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Game 18: Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors - Sunday Nov 21st 8:30pm ET - Sportsnet

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  • KeonClark
    replied
    saints91 wrote: View Post
    I'm going to start working on the game thread... they take me a little time to make.
    Oh when the saints, oh when the saints....

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  • saints91
    replied
    I'm going to start working on the game thread... they take me a little time to make.

    Leave a comment:


  • LJ2
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

    There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.


    Looks like Raps are still managing to be stingy with opponent FG attempts. Fewest attempts against other than Detroit of all teams. If they can just tighten things up bring down the other teams shooting % they should start climbing back up the defensive rating charts.

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  • MixxAOR
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    .
    That reply was that when you said it's too demanding. Defense is hard. I never argued against that. That's what they paid to do. Not getting babied .you think theres scheme that's easy and it'll be top 10 lmao? Tried to dunk on me? Lol. Yes I expect players to play hard lol
    Last edited by MixxAOR; Wed Nov 24, 2021, 01:54 PM.

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  • golden
    replied
    MixxAOR wrote: View Post

    Yes defense is hard.
    .
    MixxAOR wrote: View Post

    according to who?

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  • MixxAOR
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    For sure, you give up the long 2 if you can, but you've got to get up tight on perimeter shooters and run them off the 3-pt line. We try doing that, but teams turn our over-aggressive ball pressure against us putting us immediately into scramble/help mode, collapsing back into the paint as a first priority, It's a tough ask to be in 2 places at once, especially when offenses know Raptors defense will over-react to initial actions.
    Yes defense is hard.

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  • golden
    replied
    MixxAOR wrote: View Post

    I follow different philosophy on defense. Think of it like Wayne Gretzy's quote: You miss 100% of shots you don't take. So don't let them take it.

    https://fansided.com/2017/01/12/nylo...trics-actions/


    I believe that once we see percentage of opponents shots become long twos our defense will start to improve. You have to give up something and that something is long two.
    For sure, you give up the long 2 if you can, but you've got to get up tight on perimeter shooters and run them off the 3-pt line. We try doing that, but teams turn our over-aggressive ball pressure against us putting us immediately into scramble/help mode, collapsing back into the paint as a first priority, It's a tough ask to be in 2 places at once, especially when offenses know Raptors defense will over-react to initial actions.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

    There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.

    The 3PT% is likely not predictive.

    However, the types of three point shots being given up is. The Raptors give up the most corner threes in the league. That's not great.

    They actually give up the 4th least above the break threes in the league. So they specifically are giving up a lot of corner threes.

    There's a good demonstration here that 3 point conversion rate is mostly noise, not predictive, and it's comparing the Raptors' left corner to right corner threes given up. They give up about 6 a game of each of them. Opponents shoot 34% from the left corner, among the 10 best (defensively) marks in the league. But they shoot 41% from the right corner, among the 10 worst marks. With the number of those looks given up, it is unlikely there's a significant difference in the quality of the contest there.

    Meanwhile, although the Raptors prevent above the break threes (implying they cover those pretty well in general), opponents shoot 37% from there, 3rd worst (defensively) mark in the league.

    So I'm none too concerned about the opponent 3 point %. Even over a full season that doesn't converge on predictive, and certainly not over a quarter season. But the number of corner threes they give up is definitely worth talking about.

    I was pleasantly surprised how few above the break threes they give up though. If they can extend that prevention down to the corners even a little that would really help bolster the defence.

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  • MixxAOR
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

    There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.


    I follow different philosophy on defense. Think of it like Wayne Gretzy's quote: You miss 100% of shots you don't take. So don't let them take it.

    https://fansided.com/2017/01/12/nylo...trics-actions/

    The idea of how best to defend a 3-pointer has become pretty solid — don’t let your opponents shoot them. This is not a new concept — we know that there is a lot of randomness in defensive 3-point percentage and that the best defenses generally limit attempts.
    On 3-pointers, there is essentially no year-to-year correlation for either the Defended FG% stat or the Difference stat. This means that a defender doesn’t really have the ability to control their Defended FG%. This is not to say that on any one particular shot attempt a defender couldn’t make the shot attempt more difficult and force a miss. It simply means that as the sample size gets larger, more randomness seeps into this particular metric, making it essentially unusable as a measure of individual defense.
    Outside of six feet, everything appears to be mostly random — defenders don’t appear to have any control over their Defended FG%.
    Another point is that a defender can deter the shot by making sure the shooter isn’t comfortable shooting. As Johannes Becker explained here, NBA players have a comfort zone and will shoot if they feel comfortable with the amount of space they have to get the shot off. So as a defender, you have to attempt to crowd their space and make them feel uncomfortable about shooting. In that article, Johannes also found that a players’ comfort zone requires more space (defender distance between the shooter and defender) when there is a negative height differential (meaning the defender is taller than the shooter).
    I believe that once we see percentage of opponents shots become long twos our defense will start to improve. You have to give up something and that something is long two.
    Last edited by MixxAOR; Wed Nov 24, 2021, 12:46 PM.

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  • golden
    replied
    MixxAOR wrote: View Post

    They need to control attempts first and foremost. I would be more worried if percentage was low but attempts were high (ie Knicks last year)
    If they were giving mostly contested 3's above the break, then you'd want to keep giving up that shot. I don't have the numbers, but it does feel like we're giving up a lot of un-contested or lightly contested 3's, so teams might continue to shoot a high percentage.

    There are 10 teams giving up more 3PA (per 100) than Raptors... but all of them are allowing a lower 3P%. If we were holding teams to a low 3P%, then you'd want them to take that shot all day long, rather than limit attempts.



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  • A.I
    replied
    Listening to the Will Lou and Blake Murphy podcast, they talk a lot about the defense and Blake makes a lot of solid points.

    - They play this type of defense because they don't have a natural rim protector, so they try to protect the paint by overhelping and allow their perimeter defenders to close out or contest shots on the perimeter.
    - Communication is a big problem they have.
    - Raptors are 29th in defensive rebounds, which also plays into why they play this type of defense to force turnovers instead of shot attempts.
    - Raptors are best in the league in terms of how long it takes opponents to take a shot. On average, opponents have about 8 secs left on the clock.
    - Raptors can play a more conservative defense, but Nurse has a successful track record of playing the current style, even through the first 9 games where the Raptors were 6th in defense.

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  • Dvdvideo
    replied
    What drives me nuts is when Matt starts saying it's a 3 possession game when we are down 9.........lol

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  • MixxAOR
    replied
    GLF wrote: View Post

    My thing is if we continue to guard the 3 as terribly as we have will those percentages actually go down? If you give NBA players wide open 3's consistently they are gonna knock them down. So I do think for those percentages to go down we have to start playing better defence. They aren't just going to go down on their own
    They need to control attempts first and foremost. I would be more worried if percentage was low but attempts were high (ie Knicks last year)

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  • GLF
    replied
    MixxAOR wrote: View Post
    Ok so Raptors are ranked 12 fewest shots in restricted area but 5th highest in percentage. And Raptors are giving up 13th fewest shots from 3 but opponent field goal is 4th highest.

    So some out of ordinary hot shooting from opponents. Once those percentages go back to league average DRTG will rise.
    My thing is if we continue to guard the 3 as terribly as we have will those percentages actually go down? If you give NBA players wide open 3's consistently they are gonna knock them down. So I do think for those percentages to go down we have to start playing better defence. They aren't just going to go down on their own

    Leave a comment:


  • MixxAOR
    replied
    KeonClark wrote: View Post

    That's his job, to keep fans excited and watching the game.

    Imagine Matt talked like the guys around here.

    "raps cut the lead, but we all know its fools gold"
    Matt Devlin: "We need this"

    *Patrick Patterson bricks his 7th open three

    Leave a comment:

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