Who Exceeds Expectations 2021/2022?

[Puffer]

Welcome to the new look Raptors. The FO seems to be purposefully remaking the style of the team, going all in on the "length and strength" prototype. Height, length and energy, tempered by basketball smarts in the players would appear to be this years theme. Pressuring perimeter shooters and then disrupting passing lanes to force turnovers and fuel transition baskets looks like the goal. They have a ton of new faces to try it all out with. Invariably, some players will find their way and some not so much. So who shows, who dissappoints and who exceeds expectations?

There has been a lot of back and forth about Siakim this off-season after his drop in 3 pt shot % and lack of efficiency in Tampa. Not a lot of people cutting him enough slack for his COVID recovery and playing with the lack of an effective center for most of the season. I think he comes back better than expected, after recovering from his surgery. I don't see any reason for the team to rush him back when there are so many players the coach and FO would like to get a look at. When he does get back I think he exceeds expecatations

Precious Achiuwa is one of my favourite candidates to exceed expectations. I don't even remember him playing when the Raptors visited or hosted Miami, but he seems to fit the mold of previous surprise Raptors rookies. I believe he got a late start in basketball, and seems happy to have landed with the Raptors, with his now famous "Finally" when he and Masai got face to face after the trade. I suspect he was not just a throw in as part of the Dragic/Lowry trade. In his highlight videos, rather than simply getting random opportunity baskets, he always seems to be moving with purpose when he recieves the ball and on his drives, he gets to the seams in the defense. He shows a high level of confidence in his 3's, which suggests to me he has been working on them and expects them to go in.

I've got three other candidates that could surprise. I won't go into details but I'll be watching Ish Wainwright, Delano Banton and Chris Boucher. (I don't expect Scotty to exceed my high expectations, nor to dissappoint. We'll all know better by March.

[Maury]

I think Ish Wainright looked good in maybe one game in the summer league, the rest of the time he looked to very much belong with the rest of those guys. Delano Banton IMO is just too raw and turnover prone to get any run under nurse.

I actually think Goran Dragic will exceed expectations because his skill set is exactly what this team needs whether it’s off the bench or as a starter. He’ll be surrounded by guys that will make him better and I really think he can thrive here if he has the right attitude.

[MixxAOR]

well I think a lot of people are down on Gary Trent Jr. I think he'll exceed people's expectations.

[golden]

well I think a lot of people are down on Gary Trent Jr. I think he'll exceed people's expectations.

People aren't down on GTJ, they are down on Masai/Bobby's negotiating, i.e., the player-friendly salary & player option. If GTJ puts up > 20 PPG on high efficiency (> 58% TS, > 115 ORTG), that would exceed my expectations at his current price.

Also needs to have a positive impact (e.g. net rating and on/off)... not just a selfish stat padder.

[MixxAOR]

People aren't down on GTJ, they are down on Masai/Bobby's negotiating, i.e., the player-friendly salary & player option. If GTJ puts up > 20 PPG on high efficiency (> 58% TS, > 115 ORTG), that would exceed my expectations at his current price.

Also needs to have a positive impact (e.g. net rating and on/off)... not just a selfish stat padder.

you don't get 20 ppg scorer on that contract

[golden]

you don't get 20 ppg scorer on that contract

Gary's doppelganger: Malik Beasley. $14M/year.

Yeah... you should pay less.

[inthepaint]

Yuta

[MixxAOR]

Gary's doppelganger: Malik Beasley. $14M/year.

Yeah... you should pay less.

Nah he got a deserving contract he averaged 20 pts in 14 games after averaging 7pts with Denver. Wolves gambled and it worked out for them.

[Puffer]

I think Ish Wainright looked good in maybe one game in the summer league, the rest of the time he looked to very much belong with the rest of those guys. Delano Banton IMO is just too raw and turnover prone to get any run under nurse.

I actually think Goran Dragic will exceed expectations because his skill set is exactly what this team needs whether it’s off the bench or as a starter. He’ll be surrounded by guys that will make him better and I really think he can thrive here if he has the right attitude.

Agree on Dragic. Could be a real asset, depending on attitude and usage. I think Ish, being a little older, having had a different path to get into the NBA, and having family responsibilities, will focus in on the task, and is probably working his ass off right now. And will continue to during training camp and the early season, and do everything in his power to give the coaches exactly what they ask of him. I hope he sticks. Great story.

[planetmars]

People are really down on Pascal, but I think he reaches all-star / all-nba caliber player again. The caveat is team record. The media/voters don't like to get guys in on bad teams, unless they are PPG leaders or something.

I think Flynn will have a really good season. He was up and down in summer league, but if he gets to play with Dragic that'll help him a lot.

OG and GTJ are poised for breakout seasons. OG because he's hitting that peak window. GTJ because of his contract. I think one of them exceed expectations, but not both.

[Puffer]

Yuta

I wonder if his increased role with the Japanese Olympic team translates into greater confidence? The would help him. I think he deferred too much last season.

[golden]

Nah he got a deserving contract he averaged 20 pts in 14 games after averaging 7pts with Denver. Wolves gambled and it worked out for them.

That was my point. Gary performed worse than Beasley in a similar end-of-season "test drive", yet we paid him more AND gave him a player option.

So, if he outperforms his contract, he's a UFA at age 24 and we'll have to pay even more, or the asset leaves. If he underperforms his contract, he opts in and that's an overpaid asset. Not Gary's fault... the contract isn't rigged to give the franchise value, except as a trade asset (i.e. salary ballast) like Dan mentioned. Salary ballast is a terrible reason to give a guy a sweet deal. The only other reason for the overpay would be if we are truly hot-to-trot on acquiring Ben Simmons, so we tossed a bone to Klutch to lobby Simmons about coming to Toronto.

That said... I could take the GTJ's scoring criteria down to > 18 PPG, > 115 ORTG, > 58% TS%. Also needs a positive net rating (> 5) and positive on/off.

[DanH]

Gary's doppelganger: Malik Beasley. $14M/year.

Yeah... you should pay less.

20 points alone makes you a top 30 scorer. Beasley fell short of 20 (barely, but still), had a 109 ORTG, a 57% TS%, and a -0.4 EPM. So, he meets... literally none of your criteria for Trent.

Last year there were 31 players who scored 20 PPG. Of those, 16 had a 115 ORTG or higher. Of those, 15 hit 58% TS%.

Those 15:

Curry
Lillard
Embiid
Giannis
Lavine
Zion
Irving
Jokic
Trae
Kawhi
Ingram
DeRozan
Butler
Middleton
Sabonis

Yes, this is a very reasonable threshold to consider a 16M signing successful.

Like, are we stuck in 2010 when 16M was a max contract? Last year Trent's contract would have ranked somewhere around 80th in the league. So he should be able to be a top 100-120 or so player (remember, loads of really good players on rookie scale deals) to be appropriately priced. That will be a challenging enough threshold for him to meet without this ridiculous expectation that he be a legitimate superstar for him not to be overpaid at 16M.

[JawsGT]

Flynn, OG and Precious get my vote. That being said, Im not sure I'd vote for any of players to disapoint. Its all relative to expectations i suppose, and mine are tempered but hopeful.

[Primer]

OG seems poised for another step up and will be in All Star contention.

Trent should look a lot better than last year now that he's had time to learn the system.

I also think Fred will take his game to another level now that Lowry is gone. I think he'll be considered one of the better players in the league this year.