Game 73: Raptors vs Cavaliers, Thu Mar 24, 2022, 7:30 PM, SN

[inthepaint]

I agree that this is clear, that they will start the small group.

I just wish it was clear that it was a good idea. They've played 300 minutes together now, and are still not quite a break even lineup.

Now, the Birch lineups have also been about as poor. But at least you are buying a few minutes for one of those heavy minute guys if you are getting the same outcome. Leaving aside that the small 5 get crushed out the gate consistently and save their net rating back near break even because they play well later in games, not exactly the quality you seek out in a starting group.

But the reality is they will probably stick with it, so the hope is they just get better, even if there is little evidence that they are trending that way.

I understand your reasoning in wanting to change the starters; net rating at the beginning of the game is poor, change the lineup. Nothing illogical about that.

As someone that has worked with youth and young adults in sports as well as other settings, I have another theory for the relatively poor starts. It has to do with rhythm, and is more intangible. Players have a pre-game ritual. Everything factors in on how they start the game: from what they eat, to what they listen to on their headphones, to what teammates say in the huddle, to the introductions, to how motivated/energized/prepared the coach gets you (every player having a different personality and responding to differently to different things), to the type of crowd (or lack thereof)

There's a multitude of behind-the-scenes stuff we don't know about, and that the cold hard data would be hard pressed to fully capture. It often gets abbreviated as "the coach had (or didn't have) the team ready to play", but it's a whole universe. Raptors are one of the youngest teams in the league. Yes they're pros, but sometimes some of these things can influence how guys in their mid-twenties play the first 8 minutes of a game in front of thousands (then incidentally two days later in front of nobody, then thousands again).

It's not the first Raptor five-some that have started games relatively slowly, unfortunately. I'm not going to pretend to know exactly what it is pre-game and this is just a theory (as is everything that fans write here), but to me that can explain why (a) that lineup is relatively cold at first, but after some rhythm gets hot (with the same combination of players); and why (b) a lineup with birch starting have also been about as poor. To me we are more likely to fix that by addressing whatever it is that's preventing them from coming in pumped to start games, than we are by taking a good player out of the starting lineup and replace it with a worse one (eg birch)

There are also practical factors beyond this season. If there's a change in the starters with everyone healthy, it's by sitting Trent or Barnes. One is the best SG we've had since Derozan, a rare 2-way player capable of creating his own shot from multiple areas of the floor and hit clutch shots, at age 23, who is happy and wants to be here if we play our cards right. The other is the 4th overall pick, potential future franchise player that can play 1 thru 5 and guard 1 thru 5, in a dead-heat race for rookie of the year. With 9 games left Nurse won't (and given all that, shouldn't) sit one of them because the net rating of his 5 best players is not as good to start the game as it is at the end. Again, I totally get the rational behind it, but like others here I just don't see a change this season.

[Kagemusha]

If healthy, the small lineup is clearly the starting unit IMO. Precious and boucher first off the bench, followed by Thad, a few minutes for Flynn ( hopefully) and birch situationately. I'm not overly concerned about Embiid even against that small lineup as our trapping and collective defense seems to slow him down enough. Now if he can find a way to beat the trap and get the ball to harden or Maxey, an adjustment may have to follow. But realistically, how much better of a job can birch do on embiid straight up over scottie?

The team I'm mostly concerned about is Boston. They have found a groove and might be peaking at just the right time. Their D is killer, they have a tremendous scorer in Tatum, who seems to get what he wants against us, and have the defenders to slow pascal. A 4-5 first round match up with them might be worst case scenario for me.

That was the injured version of Embiid.
If he stays like that in the playoffs, I agree we have a shot.
But a healthy Embiid is almost unstoppable.

[DanH]

If healthy, the small lineup is clearly the starting unit IMO. Precious and boucher first off the bench, followed by Thad, a few minutes for Flynn ( hopefully) and birch situationately. I'm not overly concerned about Embiid even against that small lineup as our trapping and collective defense seems to slow him down enough. Now if he can find a way to beat the trap and get the ball to harden or Maxey, an adjustment may have to follow. But realistically, how much better of a job can birch do on embiid straight up over scottie?

The team I'm mostly concerned about is Boston. They have found a groove and might be peaking at just the right time. Their D is killer, they have a tremendous scorer in Tatum, who seems to get what he wants against us, and have the defenders to slow pascal. A 4-5 first round match up with them might be worst case scenario for me.

I agree that this is clear, that they will start the small group.

I just wish it was clear that it was a good idea. They've played 300 minutes together now, and are still not quite a break even lineup.

Now, the Birch lineups have also been about as poor. But at least you are buying a few minutes for one of those heavy minute guys if you are getting the same outcome. Leaving aside that the small 5 get crushed out the gate consistently and save their net rating back near break even because they play well later in games, not exactly the quality you seek out in a starting group.

But the reality is they will probably stick with it, so the hope is they just get better, even if there is little evidence that they are trending that way.

[KeonClark]

I don't feel great about meeting the Bucks. They are a little under the radar this season, but they know what they have to do and how to get it done, and they've also ramped it up after a relatively slow start. They really just need to avoid a half court offense initiated by Giannis attempting to barrel down the lane against us.

But I'm also not as concerned about the nets as most. Kyrie might very well be the most skilled in the game with the ball in his hands, but damn, they don't win much with him in the lineup. Its all about Durant in BKN, and Durant playing near his best might be enough to get through the east, but there's not a lot of quality help on that team. I think we'd have a chance against them.

Brooklyn needs to face either bucks or celtics in round 1, to ensure one of the 3 titans goes down early. Every other team is very beatable imo

[JawsGT]

Agreed. Nick has a set gameplan on defending Giannis and Embiid and Gasol or no Gasol, its been successful over the years. Harden isn't his superstar self anymore either.

Boston is peaking at the right time and 2 high caliber wings is tough to play against. Raptors also struggle with the high energy garbage man big men like Robert Williams.

Best case scenario is we play the Sixers and worst case is Boston.

I don't feel great about meeting the Bucks. They are a little under the radar this season, but they know what they have to do and how to get it done, and they've also ramped it up after a relatively slow start. They really just need to avoid a half court offense initiated by Giannis attempting to barrel down the lane against us.

But I'm also not as concerned about the nets as most. Kyrie might very well be the most skilled in the game with the ball in his hands, but damn, they don't win much with him in the lineup. Its all about Durant in BKN, and Durant playing near his best might be enough to get through the east, but there's not a lot of quality help on that team. I think we'd have a chance against them.

[A.I]

If healthy, the small lineup is clearly the starting unit IMO. Precious and boucher first off the bench, followed by Thad, a few minutes for Flynn ( hopefully) and birch situationately. I'm not overly concerned about Embiid even against that small lineup as our trapping and collective defense seems to slow him down enough. Now if he can find a way to beat the trap and get the ball to harden or Maxey, an adjustment may have to follow. But realistically, how much better of a job can birch do on embiid straight up over scottie?

The team I'm mostly concerned about is Boston. They have found a groove and might be peaking at just the right time. Their D is killer, they have a tremendous scorer in Tatum, who seems to get what he wants against us, and have the defenders to slow pascal. A 4-5 first round match up with them might be worst case scenario for me.

Agreed. Nick has a set gameplan on defending Giannis and Embiid and Gasol or no Gasol, its been successful over the years. Harden isn't his superstar self anymore either.

Boston is peaking at the right time and 2 high caliber wings is tough to play against. Raptors also struggle with the high energy garbage man big men like Robert Williams.

Best case scenario is we play the Sixers and worst case is Boston.

[JawsGT]

If healthy, the small lineup is clearly the starting unit IMO. Precious and boucher first off the bench, followed by Thad, a few minutes for Flynn ( hopefully) and birch situationately. I'm not overly concerned about Embiid even against that small lineup as our trapping and collective defense seems to slow him down enough. Now if he can find a way to beat the trap and get the ball to harden or Maxey, an adjustment may have to follow. But realistically, how much better of a job can birch do on embiid straight up over scottie?

The team I'm mostly concerned about is Boston. They have found a groove and might be peaking at just the right time. Their D is killer, they have a tremendous scorer in Tatum, who seems to get what he wants against us, and have the defenders to slow pascal. A 4-5 first round match up with them might be worst case scenario for me.

[planetmars]

If you are subbing a guy after 2mins, don't bother starting him... that's only done to appease a player. They were subbing out Barnes after 4mins, but I think Scottie wasn't as effective when everyone was in the lineup

Barnes has started every game this season he's played in.. so I'm not sure how well it would go in the locker room if he didn't start. But Nurse may also not care if we're down 5-10 points in the first quarter. His big adjustments come in after half time typically.

On the other hand we started both Precious and Khem against Philly recently. Khem was a team low -16, and the 76ers had 37 points in the first quarter. They ended up only scoring 88 by the end of the game.. so we obviously made the right adjustments and won.

Nurse isn't rigid. If something isn't working, he'll make a change. But I think the starting 5 will be the starting 5. Perhaps not the same 5 at half time every game.. but it'll be the 5 that starts.

[saints91]

Philly is the only team where our small 5 could get in trouble early.. but if we make a quick sub after 2 mins it might not be so bad. Nurse is good at making adjustments so I'm not worried.

If you are subbing a guy after 2mins, don't bother starting him... that's only done to appease a player. They were subbing out Barnes after 4mins, but I think Scottie wasn't as effective when everyone was in the lineup

[saints91]

I like the idea of Barnes starting at the point and Precious as the 5. FVV can go back to his role when playing with Kyle, playing more off ball. Siakam and OG will play the two other wing spots. You have Boucher, Thad, and Gary coming in off the bench. I think if Birch was healthier, he would get the nod over Achiuwa.

Having Gary off the bench spreads out the scoring, and balances the lineups a bit better.

Question is... is there enough shooting in the starting lineup? I think there probably is with Pascal finding his groove, and OG and FVV.

When we have Scottie, Gary, OG, FVV, and Pascal starting, the opportunities aren't there for every guy to be involved, as much as if you staggered the rotations.

[planetmars]

Philly is the only team where our small 5 could get in trouble early.. but if we make a quick sub after 2 mins it might not be so bad. Nurse is good at making adjustments so I'm not worried.

[gambler]

Birch to me should keep filling for starters when they're out, and then basically DNP when our top 7 guys are all healthy (the big 5, Precious and Christ) Barnes is never coming off the bench, that ship has sailed. Neither is Gary, he's earned his spot at least until a more bona-fide nba player is brought in.

agree....its the obvious starting five. i believe that birch is a situational player and if the raptors can go deep there will be many situations for him whether that be 5 minutes a game or 15. hes actually a great 9th man off the bench....in fact....the raptors just have a great bench now whereas it was only boucher and a half player in precious before the break.

[G__Deane]

I see very few scenarios where Birch should be the starting centre, even situationally. He's shown brief flashes but is not a starting C on a team with ECF aspirations. Just a bench guy.

[KeonClark]

So, Nick has clearly fallen in love with the Precious and Boucher pair off the bench, and who can blame him. So I'm thinking we don't get Precious starting until next year.

Meaning your starting options are the obvious three, then two of Barnes, Gary, Birch. Birch has not been great, but he's been serviceable, and he always looks better the more good players are around him, very much the platonic ideal of a role player. Depending on matchups, I could see them go back to the small starting look, or start one of the wings with Birch. The latter scenario is the interesting question you pose: if you start big, do you do it with OG at SG? Or do you push Barnes to the bench and have three shooters around Pascal and your nominal starting C?

I think Nick takes the easy way out and starts the small 5, with an early Birch sub like he was doing in January. Back then he was subbing Barnes off first to play with the bench and I suspect that would be plan A now as well. Stands to reason if they did start with the Birch lineup that they quick-subbed to back in January, it would be Barnes hitting the bench rather than Gary.

Birch to me should keep filling for starters when they're out, and then basically DNP when our top 7 guys are all healthy (the big 5, Precious and Christ) Barnes is never coming off the bench, that ship has sailed. Neither is Gary, he's earned his spot at least until a more bona-fide nba player is brought in.

[DanH]

Brooks has been a nice surprise, hopefully his three point shooting is closer to the last 3 games than the first 3. He’s a good fit off the bench and seems to play within the game. Good add!

Big question is should Gary come off the bench(still playing 30+mins)? I like the Scottie, FVV, OG, Siakam, and Birch or Precious lineups. Would love to see if Gary’s scoring off the bench would benefit the team.

So, Nick has clearly fallen in love with the Precious and Boucher pair off the bench, and who can blame him. So I'm thinking we don't get Precious starting until next year.

Meaning your starting options are the obvious three, then two of Barnes, Gary, Birch. Birch has not been great, but he's been serviceable, and he always looks better the more good players are around him, very much the platonic ideal of a role player. Depending on matchups, I could see them go back to the small starting look, or start one of the wings with Birch. The latter scenario is the interesting question you pose: if you start big, do you do it with OG at SG? Or do you push Barnes to the bench and have three shooters around Pascal and your nominal starting C?

I think Nick takes the easy way out and starts the small 5, with an early Birch sub like he was doing in January. Back then he was subbing Barnes off first to play with the bench and I suspect that would be plan A now as well. Stands to reason if they did start with the Birch lineup that they quick-subbed to back in January, it would be Barnes hitting the bench rather than Gary.