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  • Raptors favorites to win title

    Sorry to post this if it has been already, feel free to merge.

    I know it's early but....

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/n...le-favourites/

  • #2
    Oh Hollinger....you big fu%^ing tease!! Ok,I'll go order the bubbly then.

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    • #3
      Should the parade be down Yonge St. or Front?

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      • #4
        Should I...



        ....

        No, thank you.

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        • #5
          rocwell wrote: View Post
          Should I...



          ....

          No, thank you.
          What are odds making the finals?

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          • #6
            Bendit wrote: View Post
            What are odds making the finals?
            +500 ( 5/1 )

            Cavs -125 lol

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            • #7
              rocwell wrote: View Post
              +500 ( 5/1 )

              Cavs -125 lol
              Meh. Rather enjoy the ride than chewing my finger-nails.

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              • #8
                Last year after 18 games we were 6-12, ended up winning 48 (42-22 post-Gay)

                We're 13-2 right now. For arguments sake let's say we'll be 14-4 after 18 games (lose to Dallas & Kings, beat Lakers).

                If we produce the same 64 game record as last year afterwards, we'll be 56-26. And I think our record will be somewhere around there.

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                • #9
                  Looking at Hollinger's Playoff Odds right now is just so much fun.

                  Over 90% to get the number 1 seed! Expected to get 62 wins! 75% chance of making the finals! Best case scenario record is 77-5! Worst case scenario is still over .500!

                  Hollinger loves us right now. Or, at least his algorithm does.
                  That is a normal collar. Move on, find a new slant.

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                  • #10
                    And this is why old school guys hate analytics and computers lol
                    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                    • #11
                      KeonClark wrote: View Post
                      And this is why old school guys hate analytics and computers lol
                      Technically, this is why analytics and computer guys hate Hollinger.

                      His predictions are fine. The way he attaches probabilities to them is extraordinarily flawed.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • #12
                        DanH wrote: View Post
                        Technically, this is why analytics and computer guys hate Hollinger.

                        His predictions are fine. The way he attaches probabilities to them is extraordinarily flawed.
                        Are the probabilities flawed? Right now, the raptors are 11 games over .500 where the next best Eastern team is 4 games above .500. The Raps are 8.2 net points better than the next best Eastern team by margin of victory. The difference between the Raps and the Cavs so far this season is the same as the difference between the Spurs and the Celtics. The Raps right now are by far the best team in the East. Will that last through the playoffs? Who knows? All Hollinger's number say is that a team that's been this much better than it's competition is very likely to stay good.

                        If you take out all of the narratives surrounding the Raps and the Cavs and just looked at the records, I find his predictions reasonable.

                        Think of it this way. How do you think people would react to the Wizards at 13-2? I bet, if you swapped the Raps' record with the Wizards' the narrative would be that Washington is a runaway Eastern juggernaut headed for the ECF at worst. You'd have the same people saying those things if it were the Cavs or the Bulls at 13-2.

                        What I'm saying is that the Raps have the numbers of a title contender. Hollinger's math takes those numbers and says a team that's been this dominant has playoff success more often than not. This morning, those predictions say a team this far ahead of the rest of the conference can expect to make the finals 72% of the time. Take the names off the records and that doesn't seem unreasonable.

                        The counter argument is based on assumptions that can't be predicted by the numbers -- that the Raps will regress, that the Raps lack playoff experience, that the Cavs are bound to improve. We think all this stuff is likely to happen. And, it might. But, then Hollinger's probabilities leave room for that stuff to happen. If Hollinger's numbers says the Raps' are 43% favourite to win the championship, they lose more often than not. His numbers leave plenty of room for playoff disappointment.

                        It's just the longer the Raps play like this relative to the rest of the East and the more the math says the team looks like a runaway title contender, the more we'll have to start thinking of the team that way.
                        @EdTubb - edwardtubb at gmail

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                        • #13
                          Problem is the interpretation of his probabilities. This early in the season there's no such thing as a 100% chance to make the playoffs.

                          I think his simulations use too narrow a spread of results if the probabilities are that high this early.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • #14
                            DanH wrote: View Post
                            Problem is the interpretation of his probabilities. This early in the season there's no such thing as a 100% chance to make the playoffs.

                            I think his simulations use too narrow a spread of results if the probabilities are that high this early.
                            Is it too early? Has any team that's ever started 13-2 with a MOV over 10/game gone on to miss the playoffs? I can't find a way to find teams record after a certain start on Basketball-Reference, but it seems unlikely to me that that has ever happened. It seems especially unlikely in the East in 2014, when a .450 team is likely to make the playoffs.

                            I mean, yeah. 100% sounds like it's not the right call. But, if you run this season from today forward from today a bunch of times how many times out of a hundred does this team miss the playoffs? It would take a serious rash of injuries and even then the Raps have decent backups at most positions. If you're being generous and say it'll take 40 wins to make the playoffs this year, that means the Raps need to go just 27-40 (.402) the rest of the way to make it in. It's hard to see this team falling that far against an Eastern schedule, even if the team hits a rash of injuries to key players. It's probably never happened to a team that's started this hot.

                            I wouldn't be surprised if this team in this conference makes the playoffs literally every time out of 100.
                            @EdTubb - edwardtubb at gmail

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                            • #15
                              KeonClark wrote: View Post
                              And this is why old school guys hate analytics and computers lol

                              Their start was unreal. But every team hits bumps like injuries, and they will look 'human' again. We just have to remember these boyz were supposed to be using this year as another 'growth' year, championship talk wasn't even supposed to be in the mix until 2016 at the earliest... Man is it fun 'ball to watch though!

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