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Who Exceeds Expectations 2021/2022?

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  • #16
    I think Precious will take some time, he's more likely to be the breakout candidate in the second half of the season or next year. I'm hoping the surprise is Gary Trent Jr. I think he has the ability to go off any night. I would love to see consistency, improved D (which he has shown in his career), and getting other guys involved. I honestly think he'll out play his contract.

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    • #17
      DanH wrote: View Post

      20 points alone makes you a top 30 scorer. Beasley fell short of 20 (barely, but still), had a 109 ORTG, a 57% TS%, and a -0.4 EPM. So, he meets... literally none of your criteria for Trent.

      Last year there were 31 players who scored 20 PPG. Of those, 16 had a 115 ORTG or higher. Of those, 15 hit 58% TS%.

      Those 15:

      Curry
      Lillard
      Embiid
      Giannis
      Lavine
      Zion
      Irving
      Jokic
      Trae
      Kawhi
      Ingram
      DeRozan
      Butler
      Middleton
      Sabonis

      Yes, this is a very reasonable threshold to consider a 16M signing successful.

      Like, are we stuck in 2010 when 16M was a max contract? Last year Trent's contract would have ranked somewhere around 80th in the league. So he should be able to be a top 100-120 or so player (remember, loads of really good players on rookie scale deals) to be appropriately priced. That will be a challenging enough threshold for him to meet without this ridiculous expectation that he be a legitimate superstar for him not to be overpaid at 16M.
      This thread is about exceeding expectations. To meet expectations, GTJ’s floor would be Beasley. To exceed expectations, it could be my criteria, even lowered to 18ppg.

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      • #18
        Trent Jr. is the obvious choice for me, as he will likely get an opportunity to start, play alongside our best players, and have a consistent role.

        Less obvious I think will be FVV. He had to do a lot last season on offense with Lowry and Siakam in and out of the line up and Baynes being unreliable. FVV should take a step back in terms of doing so much on offense and his efficiency should reflect that. If they manage to move Barnes into the starting line up at some point then Freddy can play his more natural SG role once in a while.

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        • #19
          golden wrote: View Post

          This thread is about exceeding expectations. To meet expectations, GTJ’s floor would be Beasley. To exceed expectations, it could be my criteria, even lowered to 18ppg.
          So, to be clear, the only way Trent exceeds your expectations is to be a top 15 scorer in the league. Meaning your expectations are for him to be roughly a top 20 scorer in the league, based on him earning about 50% above the MLE. Brilliant.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #20
            LJ2 wrote: View Post
            Trent Jr. is the obvious choice for me, as he will likely get an opportunity to start, play alongside our best players, and have a consistent role.

            Less obvious I think will be FVV. He had to do a lot last season on offense with Lowry and Siakam in and out of the line up and Baynes being unreliable. FVV should take a step back in terms of doing so much on offense and his efficiency should reflect that. If they manage to move Barnes into the starting line up at some point then Freddy can play his more natural SG role once in a while.
            That video of Freddy mastering the floater has me very bullish on him this season. The main reason his FG% went down so much last year was shot selection. He went from taking 0.307 of his shots within 3 feet of the basket in 2019-20 to to .174 of his shots within 3 feet of the basket in 2020-21. If he starts attacking the basket more often his FG% will go back up, and if he incorporates that floater he should set a career high in FG%. That's just such a great shot for small quick players like Fred.

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            • #21
              I will go for Barnes.

              Looked raw at times in summer league but he seems to adopt quickly to situations.

              I can see him finishing the season strong.

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              • #22
                DanH wrote: View Post

                So, to be clear, the only way Trent exceeds your expectations is to be a top 15 scorer in the league. Meaning your expectations are for him to be roughly a top 20 scorer in the league, based on him earning about 50% above the MLE. Brilliant.
                Christian Wood put up 21ppg on 59.1% TS on a 13M/yr contract. That's a clear-cut example of exceeding expectations relative to your contract. Not sure why that's so hard for you to understand. Lavine put up 27.4ppg on 63% TS% on a 19M/yr contract. That's another example.

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                • #23
                  Hotshot wrote: View Post
                  I will go for Barnes.

                  Looked raw at times in summer league but he seems to adopt quickly to situations.

                  I can see him finishing the season strong.
                  Agree he looks like he could be a quick study. Certainly is focused. Overall, this seems like a consistently hard working group. I assume all NBA players are hard working, but these guys being so young in general, hard work should lead to significant improvement. They all should have more upside than players in the late twenties or older.

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                  • #24
                    golden wrote: View Post

                    Christian Wood put up 21ppg on 59.1% TS on a 13M/yr contract. That's a clear-cut example of exceeding expectations relative to your contract. Not sure why that's so hard for you to understand. Lavine put up 27.4ppg on 63% TS% on a 19M/yr contract. That's another example.
                    Lavine signed his contract of 19M a year in 2018 after he averaged 17 points in a season. Did anyone think he would be averaging 27 points a few years later? Did anyone think Wood would average 21 points after averaging 13 points the season before? Those are definitely examples of exceeding expectations, but they didn't just exceed them, they skyrocketed past them. If you expect that out of GTJ, go for it, but those are rare examples and unrealistic to expect that out of any player.

                    Its better to have those type of expectations come as a surprise or else you'll likely be disappointed.

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                    • #25
                      A.I wrote: View Post

                      Lavine signed his contract of 19M a year in 2018 after he averaged 17 points in a season. Did anyone think he would be averaging 27 points a few years later? Did anyone think Wood would average 21 points after averaging 13 points the season before? Those are definitely examples of exceeding expectations, but they didn't just exceed them, they skyrocketed past them. If you expect that out of GTJ, go for it, but those are rare examples and unrealistic to expect that out of any player.

                      Its better to have those type of expectations come as a surprise or else you'll likely be disappointed.
                      Exceeding expectations would be, by definition, a surprise. So no worries there.

                      BTW. There were a few astute members on this forum who thought Wood was going to be a good player, as far back as 2016.

                      https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/f...istian-wood-pf

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                      • #26
                        I feel like I'm gonna like this kid a lot.


                        It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                        • #27
                          golden wrote: View Post

                          Christian Wood put up 21ppg on 59.1% TS on a 13M/yr contract. That's a clear-cut example of exceeding expectations relative to your contract. Not sure why that's so hard for you to understand. Lavine put up 27.4ppg on 63% TS% on a 19M/yr contract. That's another example.
                          Right, so to "exceed expectations" you think a player need to blow expectations out of the water. Is what I'm hearing here. So, fine then. Anything up to but not including Trent being one of the elite scorers in the league is just "playing to expectations" for you - in which case your expectations are nothing the rest of us need concern ourselves with, because that is ridiculous.

                          Who cares what the average output on a contract like that is when setting expectations, when you can grab some random outliers and declare them the only thing that would qualify?
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • #28
                            MixxAOR wrote: View Post

                            you don't get 20 ppg scorer on that contract
                            i think he needs to score 14 points on high efficiency. Not just chuck.

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                            • #29
                              Flynn may exceed my expectations. OG won't get all star but I see him finally getting a much deserved all defence spot because he will play enough this year to get it. Siakam will exceed expectations when back. My expectations of Scottie year one are low so I can see him passing my expectations. Yuta is a curious one. Precious I can also see exceeding expectations. I do think Flynn early on will do well then may take a step back but overall will exceed.

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                              • #30
                                TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

                                i think he needs to score 14 points on high efficiency. Not just chuck.
                                If he puts up the numbers he did on the Blazers, I'm happy. 15 PPG and 40% 3P. He is 22 years old, if its not next season, he will improve over time.

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