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Everything 22021-22 Free Agency

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  • #16
    Masai and Bobby already did their homework on a Kyle S&T. That was what the deadline was all about. I don't really see how offers improve over the summer, if teams weren't interested in having Kyle for one more playoff round. Plus it was easier to shed some cap ballast then compared to in the summer. Teams won't be able to trade expiring contracts, but could have at the deadline. LAL and Philly won't have dead cap to trade since they are both capped out teams.

    I think he's coming back.. and maybe they try to flip him again next deadline or next summer. But I'm okay with him back. He can play 50 games a year and playoffs. And be a player coach / mentor. The cap space is not something we can punt because Trent is going to get paid, which would turn us into a capped out team next year even if Boucher walks.

    I hate chasing an RFA because you have to really over pay for them to not have their incumbent team match. And I like Markkanen but not at a max type of deal. Same with Collins. But we can only offer about $28M and that is only if Boucher walks. That's basically a max contract. I don't think either are worthy of that. None of the other UFA's are big difference makers. Richaun Holmes would be an upgrade to Birch.. but maybe not by much. Birch can at least hit the corner 3. Besides I suspect we'll draft a big with one of our 3 picks.

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    • #17
      G__Deane wrote: View Post
      Other than that arrangement is likely highly illegal .... it's why Ballmer can't (officially) be paying Kawhi $1M a year but hire him to pitch Windows for $35M
      Udonis Haslem is 40 and got paid a couple million this year from Miami despite playing less than a hundred minutes, the same as he did the two previous seasons (when he had negative win shares), and everybody knows it's because he took a pay cut in 2010 so the Heat could sign LeBron and Bosh. Promises of future contracts aren't technically illegal, because promises aren't binding, and if the Raptors want to promise Kyle a future job in the organization - which just be smart anyway - that's not gonna get anybody's pants in a twist.

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      • #18
        What was Lowry looking for in his next contract, wasn't it in the $25M neighbourhood?

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        • #19
          LJ2 wrote: View Post
          What was Lowry looking for in his next contract, wasn't it in the $25M neighbourhood?
          I suspect in the range of 20-25M is about right. Like 20Mx3 or 25Mx2 sorta thing. But who knows what Lowry's personal expectations are.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #20
            We sometimes lose sight of this but other than the likely resigning free agents (Kawhi, CP, Conley) who is the best free agent out there for all the money we would have if Kyle left? It says here that it’s Kyle Lowry. If he wants to stay, I think he’ll be back.

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            • #21
              Jclaw wrote: View Post
              We sometimes lose sight of this but other than the likely resigning free agents (Kawhi, CP, Conley) who is the best free agent out there for all the money we would have if Kyle left? It says here that it’s Kyle Lowry. If he wants to stay, I think he’ll be back.
              Everybody here has already packed Kyles bags.. I, like you, am not so certain he leaves
              It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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              • #22
                Kyle would make a pretty great 6th man, and would give us one of the top point guard rotations in the league...

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                • #23
                  KeonClark wrote: View Post

                  Everybody here has already packed Kyles bags.. I, like you, am not so certain he leaves
                  I believe he's gone if he can get a deal done with Miami or Philly. If they don't want or can't fit him in, it will be presented as a win for the Raptors (and may well be) if he comes back on a 20-25/2 year deal.

                  Attracting a free agent and all that

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                  • #24
                    Primer wrote: View Post
                    I love Lowry but it makes no fucking sense to bring him back unless we're trading FVV, and even then it's a super short term play as Lowry doesn't fit age wise with the rest of the roster and he will start to decline soon, perhaps precipitously.

                    Do you guys seriously want to play midget basketball again, force Trent to come off the bench, give Flynn zero playing time, and just expect adding Birch at C to turn this year's team into a contender during Lowry's few remaining productive years?

                    If we move FVV for a package that makes us contenders next season then sure, but if not we need a S&T or to use our cap space on pieces that fit better moving forward.

                    Assuming a resigned Lowry will somehow have increased trade value vs what his value was this season or a S&T this off-season is just nonsense in my opinion.
                    lowry signing is fine to either trade him in the season or to trade FVV as you said ... the issue with lowry is he took a step back defensively this year and will continue next year.. now he plays at such a high level and his IQ is so good that his slippage aren't so massive but that decline will continue.

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                    • #25
                      DanH wrote: View Post

                      The two PG look works just fine, even great, so yes. Trent coming off the bench? Probably where he is best used, like Norm, in theory, so long as he doesn't end up the sort to HAVE to start, like Norm... Flynn zero playing time? Why the heck would that be the case? He should have gotten 20 a night all season this year with FVV and Lowry playing, and has shown enough to get that next year for sure. Adding Birch at C made a big difference. Certainly "make the playoffs, maybe home court" sort of difference when they get home court back and don't have COVID.

                      If there's a home run SnT option for Lowry, sure. If there's a star to sign with our cap space, sure. I doubt either is the case (though the SnT one is possible). And yes, Lowry could well have more trade value if he's on a lower cap hit contract after re-signing (he's not getting 30M again...) and now that the Raps have shown they'll call your bluff.

                      The cap room option is there for if Lowry decides to walk to a team with cap room. Re-signing him is likely plan A, sign and trade plan B, and cap room plan C. Masai and Bobby have done a good job to have multiple viable options in place, make no mistake, but Lowry remains the highest impact player available to the Raps this summer.
                      We have 96 minutes for PG and SG per game. How the hell do you give Flynn 20 minutes per game? That leaves 76 minutes to split between Lowry, FVV, and Trent. Sorry but those 3 need just about every minute at PG/SG if we bring Lowry back and Flynn won't play at all, which is exactly what we saw this season when everyone was healthy and Norm was in Trents spot.

                      The two PG look with Lowry and FVV only worked when we had Kahwi and Gasol. It was objectively terrible this season. It won't be any better next season with Birch at C.

                      Sorry but bringing Lowry back is just guaranteeing a mediocre season with the huge risk that Lowry starts to decline and becomes a dead weight contract. If it's a multi year deal we could be really screwed like we were with Demarre Carroll. I'd much rather sell high on Lowry now or let him walk. It's a pipe dream to assume Lowry at $25M for 2 years is going to bring a better return than what is offered this off-season in S&T. He's not getting $30M again but he's also not gonna accept very much less than that.

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                      • #26
                        planetmars wrote: View Post
                        Masai and Bobby already did their homework on a Kyle S&T. That was what the deadline was all about. I don't really see how offers improve over the summer, if teams weren't interested in having Kyle for one more playoff round. Plus it was easier to shed some cap ballast then compared to in the summer. Teams won't be able to trade expiring contracts, but could have at the deadline. LAL and Philly won't have dead cap to trade since they are both capped out teams.

                        I think he's coming back.. and maybe they try to flip him again next deadline or next summer. But I'm okay with him back. He can play 50 games a year and playoffs. And be a player coach / mentor. The cap space is not something we can punt because Trent is going to get paid, which would turn us into a capped out team next year even if Boucher walks.

                        I hate chasing an RFA because you have to really over pay for them to not have their incumbent team match. And I like Markkanen but not at a max type of deal. Same with Collins. But we can only offer about $28M and that is only if Boucher walks. That's basically a max contract. I don't think either are worthy of that. None of the other UFA's are big difference makers. Richaun Holmes would be an upgrade to Birch.. but maybe not by much. Birch can at least hit the corner 3. Besides I suspect we'll draft a big with one of our 3 picks.
                        Unless we draft Mobley it will be a 2nd round big who will be in the G League not playing meaningful minutes for the Raptors.

                        I think we can use the cap space on a few high upside signings or use it to absorb salary and get some picks facilitating deals for other teams. I also think Holmes is a lot better than Birch and would like to sign him if the price is right.

                        Basically looking for anything forward thinking, the Lowry era was awesome but it's run its course.

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                        • #27
                          Primer wrote: View Post

                          We have 96 minutes for PG and SG per game. How the hell do you give Flynn 20 minutes per game? That leaves 76 minutes to split between Lowry, FVV, and Trent. Sorry but those 3 need just about every minute at PG/SG if we bring Lowry back and Flynn won't play at all, which is exactly what we saw this season when everyone was healthy and Norm was in Trents spot.

                          The two PG look with Lowry and FVV only worked when we had Kahwi and Gasol. It was objectively terrible this season. It won't be any better next season with Birch at C.

                          Sorry but bringing Lowry back is just guaranteeing a mediocre season with the huge risk that Lowry starts to decline and becomes a dead weight contract. If it's a multi year deal we could be really screwed like we were with Demarre Carroll. I'd much rather sell high on Lowry now or let him walk. It's a pipe dream to assume Lowry at $25M for 2 years is going to bring a better return than what is offered this off-season in S&T. He's not getting $30M again but he's also not gonna accept very much less than that.
                          Birch, Lowry and VanVleet have a +20 net rating in ~100 minutes played together.

                          Heck, VanVleet, Lowry and Baynes managed a slightly positive net rating in spite of Baynes overall having a -5 net rating.

                          The Raptors had 9 pairs of players who played together at least 700 minutes.

                          In order, from best on-court net rating to worst:

                          Lowry and OG: +6.0
                          Lowry and FVV: +5.8
                          Powell and FVV: +4.8
                          FVV and OG: +4.3
                          Lowry and Siakam: +3.9
                          OG and Siakam: +3.2
                          FVV and Siakam: +2.9
                          Powell and Siakam: +1.8
                          Powell and Lowry: -1.4

                          Yeah, that FVV/Lowry pairing sure looks like the weak link.

                          Trent can play the 3 in bench units as well (though is not a starting quality wing IMO, just like Norm). We're not limited to playing him only at SG. Again, just like Powell. Flynn didn't play because Nurse didn't trust him, not because there was no spot for him.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • #28
                            DanH wrote: View Post

                            Birch, Lowry and VanVleet have a +20 net rating in ~100 minutes played together.

                            Heck, VanVleet, Lowry and Baynes managed a slightly positive net rating in spite of Baynes overall having a -5 net rating.

                            The Raptors had 9 pairs of players who played together at least 700 minutes.

                            In order, from best on-court net rating to worst:

                            Lowry and OG: +6.0
                            Lowry and FVV: +5.8
                            Powell and FVV: +4.8
                            FVV and OG: +4.3
                            Lowry and Siakam: +3.9
                            OG and Siakam: +3.2
                            FVV and Siakam: +2.9
                            Powell and Siakam: +1.8
                            Powell and Lowry: -1.4

                            Yeah, that FVV/Lowry pairing sure looks like the weak link.

                            Trent can play the 3 in bench units as well (though is not a starting quality wing IMO, just like Norm). We're not limited to playing him only at SG. Again, just like Powell. Flynn didn't play because Nurse didn't trust him, not because there was no spot for him.
                            You know there is a 90% chance we draft a wing right? A very good chance it's a PG/SG as well. Will there be any minutes for them? Nope.

                            Also Trent at SF makes us even tinier.

                            There just isn't any realistic way for everyone to get minutes if Lowry comes back, Flynn and the 1st round pick would have very little to no playing time.

                            ​​​​​​I'm also very surprised no one is concerned about signing Lowry to a multi year deal over $20M per year at his age. For where we are we need to get younger and look to the future. Lowry needs to contend for a title next season because it's likely his last truly productive season and we're not gonna be real contenders next year. It just makes way more sense for Lowry and the Raptors to move on from each other.
                            ​​

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                            • #29
                              Primer wrote: View Post

                              You know there is a 90% chance we draft a wing right? A very good chance it's a PG/SG as well. Will there be any minutes for them? Nope.

                              Also Trent at SF makes us even tinier.

                              There just isn't any realistic way for everyone to get minutes if Lowry comes back, Flynn and the 1st round pick would have very little to no playing time.

                              ​​​​​​I'm also very surprised no one is concerned about signing Lowry to a multi year deal over $20M per year at his age. For where we are we need to get younger and look to the future. Lowry needs to contend for a title next season because it's likely his last truly productive season and we're not gonna be real contenders next year. It just makes way more sense for Lowry and the Raptors to move on from each other.
                              ​​
                              Trent will play some at SG and some at SF. It's nothing new to have small-ish scoring wings off the bench. Meanwhile, our size issues this year had nothing to do with the wings and guards, we didn't have a single viable center most of the year.

                              The 1st round pick obviously plays into things in an unpredictable way. But that completely depends on their position, and how much they are a project vs ready to go. Hey, if we get into the top 4 and draft a blue chipper who needs NBA minutes immediately, that's just a great problem to have to solve.

                              I'm sure they'll be pushing Lowry to sign a 2 year deal rather than a 3 year deal for just that reason. Lowry has needed to contend for a title because it's likely his last productive year for a few years now.

                              Lowry leaving is very much a possibility. Until we know what options are out there for him, it is very hard to say what makes the most sense for him. Until we know what SnT or free agent options there are for us, it's hard to say what makes the most sense for us.

                              I doubt the Raptors are shutting the door on any of the three options (re-sign Lowry, sign and trade Lowry, let Lowry walk to use cap room), and as such it would be silly of us to do so.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                              • #30
                                Jclaw wrote: View Post
                                We sometimes lose sight of this but other than the likely resigning free agents (Kawhi, CP, Conley) who is the best free agent out there for all the money we would have if Kyle left? It says here that it’s Kyle Lowry. If he wants to stay, I think he’ll be back.
                                You are correct. Lowry has been the best movable free agent of the 2021 class for a while now. Our big 2021 free agent signing will be our own guy. Question is, does he stay after the signing or is there are trade after for a pick or prospect? That's the real unknown.

                                2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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