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Expected Fluctuations for Ross' shooting %

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  • Expected Fluctuations for Ross' shooting %

    A lot of conversation lately regarding Terrence Ross has been regarding his inability to play at a consistent level. So I was wondering, what should be the normal level of "ups and downs"? Young players are known for fluctuating performance, and there is no one stat that can really be used to track performance. So while I would love to do a much more in depth analysis of multiple statistical categories for multiple players, that is simply beyond what I am willing to undertake at this point.

    That said, one thing that a player can "control" regardless of everything else going on in the game, is their FG%. I looked at 3rd year wings, and tried to see how far from their season average, would a typical single game fluctuate. So using each player's season average as the baseline, I tracked how often their night's FG% would end up in one of four ranges: .050 below, .100 below, .050 above, .100 above (5% or 10%). The 5 players that I choose, all averaged more than 25 MPG in their 3rd year and all played the wing position. All of them were primarily starters, with James Harden being the lone bench guy.

    Now since there would be some statistical overlap (5% is included in the 10% figures), I'm primarily focusing on the two "extremes" - a really good night and a bad night.

    Based on the figure, Ross has a 20% chance of shooting 35.2% or worse, and a 15% chance of shooting 55.2% or better.

    Ross - Season Avg FG% 45.2% (0.452)
    50 Below: 40.00%
    100 Below: 20.00%
    ~
    50 above: 25.00%
    100 above: 15.00%
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Harden came out with a perfect 27.42% (17 games of each) chance of either dropping or improving his FG% by 10%.

    James Harden (3rd year - 62 games) Season Avg FG% 49.1%
    50 below 32.26%
    100 below 27.42%
    ~
    50 above 38.71%
    100 above 27.42%
    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    Klay Thompson is 25.93% below by 10% and 22.22% above by 10%.

    Klay Thompson (3rd year) Season Avg FG% 44.4%
    50 below 35.80%
    100 below 25.93%
    ~
    50 above 34.15%
    100 above 22.22%
    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    Fournier (through 22 games) is an even 28.57% of either 10% change.

    Evan Fournier (this year is his 3rd year) Season Avg FG% 43.8%
    50 below 52.38%
    100 below 28.57%
    ~
    50 above 38.10%
    100 above 28.57%
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Afflalo was an even 29.27% of either 10% change.

    Afflalo (3rd year) Season Avg FG% 46.5%
    50 below 39.02%
    100 below 29.27%
    ~
    50 below 34.15%
    100 below 29.27%


    So what do all these numbers really mean? Well, the evidence suggests that while Ross is the least likely to greatly exceed his normal shooting % (15% was the lowest amongst the compared players), he is also the least likely to greatly underperform (20% was the lowest). He is much more even keeled at this point, which is really the definition of consistency.

    Now, this is a small sample size, but things so far seem more on track for consistent shooting than accomplished scorers like James Harden and Klay Thompson. Yes, there are other factors to consider (role, teammates, etc) but if a player can consistently shoot the ball, then everything else becomes easier.

    **Of note, of the 5 players compared, Harden and Afflalo had better FG% than Ross (which means that Ross is shooting more efficiently than Klay Thompson did in his 3rd year).

    So while Ross needs to consistently play defence, hustle, rebound, etc; it is at least reassuring to see that his shooting is very consistent and at a high level.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

  • #2
    Interesting.

    Thanks.

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks Axel. Good work. This kind of proofs Ross is not as inconsistent as most of us think. However it is his potential that makes us want him to accomplish a lot more. Like is often being said - he has the tools, the talent and the athleticism to be elite wing in the league. I hope he makes it. if not - he is still a good player it is just that we want better.

      Comment


      • #4
        footarez wrote: View Post
        Thanks Axel. Good work. This kind of proofs Ross is not as inconsistent as most of us think. However it is his potential that makes us want him to accomplish a lot more. Like is often being said - he has the tools, the talent and the athleticism to be elite wing in the league. I hope he makes it. if not - he is still a good player it is just that we want better.
        Well we still don't have any proof in other aspects of his game, but Ross is shooting better and more consistently than Klay Thompson did in his 3rd year.

        Opportunity is everything?
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

        Comment


        • #5
          People don't see the real issue here. It's not Ross, it's our system. Casey doesn't want Ross to play his full game.. and it's hindering him. To quote myself, Casey wants Ross to be the next Ray Aleen. Ross is not Ray. Ross is Ross.

          Casey seems to want Ross to shoot 3's. With DD out, Ross was starting to find a different shot within our 1st 3 games. Look at how he played against Cleveland again. You'll notice that he wasn't going in as much... it felt like Casey was holding him on a leash. I feel bad for him and JV, and wonder if Casey is the right coach for those two.
          Axel wrote:
          Now Cody can stop posting about this guy and we have a poster to blame if anything goes wrong!!
          KeonClark wrote:
          We won't hear back from him. He dissapears into thin air and reappears when you least expect it. Ten is an enigma. Ten is a legend. Ten for the motherfucking win.
          KeonClark wrote:
          I can't wait until the playoffs start.

          Until then, opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one and they most often stink

          Comment


          • #6
            Cody73 wrote: View Post
            People don't see the real issue here. It's not Ross, it's our system. Casey doesn't want Ross to play his full game.. and it's hindering him. To quote myself, Casey wants Ross to be the next Ray Aleen. Ross is not Ray. Ross is Ross.

            Casey seems to want Ross to shoot 3's. With DD out, Ross was starting to find a different shot within our 1st 3 games. Look at how he played against Cleveland again. You'll notice that he wasn't going in as much... it felt like Casey was holding him on a leash. I feel bad for him and JV, and wonder if Casey is the right coach for those two.
            This just isn't true at all.

            Ross get's plenty of touches, and two or three times a game, he's giving the opportunity to handle the ball, dribble and drive. He has the green light to do so. Most of these sequences end up being long jumpers.

            The guy just isn't that good at creating a shot for himself or others, and he doesn't drive enough.

            Comment


            • #7
              Cody73 wrote: View Post
              People don't see the real issue here. It's not Ross, it's our system. Casey doesn't want Ross to play his full game.. and it's hindering him. To quote myself, Casey wants Ross to be the next Ray Aleen. Ross is not Ray. Ross is Ross.

              Casey seems to want Ross to shoot 3's. With DD out, Ross was starting to find a different shot within our 1st 3 games. Look at how he played against Cleveland again. You'll notice that he wasn't going in as much... it felt like Casey was holding him on a leash. I feel bad for him and JV, and wonder if Casey is the right coach for those two.
              I would say there are a good few who see the issue.

              With Casey refusing to adapt and use players to their strengths (and promote an overall team approach), I wonder what happens when Raps are no longer sport .750 win percentage and are no longer sitting in 1st?

              The reason I ask is because those two things are the number one response to any questions of change or adaptation.

              You don't think NBA coaching staffs are not going to figure out who to shut down Toronto's currant - and only - game plan?

              Comment


              • #8
                bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
                This just isn't true at all.

                Ross get's plenty of touches, and two or three times a game, he's giving the opportunity to handle the ball, dribble and drive. He has the green light to do so. Most of these sequences end up being long jumpers.

                The guy just isn't that good at creating a shot for himself or others, and he doesn't drive enough.
                Yeah, I'll admit to him getting touches, and him not creating his shot.... but I still feel like the leash is there. Ross doesn't seem to wanna drive in, and I feel like Casey is part of the issue for that.
                Axel wrote:
                Now Cody can stop posting about this guy and we have a poster to blame if anything goes wrong!!
                KeonClark wrote:
                We won't hear back from him. He dissapears into thin air and reappears when you least expect it. Ten is an enigma. Ten is a legend. Ten for the motherfucking win.
                KeonClark wrote:
                I can't wait until the playoffs start.

                Until then, opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one and they most often stink

                Comment


                • #9
                  Cody73 wrote: View Post
                  Yeah, I'll admit to him getting touches, and him not creating his shot.... but I still feel like the leash is there. Ross doesn't seem to wanna drive in, and I feel like Casey is part of the issue for that.
                  Toronto plays a lot of iso. Ross can not score in isolation so touches are meaningless. JV can score in isolation and the limited touches he gets is more baffling. Regardless of how well Toronto is scoring half court isolation offenses is just terrible.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    My crackpot theory is that the reason we see so many ISO's this year is because it's an over-reaction to how we lost in the first round last year.

                    The Nets managed to cripple us offensively by clogging up the middle, and denying lane penetration and passes across the court, while trapping Demar and Lowry on the catch. We couldn't even initiate horns because neither Lowry or Demar could handle the traps.

                    That's why I think we see a bigger focus on more ball-handling and looking more to score in transition this season. And we added a guy like Lou Williams that can create his own shot as well.

                    If a guy like Ross, with his athleticism and length, could learn how to create his own shot consistently ... we'd never have to worry about getting an open shot. We'd have five guys on the roster that can draw double teams and pass out of them.

                    I know that sounds counterintuitive, and I'm not sure if I agree if it's the right approach but ... I get it. Having three guys that can create in isolation, and pay for zoning or double-teaming us would lead to more open guys and more ball movement. That's what I imagine the current coaching staffs holy grail is.

                    To me the problem isn't ISO, it's that Demar, Lou and Lowry are still learning when to pass when the defense gravitates towards them.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      How exactly is Pace defined? What goes into that calculation because last year we were near bottom of the NBA, but this year we've made dramatic strides up toward the middle of the list (last time I checked was a couple of weeks ago). Just wondering if the offence focuses more towards the guards/wings as opposed to the bigs because they are trying to increase the Pace statistic.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
                        My crackpot theory is that the reason we see so many ISO's this year is because it's an over-reaction to how we lost in the first round last year.

                        The Nets managed to cripple us offensively by clogging up the middle, and denying lane penetration and passes across the court, while trapping Demar and Lowry on the catch. We couldn't even initiate horns because neither Lowry or Demar could handle the traps.

                        That's why I think we see a bigger focus on more ball-handling and looking more to score in transition this season. And we added a guy like Lou Williams that can create his own shot as well.

                        If a guy like Ross, with his athleticism and length, could learn how to create his own shot consistently ... we'd never have to worry about getting an open shot. We'd have five guys on the roster that can draw double teams and pass out of them.

                        I know that sounds counterintuitive, and I'm not sure if I agree if it's the right approach but ... I get it. Having three guys that can create in isolation, and pay for zoning or double-teaming us would lead to more open guys and more ball movement. That's what I imagine the current coaching staffs holy grail is.

                        To me the problem isn't ISO, it's that Demar, Lou and Lowry are still learning when to pass when the defense gravitates towards them.
                        But last season when DD initiated all sorts of ISOs versus Brooklyn the lane was still clogged and he still shot under 40% (38.5%). The only thing saving him was the whistle - and we know what happens when the whistle is swallowed.

                        With regards to Lou, he is a specialist. There might be nights when he goes off but that is the exception not the norm. He is a guy you put out for 20 minutes a game and let him go to work watching him put up his 12-15 points.


                        The fix to the Raptors offense when they come up against good teams or good coaches, is more ball and off ball movement. I am not convinced this current level of offensive output is sustainable come playoffs.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
                          My crackpot theory is that the reason we see so many ISO's this year is because it's an over-reaction to how we lost in the first round last year.

                          The Nets managed to cripple us offensively by clogging up the middle, and denying lane penetration and passes across the court, while trapping Demar and Lowry on the catch. We couldn't even initiate horns because neither Lowry or Demar could handle the traps.

                          That's why I think we see a bigger focus on more ball-handling and looking more to score in transition this season. And we added a guy like Lou Williams that can create his own shot as well.

                          If a guy like Ross, with his athleticism and length, could learn how to create his own shot consistently ... we'd never have to worry about getting an open shot. We'd have five guys on the roster that can draw double teams and pass out of them.

                          I know that sounds counterintuitive, and I'm not sure if I agree if it's the right approach but ... I get it. Having three guys that can create in isolation, and pay for zoning or double-teaming us would lead to more open guys and more ball movement. That's what I imagine the current coaching staffs holy grail is.

                          To me the problem isn't ISO, it's that Demar, Lou and Lowry are still learning when to pass when the defense gravitates towards them.
                          The solution to bad ISO is...... more ISO.

                          ISO = Cowbell. lol.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            mcHAPPY wrote: View Post

                            The fix to the Raptors offense when they come up against good teams or good coaches, is more ball and off ball movement. I am not convinced this current level of offensive output is sustainable come playoffs.
                            I'm more worried about the team's defense, but yeah, I don't disagree.

                            I guess it all comes down to if you feel like Ross and DeRozan have already hit their ceilings as playmakers. If they have, then the offense might need some overhaul.

                            Of course, I feel that contradicts the whole argument that Ross deserves more touches. On the one hand people argue that Ross doesn't get enough touches ... but we also acknowledge that he's a shitty playmaker? I don't know what the heck that offense looks like.

                            And honestly, we should be put our development into perspective. Much is made of the Spurs incredible ball movement, but that's a system that has almost a decade of continuity, and three great playmakers (Parker, Duncan, Ginobili).
                            Last edited by bryan colangelo; Mon Dec 8, 2014, 03:38 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              golden wrote: View Post
                              The solution to bad ISO is...... more ISO.

                              ISO = Cowbell. lol.

                              The solution to bad ISO is ... better passing and recognition.

                              If people focused more on how DeRozan and Ross needs to become better playmakers, instead of obsessing about finding more shots for Ross and JV, than there'd be nothing to argue.
                              Last edited by bryan colangelo; Mon Dec 8, 2014, 03:47 PM.

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