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Johnson's Shots & Fouls Per 36 Min, Impact of Jack's Return To the 2nd Unit

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  • Johnson's Shots & Fouls Per 36 Min, Impact of Jack's Return To the 2nd Unit

    From my blog NBA-25-15.
    Tuesday, March 30, 2010

    Johnson's Shots Taken Per 36 Minutes, J. Jack's Return To the Second Unit and Their Impact On Johnson's Foul Rate

    The purpose of this analysis is to answer three questions I have relating to Johnson's FGA, FG% and fouls committed.

    1. Do the number of shots that he takes per 36 minutes correlate to his fouls per 36 minutes?
    2. Has the return of Jack to the second unit positively or negatively impacted both Johnson's shot's taken per 36 minutes and his fouls per 36 minutes.
    3. When Johnson takes more field goal attempts per 36 minutes does he have a higher or lower field goal percentage?

    This analysis is through the Raptors first 73 games of the 2009-10 season, of which Johnson has played in all of them. For purposes of this analysis I excluded all games in which Johnson played less than 10 minutes of which there were 6. That left a universe of 67 games from which I culled the numbers.

    Summary of Analysis
    I used .25 shots per minute or 9 shots per 36 minutes as the summary demarcation point. Among the universe of 67 games there were 25 games in which Johnson took 9 or more shots per 36 minutes and 42 in which he took less than 9 shots per 36 minutes. The results show the following

    9 or mores shots taken per 36 minutes: Fouls per 36 minutes = 5.76 and FG% = 61.5%
    Less than 9 shots taken per 36 minutes: Fouls per 36 minues = 7.19 and FG% = 54.3%

    So the results clearly show that not only does Johnson incur fouls at a rate of 20% less but also has a FG% of 13% higher when he shoots 9 or more times per 36 minutes.

    Also since Jack has returned to the second unit Johnson is averaging only 8 shots per 36 minutes and 9 fouls per 36 minutes. Clearly the return of Jack to second unit has brought joy into the life of Johnson bashers.

    Conclusion: Would the Raptors benefit by feeding the big cat more? The numbers seem to indicate that.

    Summary numbers and link to detail numbers on blog
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  • #2
    mh no not really. Your numbers show very little.
    First you control for nothing in your descriptive statistics, second it might well be that when he shoots better he takes more shots and he got feeded more by the pg that recognize he has a hot hand thus you have the relathionship more shots-->shoots beter.
    As for the relationship between more fouls less shots, since you do not control for anything it could be that he simply commits more fouls against better opponents, the same opponents might be better defenders as well and thus leaving less second chance points to Johnson (which is his main way of scoring).
    You should implement a survival analysis possibly correcting for endogeneity for the first issue and at least control for something for the second issue


    • #3
      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
      Conclusion: Would the Raptors benefit by feeding the big cat more? The numbers seem to indicate that.
      My problem here is that its easy to say, "feed him more" but the guy is totally dependent on others for production. Someone has to facilitate his offense, getting him the ball in the right place. He has to be in the right place. It's easy to say get Bosh the ball more because he can knock down shots from anywhere if you give him room and if you move up on him he can beat you off the dribble. To Amir's credit he doesn't make many bad choices when he gets the ball... But he is highly limited in what he can do and so his choices are highly limited.