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Game 18: Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors - Sunday Nov 21st 8:30pm ET - Sportsnet

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  • golden wrote: View Post

    If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

    There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.


    I follow different philosophy on defense. Think of it like Wayne Gretzy's quote: You miss 100% of shots you don't take. So don't let them take it.

    https://fansided.com/2017/01/12/nylo...trics-actions/

    The idea of how best to defend a 3-pointer has become pretty solid — don’t let your opponents shoot them. This is not a new concept — we know that there is a lot of randomness in defensive 3-point percentage and that the best defenses generally limit attempts.
    On 3-pointers, there is essentially no year-to-year correlation for either the Defended FG% stat or the Difference stat. This means that a defender doesn’t really have the ability to control their Defended FG%. This is not to say that on any one particular shot attempt a defender couldn’t make the shot attempt more difficult and force a miss. It simply means that as the sample size gets larger, more randomness seeps into this particular metric, making it essentially unusable as a measure of individual defense.
    Outside of six feet, everything appears to be mostly random — defenders don’t appear to have any control over their Defended FG%.
    Another point is that a defender can deter the shot by making sure the shooter isn’t comfortable shooting. As Johannes Becker explained here, NBA players have a comfort zone and will shoot if they feel comfortable with the amount of space they have to get the shot off. So as a defender, you have to attempt to crowd their space and make them feel uncomfortable about shooting. In that article, Johannes also found that a players’ comfort zone requires more space (defender distance between the shooter and defender) when there is a negative height differential (meaning the defender is taller than the shooter).
    I believe that once we see percentage of opponents shots become long twos our defense will start to improve. You have to give up something and that something is long two.
    Last edited by MixxAOR; Wed Nov 24, 2021, 12:46 PM.
    Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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    • golden wrote: View Post

      If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

      There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.

      The 3PT% is likely not predictive.

      However, the types of three point shots being given up is. The Raptors give up the most corner threes in the league. That's not great.

      They actually give up the 4th least above the break threes in the league. So they specifically are giving up a lot of corner threes.

      There's a good demonstration here that 3 point conversion rate is mostly noise, not predictive, and it's comparing the Raptors' left corner to right corner threes given up. They give up about 6 a game of each of them. Opponents shoot 34% from the left corner, among the 10 best (defensively) marks in the league. But they shoot 41% from the right corner, among the 10 worst marks. With the number of those looks given up, it is unlikely there's a significant difference in the quality of the contest there.

      Meanwhile, although the Raptors prevent above the break threes (implying they cover those pretty well in general), opponents shoot 37% from there, 3rd worst (defensively) mark in the league.

      So I'm none too concerned about the opponent 3 point %. Even over a full season that doesn't converge on predictive, and certainly not over a quarter season. But the number of corner threes they give up is definitely worth talking about.

      I was pleasantly surprised how few above the break threes they give up though. If they can extend that prevention down to the corners even a little that would really help bolster the defence.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • MixxAOR wrote: View Post

        I follow different philosophy on defense. Think of it like Wayne Gretzy's quote: You miss 100% of shots you don't take. So don't let them take it.

        https://fansided.com/2017/01/12/nylo...trics-actions/


        I believe that once we see percentage of opponents shots become long twos our defense will start to improve. You have to give up something and that something is long two.
        For sure, you give up the long 2 if you can, but you've got to get up tight on perimeter shooters and run them off the 3-pt line. We try doing that, but teams turn our over-aggressive ball pressure against us putting us immediately into scramble/help mode, collapsing back into the paint as a first priority, It's a tough ask to be in 2 places at once, especially when offenses know Raptors defense will over-react to initial actions.

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        • golden wrote: View Post

          For sure, you give up the long 2 if you can, but you've got to get up tight on perimeter shooters and run them off the 3-pt line. We try doing that, but teams turn our over-aggressive ball pressure against us putting us immediately into scramble/help mode, collapsing back into the paint as a first priority, It's a tough ask to be in 2 places at once, especially when offenses know Raptors defense will over-react to initial actions.
          Yes defense is hard.
          Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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          • MixxAOR wrote: View Post

            Yes defense is hard.
            .
            MixxAOR wrote: View Post

            according to who?

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            • golden wrote: View Post

              .
              That reply was that when you said it's too demanding. Defense is hard. I never argued against that. That's what they paid to do. Not getting babied .you think theres scheme that's easy and it'll be top 10 lmao? Tried to dunk on me? Lol. Yes I expect players to play hard lol
              Last edited by MixxAOR; Wed Nov 24, 2021, 01:54 PM.
              Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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              • golden wrote: View Post

                If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

                There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.


                Looks like Raps are still managing to be stingy with opponent FG attempts. Fewest attempts against other than Detroit of all teams. If they can just tighten things up bring down the other teams shooting % they should start climbing back up the defensive rating charts.

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                • I'm going to start working on the game thread... they take me a little time to make.

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                  • saints91 wrote: View Post
                    I'm going to start working on the game thread... they take me a little time to make.
                    Oh when the saints, oh when the saints....
                    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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