Raptors Offseason 2022

[DanH]

In terms of how to turn Rudy into a scorer... how bout let's not and say we did and move on to someone that doesn't need you to completely shift your offensive schemes to consistently get them involved when they aren't good more than 3 feet away from the restricted.

Really feels like we are overthinking this. It is not hard to have a screener/roller/offensive rebounder involved in the offence. Khem Birch can't do any more on offence than he does (frankly a lot less) and our offence is just fine with him (actually one of the best on-court ORTGs on the team, the defence is where we suffer with him).

[LJ2]

I don't think I'd describe him as high motor, but he's fine, and is overall a very effective defender. Not a great rebounder but part of that is he's very help conscious.

I sort of like Precious' ability to bang with bigger guys, but still switch onto a smaller wing. He had some impressive points in the Philly series guarding both Embiid and Harden, sometimes on the same possession. Maybe I'm being a bit of a homer here wanting to see how things play out with Precious.

[DanH]

I sort of like Precious' ability to bang with bigger guys, but still switch onto a smaller wing. He had some impressive points in the Philly series guarding both Embiid and Harden, sometimes on the same possession. Maybe I'm being a bit of a homer here wanting to see how things play out with Precious.

I personally have no issue with them sticking to this approach with Precious after his gains this season. If they are targeting a C, I'd think they aim higher than Turner at this point, unless Turner can be had cheaply.

Honestly I think more likely if they move Gary they are trying to use him to add a prospect or mid-first draft pick because they don't think they can pay him after this year, and they try to get a team to bite on him as a win-now and re-signable piece.

[G__Deane]

No I was thinking just Motumbo (Suns) and Jama (Golden State). I probably should have included Stack as well.

Stack left after he was passed over for Nurse though

[golden]

I personally have no issue with them sticking to this approach with Precious after his gains this season. If they are targeting a C, I'd think they aim higher than Turner at this point, unless Turner can be had cheaply.

Honestly I think more likely if they move Gary they are trying to use him to add a prospect or mid-first draft pick because they don't think they can pay him after this year, and they try to get a team to bite on him as a win-now and re-signable piece.

Gary's highest value might end up as a trade deadline rental to a contender that's going all-in this year. Every contending team needs shooting, and that would also include the Raptors, so it will be interesting, for sure. Basically the same situation as how Powell brought us Gary.

[DanH]

Gary's highest value might end up as a trade deadline rental to a contender that's going all-in this year. Every contending team needs shooting, and that would also include the Raptors, so it will be interesting, for sure. Basically the same situation as how Powell brought us Gary.

Yeah, if there's not enough value on the market right now they could move him at the deadline, but I'm sure they are testing the waters at the draft.

[Primer]

how do you know that though?

They would want an upgrade on hield, that is GTJ, Flynn, sure... and then an unprotected first... max you put two. other teams wanting a center will be focused on "bigger fish" aka ayton.. so let them focus on that you focus on turner.

All the rumors articles about Turner say they want picks and young cheap players.

I'm not giving up any picks for Turner. He's up for a big raise and we're already cash strapped. He's an upgrade over Precious but not a big enough one to financially hamstring us to where we can't bring back one of OG, Pascal, or Fred.

[LJ2]

Is there a possibility or likelihood of the Raps signing Gary to say a one year on an overpay while waiting on TV deals to kick in? And are those TV deals expected to raise caps high enough to absorb the type of salaries our guys are expecting? Or is there just flat out no way to pay everyone?

[Primer]

Gary's highest value might end up as a trade deadline rental to a contender that's going all-in this year. Every contending team needs shooting, and that would also include the Raptors, so it will be interesting, for sure. Basically the same situation as how Powell brought us Gary.

I think we would take a decent 1st round pick for Gary so I'd expect him to be moved at the draft. Will at least add some excitement to the first round for me since we have a decent chance of getting in there on draft night.

[DanH]

Is there a possibility or likelihood of the Raps signing Gary to say a one year on an overpay while waiting on TV deals to kick in? And are those TV deals expected to raise caps high enough to absorb the type of salaries our guys are expecting? Or is there just flat out no way to pay everyone?

New TV deal kicks in for the 2025-26 season. So there's this season (22-23), then there are seasons 23-24 and 24-25 before those numbers would kick in. So two years, and in those two years our entire core outside of Scottie comes up for a raise (Fred and Gary next summer, Pascal and OG the summer after).

[TrueTorontoFan]

Really feels like we are overthinking this. It is not hard to have a screener/roller/offensive rebounder involved in the offence. Khem Birch can't do any more on offence than he does (frankly a lot less) and our offence is just fine with him (actually one of the best on-court ORTGs on the team, the defence is where we suffer with him).

Is it overthinking when you have a player who will cost over 40 million dollars who is expected to start who .. lets be honest cannot be a shooting threat on a team that struggles with their offence and their shooting. Am I really overcomplicating it.

Khem is bringing up some what aboutism. Birch frankly is a back up level player. We shouldn't be comparing the two but sure lets do it. Birch is a much better passer his passer rating ranks in the 48th percentile compared to Gobert who ranks in the 4th percentile. As an offensive rebounder Birch actually ranks in the 90th percentile compared to Rudy who ranks in the 82nd percent....


Now here is the key. You look at the amount of turnovers that the player has per amount of positive offensive possessions created for teammates Khem ranks in the 44th percentile rudy is in the 4th percentile. That means for Khem 8.8% of the time he is touching the ball it creates a turn over... vs Rudy who has a better offensive weapon on his team I might add in Mitchell .... at a 13.7% level.


The numbers for khem aren't amazing they are OK on the offensive end but the numbers for rudy are worse when you ignore the TS% which I already explained that yes he has a high percentage but that doesn't mean he is an offensive weapon. Let's be honest about this discussion. If you get rudy I am willing to admit yes you get better defensively but you will take a step back defensively especially for what you are proposing. I expect Scottie to make a step forward but not the type of step forward in his 3 point shooting that will make up for the loss of one of our best shooters going out for a guy who cannot shoot.

Rudy cannot shoot beyond 3 feet. This is disingenuous to suggest otherwise.




OK lets go further with this.


Less than 5 feet between player and basket:

Rudy 74.6%
Khem 56.9%

5-9 feet between player and basket:


Rudy 26.9%
Khem 51.0%


10-14 feet.

Rudy 50% (2/4) - not a good enough sample size.

Khem 41% (13/31)


Rudy is simply not good offensively and I can't believe I am arguing in favor of khem but for the amount of minutes khem plays yeah I'd prefer khem.


If you are JUST looking for a big body for what ever there are cheaper and better options. Heck get Hartenstein who would be a much better yet cheaper option as a two way player than Rudy. You want to know Hartenstein's TS%? +66% He ranks in the 97th percentile... younger, better passer, 97th percentile in block percentage. 95th percentile in rim defence, 78th percentile in rim as a passer. There is two key stats I have started to value in players which is portability and versatility. Portability essentially means a players ability to fit with 4 other random players and versatility is their defensive versatility. Now I will admit the versatility thing is sometimes muddled because of scheme construction so from that stand point you can ignore it sometimes. At the same time Rudy does not score high in either.

Perhaps I believe in Posittionless basketball more than others but yeah. I think in terms of FIT there are better fits than Rudy.


To make Rudy a real offensive weapon you have to be convinced that he can pass out of those spots.. be a better passer out of the short roll ...and you have to give him enough usage to reduce the impact of his non-shooting ways... It is actually why you want Barnes to have the ball more because while he is one of the smartest players I've ever seen... giving him the ball more if he can't shoot will reduce that deficiency because defences can't sag off him. Now when Barnes starts to shoot the league is in trouble but that's a whole other issue.


Like I said I like two way players. Nurse is a smart guy but why are we trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. He is not a god offensive weapon. He can score in one play type and that is literally it. Even if he is on the other side of the floor you just have to keep an eye out for back cuts and you still sag off him overall. as an opposing defence. He also isn't super super strong where he is like shaq where he is dunking over every single dude who comes within a meter of him. He is ... "not that guy pal".


I will admit ONE thing. There is a chance that drop coverage on this team could work ... I would prefer to have more versatility and not be locked into one style of defence with one player because it means if a team figures out your drop coverage scheme like the warriors for example you end up getting screwed because now you can't really switch to different styles.

I forgot one thing.. as rudy's touches went down Jazz offence went up.

[TrueTorontoFan]

All the rumors articles about Turner say they want picks and young cheap players.

I'm not giving up any picks for Turner. He's up for a big raise and we're already cash strapped. He's an upgrade over Precious but not a big enough one to financially hamstring us to where we can't bring back one of OG, Pascal, or Fred.

I would and then I would look to trade fred in the future. or even trade fred to NOP for the 8th nance, and garret temple for filler. Then I wouldn't boucher.

[TrueTorontoFan]

All the rumors articles about Turner say they want picks and young cheap players.

I'm not giving up any picks for Turner. He's up for a big raise and we're already cash strapped. He's an upgrade over Precious but not a big enough one to financially hamstring us to where we can't bring back one of OG, Pascal, or Fred.

and that is fair if you feel that way. I would do it if its only 1 pick in the future and not next year. But that is fair.


But if you are talking about financially hamstringing then why are you also one of the people arguing in favor of trading one of our best contracts for rudy?

[TrueTorontoFan]

Gary's highest value might end up as a trade deadline rental to a contender that's going all-in this year. Every contending team needs shooting, and that would also include the Raptors, so it will be interesting, for sure. Basically the same situation as how Powell brought us Gary.

I wouldn't say his highest value but he will still have value then yes

[TrueTorontoFan]

I personally have no issue with them sticking to this approach with Precious after his gains this season. If they are targeting a C, I'd think they aim higher than Turner at this point, unless Turner can be had cheaply.

Honestly I think more likely if they move Gary they are trying to use him to add a prospect or mid-first draft pick because they don't think they can pay him after this year, and they try to get a team to bite on him as a win-now and re-signable piece.

Regarding turner I agree I would aim for turner but I wouldn't over pay for him. I do think they missed a chance to swing for it this year but yeah.


I want players that FIT the system we have built.