I think Precious will take some time, he's more likely to be the breakout candidate in the second half of the season or next year. I'm hoping the surprise is Gary Trent Jr. I think he has the ability to go off any night. I would love to see consistency, improved D (which he has shown in his career), and getting other guys involved. I honestly think he'll out play his contract.
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Who Exceeds Expectations 2021/2022?
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DanH wrote: View Post
20 points alone makes you a top 30 scorer. Beasley fell short of 20 (barely, but still), had a 109 ORTG, a 57% TS%, and a -0.4 EPM. So, he meets... literally none of your criteria for Trent.
Last year there were 31 players who scored 20 PPG. Of those, 16 had a 115 ORTG or higher. Of those, 15 hit 58% TS%.
Those 15:
Curry
Lillard
Embiid
Giannis
Lavine
Zion
Irving
Jokic
Trae
Kawhi
Ingram
DeRozan
Butler
Middleton
Sabonis
Yes, this is a very reasonable threshold to consider a 16M signing successful.
Like, are we stuck in 2010 when 16M was a max contract? Last year Trent's contract would have ranked somewhere around 80th in the league. So he should be able to be a top 100-120 or so player (remember, loads of really good players on rookie scale deals) to be appropriately priced. That will be a challenging enough threshold for him to meet without this ridiculous expectation that he be a legitimate superstar for him not to be overpaid at 16M.
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Trent Jr. is the obvious choice for me, as he will likely get an opportunity to start, play alongside our best players, and have a consistent role.
Less obvious I think will be FVV. He had to do a lot last season on offense with Lowry and Siakam in and out of the line up and Baynes being unreliable. FVV should take a step back in terms of doing so much on offense and his efficiency should reflect that. If they manage to move Barnes into the starting line up at some point then Freddy can play his more natural SG role once in a while.
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golden wrote: View Post
This thread is about exceeding expectations. To meet expectations, GTJ’s floor would be Beasley. To exceed expectations, it could be my criteria, even lowered to 18ppg.
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LJ2 wrote: View PostTrent Jr. is the obvious choice for me, as he will likely get an opportunity to start, play alongside our best players, and have a consistent role.
Less obvious I think will be FVV. He had to do a lot last season on offense with Lowry and Siakam in and out of the line up and Baynes being unreliable. FVV should take a step back in terms of doing so much on offense and his efficiency should reflect that. If they manage to move Barnes into the starting line up at some point then Freddy can play his more natural SG role once in a while.
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DanH wrote: View Post
So, to be clear, the only way Trent exceeds your expectations is to be a top 15 scorer in the league. Meaning your expectations are for him to be roughly a top 20 scorer in the league, based on him earning about 50% above the MLE. Brilliant.
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Hotshot wrote: View PostI will go for Barnes.
Looked raw at times in summer league but he seems to adopt quickly to situations.
I can see him finishing the season strong.
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golden wrote: View Post
Christian Wood put up 21ppg on 59.1% TS on a 13M/yr contract. That's a clear-cut example of exceeding expectations relative to your contract. Not sure why that's so hard for you to understand. Lavine put up 27.4ppg on 63% TS% on a 19M/yr contract. That's another example.
Its better to have those type of expectations come as a surprise or else you'll likely be disappointed.
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A.I wrote: View Post
Lavine signed his contract of 19M a year in 2018 after he averaged 17 points in a season. Did anyone think he would be averaging 27 points a few years later? Did anyone think Wood would average 21 points after averaging 13 points the season before? Those are definitely examples of exceeding expectations, but they didn't just exceed them, they skyrocketed past them. If you expect that out of GTJ, go for it, but those are rare examples and unrealistic to expect that out of any player.
Its better to have those type of expectations come as a surprise or else you'll likely be disappointed.
BTW. There were a few astute members on this forum who thought Wood was going to be a good player, as far back as 2016.
https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/f...istian-wood-pf
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golden wrote: View Post
Christian Wood put up 21ppg on 59.1% TS on a 13M/yr contract. That's a clear-cut example of exceeding expectations relative to your contract. Not sure why that's so hard for you to understand. Lavine put up 27.4ppg on 63% TS% on a 19M/yr contract. That's another example.
Who cares what the average output on a contract like that is when setting expectations, when you can grab some random outliers and declare them the only thing that would qualify?
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Flynn may exceed my expectations. OG won't get all star but I see him finally getting a much deserved all defence spot because he will play enough this year to get it. Siakam will exceed expectations when back. My expectations of Scottie year one are low so I can see him passing my expectations. Yuta is a curious one. Precious I can also see exceeding expectations. I do think Flynn early on will do well then may take a step back but overall will exceed.
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