The Defense in 2021-22

[Scraptor]

Thought this deserved its own discussion. We’ve gone from the 15th ranked defense to the 24th, and are giving up the 5th worst FG% and 6th worst 3PT% in the NBA.

We give up the 10th fewest points in the paint, but the 3rd most second chance points, probably because we rank 3rd worst in defensive rebounding %.

Why are we so bad, when we have a stable of above average defenders? What is going wrong?

Here’s some interesting fodder from John Schuhmann’s latest power rankings to start us off:

22

Toronto Raptors
Last Week: 20 ↓

Record: 9-12
Pace: 96.6 (28) OffRtg: 109.7 (9) DefRtg: 110.5 (25) NetRtg: -0.8 (19)

The Raptors continue to struggle defensively, with rebounding now as big a problem as any other on that end of the floor. In losses to the Pacers and Celtics over the weekend, they allowed their opponents to total 29 offensive boards and 43 second chance points. The Raps now rank in the bottom five in three of the four factors on defense: opponent effective field goal percentage (27th), opponent free throw rate (26th) and defensive rebounding percentage (28th). Minnesota (30th in each of the last two of those) is the only other team in the bottom five in more than one of the four categories. The Raps certainly miss OG Anunoby, but this defensive slide began before he was lost to a hip pointer.

The schedule might be partially to blame. The Raptors’ last seven games have been a six-game road trip (in which all six opponents had better-than-average offenses) and the dreaded first game after a six-game road trip. Their loss to Boston on Sunday was the start of their longest homestand of the season – seven games over 16 days, with three two-day breaks – and an extended stretch where they’re playing 17 of 21 at Scotiabank Arena. Of course, the Raps are just 2-7 at home to date.

They rank 30th defensively over the last 25 days, and the only other team in the Raptors’ vicinity over that stretch is the one they beat (with their most efficient offensive performance of the season) last week. They’ll finish the season series with the Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Week 7: vs. MEM, vs. MIL, vs. WAS

[A.I]

I don't think anything is going on. Just a young and inexperienced team. This team is the youngest in the NBA if you consider Dragic out of the roster.

Nurse does play an aggressive style defense and he has a track record of having a top defensive team with this style.

Fred has been good, Trent has been good and OG has been good. Pascal has been disappointing at times and the rest are inexperienced. Players are out of position, helping and gambling when they shouldn't.

Nurse could have probably squeezed out a few wins playing a more conservative defense, but he wants these players to learn his style even if it costs some wins this season.

[SkywalkerAC]

Still getting their rotations going and putting everything into forcing the dribble and contesting the shot. Looked great at times yesterday. Getting the rebound after scrambling like that is the finishing touch that we'll have the energy and acumen for in short order.

Near-perfect defense and strong rebounding are aspects that veterans win you games with. We're going to try to get there with one of the youngest rotations in the league. Lot of learning going on right now.

Some big lineups with OG at the 2, and getting Birch back to boot, might help as well.

[LJ2]

I don't think anything is going on. Just a young and inexperienced team. This team is the youngest in the NBA if you consider Dragic out of the roster.

Nurse does play an aggressive style defense and he has a track record of having a top defensive team with this style.

Fred has been good, Trent has been good and OG has been good. Pascal has been disappointing at times and the rest are inexperienced. Players are out of position, helping and gambling when they shouldn't.

Nurse could have probably squeezed out a few wins playing a more conservative defense, but he wants these players to learn his style even if it costs some wins this season.

It's all about the bigger picture like you've outlined.

The one thing I thought though at the start of the season was that they would for sure be in the playoffs this season. I still don't think they are tanking, but they aren't prioritizing winning either, just development. If they punt another season then I wonder if FVV and Siakam are a part of the long term plans for Toronto? Or are they the pieces you trade for a young star that fits the timeline of the young core?

Also gotta wonder if the NBA gives us another apology for Tampa in the form of a lucky lottery night again.

[grindhouse]

imo its a personel problem.

1. we need a center to anchor the defence so we can extend our defence correctly.

2. if fred is on the weakside of the floor its a huge issue because the way the raps play he drops down to help box out the big which he is not effective at.

and if the ball swings to that side he cant close out.

3. pascal is having tons of trouble getting over screens he either needs to go under and use length to contest on shots or raps need to switch.

those are the consistent break downs i see

[A.I]

It's all about the bigger picture like you've outlined.

The one thing I thought though at the start of the season was that they would for sure be in the playoffs this season. I still don't think they are tanking, but they aren't prioritizing winning either, just development. If they punt another season then I wonder if FVV and Siakam are a part of the long term plans for Toronto? Or are they the pieces you trade for a young star that fits the timeline of the young core?

Also gotta wonder if the NBA gives us another apology for Tampa in the form of a lucky lottery night again.

Fred I think is safe as long as he wants to be here since he is the PG and a damn good one at that (unless a trade for a star comes along). I think Pascal could get traded at some point, probably not this season but in the future. Barnes is almost similar to him with much higher potential. Trent and OG are also part of the future for this team and I don't think you want Pascal starting at C long term and he isn't a bench player, so trading him could be a possibility.

[Scraptor]

I don't think anything is going on. Just a young and inexperienced team. This team is the youngest in the NBA if you consider Dragic out of the roster.

Nurse does play an aggressive style defense and he has a track record of having a top defensive team with this style.

Fred has been good, Trent has been good and OG has been good. Pascal has been disappointing at times and the rest are inexperienced. Players are out of position, helping and gambling when they shouldn't.

Nurse could have probably squeezed out a few wins playing a more conservative defense, but he wants these players to learn his style even if it costs some wins this season.

I went back and checked our defense last year after we got GTJ and Kyle got hurt. We had the 5th best defense from March 28th - April 18th when he came back.

Our starters were usually (FVV or Malachi)/GTJ/OG/Pascal/(Baynes or Boucher).

But your point about inexperience is probably right… our worst on/off defensive ratings besides Pascal are GTJ and Scottie. Hopefully Nick can coach them up this year and next.

[GOLDBLUM]

One thing I'm curious about is whether the Raps are 'gilding the lily' a bit...

They brought in a whole slew of mobile, 6'9 guys with massive wingspans. ... Just that fact alone could do a lot of the work for you right there... But instead of letting that just naturally cause havoc, they try and steal on everything, deflect on everything, double on everything... I understand the impulse to lean heavily into that strength and try to make it absolutely suffocating... but for the amount of times we get beat and it burns us, I wonder whether we wouldn't be better served playing a little more conservatively and letting the wingspan/length do more of the overall work without always reaching and forcing it.

Too much gambling & losing = sharting yourself.

----

All that said, a lot of it probably comes down to injuries and lack of familiarity with one another.

[LJ2]

One thing I'm curious about is whether the Raps are 'gilding the lily' a bit...

They brought in a whole slew of mobile, 6'9 guys with massive wingspans. ... Just that fact alone could do a lot of the work for you right there... But instead of letting that just naturally cause havoc, they try and steal on everything, deflect on everything, double on everything... I understand the impulse to lean heavily into that strength and try to make it absolutely suffocating... but for the amount of times we get beat and it burns us, I wonder whether we wouldn't be better served playing a little more conservatively and letting the wingspan/length do more of the overall work without always reaching and forcing it.

Too much gambling & losing = sharting yourself.

----

All that said, a lot of it probably comes down to injuries and lack of familiarity with one another.

They absolutely could play more conservatively and it absolutely would translate to more wins. It's just not going to translate to the same type of advantage in shot opportunities for and against which they are seemingly focused on. Not sure if this approach is driven by their analytics team but it's a tough ask of the players to go this hard on defense all the time. Maybe after enough reps the guys get that Kawhi type of 6th sense on defense and start picking off passes without even seeing the pass LOL.

[slaw]

1. Injuries.
2. Some Inexperienced players/youngish team.
3. Lack of depth (also see #1)
4. Regulars underperforming (e.g. Boucher)
5. Zero presence in the paint/lack of deterrence
6. Scheme/tactics (too complex for personnel, figured out by other teams, etc.)

Some of it they can't do much about but #5 was a big problem last season and again this campaign and the team did nothing to address the problem, so you can't blame the players on that one. #6 is on Nurse.

[DanH]

The defence has not been great. Lots of reasons for it.

Re: the rim protection, having a real C thing. We do have that. Precious for all his disasters has overall been decent defensively, his rebounding really helps there. Khem has been OK as well even with his weaker defensive rebounding. We have a 106 DRTG with Precious on the floor, a 108.5 with Khem. Those would rank 11th and 19th, so pretty middling. But with both guys missing time, and with them deciding to try out a bunch of small stuff, those are the minutes where the disasters have happened that have been dragging the defence down (110.5, 24th overall).

That strengthens the argument that a really good C would make a huge difference, but also makes it clear that at least a decent defence (although I'm sure they are aiming higher) is within reach if we just get our C rotation back.

[golden]

1. Injuries.
2. Some Inexperienced players/youngish team.
3. Lack of depth (also see #1)
4. Regulars underperforming (e.g. Boucher)
5. Zero presence in the paint/lack of deterrence
6. Scheme/tactics (too complex for personnel, figured out by other teams, etc.)

Some of it they can't do much about but #5 was a big problem last season and again this campaign and the team did nothing to address the problem, so you can't blame the players on that one. #6 is on Nurse.

Good list. I don't think there's enough talk about the second part of #6. Even when our scheme was really successful in 2019-20, the Raptors were giving up a high number of corner 3's, but teams were missing. That's the shot every offense wants to take and one of the inherent weaknesses. Some pundits wondered if those misses might just have been variance. Our maybe it was just that teams didn't see that aggressive scheme on a regular basis, and weren't ready for it.

Now, after 2+ years of analyzing our scheme, it's pretty obvious that coaches have their role players ready to shoot from the corner. The other thing is the emergence of the side-step 3-pt move to avoid our "fly by" closeouts. Now, all it takes is a simple pump-fake and our guys are flying into the stands. Fans always seem to navel-gaze at their own team as if opponents are twiddling their thumbs and not constantly adapting and countering our tactics.

[slaw]

Good list. I don't think there's enough talk about the second part of #6. Even when our scheme was really successful in 2019-20, the Raptors were giving up a high number of corner 3's, but teams were missing. That's the shot every offense wants to take and one of the inherent weaknesses. Some pundits wondered if those misses might just have been variance. Our maybe it was just that teams didn't see that aggressive scheme on a regular basis, and weren't ready for it.

Now, after 2+ years of analyzing our scheme, it's pretty obvious that coaches have their role players ready to shoot from the corner. The other thing is the emergence of the side-step 3-pt move to avoid our "fly by" closeouts. Now, all it takes is a simple pump-fake and our guys are flying into the stands. Fans always seem to navel-gaze at their own team as if opponents are twiddling their thumbs and not constantly adapting and countering our tactics.

Personnel does matter as well and the personnel simply isn't as good, plus, all the injuries. I would like to see this team with its top-8 guys all healthy and playing before completely freaking out.

Having noted that, there are some patterns from last year that seem to be consistent problems. Also, if what they are doing is reliant on having 6 or 7 specific guys available at all times, then that's got to be adjusted cause you can't have a system that can only utilize half your roster.

[Hotshot]

Not too worry, this guy will help to fix our defense.

Raptors players reaction when they will be given a new set of data/video to look at:

[Puffer]

I think conditioning is an issue as well. These guys were not in the required shape to manage a full season of the required level of energy expenditure. We saw that about halfway through this season. A lot of guys, particularly the starters, were looking gassed entering the midpoint of the 3rd quarter of earlier. The absence of Pascal and Khem and various injuries also messed with being able to have 5 guys on the floor at one time who could go as hard as they have to to make Nurse's defensive schemes work.

I didn't see guys clutching at their shorts last night against the Bucks. The Raptors might be turning into the best-conditioned team in the league. As they get more used to this defense and stop making so many mistakes, there could be big dividends to collect. I agree that there is a fine line between improving conditioning and grinding players down, but that's why they have Alex McKechnie and his staff.

I'm still looking forward to seeing how it all works at the 41 game mark.