Ball to see if Atlanta or NOP blink. Both teams have made noise about not keeping all their talent.
Currently, Raps cap situation (assuming Lowry walks) is this:
Siakam, Fred, OG, Boucher, Watanabe, Watson Jr, Flynn
Plus cap holds for 4th pick and Trent Jr (starter QO of 4.7M)
For total cap hit of 93.7M and 18.7M in cap room. Assumes Bembry, Hood, Baynes are waived.
Waive Watson and Watanabe and can get to 20.2M. Waive (or trade) Boucher too and you can get to 26.3M in cap room.
The 18.7M can be leveraged into a 4 year offer for 80.4M (20.1M per year). That's the sort of offer they should be throwing at either of those guys, I would think. Could squeeze a larger offer if needed for Collins (Boucher mostly redundant in that case, for example).
a) They withdraw their QO to Trent, making him an UFA (but keeping his Bird Rights), and reducing his cap hold from 4.7M to 1.7M, increasing the above cap space numbers by 3M.
b) Sign whatever other FA they are chasing with their available cap room, newly increased by 3M.
c) Sign Trent to the agreed contract, going over the cap to do so.
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DanH wrote: View Post
For the record, these numbers can also be improved by about 3M, if the Raptors do some cap gymnastics with Trent. If they come to an agreement with him early such that they just haven't actually signed the contract yet, and there's no danger of him signing elsewhere, they can sequence their official signings over the course of a few minutes such that:
a) They withdraw their QO to Trent, making him an UFA (but keeping his Bird Rights), and reducing his cap hold from 4.7M to 1.7M, increasing the above cap space numbers by 3M.
b) Sign whatever other FA they are chasing with their available cap room, newly increased by 3M.
c) Sign Trent to the agreed contract, going over the cap to do so.
Assuming we blow this roster up. We'd only have 4 guys on the roster (Pascal, Fred, OG, Flynn).. with the 5th being the rights to #4. And the 6th being Trent Jr's cap hold. So wouldn't you have to add 6 minimum roster charges (worth $925,258 each). Or about $5.5M as imaginary cap space?
If I do the math here:
Pascal - $33M
Fred - $19.7M
OG - $16M
Flynn - $2M
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$70.7M (- $112.4M = $41.7M)
#4 draft pick - $7.2M (incl the 120% bonus)
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$77.9M (- $112.4M = $34.5M)
Trent Jr's cap hold: $4.7M
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$82.6M (- $112.4M = $29.8M)
Add $5.5M in imaginary cap space for 6 minimum roster charges: $5.5M:
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$88.1M (- $112.4M = $24.3M)
So we should have $24.3M with just 6 guys on the roster. If we make Trent Jr a UFA we can get that up to $27.3M. But that's risky.
Or do we not have to worry about the minimum roster charges until after we sign our free agent?
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planetmars wrote: View Post
Wouldn't some of that cap room you calculated be jeopardized by minimum roster charges?
Assuming we blow this roster up. We'd only have 4 guys on the roster (Pascal, Fred, OG, Flynn).. with the 5th being the rights to #4. And the 6th being Trent Jr's cap hold. So wouldn't you have to add 6 minimum roster charges (worth $925,258 each). Or about $5.5M as imaginary cap space?
If I do the math here:
Pascal - $33M
Fred - $19.7M
OG - $16M
Flynn - $2M
---------
$70.7M (- $112.4M = $41.7M)
#4 draft pick - $7.2M (incl the 120% bonus)
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$77.9M (- $112.4M = $34.5M)
Trent Jr's cap hold: $4.7M
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$82.6M (- $112.4M = $29.8M)
Add $5.5M in imaginary cap space for 6 minimum roster charges: $5.5M:
-------
$88.1M (- $112.4M = $24.3M)
So we should have $24.3M with just 6 guys on the roster. If we make Trent Jr a UFA we can get that up to $27.3M. But that's risky.
Or do we not have to worry about the minimum roster charges until after we sign our free agent?
The Trent Jr gambit is less risky than I had initially thought, it can essentially be a paper transaction where he's a UFA for mere moments.
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DanH wrote: View Post
My numbers had minimum roster spot charges in there. Did it quick and dirty, could be I made an error. I'll check again later.
The Trent Jr gambit is less risky than I had initially thought, it can essentially be a paper transaction where he's a UFA for mere moments.
As for the risk.. well it didn't pan out for Cleveland and Boozer back in the day
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planetmars wrote: View Post
Okay cool.. yeah I thought we had $18M with Trent's RFA cap hold (if we kept Boucher). So when you had it at $20M I had to crunch my own numbers again.
As for the risk.. well it didn't pan out for Cleveland and Boozer back in the day
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planetmars wrote: View Post
Okay cool.. yeah I thought we had $18M with Trent's RFA cap hold (if we kept Boucher). So when you had it at $20M I had to crunch my own numbers again.
As for the risk.. well it didn't pan out for Cleveland and Boozer back in the day
Keeping Fred, OG, Pascal, Flynn, Boucher, 4th pick, Trent's rights, $18.3M in cap room. Goes to $21.4M if we do the shenanigans with Trent.
Drop Boucher and it becomes $24.4M in room, and up to $27.5M with the Trent shenanigans.
Worth noting those amounts work out to, assuming a 4 year offer:
$18.3M => 4/78.7M, 19.7M AAV
$21.4M => 4/92.0M, 23.0M AAV
$24.4M => 4/104.9M, 26.2M AAV
$27.5M => 4/118.3M, 29.6M AAV
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DanH wrote: View Post
Their owner literally had a public quote right after their playoffs ended about how they won't be able to keep all their talent this summer. I wouldn't write off that possibility.
I'd sequence my preference as Collins, Ball, Holmes, assuming we are operating with cap room, and obviously depending on who they draft.
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Primer wrote: View Post
I don't interpret won't be able to keep everyone as let Collins walk for nothing. If you're suggesting we go for Collins via trade then that may be possible.
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John Collins would be a nice get, but we would be committing to a small ball line up. OG and Pascal actually have a taller standing reach than Collins, I guess you would play a position less frontcourt which would be great for switching.
I would still want to keep Birch, he flourished in our system and is worth keeping. We would still need a big body on the cheap though. Collins and Birch would get eaten up against the big guys.
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