Game# 69: Raptors @ Clippers, Wed March 16, 10:30pm EST

[chris]

yeah it's not gonna double but it might take a 20 or 30% jump over the previous year, which is still massive

[G__Deane]

Not to mention, if you were to move off of FVV, retention is the name of the game.

You can't trade for an all-star without one.

FVV is the leader of this young team, and a good one at that. That's worth something. 35m is a lot for a leader (I would say FVV is more than just a leader), but as you said if the new tv deal doubles (which is crazy to think about) and the new cap doubles roughly, you're essentially paying half.

Unless all revenues double, that's just not true. What percentage os the TV deal of all revenues? If it's the vast majority, you have a point.

[Shredder]

lowry got 100 million over 3 years in 2017... i think 35 million for fred in 2023 would be a similar type of approach from the front office, adjusting for 2023 prices as well as the fact that fred is not as good as lowry was in 2017 (if he were i think it'd be more). i'm just saying if he makes another all star team next year he's going to be negotiating for a deal that's going to make a few ppl around here very upset. but i trust this office to sign him to one that will age well, as their track record is strong.

another factor to consider is that the there will be a new network tv deal after the 24/25 season. despite the fact the ratings have fallen off in recent years, speculation is still that the new deal could still double the last (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaSpwZeovYg).

there's an argument to be made to just lock up all of our guys no matter the cost before that new deal is made, as they would all be major bargains come the 25/26 season even if they look like overpays initially.

Not to mention, if you were to move off of FVV, retention is the name of the game.

You can't trade for an all-star without one.

FVV is the leader of this young team, and a good one at that. That's worth something. 35m is a lot for a leader (I would say FVV is more than just a leader), but as you said if the new tv deal doubles (which is crazy to think about) and the new cap doubles roughly, you're essentially paying half.

[chris]

35/mm?....apples to apples i would take a chance on brunson at 20/mm and pick up some vet help with the 15 left over. ...imo....fvv is not elite nor will he ever be..hes a 6 fut 200 pound guy....these guys dont have a high ceiling

lowry got 100 million over 3 years in 2017... i think 35 million for fred in 2023 would be a similar type of approach from the front office, adjusting for 2023 prices as well as the fact that fred is not as good as lowry was in 2017 (if he were i think it'd be more). i'm just saying if he makes another all star team next year he's going to be negotiating for a deal that's going to make a few ppl around here very upset. but i trust this office to sign him to one that will age well, as their track record is strong.

another factor to consider is that the there will be a new network tv deal after the 24/25 season. despite the fact the ratings have fallen off in recent years, speculation is still that the new deal could still double the last (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaSpwZeovYg).

there's an argument to be made to just lock up all of our guys no matter the cost before that new deal is made, as they would all be major bargains come the 25/26 season even if they look like overpays initially.

[golden]

35/mm?....apples to apples i would take a chance on brunson at 20/mm and pick up some vet help with the 15 left over. ...imo....fvv is not elite nor will he ever be..hes a 6 fut 200 pound guy....these guys dont have a high ceiling

Brunson is FVV’s doppelgänger.

[gambler]

the raptors have been great at not giving out those crushing max deals to veteran players on the downswings of their careers, and i don't expect them to start any time soon. i don't see them giving siakam a super max, if he even becomes eligible (which i don't think is likely), but could see them giving him something with shorter term and higher or near max AAV (ie. the contract's lowry and derozan got).

i fully expect FVV to get something in the 35 million ish range in the summer of 2023 and for the usual suspects here who spend every one of their summer vacations freaking out about the raptors overpaying to retain their players to go absolutely apoplectic, and also expect that deal to look pretty good in short order once the new TV deal kicks in and the cap goes way up, because all those deals end up looking really good.

for all the complaining ppl do around here about the front office, they are elite at the two most important things - which is drafting and signing the core player deals. (is there a better non-rookie non-scrap heap deal in the entire league than fred's?). would be nice if they could improve around the fringes but no front office is perfect, and i have faith they'll figure it out

35/mm?....apples to apples i would take a chance on brunson at 20/mm and pick up some vet help with the 15 left over. ...imo....fvv is not elite nor will he ever be..hes a 6 fut 200 pound guy....these guys dont have a high ceiling

[Puffer]

...Looking forward to seeing what Barnes (20), OG (24), Achiuwa (22) and GTJr (23) can become in a few years. Maybe even Malachi (23)...

What I am most looking forward to but I also want to see how this young core plays with the improved Fred and Spicy P, both of whom have surprised most folks this year by coming back better than ever. The number of career highs and even franchise bests they have both achieved suggests to me that, rather than trading for a superstar, we might already have them in our (future) hands. Both playing at an All NBA/allstar level.

[G__Deane]

Who are the best players under 29 right now? They will be the ones contending in the finals 3 to 5 years from now.

i'm probably glaringly missing some names here, but that's basically the list:

Giannis
Doncic
Trae Young
Tatum
Embiid
Jokic
Morant
Shai Alexander
Booker
Donovan Mitchell

And (for now) the douchebag quotient is way down over the current crop of over 30 old guys:
lebron
Westbrook
Durant
Harden
.
.
.
.
I don't mind Beal and Jimmy Buckets
Paul George
I'm neutral on Kawhi (chip courtesy)

Must be missing somebody; I'm surprised I don't hate more of them

[inthepaint]

If we get a superstar it'll more likely be homegrown than through trade. I feel we'll get one through attrition, meaning they will become a star relative to rest of the league, as the current top guys are all age 30+. Durant, Curry, Irving, Lebron, Klay, Chris Paul, Harden etc these guys won't be the same in a couple of years. A lot of them are already hurt quite a bit and/or fussing about various things. Who are the best players under 29 right now? They will be the ones contending in the finals 3 to 5 years from now.

i'm probably glaringly missing some names here, but that's basically the list:

Giannis
Doncic
Trae Young
Tatum
Embiid
Jokic
Morant
Shai Alexander
Booker
Donovan Mitchell


These are awesome players, but frankly, I don't see anyone unbeatable and scary there (relative to, say, the peak lebron and warriors years where no one had a hope of getting near).There's a change of the guard already starting to happen. Last year's finals was Booker and Giannis.

In the very near future, the distance between the top 10 (which is said to be needed to win the chip), and solid all-star/all-nba caliber players doesn't look to be as wide as it once was. Big C's get hurt/banged up a lot. if that happens to embiid or even to Jokic somehow, are Pascal, Fred (or even Barnes in couple of years) that far off from that list? I don't think so actually. The only one on that list that actually won a title is Giannis, and Pascal & Fred got one under their belt already.

We're entering an era of parity and moving away from dynasties where for 2 or 3 years in a row people already know who's in the finals. Look at East standings. That's a reflection of increasing parity among players (the younger ones), and that bodes well for the Raptors.

[slaw]

The only guy close to prime Lebron is Durant and he will (hopefully) be hitting the slippery slope soon. There’s nobody else in the East with that “It” that really makes you worry.

Giannis is there now after the title (maybe not prime Lebron but close), though, the Raps and Nurse do seem to have the Bucks' number.

[golden]

Agreed but the odds of winning with a bunch of loveable homegrowns is infinitely smaller than if you sign/trade for an elite. I wish it wasn't that way that history prevails, even in Toronto. If everyone develops well, Freddy or Pascal may have to be our DeMar 2.0 trade fodder.

There are other semi-lebron's in the east now. Giannis, Durant/Kyrie, Embiid/Harden, Tatum/Brown/Smart that each present their own mountain to climb.

Anyway, just spit ballin', very happy with how this team is going.

The only guy close to prime Lebron is Durant and he will (hopefully) be hitting the slippery slope soon. There’s nobody else in the East with that “It” that really makes you worry.

[G__Deane]

i think he's saying that there's a roadmap to this team becoming much better than the one's that couldn't get past lebron. (i.e. maybe they can get over the hump).

which i agree with. and which i'd much rather cheer for than some disgruntled superstar that forced their way off of another team.

Agreed but the odds of winning with a bunch of loveable homegrowns is infinitely smaller than if you sign/trade for an elite. I wish it wasn't that way that history prevails, even in Toronto. If everyone develops well, Freddy or Pascal may have to be our DeMar 2.0 trade fodder.

There are other semi-lebron's in the east now. Giannis, Durant/Kyrie, Embiid/Harden, Tatum/Brown/Smart that each present their own mountain to climb.

Anyway, just spit ballin', very happy with how this team is going.

[chris]

Few years?! try next season and then the core might break up because they might not be able to afford a whole team.

Why?! cause FVV and GTJ are free agents in summer of 2023 - Fred will demand near max contract ($150 -$180 million) and GTJ will demand somewhere in the ($100 million-$150 million)

2024- Siakam SUPER MAX contract (over $200 Million dollars), OG probably similar to what GTJ will get and Achiuwa new qualifying offer contract $50-100 million.

Raptors bench will all be 905 players lol

the raptors have been great at not giving out those crushing max deals to veteran players on the downswings of their careers, and i don't expect them to start any time soon. i don't see them giving siakam a super max, if he even becomes eligible (which i don't think is likely), but could see them giving him something with shorter term and higher or near max AAV (ie. the contract's lowry and derozan got).

i fully expect FVV to get something in the 35 million ish range in the summer of 2023 and for the usual suspects here who spend every one of their summer vacations freaking out about the raptors overpaying to retain their players to go absolutely apoplectic, and also expect that deal to look pretty good in short order once the new TV deal kicks in and the cap goes way up, because all those deals end up looking really good.

for all the complaining ppl do around here about the front office, they are elite at the two most important things - which is drafting and signing the core player deals. (is there a better non-rookie non-scrap heap deal in the entire league than fred's?). would be nice if they could improve around the fringes but no front office is perfect, and i have faith they'll figure it out

[chris]

Disgruntled elsewhere superstar ie the Kawhi that takes that 50 plus win team over the top.

i think he's saying that there's a roadmap to this team becoming much better than the one's that couldn't get past lebron. (i.e. maybe they can get over the hump).

which i agree with. and which i'd much rather cheer for than some disgruntled superstar that forced their way off of another team.

[Hotshot]

Looking forward to seeing what Barnes (20), OG (24), Achiuwa (22) and GTJr (23) can become in a few years. Maybe even Malachi (23). Siakam and FVV are suddenly the older statesmen of the core and one might have to go with filler to land our next disgruntled superstar.

Few years?! try next season and then the core might break up because they might not be able to afford a whole team.

Why?! cause FVV and GTJ are free agents in summer of 2023 - Fred will demand near max contract ($150 -$180 million) and GTJ will demand somewhere in the ($100 million-$150 million)

2024- Siakam SUPER MAX contract (over $200 Million dollars), OG probably similar to what GTJ will get and Achiuwa new qualifying offer contract $50-100 million.

Raptors bench will all be 905 players lol