Raptors Offseason 2022

[Hotshot]

Barnes displeased at Fischer for the OG rumors and Fisher following him:

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontorapt...tm_name=iossmf

[blackjitsu]

Barnes displeased at Fischer for the OG rumors and Fisher following him:

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontorapt...tm_name=iossmf

Yeah, I was about to post an article about this:
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/rap...160215511.html

It sounds like Scottie has no time for this

[DanH]

Is it overthinking when you have a player who will cost over 40 million dollars who is expected to start who .. lets be honest cannot be a shooting threat on a team that struggles with their offence and their shooting. Am I really overcomplicating it.

Yes.

They are quite capable of running a successful offence with a non-shooting threat. Khem takes a lot of those mid-paint looks because he can't blast to the rim like Gobert can. Gobert took 473 shots at the rim last year. And 26 in the 5-9 foot range. He basically never is forced into those looks because teams can't keep him to those shots. Gobert has some turnovers but keep in mind his percentage of opportunities number is high because he screens constantly and offensive fouls count as turnovers even though they are on possessions where he doesn't have the ball, and only half his turnovers come with the ball. Given his overall low usage that skews the turnover rate. Of course the Raptors wouldn't be having him create offence anyway.

Heck, look at Precious. He takes lots of shots away from the rim! 31% FG% in the 5-9 range. 36% from 10-14. 30% 15-19. None of that helps your offence. He developed a three, which is great, but even before he did the team did just fine with him on offence. They can absolutely score just fine with Gobert there as a rim threat.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Yes.

They are quite capable of running a successful offence with a non-shooting threat. Khem takes a lot of those mid-paint looks because he can't blast to the rim like Gobert can. Gobert took 473 shots at the rim last year. And 26 in the 5-9 foot range. He basically never is forced into those looks because teams can't keep him to those shots. Gobert has some turnovers but keep in mind his percentage of opportunities number is high because he screens constantly and offensive fouls count as turnovers even though they are on possessions where he doesn't have the ball, and only half his turnovers come with the ball. Given his overall low usage that skews the turnover rate. Of course the Raptors wouldn't be having him create offence anyway.

Heck, look at Precious. He takes lots of shots away from the rim! 31% FG% in the 5-9 range. 36% from 10-14. 30% 15-19. None of that helps your offence. He developed a three, which is great, but even before he did the team did just fine with him on offence. They can absolutely score just fine with Gobert there as a rim threat.

I gave the stats you brought up khem and said gobert is better than khem in terms of the range of things he can do and I just showed you he isn't.

You said some.. this isn't some the percentile differences are stark. If you wanna minimize it sure.

Now you are shifting things towards precious. As I said whataboutism. Let's focus. You said it right there at the end. Gobert is a rim threat. Currently that is all he provides offensively. Maybe you could argue that he is an elite rim rolling threat. Sure fair enough but the other stuff is moving the goal post and you gotta be honest about that. Low usage doesn't automatically skew turnoverrate.. It can make it higher or lower but we aren't talking about a low sample size.

26 is significantly less than 473 but don't you think they would use him more in those moments if he was better in those moments or are you trying to suggest that Quinn Snyder is that bad of a coach that they just misused Gobert? Both things can't be true.



Khem Birch had a lower usage rate than Rudy. He had an 11% usage rate. So if anything it should skew against that. Rudy had a usage rate of 17%.

Just for the sake of comparison Barnes had a usage rate of 19%.


Geez have I become he who must not be named?


Anyways point is other than a roll threat.. which we don't really need as much as someone who can put rim pressure WITH THE BALL IN HAND .... what does rudy provide offensively. He is not a good passer. Your whole premise is focused on him being an offensive weapon by turning him into a constant roll threat.. which we also don't really use as a play much anyways... makes no sense. Siakam and Barnes operate in that space anyways so again you are clogging up the lane ... you haven't really addressed how that won't be the case. This isn't like getting Marc Gasol here. Rudy is incredible defensively I have given that as a point but the offensive case for him here is just not true. You make it sound like we would be better with him offensively and that is simply not the case.


You want to give him 17% usage or more? and if you are giving him more who are you taking away from to make that work? Keep in mind his salary.

[Jclaw]

Taco Trey Kirby mentioned (tweeted) three teams interested in Gobert (Toronto, ATL, Chicago). Maybe because these are his three teams (cheers for the Bulls, lives in Atlanta, works with The Starters). But it's funny that all of the other Gobert tweets are about Chi getting close or Atl getting close. Which means of course, Toronto is getting close.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Sorry for usage I was wrong I looked at 2018-2019 season numbers this year he was 16.8 for rudy.


By the numbers to address your foul point per 36 khem fouls more and he screens as well. I am not even arguing in favor of Khem I am just saying Rudy isn't the offensive guy you think he is.. and to say oh he doesn't take 5-9 footers because teams can't force him into as if he is some shaq like beast is not true. he does sometimes catch the ball there and has to toss it out. It just so happens Rudy is not offensively versatile he does ONE thing and one thing only.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Taco Trey Kirby mentioned (tweeted) three teams interested in Gobert (Toronto, ATL, Chicago). Maybe because these are his three teams (cheers for the Bulls, lives in Atlanta, works with The Starters). But it's funny that all of the other Gobert tweets are about Chi getting close or Atl getting close. Which means of course, Toronto is getting close.

lol if og goes will you change your profile picture?

[G__Deane]

I don't pretend to understand how teams can fit multiple superstars on their team but we always seem to be up against the cap and can't sign players without jettisoning someone, even after losing Kyle $30M for comparatively nothing salary wise (-$20M?).

Lakers have lebron, Davis and Westbrook $$$$
Clippers can fit Kawhi, PG and Norm
Nugs have Jokic, Murray, Gordan
Nets Durant, Irving, Simmons
Bucks have to pay Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, Ibaka
Butler, Lowry, Dipo, Bam and Herro
Celtics fit Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart
Sixers Harden, Embiid, Harris

Raps Pascal and FVV are paid like stars but not mega stars unlike the top players on most highly ranked teams (I always think Fred is overpaid but the NBA is nuts). OG and Trent are middling comparatively and Thad is grossly over paid and the rest are paid like NBA relative paupers.

Why is the consensus that we can't afford to re-sign our 3rd-4th highest paid player and have to trade them? Is it simply that other teams are willing to spend over the cap or are their 4th highest paid players on down paid zero and have less expensive 3-5th highest paid like OG and Trent? Because they almost all have players paid more than Pascal and Fred.

[DanH]

I gave the stats you brought up khem and said gobert is better than khem in terms of the range of things he can do and I just showed you he isn't.

You said some.. this isn't some the percentile differences are stark. If you wanna minimize it sure.

Now you are shifting things towards precious. As I said whataboutism. Let's focus. You said it right there at the end. Gobert is a rim threat. Currently that is all he provides offensively. Maybe you could argue that he is an elite rim rolling threat. Sure fair enough but the other stuff is moving the goal post and you gotta be honest about that. Low usage doesn't automatically skew turnoverrate.. It can make it higher or lower but we aren't talking about a low sample size.

26 is significantly less than 473 but don't you think they would use him more in those moments if he was better in those moments or are you trying to suggest that Quinn Snyder is that bad of a coach that they just misused Gobert? Both things can't be true.



Khem Birch had a lower usage rate than Rudy. He had an 11% usage rate. So if anything it should skew against that. Rudy had a usage rate of 17%.

Just for the sake of comparison Barnes had a usage rate of 19%.


Geez have I become he who must not be named?


Anyways point is other than a roll threat.. which we don't really need as much as someone who can put rim pressure WITH THE BALL IN HAND .... what does rudy provide offensively. He is not a good passer. Your whole premise is focused on him being an offensive weapon by turning him into a constant roll threat.. which we also don't really use as a play much anyways... makes no sense. Siakam and Barnes operate in that space anyways so again you are clogging up the lane ... you haven't really addressed how that won't be the case. This isn't like getting Marc Gasol here. Rudy is incredible defensively I have given that as a point but the offensive case for him here is just not true. You make it sound like we would be better with him offensively and that is simply not the case.


You want to give him 17% usage or more? and if you are giving him more who are you taking away from to make that work? Keep in mind his salary.

Why the heck would he get more usage? He'll get however many offensive putbacks or pick and roll passes he can get, otherwise he'll be setting screens. If anything I'd think his usage dips a little here, though maybe it stays mid-high teens.

You aren't getting him for what he can provide offensively or to improve your offence. No one is saying that. What I am saying is the stuff he does provide is enough that he won't hurt you on offence very much if at all. Which is all you need from a player with his defensive impact.

As for the mid-paint attempts versus at-rim attempts, you don't want paint attempts outside those 5 feet. You want only rim attempts if you can manage it. You settle for paint shots away from the rim. Like, you get elite players who can survive on shots in that range, at like 1 PPP, on decent usage, but largely if you end up in the paint but can't get to the rim you are hoping to draw the defence and pass for a better shot. Not a role we'd want our C in no matter who they are, that's what we want Pascal and Scottie doing, and falling back on scoring from there if needed.

As for the various comparisons, my points are simple. I'm not moving goal posts. I'm saying, look, the guys we had at C were not exactly offensive dynamos, and yet our offence was very good, so I am not worried about Gobert providing tremendous value on offence to be able to have a good team offence. We know we don't need that. We've seen it, all year.

[DanH]

Raps Pascal and FVV are paid like stars but not mega stars unlike the top players on most highly ranked teams (I always think Fred is overpaid but the NBA is nuts). OG and Trent are middling comparatively and Thad is grossly over paid and the rest are paid like NBA relative paupers.

Why is the consensus that we can't afford to re-sign our 3rd-4th highest paid player and have to trade them? Is it simply that other teams are willing to spend over the cap or are their 4th highest paid players on down paid zero and have less expensive 3-5th highest paid like OG and Trent? Because they almost all have players paid more than Pascal and Fred.

Well, Pascal, Fred, OG and Trent are all up for raises either after this coming year or the year after. Oh, and Precious. Would be why there is a crunch coming. It's not right now, they are fine right now, and would probably be able to be fine in 23-24 as well, though it would be tight (this is less true if they do stuff like re-sign Boucher or use the MLE with term). The following year would be the real crunch, and the year after that when Barnes gets his big raise is when it would be rather a dramatic issue.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Why the heck would he get more usage? He'll get however many offensive putbacks or pick and roll passes he can get, otherwise he'll be setting screens. If anything I'd think his usage dips a little here, though maybe it stays mid-high teens.

You aren't getting him for what he can provide offensively or to improve your offence. No one is saying that. What I am saying is the stuff he does provide is enough that he won't hurt you on offence very much if at all. Which is all you need from a player with his defensive impact.

As for the mid-paint attempts versus at-rim attempts, you don't want paint attempts outside those 5 feet. You want only rim attempts if you can manage it. You settle for paint shots away from the rim. Like, you get elite players who can survive on shots in that range, at like 1 PPP, on decent usage, but largely if you end up in the paint but can't get to the rim you are hoping to draw the defence and pass for a better shot. Not a role we'd want our C in no matter who they are, that's what we want Pascal and Scottie doing, and falling back on scoring from there if needed.

As for the various comparisons, my points are simple. I'm not moving goal posts. I'm saying, look, the guys we had at C were not exactly offensive dynamos, and yet our offence was very good, so I am not worried about Gobert providing tremendous value on offence to be able to have a good team offence. We know we don't need that. We've seen it, all year.

You are the one who brought up usage as an argument. I keep saying that I worry about the offensive drop off considering that is our main issue right now if one wants to simplify things to that degree. You say pick and roll passes but usually we do short roll or pick and pop. It would be a lot more difficult to do that. If the whole purpose of getting him is to stop joel embiid its not like Joel Embiid has bad such terrible stats against Rudy. This isn't like Gasol where he is getting held to zero points. I asked you if you want him to get more usage because again you are suggesting that he isn't a threat to screw up the spacing. Let's say you have a Siakam, Scottie pick and roll with Gobert on the floor. Why wouldn't teams guard that in a drop coverage given that you can ignore gobert beyond 5 feet? The only reason why he would be able to not be a role threat is if you believe in his passing (hasn't shown that yet in his entire career) and you give him enough usage to do it.. otherwise he takes away siakams operating space and Barnes potential driving lanes as teams sage off him.. he also is not exactly going to be quick up the floor so he won't be a good target in transition for guys.


It is moving goal posts because you randomly brought up Khem to say we had similar players and my point was Khem is much more versatile offensively so its not the same player. Rudy is good at ONE thing and better than anyone in the league at that ONE thing but he does not have a diverse skill set. Our offence was good because we were good at things like transition and the ability for literally any player on the court to push the ball up the floor and to have potentially good offence in that way. Overall though our offence was NOT good if you look at the numbers. We were an above average offensive team but a good defensive team in the second half of the year. The offence was decent but it wasn't a juggernaught. I am not suggesting that 5-9 feet are the shots you want but you want a guy to at least be a moderate threat from there at some level. IT is moving the goal posts because you brought it up and then decided to shift things to talk about precious randomly rather than focusing on the original point made. Yes that is moving the goal posts.

I originally asked a simple question which is does rudy gobert push us into contention... and wouldn't he ruin our spacing offensively leading to an overall offensive rating decrease. If you take the second half of the season for precious why are you taking two shooters out of the starting line up in OG and Precious for Gobert?


You said the following "but largely if you end up in the paint but can't get to the rim you are hoping to draw the defence and pass for a better shot." this is why providing rim penetration is important especially for an on ball creator to become a "3-level scorer".


He cannot pass and he doesn't provide enough of a shooting threat away from the basket, yet you want to give away a two way player. On raw stats alone are the raptors better next year making that trade? maybe perhaps in the regular season.. which I have said but long term it isn't the type of trade that is a good trade. Beyond the fact that Rudy is not well liked in NBA circles so not sure how the culture fit is.. but that's a different discussion for a different day. Offensively I would rather stand pat and see if precious can start learning how to finish at the rim and make better decisions. when given opportunities at his age rather than investing in a player who will cost a significant amount of money above OG.



We are not trading OG and we are definitely not trading OG for Rudy. I can understand why some people who are desperate for a center want rudy... but if you are making an OG for center trade I would way rather have a more dynamic player than the one you are proposing. At that point just go for Ayton. I brought up Hartenstein. Here is another option Poeltl. If you are going to give up a significant asset I would rather have Poeltl and the 9th pick if possible I know salary wise that doesn't quite get you all the way there but you get the point.

I am not saying our offense falls off to be worst in the league but it would not be good and it definitely would not be good enough.

[TomAmnot]

I think Nurkic could be a good guy to take a look at. Since Portland seems to go hard after Ayton, and I would not be surprise if they make an offer for Gobert too.

[The Great One]

Barnes displeased at Fischer for the OG rumors and Fisher following him:

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontorapt...tm_name=iossmf

lmao

[TrueTorontoFan]

I think Nurkic could be a good guy to take a look at. Since Portland seems to go hard after Ayton, and I would not be surprise if they make an offer for Gobert too.

Defensively he doesn't fit what we want and isn't the best defender as well. Not terrible but not great. I think if we go for an upgrade on precious then lets go for an upgrade on precious otherwise roll with precious and maybe draft a guy like koloko or Jaylin williams.

[planetmars]

I don't pretend to understand how teams can fit multiple superstars on their team but we always seem to be up against the cap and can't sign players without jettisoning someone, even after losing Kyle $30M for comparatively nothing salary wise (-$20M?).

Lakers have lebron, Davis and Westbrook $$$$
Clippers can fit Kawhi, PG and Norm
Nugs have Jokic, Murray, Gordan
Nets Durant, Irving, Simmons
Bucks have to pay Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, Ibaka
Butler, Lowry, Dipo, Bam and Herro
Celtics fit Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart
Sixers Harden, Embiid, Harris

Raps Pascal and FVV are paid like stars but not mega stars unlike the top players on most highly ranked teams (I always think Fred is overpaid but the NBA is nuts). OG and Trent are middling comparatively and Thad is grossly over paid and the rest are paid like NBA relative paupers.

Why is the consensus that we can't afford to re-sign our 3rd-4th highest paid player and have to trade them? Is it simply that other teams are willing to spend over the cap or are their 4th highest paid players on down paid zero and have less expensive 3-5th highest paid like OG and Trent? Because they almost all have players paid more than Pascal and Fred.

It's just math. Look at the salary tables for each team.. they will add up to about the same. Some teams are willing to pay a lot of luxury tax to keep their team together (like Golden State). Others don't (like Phoenix who wants to walk away from Ayton). Utah salary dumped a fan favourite in Ingles once he got hurt. They are talking about blowing things up as well with all those Gobert rumours.


Lakers have nobody outside those 3, and is a big reason why they missed the playoffs completely. Monk and Nunn went there on super cheap deals. A lot of their signings were vet minimums. They also decided against bringing back Caruso as they didn't want a big tax bill.

Clippers are willing to pay a lot of tax because Ballmer uses the Clippers as a side hobby. The man is loaded.

Nuggets are going to be in trouble and I think every fan knows. This could be how Murray becomes available. They'll likely want to move Porter Jr first if they can, but they just gave him a huge extension. I mean they just salary dumped JaMychal Green to OKC a day or two ago.

Bucks wanted a chip and got it, but they may make some difficult decisions. Ibaka is only making about $9M and is a UFA. Lopez may resign for cheaper to stay with the team that brought him success. But there are rumours they might trade Middleton since their tax bill might get too high.

A lot of the Heat players are on rookie deals. Herro is not paid yet. But once he does, the Heat may have to make a difficult decision. Oladipo is likely coming back for a larger deal (right now he's making about $2M). I think they end up salary dumping Duncan Robinson by giving up a pick to do so.

Boston's salary structure is similar to Toronto's. But they will be a tax team next year (by about $7M) unless they make some moves.

76ers don't have much after their big three (incl. Tobias) and rumours are they want to salary dump Danny Green as well. Things will get difficult when Maxey gets an extension but they are a few years from that.