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Let's look at Kyle Lowry for a second. Specifically, let's notice how he changes his game when the team is behind. It's going to take a bit for me to set up the point, so bear with me.
All of the stats I'm citing are from Basketball Reference.
As of today, the Raps have attempted 796 field goals while leading, 652 while behind and 73 while tied. Similarly, they've attempted 304 free throws while leading, 194 while behind and 25 while tied.
If I count each free throw attempt as equaling .44 a field goal attempt (this is how TS% is calculated) I see that the Raps take 53% of their True Shooting Attempts while leading and 46.9% while tied or behind.
Considering the Raps are one of the top teams by margin of victory this year, these numbers make sense. A team that's ahead a lot will necessarily take more scoring attempts while leading.
This is useful, because I can use these numbers as a benchmark for the Raps' offence. If 46.9% of the Raps' True Shooting Attempts happen while behind or tied, we can expect that individual Raptors shooting numbers should follow the same pattern.
And they do, with one major exception.
Player | % of TSA ahead | % of TSA behind or tied
DD | .53 | .47
AJ | .51 | .49
JJ | .54 | .46
KL | .44 | .56
PP | .53 | .47
TR | .52 | .48
JV | .53 | .47
GV | .57 | .43
LW | .61 | .39
All of the Raptors shoot roughly in line with the teams' ahead and behind pattern, except one. Kyle Lowry. Kyle Lowry shoots way more if the team is behind than he does if the team is ahead. Indeed, that pattern is even more clear if we look at the team's shooting patterns minus Kyle's numbers. The rest of the team took just 45% of its shots while behind of trailing. Kyle took 56% of his in the same situation.
To my eyes, this matches what I've been seeing out of Kyle for a while now. When the game is in the balance, he tends to call his own number.
Indeed, when we look at the rest of his offence through the same lens we see the same pattern. Kyle is less likely to record an assist when the team is trailing or tied. 42% of Kyle's assists came while trailing or tied compared to 45% for the rest of the team. He's also slightly more likely to shoot a 3 while trailing. 49% of Kyle's 3pt attempts came trailing or tied compared to 46% for the rest of the team. (He's also more likely to commit a turnover, but that's getting into a serious small sample size.)
The conclusion is this: Kyle's offence changes dramatically when the team is trailing. Simply, he becomes much more likely to look for his own shot, and less likely to set up his teammates.
Is this a good thing? I don't know. The Raps have had some furious comebacks this year. Do we attribute that to Kyle's tendency to take over the offence while down? Maybe. After all, even though he's calling his own number more his true shooting percentage actually goes up slightly when the team is tied or trailing.
But, then the team has also performed well with leads -- they have that famous fourth quarter streak, remember? Could that success be a function of Kyle running the offence selflessly while the team is ahead? You may have noticed earlier the team gets to the line better while leading, could that be a function of Kyle's tendency get the rest of the team involved while ahead?
My pet theory explaining this is that Kyle doesn't really trust his teammates' offence. It feels like he's most comfortable running plays when the team is rolling. With the game on the line, he relies on his own drives or turns to DD as a safety blanket. Looking forward, I expect we'll see Kyle call his own number even more with DD out, especially in come back situations.
Who knows if I'm right. But, I'm going to start thinking of Kyle as two players. Ahead Kyle and Behind Kyle, 'cause the numbers show they're very different people.
All of the stats I'm citing are from Basketball Reference.
As of today, the Raps have attempted 796 field goals while leading, 652 while behind and 73 while tied. Similarly, they've attempted 304 free throws while leading, 194 while behind and 25 while tied.
If I count each free throw attempt as equaling .44 a field goal attempt (this is how TS% is calculated) I see that the Raps take 53% of their True Shooting Attempts while leading and 46.9% while tied or behind.
Considering the Raps are one of the top teams by margin of victory this year, these numbers make sense. A team that's ahead a lot will necessarily take more scoring attempts while leading.
This is useful, because I can use these numbers as a benchmark for the Raps' offence. If 46.9% of the Raps' True Shooting Attempts happen while behind or tied, we can expect that individual Raptors shooting numbers should follow the same pattern.
And they do, with one major exception.
Player | % of TSA ahead | % of TSA behind or tied
DD | .53 | .47
AJ | .51 | .49
JJ | .54 | .46
KL | .44 | .56
PP | .53 | .47
TR | .52 | .48
JV | .53 | .47
GV | .57 | .43
LW | .61 | .39
All of the Raptors shoot roughly in line with the teams' ahead and behind pattern, except one. Kyle Lowry. Kyle Lowry shoots way more if the team is behind than he does if the team is ahead. Indeed, that pattern is even more clear if we look at the team's shooting patterns minus Kyle's numbers. The rest of the team took just 45% of its shots while behind of trailing. Kyle took 56% of his in the same situation.
To my eyes, this matches what I've been seeing out of Kyle for a while now. When the game is in the balance, he tends to call his own number.
Indeed, when we look at the rest of his offence through the same lens we see the same pattern. Kyle is less likely to record an assist when the team is trailing or tied. 42% of Kyle's assists came while trailing or tied compared to 45% for the rest of the team. He's also slightly more likely to shoot a 3 while trailing. 49% of Kyle's 3pt attempts came trailing or tied compared to 46% for the rest of the team. (He's also more likely to commit a turnover, but that's getting into a serious small sample size.)
The conclusion is this: Kyle's offence changes dramatically when the team is trailing. Simply, he becomes much more likely to look for his own shot, and less likely to set up his teammates.
Is this a good thing? I don't know. The Raps have had some furious comebacks this year. Do we attribute that to Kyle's tendency to take over the offence while down? Maybe. After all, even though he's calling his own number more his true shooting percentage actually goes up slightly when the team is tied or trailing.
But, then the team has also performed well with leads -- they have that famous fourth quarter streak, remember? Could that success be a function of Kyle running the offence selflessly while the team is ahead? You may have noticed earlier the team gets to the line better while leading, could that be a function of Kyle's tendency get the rest of the team involved while ahead?
My pet theory explaining this is that Kyle doesn't really trust his teammates' offence. It feels like he's most comfortable running plays when the team is rolling. With the game on the line, he relies on his own drives or turns to DD as a safety blanket. Looking forward, I expect we'll see Kyle call his own number even more with DD out, especially in come back situations.
Who knows if I'm right. But, I'm going to start thinking of Kyle as two players. Ahead Kyle and Behind Kyle, 'cause the numbers show they're very different people.
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