Are Raptors Creating A New Trend?

[DanH]

I don't know that it's a new philosophy. It might be the first time a team has been able to accomplish it to this degree though.

[slaw]

The question is if it's a sustainable strategy.... because there is an potential flaw on largely relying on turnovers and OREBs as a way for your team to win in the margins: the success of that approach can be largely out of your control. If the opposition coach decides to make taking care of the ball, boxing out, gang rebounding and getting back in transition a top priority, then those are all coachable problems that can be corrected.

You can already see this approach catching teams off guard in the regular season, but if you have to play the same team back-to-back, they'll remember how they got punched in the mouth and play harder & smarter the next time. Playoffs could really expose that strategy, so you still need super-talented guys who can get buckets (i.e. eFG%) in the half-court.

Raps turned teams over a lot the last 2 seasons (1 and 2 and TOV%). Even in the championship year they were 9th, so it's definitely a key defensive value for Nurse.

Really tough to say with the OREB%. It hasn't necessarily been a point of emphasis the last couple seasons. Whether that's changed is hard to say based on 8 games. It could also be it's just a function of wanting these kinds of players for 75 other reasons and one of the unintended consequences or ancillary benefits being more offensive rebounds.

I just don't agree with the position being posited here (as I understand it) that there's any major philosophical change to rely on those facets of the game over others or that they are creating a team with that being the end game.

[LJ2]

Our own FG% and turnovers has been a big key as well.. We had 16 more shots opening night against the Wiz and somehow lost that one. Crappy FG% and 19 turnovers that game.

[MixxAOR]

Well if Raptors are able to control defensive rebounds and keep their own turnovers in check then with their defense they will have a chance in every game. FG% and FTA depends on our talent level but they can affect opposing team's FG% and FTA. Can they shut down opposing teams consistenly? That's the question.

[golden]

Which just seems insane to me that it took this long. Possession is 9/10th of the law. Best defense is a good offense. You can't get scored on when you have the ball. Yada yada.

It's been the rule of thumb in football and hockey for awhile now, and it to me, that type of defense and aggressive play has way less variance than the Moreyball "just keep shooting 3s!!!" model. Eventually others will probably catch on, but then again, this is the league that took over 30 years to figure out 35% from 3 > 45% from 2

The question is if it's a sustainable strategy.... because there is an potential flaw on largely relying on turnovers and OREBs as a way for your team to win in the margins: the success of that approach can be largely out of your control. If the opposition coach decides to make taking care of the ball, boxing out, gang rebounding and getting back in transition a top priority, then those are all coachable problems that can be corrected.

You can already see this approach catching teams off guard in the regular season, but if you have to play the same team back-to-back, they'll remember how they got punched in the mouth and play harder & smarter the next time. Playoffs could really expose that strategy, so you still need super-talented guys who can get buckets (i.e. eFG%) in the half-court.

[inthepaint]

Good thread.

Adjusting your defence to actually try to force turnovers only works on well grounded defences (as the raps defence this year). The reason is that when you're actually actively trying to get the opponent to fumble the ball (as opposed just focusing on making their path to the basket more difficult), you're taking a risk (often referred to as "gambling"), that when you don't get the steal/turnover, it opens the path to your basket. The thing is the raps have an intricate, physically demanding, positionless defensive rotation of guys on any given possession that typically closes the door for that, with fast, lengthy help defenders, if the steal doesn't happen.

Doesn't work with a bunch of 32+ year old players taking breaks on D, but it works with this group.

[LJ2]

Sure, but of those 4 factors, teams usually make eFG% (i.e. getting high percentage shots & now 3-pt shooting) the priority. Some teams/players (*cough* Harden/Trae) focus on getting to the FT line. But I don't know if a team has put such an emphasis on generating turnovers and grabbing OREBs and building a roster with players who have the physical tools and mindset to execute.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. The entire Raptors approach seems focused on generating additional shots as a way to get an advantage. My goodness once our non shooters learn to shoot we will lay waste to the NBA. Okay I might be getting carried away....but I'm excited.

[KeonClark]

Sure, but of those 4 factors, teams usually make eFG% (i.e. getting high percentage shots & now 3-pt shooting) the priority. Some teams/players (*cough* Harden/Trae) focus on getting to the FT line. But I don't know if a team has put such an emphasis on generating turnovers and grabbing OREBs and building a roster with players who have the physical tools and mindset to execute.

Which just seems insane to me that it took this long. Possession is 9/10th of the law. Best defense is a good offense. You can't get scored on when you have the ball. Yada yada.

It's been the rule of thumb in football and hockey for awhile now, and it to me, that type of defense and aggressive play has way less variance than the Moreyball "just keep shooting 3s!!!" model. Eventually others will probably catch on, but then again, this is the league that took over 30 years to figure out 35% from 3 > 45% from 2

[golden]

Well, I mean the old four factors includes turnovers and OREBs for a reason.... not sure this is new thinking in terms of the Raptors.

Sure, but of those 4 factors, teams usually make eFG% (i.e. getting high percentage shots & now 3-pt shooting) the priority. Some teams/players (*cough* Harden/Trae) focus on getting to the FT line. But I don't know if a team has put such an emphasis on generating turnovers and grabbing OREBs and building a roster with players who have the physical tools and mindset to execute.

[slaw]

Well, I mean the old four factors includes turnovers and OREBs for a reason.... not sure this is new thinking in terms of the Raptors.

[golden]

"Team that shoots more has a statistical edge, according to super advanced mathematical geniuses"

Jesus Christ, who knew??

I think you need to change up your breakfast routine, Keon.

[planetmars]

Right?! You can draw so much insight and theories into the moves the Raps have made when you look at it from the perspective of what they want to achieve in the game. For example Champagnie was a strong rebounder in college (8th in the nation), and particularly good at grabbing offensive boards. Raps want extra possessions so naturally they'd have interest in him where they were picking in the draft.

Makes a lot of sense. They want to build around their core and the traits their core gives them. Even Svi has a knack of getting back a possession even though his defense isn't as great as others. We know Achiuawa and Birch are good offensive rebounders. Trent is elite at deflections already.

Maybe this is why they were in talks for Simmons since Ben could be elite at some of the things they want (offensive rebounds, deflections, steals, etc). And would take him even if he can't shoot.

[LJ2]

Really great thread idea. NBA.com/stats keeps track of hustle stats:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle-leaders/

I don't know how to get historical data, as this is just from this season (so only 6-8 games in) but it gives you an idea as to guys who can help gain an extra possession or two.

Right?! You can draw so much insight and theories into the moves the Raps have made when you look at it from the perspective of what they want to achieve in the game. For example Champagnie was a strong rebounder in college (8th in the nation), and particularly good at grabbing offensive boards. Raps want extra possessions so naturally they'd have interest in him where they were picking in the draft.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Kudos to Nurse for implementing this defensive method. I think he stole a trick or two from Kawhi as well. That fun guy not only brought us a chip, he also influenced us in many ways.
The league changes in officiating also helps us on defense so far.

The rule changes are really the x factor here.

[Kagemusha]

You can see even in how Raps really get down in their defensive stances so they are level with the ball. Much easier to get into guys and poke at the ball, get deflections. It's all about forcing turnovers and limiting our own.

Kudos to Nurse for implementing this defensive method. I think he stole a trick or two from Kawhi as well. That fun guy not only brought us a chip, he also influenced us in many ways.
The league changes in officiating also helps us on defense so far.