Are Raptors Creating A New Trend?

[LJ2]

I don't think it's on any player specifically, it's the scheme, as the article correctly points out. Iff the coach will tell you to prioritize deflections, steals and doubles teams, that's what you do. All these things are great when they work, but they can also be exploited/planned against. It's a high risk/high reward strategy. It can give you extra possessions and easy transition buckets, but it can also expose a lot of gaps when the rotations get missed.

In my book for this to work, you need 3 things:

1. Five above average 1-on-1 on-ball defenders on the floor at the same time (we have that most of the game, but not always, no team does)
2. Depth to mitigate the physical toll this takes (we have it, but we've also been banged up with Pascal coming back and Yuta out)
3. Chemistry like the article says at the end (comes with communication and having played together for a while). We don't have that yet.

Definitely not on any one player.

The scheme was working for the first couple of weeks, but something has changed. Those easy buckets around the rim and wide open 3's teams have been getting are a result of perimeter defenders being undisciplined and the resulting penetration.

[DanH]

3. Chemistry can be attributed to Pascal coming back. Team was doing fine before.

Not sure it all comes down to Pascal. In the two games he didn't play in that stretch, we had a 113 DRTG. That alone would be far worse than we were performing before.

That said, he's definitely not up to speed yet and it's no surprise we've done even worse on the games he's played, with a 121 DRTG.

[Kagemusha]

I don't think it's on any player specifically, it's the scheme, as the article correctly points out. Iff the coach will tell you to prioritize deflections, steals and doubles teams, that's what you do. All these things are great when they work, but they can also be exploited/planned against. It's a high risk/high reward strategy. It can give you extra possessions and easy transition buckets, but it can also expose a lot of gaps when the rotations get missed.

In my book for this to work, you need 3 things:

1. Five above average 1-on-1 on-ball defenders on the floor at the same time (we have that most of the game, but not always, no team does)
2. Depth to mitigate the physical toll this takes (we have it, but we've also been banged up with Pascal coming back and Yuta out)
3. Chemistry like the article says at the end (comes with communication and having played together for a while). We don't have that yet.

3. Chemistry can be attributed to Pascal coming back. Team was doing fine before.

[inthepaint]

Not sure what has lead to this dramatic turnaround in defense. Is it Siakam's return, are teams adjusting to what the Raps are doing or is it something else?

In the Portland game I felt FVV wasn't staying in front of Dame as well as he normally would, so not sure if he's dealing with whatever injury he had still. CJ was getting whatever he wanted as well, so that's on GT.

I don't think it's on any player specifically, it's the scheme, as the article correctly points out. Iff the coach will tell you to prioritize deflections, steals and doubles teams, that's what you do. All these things are great when they work, but they can also be exploited/planned against. It's a high risk/high reward strategy. It can give you extra possessions and easy transition buckets, but it can also expose a lot of gaps when the rotations get missed.

In my book for this to work, you need 3 things:

1. Five above average 1-on-1 on-ball defenders on the floor at the same time (we have that most of the game, but not always, no team does)
2. Depth to mitigate the physical toll this takes (we have it, but we've also been banged up with Pascal coming back and Yuta out)
3. Chemistry like the article says at the end (comes with communication and having played together for a while). We don't have that yet.

[LJ2]

https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/...aggressiveness

Not sure what has lead to this dramatic turnaround in defense. Is it Siakam's return, are teams adjusting to what the Raps are doing or is it something else?

In the Portland game I felt FVV wasn't staying in front of Dame as well as he normally would, so not sure if he's dealing with whatever injury he had still. CJ was getting whatever he wanted as well, so that's on GT.

[golden]

Two weeks ago, the Toronto Raptors were riding high, defying expectations, and sitting pretty at 6-3 with the league’s sixth-ranked defense. It was the kind of start to the season to get excited about. Sure, the offense still had a lot of work to do, but that was expected. The defense, however, looked like the real deal.

Now, everything is a mess.

Somehow Toronto has gone from having one of the best defenses in the league to having the worst defense in the league over the past two weeks. During this 1-5 stretch, they’re surrendering 120.3 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, the worst in the NBA by a pretty significant amount.

So, what’s the problem?

Well, the Raptors’ over-aggressiveness is killing them right now. They haven’t been crisp on rotations and their eagerness to get up and defend at the point of attack has created far too many blow-by opportunities for opposing teams. On Monday, for example, the Portland Trail Blazers created at least 10 buckets by beating their man one-on-one and either taking it up for a layup or making kick-out passes when Toronto began scrambling. In the game prior, against Detroit, the Pistons racked up 34 assists that led directly to 82 of Detroit’s 127 points.

Over this six-game stretch, opposing teams are shooting 70.3% at the rim and 39.7% from three-point range against Toronto, per Cleaning the Glass. Both of those numbers rank 28th in the league over that stretch and suggest the Raptors are getting killed in the two worst places to give up buckets.

This hyper aggressiveness has been a staple of the Raptors during head coach Nick Nurse’s tenure, and it makes sense with this versatile, switch-everything roster, but it might be time to tamp it down a little bit. Opposing teams are just waiting for the double teams to come and then finding the open man either inside or out for easy buckets. Until there’s more chemistry on defense, the Raptors’ all-or-nothing approach is going to continue to burn them.

https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/...aggressiveness

[chris]

well that seems pretty definitive

[DanH]

Well, the rule book won't help when it comes to evaluating statistics, it really comes down to how the stats keepers track possessions.

Here is the NBA.com stats glossary definition:

Poss

Name Possessions
Definition The number of possessions played by a player or team. Please note: an Offensive Rebound does not create another possession, it simply makes the existing possession longer.

[chris]

https://squared2020.com/2017/07/10/a...ession-models/



https://www.wnba.com/archive/wnba/st.../stats101.html



I guess not.

interesting. the language in the nba rule book suggests it is as golden understood it to be though, and how probably most of us understood it until that tweet by joe wolfond was posted.

rule number 7, section II, f:

1. Team possession ends when:
   • The ball hits the rim of the offensive team
   • The opponent gains possession

that would suggest the possession ends when the ball hits the rim no matter which team rebounds the ball.

and rule 7, section iv, d, 1:

1. The shot clock shall be reset to 14 seconds anytime the following occurs:
   1. The offensive team is the first to gain possession after an unsuccessful free throw that remains in play, or an unsuccessful field goal attempt that contacts the basket ring
   2. A loose ball foul is called on the defensive team in the sequence immediately following an unsuccessful free throw that remains in play, or an unsuccessful field goal attempt that contacts the basket ring; provided that, as a result of the foul, the offensive team inbounds the ball in the frontcourt (NOTE: If, as a result of a defensive foul, the offensive team inbounds the ball in the backcourt, Rule 7—Section IV—c—2 applies)
   3. The offensive team retains possession after the ball goes out of bounds in the sequence immediately following an unsuccessful free throw that remains in play, or an unsuccessful field goal attempt that contacts the basket ring
      1. NOTE: For purposes of Rule 7—Section IV—d only, an “unsuccessful field goal attempt that contacts the basket ring” shall include any live ball from the playing court that contacts the basket ring of the team which is in possession.

perhaps ambiguous but that language implies to me that the offensive team has gained a new possession after rebounding a missed FT or FG.

who the hell knows?

[LJ2]

The bigger issue is our field goal percentage. If we scored more efficiently, there won't be as many offensive rebounds in play.

We've got the whole team back now and Siakam should be rounding into shape over the next 5 games or so. Lets see what the FG% looks like then. I do think they expend a tonne of energy on D and they need to figure out how to stay fresh(er) to close games out. Naturally would hope the bench is featured more to allow starters to rest.

[golden]

https://squared2020.com/2017/07/10/a...ession-models/



https://www.wnba.com/archive/wnba/st.../stats101.html



I guess not.

There you go. Learn something new every day. Even stuff you thought you knew cold.

[MixxAOR]

that's what intuitively makes the most sense and how i'm nearly certain it was when the shot clock was reset to 24 seconds, but maybe they changed the definition of a possession when they reduced the reset to 14 seconds?

https://squared2020.com/2017/07/10/a...ession-models/

It’s not hard to determine from a box score how many points your team scored, but it is difficult to determine how many possessions you had. The ball can only change hands four different ways: (1) your team makes a shot; (2) your team misses a shot and doesn’t get an offensive rebound; (3) your team turns the ball over; and (4) your team goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or doesn’t get the rebound of a missed last shot.

https://www.wnba.com/archive/wnba/st.../stats101.html

Possessions - Arguably the most important discovery made by statistical analysts in basketball is the critical importance of possessions. If a possession is considered as ending with a made shot, a defensive rebound or a turnover - that is, an offensive rebound is not a new possession - the two teams in any given games are essentially limited to the same number of possessions, other than the possibility of getting one extra possession in each half. Because of this, being more efficient in a game with your possessions means you will almost certainly win.

I guess not.

[A.I]

The bigger issue is our field goal percentage. If we scored more efficiently, there won't be as many offensive rebounds in play.

I think Pascal will help with that. Whether you agree he should be a number 1 option or not, he has the most experience being one. Defenses will pay attention to him the most so it should help everyone else on the team get better looks.

[chris]

I thought that the possession ends after the shot attempt result is known, which means the O-Reb starts a new possession. So, an O-Reb plus a quick tap back would be a really short possession, thereby increasing pace. That's how it should be, if it's not.

that's what intuitively makes the most sense and how i'm nearly certain it was when the shot clock was reset to 24 seconds, but maybe they changed the definition of a possession when they reduced the reset to 14 seconds?

[MixxAOR]

I thought that the possession ends after the shot attempt result is known, which means the O-Reb starts a new possession. So, an O-Reb plus a quick tap back would be a really short possession, thereby increasing pace. That's how it should be, if it's not.

I guess possession ends when team switches from offense to defense