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Mamba Mentality
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golden wrote: View Post
Not really amazing when you consider that the 2019 Finals ratings were a 19% decline from 2018. Americans didn’t care about the Raptors… they wanted to see KD/Steph vs Lebron, part X. They did, however, want to see the hated Warriors lose, so the Raps were America’s team in that regard.
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Primer wrote: View Post
Yeah people are complicating this when it's simple. The bubble season sucked and fans lost interest. This season started out similarly with no fans but has been slowly building back interest in the NBA but we're not back to prior levels yet. Next season will probably get back to 2019 levels of interest.
Anyway, the ratings are awful right now for the Finals and if I can’t imagine there isn’t some concern in NY given the tv deals they want going forward.
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slaw wrote: View Post
We will see. Is it transitory or were different habits formed? Is this the bottom of a decade long decline, part of larger viewing trends or is it something the NBA is doing?
Anyway, the ratings are awful right now for the Finals and if I can’t imagine there isn’t some concern in NY given the tv deals they want going forward.
Unless franchise valuations start to go down, it’s still the land of milk and honey, because global eyeballs are growing. Americans aren’t the only ones with disposable income these days and brands are always eyeing new growth markets, for better or worse.
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golden wrote: View Post
Nielsen ratings are archaic. I mean, they don’t even capture Canada, much less the rest of the world. What the NBA, the networks and advertisers are trying to figure out is how to quantify & monetize the explosive growth in global viewing due to illegal streams. That has major value to global brands who have the biggest advertising budgets. It’s basically like free TV back in the day, but broadcasted all over the world.
Unless franchise valuations start to go down, it’s still the land of milk and honey, because global eyeballs are growing. Americans aren’t the only ones with disposable income these days and brands are always eyeing new growth markets, for better or worse.
The problem is they only want to count the older gen' X'ers and boomers watching it live on CBS in the States alone. No wonder it looks shaky. Find a way to count and monetize the way people actually consume entertainment these days: global streaming, legal and underground (at the time of day people are willing and able to watch), and they'll see the overall engagement is higher than ever.
It's interesting because the league spent a lot of time and effort to spread globally, and now that they're succeeding, they're finding themselves held hostage to the ancient/outdated oligarch world of american cable tv. There's a ton of opportunity but they gotta get out of the 90's here.
I'm sure it's been thought about for years, and it's easier said than done, but the NBA needs to move to a Netflix model where content is produced and delivered directly to subscribers without a middleman:
1. Have a stable, non glitchy app in 4K (where connections permit), with no geoblocking/blackout bullshit, that can also be projected to bigger screens
2. Hire commentators (former players, sportsbloggers etc..), to produce your own basketball shows on the app, live and archived (like the ones with Shaq and Chuck)
3. Have fresh, niche content in the offseason (draft talk, free agency, trade buzz etc...), that stuff sometimes generates more engagement than some actual games
4. If you must, have your own non-intrusive high quality advertisement built in on the app that people can engage.
5. Charge something equivalent to $20-$30 month for that worldwide for individuals, have some form of business plan for sportsbars/events, and watch the revenue roll in.
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golden wrote: View Post
Nielsen ratings are archaic. I mean, they don’t even capture Canada, much less the rest of the world. What the NBA, the networks and advertisers are trying to figure out is how to quantify & monetize the explosive growth in global viewing due to illegal streams. That has major value to global brands who have the biggest advertising budgets. It’s basically like free TV back in the day, but broadcasted all over the world.
Unless franchise valuations start to go down, it’s still the land of milk and honey, because global eyeballs are growing. Americans aren’t the only ones with disposable income these days and brands are always eyeing new growth markets, for better or worse.
When Jordan left they went through a lull and changed a bunch of stuff to improve the game, which high they rode for 15 years. Now, they are in a viewership lull again for a variety of reasons, only some of which are out of their control. Not sure why NBA fans get so defensive about it or don't want to admit that maybe load management, unhappy stars, meaningless regular seasons (as they tell us themselves), the aesthetics of the game with all the threes, the politics, etc., have hurt them. Yeah, they can't control the fact people have a lot more options than 30 years ago but surely that doesn't mean you can't improve your own product if there are issues.
Yeah, they are going to get big tv deals cause sports are differentiated content that lots of people watch that you can sell ads on, so they are in high demand, but that's not going to be an endless trajectory of exponentially increasing dollars (just ask the EPL).
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golden wrote: View Post
Nielsen ratings are archaic. I mean, they don’t even capture Canada, much less the rest of the world. What the NBA, the networks and advertisers are trying to figure out is how to quantify & monetize the explosive growth in global viewing due to illegal streams. That has major value to global brands who have the biggest advertising budgets. It’s basically like free TV back in the day, but broadcasted all over the world.
Unless franchise valuations start to go down, it’s still the land of milk and honey, because global eyeballs are growing. Americans aren’t the only ones with disposable income these days and brands are always eyeing new growth markets, for better or worse.
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slaw wrote: View Post
They didn't lose half their domestic audience in 5 years cause of international illegal streams. If your business plan is to stop offshore piracy and get people watching that stuff to buy your content, well, good luck with that (Note that this is not the NBA's business plan and the NBA doesn't give a shit about piracy in Afghanistan).
When Jordan left they went through a lull and changed a bunch of stuff to improve the game, which high they rode for 15 years. Now, they are in a viewership lull again for a variety of reasons, only some of which are out of their control. Not sure why NBA fans get so defensive about it or don't want to admit that maybe load management, unhappy stars, meaningless regular seasons (as they tell us themselves), the aesthetics of the game with all the threes, the politics, etc., have hurt them. Yeah, they can't control the fact people have a lot more options than 30 years ago but surely that doesn't mean you can't improve your own product if there are issues.
Yeah, they are going to get big tv deals cause sports are differentiated content that lots of people watch that you can sell ads on, so they are in high demand, but that's not going to be an endless trajectory of exponentially increasing dollars (just ask the EPL).
Now whether or not these changes you mentioned: like allowing player empowerment to destroy fan loyalty, or messing with the rules to increase offense will come back to bite the league... is another story. They won't make any changes until the franchise valuations decrease or stagnate, post-Covid. That's the only metric they care about. Everything else, including Nielsen ratings, are noise. For now, the league feels that they are on the right track.
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golden wrote: View Post
You basically answered your own question in the last sentence. It doesn't matter. Sure, classical Nielsen ratings have some utility, but they are just part of growing multi-platform revenue streams that have been driving NBA franchise valuations through the roof... pre-Covid. No market continues to expand forever (e.g. EPL) is kind of an obvious statement, but we don't know where the NBA is in terms of monetizing the total available market. Obviously, there was a big push into China and even early efforts trying to develop India.
Now whether or not these changes you mentioned: like allowing player empowerment to destroy fan loyalty, or messing with the rules to increase offense will come back to bite the league... is another story. They won't make any changes until the franchise valuations decrease or stagnate, post-Covid. That's the only metric they care about. Everything else, including Nielsen ratings, are noise. For now, the league feels that they are on the right track.
Anyway, I think a lot of people are whistling past the graveyard on this issue in a way the league never would have 10, 20 or 30 years ago.
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Going into this Finals there's this narrative that Paul is already a top 5 PG of all time and winning a chip would solidify his status as one of the top 5 greatest PG's ever. I don't know about you but off the top of my head I can easily name 6 PG's that are better than Paul:
1. Magic
2. Steph
3. Oscar
4. Isiah
5. Kidd
6. Nash
I probably missed more but no CP is not a top 5 PG of all tiime.Mamba Mentality
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slaw wrote: View Post
If you are waiting to make changes until franchise values stagnate or decline you have waited way too long..... that's insane.
Anyway, I think a lot of people are whistling past the graveyard on this issue in a way the league never would have 10, 20 or 30 years ago.
Average franchise value of National Basketball Association teams 2021
Feb 17, 2021 This graph depicts the average franchise value of National Basketball Association franchises from 2001 to 2021. In 2021, the average franchise value was 2.2 billion U.S. dollars.
NBA franchise value - additional information
The National Basketball Association is currently comprised of 30 franchises that, according to Forbes’ NBA Team Valuations, had an average value of around 2.2 million U.S. dollars in 2022. Compared to the National Football League (NFL) and Major League Baseball (MLB), franchises in the NBA are, on average, still worth less than the football teams, but now worth more than the baseball teams. Teams of Major League Baseball had an average franchise value of 1.85 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, while teams of the National Football League had an average value of 3.05 billion U.S. dollars.
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What happened in 2014/2015? It's almost like something must have happened 7 years ago? What could that have been? Oh right, the tv rights deals tripled. Must have been coincidence that franchise values tripled over the life of that tv deal....
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slaw wrote: View PostWhat happened in 2014/2015? It's almost like something must have happened 7 years ago? What could that have been? Oh right, the tv rights deals tripled. Must have been coincidence that franchise values tripled over the life of that tv deal....
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Bucks and Giannis winning the Championship may change the priorities of the other East teams. Giannis/ Jrue/ Middleton/ Lopez and Coach Bud would have that experience and swag as a winner in the next 2-3 years. Surrounding that core with discounted vets and young players will be easy from here on out. Giannis/ Middleton and Jrue are under contract until 23-24.
Bucks
Nets
Sixers
Heat
Hawks
Boston
The Raptors have some work to do.
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