GAME 79: HAWKS AT RAPTORS; Tues. April 5th 7:30 on TSN

[GOLDBLUM]

...im done with the raptors....

lol dude.

Some guys just can't handle their ten-point-wins-against-a-team-clawing-to-elevate-from-the-play-in-to-the-playoffs-where-middling-guard-Malachi-Flynn-predictably-looks-like-his-usual-trash-self, I guess.

Was it not like a week and a half ago you were like "WHAT'S WITH THE LOSER ATTITUDE RR???? RAPS CAN WIN IT ALL."

(psssst... not much has changed. Freddy's had slumps before, hopefully he can get right, but other than that...)


gambler's on tilt

Try to stay level, brother.

[Dvdvideo]

Lol
So you're saying a healthy Raptors versus an unhealthy Bucks / Heat?

No, I'm saying we already have decent chance of winning that would be made even greater in the event of an injury, which is actually fairly common.

[KeonClark]

A Bucks Celtics 2nd round will be a bloodbath.

The entire playoffs is a bloodbath this year. there's no "1 vs 8 quick sweep" snoozer this year. You look out west, you got the clippers in the 8 hole, playing great lately and are expecting norm Powell and possibly kawhi Leonard back soon. Then you got the Nuggets in the 6 hole who will be getting Jamal murray back soon. Just a fascinating, unprecedented playoff season. There's probably 13 or 14 teams that could conceivably make the finals.

[LJ2]

The entire playoffs is a bloodbath this year. there's no "1 vs 8 quick sweep" snoozer this year. You look out west, you got the clippers in the 8 hole, playing great lately and are expecting norm Powell and possibly kawhi Leonard back soon. Then you got the Nuggets in the 6 hole who will be getting Jamal murray back soon. Just a fascinating, unprecedented playoff season. There's probably 13 or 14 teams that could conceivably make the finals.

Kawhi and Murray may return for the playoffs? That seems really unfair that they don't play the entire season and qualify to play at the most important point. Sure everyone is banged up but here you go Clippers, you get a fresh PG and now one of the all time best playoff performers in Kawhi. This has to be a joke.

[gambler]

lol dude.

Some guys just can't handle their ten-point-wins-against-a-team-clawing-to-elevate-from-the-play-in-to-the-playoffs-where-middling-guard-Malachi-Flynn-predictably-looks-like-his-usual-trash-self, I guess.

Was it not like a week and a half ago you were like "WHAT'S WITH THE LOSER ATTITUDE RR???? RAPS CAN WIN IT ALL."

(psssst... not much has changed. Freddy's had slumps before, hopefully he can get right, but other than that...)


gambler's on tilt

Try to stay level, brother.

tilt?....thats pretty hilarious since im holding a 100/1 ecf ticket that pinny is trying to sell for 19/1...if you do the math....i bought the ticket for a 5th of the current asking price and if they can bet the76ers the ecf line will be +600....middle a -600 with +10000 on betfair...do the math

i am level....and thats the reason im done and going to cash out if tehy get by philly .. .imo....nurse weighed the pros and cons of trying to incorporate malachi back on he floor and it was too big of a risk this late in teh season and in the playoffs....hes going wiht an 8 man rotation and thats not the bet i made at 100/1....i need 9....i told you guys that thad was a great addition when many here thought it was terrible....and i very well couldve been right RE the raptors getting to the ecf if they had a hi percentage guard coimng off the bench

maybe nurse will prove me wrong but im done.....they wont win the ecf wihtout a hi percentage guard off the bench....the lakres had argubaly the two best players in teh nba....and still had caruso for 25/game

[DanH]

This was a good win. Defence often looks a little disjointed without OG, but they did well overall I think. Birch was a -11, but that belies how solid he was defensively and with the starters - really took the bite out of Trae lineups for most of the night (-3 in 18 minutes). It was the ridiculous Thad and Birch lineups that caved (-8 in 7 minutes), why would you ever play those two together?

Really liked that they closed with Precious, if you aren't able to close small he's the one the go with, assuming you don't trust Boucher (and it's hard to even with his generally excellent play). Birch is your textbook nominal starter/minutes plug, not a closer. Neither is Thad. Gimme small ball or Precious in those crunch time minutes. Precious' shooting and decision-making might be a little unreliable still for crunch time but even having this conversation speaks volumes on how far he has come this year on both fronts. Precious as bench plug and occasional matchup-based closer is a great fit. He and Boucher really pop off the bench and they did so again in this one, really taking advantage of the Trae rest minutes, that's where the game was won.

And did it all with Fred having absolutely no shot, the threes weren't there and even the midrange jumpers were way off - until crunch time of course. Loved that Pascal passed it out to him with no hesitation for that final three, everyone bets on Fred no matter how many snake eyes he's rolled that game. Pascal was excellent and frankly might have played his best defence of the year in crunch time, he was incredible.

[golden]

This was a good win. Defence often looks a little disjointed without OG, but they did well overall I think. Birch was a -11, but that belies how solid he was defensively and with the starters - really took the bite out of Trae lineups for most of the night (-3 in 18 minutes). It was the ridiculous Thad and Birch lineups that caved (-8 in 7 minutes), why would you ever play those two together?

Really liked that they closed with Precious, if you aren't able to close small he's the one the go with, assuming you don't trust Boucher (and it's hard to even with his generally excellent play). Birch is your textbook nominal starter/minutes plug, not a closer. Neither is Thad. Gimme small ball or Precious in those crunch time minutes. Precious' shooting and decision-making might be a little unreliable still for crunch time but even having this conversation speaks volumes on how far he has come this year on both fronts. Precious as bench plug and occasional matchup-based closer is a great fit. He and Boucher really pop off the bench and they did so again in this one, really taking advantage of the Trae rest minutes, that's where the game was won.

And did it all with Fred having absolutely no shot, the threes weren't there and even the midrange jumpers were way off - until crunch time of course. Loved that Pascal passed it out to him with no hesitation for that final three, everyone bets on Fred no matter how many snake eyes he's rolled that game. Pascal was excellent and frankly might have played his best defence of the year in crunch time, he was incredible.

Not saying Fred hasn't earned it, but if you give an unconditional green light to an above-average NBA shooting guard and allow him to take 21 shots to get warmed up during a game - they are going to eventually hit their shots in crunch time. Regression to the mean.

[KeonClark]

Kawhi and Murray may return for the playoffs? That seems really unfair that they don't play the entire season and qualify to play at the most important point. Sure everyone is banged up but here you go Clippers, you get a fresh PG and now one of the all time best playoff performers in Kawhi. This has to be a joke.

Why should they not be allowed to play? They are members of the roster that had legitimate injuries. I'm sure the Clippers would have preferred to have Kawhi all year healthy and win 60 games and not be in this play in, just as I'm sure Nuggets wish they had home court rather than a giant question mark and a rusty Jamal Murray who hasn't played in over a year

[DanH]

Not saying Fred hasn't earned it, but if you give an unconditional green light to an above-average NBA shooting guard and allow him to take 21 shots to get warmed up during a game - they are going to eventually hit their shots in crunch time. Regression to the mean.

You know that's not how regression to the mean works. Regression to the mean just means you should expect the average performance of a player in any instance no matter what happened most recently. Which is exactly what Pascal's faith in Fred was based on: Fred is an excellent shooter, and so he had a very good chance of hitting those shots.

Saying "regression to the mean" is literally saying "Fred has earned it."

[golden]

You know that's not how regression to the mean works. Regression to the mean just means you should expect the average performance of a player in any instance no matter what happened most recently. Which is exactly what Pascal's faith in Fred was based on: Fred is an excellent shooter, and so he had a very good chance of hitting those shots.

Saying "regression to the mean" is literally saying "Fred has earned it."

Yeah, by my point is that if another above-average shooter had gone 3 for 20 during the game, the probability would also increase that he will hit the next one. Nothing particularly special about betting on Fred in that situation. It could have been GTJ.

[DanH]

Yeah, by my point is that if another above-average shooter had gone 3 for 20 during the game, the probability would also increase that he will hit the next one. Nothing particularly special about betting on Fred in that situation. It could have been GTJ.

But the probability does not increase that he hits the next one. It is the same for every shot.

My point is, most people cannot get past recency bias in those instances. Tougher to trust a guy who is "cold". Impressive that Pascal's faith in Fred overrode the natural tendency to overrate recent data.

[G__Deane]

Could conceivably have a Nets/Clippers Final. 2 eight seeds of play-ins? It's possible only becuase superstars have been missing for most/much of the season and the most likely year for that ever to happen.

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba/...jglcruakvutjpf

[golden]

But the probability does not increase that he hits the next one. It is the same for every shot.

My point is, most people cannot get past recency bias in those instances. Tougher to trust a guy who is "cold". Impressive that Pascal's faith in Fred overrode the natural tendency to overrate recent data.

I get what you're saying, but for example: if Steph Curry is a career 40% shooter from 3 and he starts the season 0 for 100... are we all not expecting him to go 80 for his next 100? And is that not pretty much what actually happens.

[LJ2]

Why should they not be allowed to play? They are members of the roster that had legitimate injuries. I'm sure the Clippers would have preferred to have Kawhi all year healthy and win 60 games and not be in this play in, just as I'm sure Nuggets wish they had home court rather than a giant question mark and a rusty Jamal Murray who hasn't played in over a year

Because I hate the Clippers

Also it just seems like an unfair advantage for one team to be entering the playoffs banged up and the other to have it's two best players fresh without the wear and tear of a long season and full of energy. I'd like to see players in a minimum number of games through the season before they qualify for the playoff roster.

[Kagemusha]

Kawhi and Murray may return for the playoffs? That seems really unfair that they don't play the entire season and qualify to play at the most important point. Sure everyone is banged up but here you go Clippers, you get a fresh PG and now one of the all time best playoff performers in Kawhi. This has to be a joke.

Actually a big gamble for the Clippers.
There was no guarantee they'd get into the playoffs with Kawhi sitting.
PG was also out for a long period of time.
The just happened to be really gritty and well coached.