Pacers @ Raptors - Sunday, May 16 @ 1PM

[DanH]

Last year is yesterday's news. Other teams improved more than we did. We keep forgetting to account for that.

Using net rating (which is what we are talking about here), no, they didn't (in the context of those 4, obviously our depth absolutely died a terrible death and that killed us, among other things). It's not like there are a bunch more teams that suddenly clobber the opposition more so than last year. If it was just that the league is suddenly better while our best players stood still (which is a very weird lens to look through), our 4-man combo would have seen their effectiveness fall off a cliff, not improve.

Top 10 teams in net rating, 2019-20:

+9.4
+6.3
+6.3
+6.1
+5.6
+4.8
+2.7
+2.7
+2.5
+2.3

Top 10 teams in net rating, 2020-21:

+9.0
+6.1
+5.9
+5.8
+5.5
+4.8
+4.2
+2.9
+2.4
+2.3

The problem is that the minutes we played without our best players together were complete disasters this year, versus successes last year, and that we had a lot more of those minutes than last year. You know, the Stanley Johnson effect.

[golden]

Using net rating (which is what we are talking about here), no, they didn't (in the context of those 4, obviously our depth absolutely died a terrible death and that killed us, among other things). It's not like there are a bunch more teams that suddenly clobber the opposition more so than last year. If it was just that the league is suddenly better while our best players stood still (which is a very weird lens to look through), our 4-man combo would have seen their effectiveness fall off a cliff, not improve.

Top 10 teams in net rating, 2019-20:

+9.4
+6.3
+6.3
+6.1
+5.6
+4.8
+2.7
+2.7
+2.5
+2.3

Top 10 teams in net rating, 2020-21:

+9.0
+6.1
+5.9
+5.8
+5.5
+4.8
+4.2
+2.9
+2.4
+2.3

The problem is that the minutes we played without our best players together were complete disasters this year, versus successes last year, and that we had a lot more of those minutes than last year. You know, the Stanley Johnson effect.

That's a silly cherry pick... why don't we compare other team's top 4-man units? More importantly.... no team can play their best players together 48 minutes. Harden, Kyrie and Durant barely played any games together this year, but Brooklyn still finished top 2 and close to 1st overall. Well, ok... Nurse does try to play Lowry, FVV and Pascal 40 MPG, with the the predictable injuries allowing them to "rest" and keep "total minutes" down.

That's the whole point of developing a deep bench and rotation combinations that makes sense. Nobody is forcing Nurse to play Stanley/Bembry/Baynes and Yuta together as a bench mob unit. Flynn could have easily gotten development minutes right out of training camp... especially considering the 2-8 start. Oshae and Alize got cut in camp and they could have been useful bench pieces. Len showed he wasn't as a bad people made him out to be. Davis took a step backwards, but there are probably other reasons why they didn't really try to invest in him.

And, at some point, your highest paid players need to learn how to elevate bench/role players, like Lowry+Bench did for years.

[S.R.]

Another factor is the absence of Gasol. As much as 'win his minutes' became a bit of a joke and it was painful to watch him pass up open shots in the bubble, the net rating of the core guys basically doubled when you put Gasol in their lineups last year. Bumping up to +12.6-14.6 net ratings in 1,474 combined minutes (that's 30 full games!) just by throwing Gasol on the floor with 3+ of the other core guys is no joke. There were zero 4 man lineups that hit a net rating that high this year - Gasol made that happen with 3 different lineups last year (4-man - start to get really small sample sizes with 5-man lineups, didn't even have one at 200+ minutes this season).

The team still had depth last year is the thing. Easy to win lineup combinations when you have good players in the lineups. Pretty tough when you're trying to make half an NBA roster (or less, depending who was out) work. The team was just short on talent this year, plain and simple.

[planetmars]

Raptors need depth before we can proclaim they'll be back. Birch is a passable big, and Gillie tries hard, but the center spot is still a weakness. Boucher has been a surprise but after him our depth has been ravaged.

I'm a fan of Harris and I think Flynn will be okay (Wright like). Yuta is fine. Trent Jr has been a mixed bag. But we need way more. Definitely have to get rid of Baynes, Hood, Stanimal. Even Bembry should go. The guy is a walking turnover. Watson is usually invisible so not helpful really.

Really can't miss out on our free agent signings this summer. Even if Lowry stays we have a mid level and biannual exception to use. If Lowry walks we have cap space, and the room mid level (but we'll need to find a way to replace his production). Plus 3 draft picks. But assuming the new picks won't help (even a top 1 draft pick takes a year and a bit to adjust to the NBA), we can't strike out in free agency like we normally do.

[inthepaint]

Raptors need depth before we can proclaim they'll be back. Birch is a passable big, and Gillie tries hard, but the center spot is still a weakness. Boucher has been a surprise but after him our depth has been ravaged.

I'm a fan of Harris and I think Flynn will be okay (Wright like). Yuta is fine. Trent Jr has been a mixed bag. But we need way more. Definitely have to get rid of Baynes, Hood, Stanimal. Even Bembry should go. The guy is a walking turnover. Watson is usually invisible so not helpful really.

Really can't miss out on our free agent signings this summer. Even if Lowry stays we have a mid level and biannual exception to use. If Lowry walks we have cap space, and the room mid level (but we'll need to find a way to replace his production). Plus 3 draft picks. But assuming the new picks won't help (even a top 1 draft pick takes a year and a bit to adjust to the NBA), we can't strike out in free agency like we normally do.

What's your ideal move in free agency?

[planetmars]

What's your ideal move in free agency?

I hope Kyle comes back. And so what we'll have left is the full mid level ($9.5M) and the biannual exception (about $4M).

I'd use the biannual on Birch.

As for the mid-level I would want some veteran bench depth that can also play multiple positions. I guess Kelly Olynyk would be on my short list for MLE type of candidates. He can play C or PF. Could play SF if we wanted to go big since he can space the floor. And he's a fellow Canadian so might want to come here willingly. He's also a vet and is still only 30 (so won't have Baynes-itis). Nerlens Noel would be great but I think NY brings him back since they have so much cap space (they only have his early bird rights I believe). Tony Snell can get us some elite shooting (assuming last year wasn't an aberration for him). I mean he shot 57% from 3 with Atlanta this year.

I'd have a better idea as to what we need after our draft picks are selected I guess.

[Jclaw]

was too busy watching to post...whoever hogged the ball preventing Flynn from joining the 30pt club should be automatically off the roster next year (not a bold call as much of that group won't be back). A bit sad to see an end of an era but really it's more like taking a gap year than Old Yeller.

[Jclaw]

Raptors need depth before we can proclaim they'll be back. Birch is a passable big, and Gillie tries hard, but the center spot is still a weakness. Boucher has been a surprise but after him our depth has been ravaged.

I'm a fan of Harris and I think Flynn will be okay (Wright like). Yuta is fine. Trent Jr has been a mixed bag. But we need way more. Definitely have to get rid of Baynes, Hood, Stanimal. Even Bembry should go. The guy is a walking turnover. Watson is usually invisible so not helpful really.

Really can't miss out on our free agent signings this summer. Even if Lowry stays we have a mid level and biannual exception to use. If Lowry walks we have cap space, and the room mid level (but we'll need to find a way to replace his production). Plus 3 draft picks. But assuming the new picks won't help (even a top 1 draft pick takes a year and a bit to adjust to the NBA), we can't strike out in free agency like we normally do.

I think there may be a place for him on a minimum contract. He's a walking turnover when he has to lead the offence with 4 sub bench guys. When he's the 5th option, he gets into open spots well, plays some defence and can handle the ball enough to let Fred on Malachi play off ball

[DanH]

That's a silly cherry pick... why don't we compare other team's top 4-man units? More importantly.... no team can play their best players together 48 minutes. Harden, Kyrie and Durant barely played any games together this year, but Brooklyn still finished top 2 and close to 1st overall. Well, ok... Nurse does try to play Lowry, FVV and Pascal 40 MPG, with the the predictable injuries allowing them to "rest" and keep "total minutes" down.

That's the whole point of developing a deep bench and rotation combinations that makes sense. Nobody is forcing Nurse to play Stanley/Bembry/Baynes and Yuta together as a bench mob unit. Flynn could have easily gotten development minutes right out of training camp... especially considering the 2-8 start. Oshae and Alize got cut in camp and they could have been useful bench pieces. Len showed he wasn't as a bad people made him out to be. Davis took a step backwards, but there are probably other reasons why they didn't really try to invest in him.

And, at some point, your highest paid players need to learn how to elevate bench/role players, like Lowry+Bench did for years.

Huh? We were just saying that the drop off in terms of success did not happen because our top players were suddenly losing their minutes, they weren't. The problem wasn't that the rest of the league got better while we stood still. The problem was the league is always good, and we allowed our C position and depth to be ripped to shreds in the offseason (and then Nick found the worst way to use what depth we had).

[DanH]

I think there may be a place for him on a minimum contract. He's a walking turnover when he has to lead the offence with 4 sub bench guys. When he's the 5th option, he gets into open spots well, plays some defence and can handle the ball enough to let Fred on Malachi play off ball

He's already locked into a minimum contract for next year (unguaranteed). Suspect they keep him on that unless they end up going the cap space route and need every last cent to chase a particular target.

[S.R.]

I hope Kyle comes back. And so what we'll have left is the full mid level ($9.5M) and the biannual exception (about $4M).

I'd use the biannual on Birch.

As for the mid-level I would want some veteran bench depth that can also play multiple positions. I guess Kelly Olynyk would be on my short list for MLE type of candidates. He can play C or PF. Could play SF if we wanted to go big since he can space the floor. And he's a fellow Canadian so might want to come here willingly. He's also a vet and is still only 30 (so won't have Baynes-itis). Nerlens Noel would be great but I think NY brings him back since they have so much cap space (they only have his early bird rights I believe). Tony Snell can get us some elite shooting (assuming last year wasn't an aberration for him). I mean he shot 57% from 3 with Atlanta this year.

I'd have a better idea as to what we need after our draft picks are selected I guess.

Honestly I'm still mostly hoping they can sign and trade Lowry for good pieces, or sign him and explore trades next season (there'd likely need to be some mutual understanding on either scenario) because I think the depth issue is huge. Two years ago the depth guys were FVV and Powell and Ibaka and OG and this year they were Boucher and Bembry and Watanabe and that is just a huge, huge drop off.

[slaw]

Honestly I'm still mostly hoping they can sign and trade Lowry for good pieces, or sign him and explore trades next season (there'd likely need to be some mutual understanding on either scenario) because I think the depth issue is huge. Two years ago the depth guys were FVV and Powell and Ibaka and OG and this year they were Boucher and Bembry and Watanabe and that is just a huge, huge drop off.

Not sure trading a dollar for 4 quarters (or in this case probably a quarter and a nickel) does all that much. Depth will sort itself out. Flynn is being brought along (clearly in accordance with a plan) and Harris looks okay in limited minutes. Trent is a more than capable sixth man if Lowry comes back. Add a first rounder and a free agent up front and that's a 10-man group not including Boucher or Birch or Gillespie.

For me, the bigger issue is whether FVV/OG/Siakam/ can carry the load for 82 games and, given that they couldn't do it for 62 games, that is more of a concern than who the backup SF is going to be in game 43. Just don't trust the finishing ability of those guys right now and not sure that they have the requisite firepower for the NBA in 2022 and, no, I don't care what artificial, aggregated 3-man or 4-man net ratings are for them.

It certainly seems management is committed to the new core and it might even be foolish to re-think things overly much given this season's oddities but it just feels to me as though Raptorland is comforting itself that adding some backups and a replacement level center is going to right the ship. I'm not as confident.

[S.R.]

Not sure trading a dollar for 4 quarters (or in this case probably a quarter and a nickel) does all that much. Depth will sort itself out. Flynn is being brought along (clearly in accordance with a plan) and Harris looks okay in limited minutes. Trent is a more than capable sixth man if Lowry comes back. Add a first rounder and a free agent up front and that's a 10-man group not including Boucher or Birch or Gillespie.

For me, the bigger issue is whether FVV/OG/Siakam/ can carry the load for 82 games and, given that they couldn't do it for 62 games, that is more of a concern than who the backup SF is going to be in game 43. Just don't trust the finishing ability of those guys right now and not sure that they have the requisite firepower for the NBA in 2022 and, no, I don't care what artificial, aggregated 3-man or 4-man net ratings are for them.

It certainly seems management is committed to the new core and it might even be foolish to re-think things overly much given this season's oddities but it just feels to me as though Raptorland is comforting itself that adding some backups and a replacement level center is going to right the ship. I'm not as confident.

I don't think right the ship entirely, just the next (and most doable) step. Flynn & GTJ are pretty young and need to develop. OG can take a step. FVV and Siakam are prime years age but both still with evolving games. So yeah they'll be hoping for internal talent to improve but they also just need a couple guys who are better than the Gillespie/Bembry/Watanabe level. They're just depending on too many guys at that level to be a serious team right now. A McCaw or two okay, but not half your team.

The issue of finishing games is also the issue of the team not having a true top player, even if they fix some depth issues. That's a remaining challenge, without getting to that they still have a ceiling of a good second round (like last year) or best case scenario third round team (admittedly quite optimistic). I don't think Lowry gets them a top player, I do think he could help them get some depth.

[slaw]

I don't think right the ship entirely, just the next (and most doable) step. Flynn & GTJ are pretty young and need to develop. OG can take a step. FVV and Siakam are prime years age but both still with evolving games. So yeah they'll be hoping for internal talent to improve but they also just need a couple guys who are better than the Gillespie/Bembry/Watanabe level. They're just depending on too many guys at that level to be a serious team right now. A McCaw or two okay, but not half your team.

The issue of finishing games is also the issue of the team not having a true top player, even if they fix some depth issues. That's a remaining challenge, without getting to that they still have a ceiling of a good second round (like last year) or best case scenario third round team (admittedly quite optimistic). I don't think Lowry gets them a top player, I do think he could help them get some depth.

Agreed that adding depth is the simplest and easiest next step. Honestly, this front office has built up a lot of goodwill in creating both a perennial playoff team and a champion, so my confidence in their ability to read the situation and take the proper steps.is quite high. They could justifiably make a few tweaks, add some depth, shore up the 5-spot and forge ahead with this core another year and that would be a very defensible route to take. Alternatively, they could take some risks without doing a lot of long-term damage.

I heard Lewenberg going on about how this was the most important offseason in Raptors history (he did walk that back after he said it) but that doesn't seem right to me. This doesn't feel like a terribly important offseason, though it might be very interesting. Probably the biggest issue is Ujiri's return, which is no small thing but doesn't call for the rending of garments.