Everything Juancho Hermangomez

[Hotshot]

Banton and Champagnie seem like locks. That leaves no roster spots without cutting Svi.

I think Brooks is toast. We'd have to cut Svi to sign him and he's not worth it in my opinion. He sucked in summer league and Dowtin didn't and took his spot.

I think Juancho is battling Svi for a roster spot. If he out plays him at camp we cut Svi to make room for Juancho.

Brooks didn't suck but was widely inconsistent much like DJ Wilson.

Juancho is capable of stealing the last spot for sure but he needs to have a really good training camp in order to pass by Brooks and Wilson who are more of a known commodity within the Raptors organization and will likely be graded differently even if training camp small sample won't be as good as Juancho.

Svi should be gone and cut at this point.

[Primer]

Brooks sucked at summer league? He had one particularly bad game that crushed his average stats. Outside of that, he had one dominant offensive game where he almost won it by himself, one game where his outside shot wasn't there but he made up for it with smart inside scoring and overall play (big contributor to that final win that almost got them to the finals), and one quieter game.

I thought he looked pretty good, and the bits where he didn't look good were when he was asked to do a lot more than he'd be asked to do on the Raps. The cold shooting hurts his stats, but we know he's a good shooter, judging that on a teeny tiny sample of shots over 5 games would be silly.

Cutting Svi is not a significant barrier. Question really is as simple as which of the three they want. Doubt the guaranteed salary plays into it at all, they've left themselves enough room to not worry about that.

The competition at summer league was between Dowtin and Brooks and Dowtin won hands down not even close.

Brooks one job with the Raptors will be to come in and hit 3s, he sucked at that and Dowtin didn't. Brooks shot 27.5% from 3 in summer league on 10 attempts per game. Dowtin shot 36.5% from 3 and was basically our best player basically every game.

Not to mention Dowtin outplayed him in every other facet of basketball as well.

Dowtin 4.3 ast, 0.5 TO
Brooks 2 ast, 2 TO
Dowtin 3.8 reb
Brooks 3.3 reb

To me Brooks isn't a prospect he was a vet brought in to steady the bench while Fred isn't playing. Dowtin is the same thing, and he just seems straight up better.

Juancho could sub in for nearly anyone in the roster, I don't see Brooks or Dowtin getting minutes unless Fred is resting. Juancho just seems like a better fit if we're cutting Svi.

[DanH]

The competition at summer league was between Dowtin and Brooks and Dowtin won hands down not even close.

Brooks one job with the Raptors will be to come in and hit 3s, he sucked at that and Dowtin didn't. Brooks shot 27.5% from 3 in summer league on 10 attempts per game. Dowtin shot 36.5% from 3 and was basically our best player basically every game.

Not to mention Dowtin outplayed him in every other facet of basketball as well.

Dowtin 4.3 ast, 0.5 TO
Brooks 2 ast, 2 TO
Dowtin 3.8 reb
Brooks 3.3 reb

To me Brooks isn't a prospect he was a vet brought in to steady the bench while Fred isn't playing. Dowtin is the same thing, and he just seems straight up better.

Juancho could sub in for nearly anyone in the roster, I don't see Brooks or Dowtin getting minutes unless Fred is resting. Juancho just seems like a better fit if we're cutting Svi.

But Brooks wasn't competing with Dowtin. Dowtin was fighting for a two way. Brooks was ineligible for a two way and was fighting for a NBA contract (the one he already signed).

They aren't really the same type of players. Dowtin is an on-ball creator, Brooks is a spot up shooter (when utilized properly, which the Raptors would do). Brooks is there to provide shooting. Using 4 summer league games to evaluate their effectiveness as shooters relative to each other would be a really bad idea.

[Primer]

But Brooks wasn't competing with Dowtin. Dowtin was fighting for a two way. Brooks was ineligible for a two way and was fighting for a NBA contract (the one he already signed).

They aren't really the same type of players. Dowtin is an on-ball creator, Brooks is a spot up shooter (when utilized properly, which the Raptors would do). Brooks is there to provide shooting. Using 4 summer league games to evaluate their effectiveness as shooters relative to each other would be a really bad idea.

Brooks played backup PG for us last season. Same position Dowtin will play for us.

Brooks also stunk it up for the Raptors last season.
0.278 3pt, 0.289 FG
So bad with team at nba level and bad with team at summer league level. Not a good spot up shooter.


Dowtin is a 25 year old vet, he was signed to play minutes with the big team. Using the 2 way on him was just good use of roster space since he was eligible for a 2 way.

I'll concede Brooks is still fighting for the final roster spot, but I put his chances very low of getting it, largely due to the Dowtin signing, and largely due to him performing poorly every chance he's had. Svi was a lot better than Brooks and I don't see us cutting a fully guaranteed Svi to make room for Brooks.

Pretty sure the last spot is going to Juancho, who was proven to be a good shooter at the NBA level.

[DanH]

Brooks played backup PG for us last season. Same position Dowtin will play for us.

Brooks also stunk it up for the Raptors last season.
0.278 3pt, 0.289 FG
So bad with team at nba level and bad with team at summer league level. Not a good spot up shooter.


Dowtin is a 25 year old vet, he was signed to play minutes with the big team. Using the 2 way on him was just good use of roster space since he was eligible for a 2 way.

I'll concede Brooks is still fighting for the final roster spot, but I put his chances very low of getting it, largely due to the Dowtin signing, and largely due to him performing poorly every chance he's had. Svi was a lot better than Brooks and I don't see us cutting a fully guaranteed Svi to make room for Brooks.

Pretty sure the last spot is going to Juancho, who was proven to be a good shooter at the NBA level.

Svi was a lot better than Brooks? There's more to life than shooting. Svi was a disaster every time he stepped on the court, with by far the worst net rating of anyone playing significant minutes on the team. There's no upside to keeping Svi, and I sure hope they wouldn't do so to avoid paying out his guarantee. At least we don't know if Brooks can be useful (he showed minor signs of it last year), we know Svi is bad.

Also, Brooks played backup PG for us? By what measure, height? Brooks basically never initiated offence, he was used as a spot up shooter. He guarded opposing guards, sure, but with our defence he guarded everybody at some point.

Brooks is not an on ball creator. Dowtin is. They play very different potential roles. Of course, neither would be planned to play any role at all, but if Scottie/Pascal goes down with an injury, I agree Dowtin will get that shot. If Gary does, I think Brooks would be the more useful piece to try.

Now, of course there is plenty of debate to be had over Juancho vs Brooks. Juancho is in theory a more established shooter (though his year to year splits from 3 are hilarious, swinging wildly from 20-something to 40-something percent). But Brooks has a similar track record, just shorter (38% the year before last), which could be a benefit rather than a hindrance, you can argue Juancho is more likely to be set in his shooting ways.

Comes down to what they want. If they want another 6'9 guy, obviously Juancho has the edge, especially if they are looking for shooting (vs a guy like DJ Wilson). But with Champagnie on board in a bigger body 3+D role, maybe they want something different from the extra spot.

[Primer]

Svi was a lot better than Brooks? There's more to life than shooting. Svi was a disaster every time he stepped on the court, with by far the worst net rating of anyone playing significant minutes on the team. There's no upside to keeping Svi, and I sure hope they wouldn't do so to avoid paying out his guarantee. At least we don't know if Brooks can be useful (he showed minor signs of it last year), we know Svi is bad.

Also, Brooks played backup PG for us? By what measure, height? Brooks basically never initiated offence, he was used as a spot up shooter. He guarded opposing guards, sure, but with our defence he guarded everybody at some point.

Brooks is not an on ball creator. Dowtin is. They play very different potential roles. Of course, neither would be planned to play any role at all, but if Scottie/Pascal goes down with an injury, I agree Dowtin will get that shot. If Gary does, I think Brooks would be the more useful piece to try.

Now, of course there is plenty of debate to be had over Juancho vs Brooks. Juancho is in theory a more established shooter (though his year to year splits from 3 are hilarious, swinging wildly from 20-something to 40-something percent). But Brooks has a similar track record, just shorter (38% the year before last), which could be a benefit rather than a hindrance, you can argue Juancho is more likely to be set in his shooting ways.

Comes down to what they want. If they want another 6'9 guy, obviously Juancho has the edge, especially if they are looking for shooting (vs a guy like DJ Wilson). But with Champagnie on board in a bigger body 3+D role, maybe they want something different from the extra spot.

It just seems like a strong cognitive dissonance to argue Brooks is a spot up shooter we're interested in when he's only shot absolutely freaking terribly for us, including at the lowest level possible in summer league. If we're in on a guy who has 1 skill, he better be damn good at that one skill, not one of the worst in the league.

I'd take Wilson over Brooks too, he's at least shown he can do what we would want out of him. Rebound and score efficiently at the basket.

Brooks real stats are terrible, his advanced stats are terrible, what has he done to earn such admiration from you?

[DanH]

It just seems like a strong cognitive dissonance to argue Brooks is a spot up shooter we're interested in when he's only shot absolutely freaking terribly for us, including at the lowest level possible in summer league. If we're in on a guy who has 1 skill, he better be damn good at that one skill, not one of the worst in the league.

I'd take Wilson over Brooks too, he's at least shown he can do what we would want out of him. Rebound and score efficiently at the basket.

Brooks real stats are terrible, his advanced stats are terrible, what has he done to earn such admiration from you?

Is it strong cognitive dissonance to believe in larger samples over smaller ones? He's been a ~40% three point shooter in the G-League for years, was a ~40% three point shooter in college... Scattered samples in the NBA having mixed results and a 4 game summer league sample should hardly turn anyone's head on that.

Brooks hasn't earned any particular admiration. We're talking about a 15th guy. He's just very much a reasonable choice for that spot, just like the other guys are (though honestly I'd very much prefer we don't keep Wilson). Bit of a double standard there with Wilson, when has he shown he can rebound at the NBA level? Playing PF and C he's put up something like a 13% total rebounding rate over the past few years in the NBA, which would put him right in line with Khem Birch last season. Yay.

Wilson put up a 77% TS% last year for the Raps! In 4 games. Previous three years of real NBA play (120 games) he managed a sparkling 50.5% TS%, in spite of half his shots coming from three and another quarter at the rim.

Any of these end of bench guys are going to have massive holes in their games. Brooks the same as any of them. But I think it's a little odd to write him off when he really does look like he could potentially help address the one glaring need they currently have extremely limited depth in - if a shooter goes down, the whole team will struggle, we saw that last year as well. Otto already helps with that, one more shooter in the regular rotation, but depth beyond him is still a big question mark.

[Primer]

Is it strong cognitive dissonance to believe in larger samples over smaller ones? He's been a ~40% three point shooter in the G-League for years, was a ~40% three point shooter in college... Scattered samples in the NBA having mixed results and a 4 game summer league sample should hardly turn anyone's head on that.

Brooks hasn't earned any particular admiration. We're talking about a 15th guy. He's just very much a reasonable choice for that spot, just like the other guys are (though honestly I'd very much prefer we don't keep Wilson). Bit of a double standard there with Wilson, when has he shown he can rebound at the NBA level? Playing PF and C he's put up something like a 13% total rebounding rate over the past few years in the NBA, which would put him right in line with Khem Birch last season. Yay.

Wilson put up a 77% TS% last year for the Raps! In 4 games. Previous three years of real NBA play (120 games) he managed a sparkling 50.5% TS%, in spite of half his shots coming from three and another quarter at the rim.

Any of these end of bench guys are going to have massive holes in their games. Brooks the same as any of them. But I think it's a little odd to write him off when he really does look like he could potentially help address the one glaring need they currently have extremely limited depth in - if a shooter goes down, the whole team will struggle, we saw that last year as well. Otto already helps with that, one more shooter in the regular rotation, but depth beyond him is still a big question mark.

Juancho is a better shooter than Brooks. So if we need to add another shooter he's the clear choice.

[DanH]

Juancho is a better shooter than Brooks. So if we need to add another shooter he's the clear choice.

He is? Based on what sample? Juancho has a sample of 700 3's in his NBA career. He's averaged out to 35% on those attempts. But is extremely inconsistent. In any case, even 700 3's is not at the threshold of 3PT% becoming truly predictive. So if the team thinks Brooks' form looks better or believes in his shooting talent more, or has better insight into what sort of threes he takes and how that might impact success rate (Brooks has been assisted on fewer of his threes over his career, and takes a lot more above the break vs corner threes), I would hardly hold it against them to make the bet on Brooks instead.

Meanwhile, Juancho's season to season success or lack thereof on threes is wild. He was gangbusters (44%) to end the year in Utah (on less than 50 total attempts), but the prior season shot like 33% on a much larger sample, the year before that 34%. If they think Juancho's true shooting talent is closer to those previous two seasons and Brooks has the upside of a 40% shooter, even having a chance Brooks can put up true floor spacing shooting is worth a lot more than a solidly below average shooter. And Brooks has over his short career put up nearly twice as many threes per minute compared to Juancho, and taking a lot of threes is actually proven to be better for spacing than making them on lower volume.

I don't think it's clear cut one way or the other, which is all I'm really saying here. It's a camp battle. I can lean to one guy and you to another and we can be happy to disagree on who it should be, but ultimately if there was really a clear choice they'd have just not signed so many guys (to these sorts of deals anyway).

[Hotshot]

Juancho's has also been very unplayable in the playoffs thus far & is turning 27 years old so the ceiling is quite limited.

[LJ2]

He's competing for the 15th spot on the roster. He's likely not going to see any significant minutes. Literally the back-up to the back-up.

[Hotshot]

He's competing for the 15th spot on the roster. He's likely not going to see any significant minutes. Literally the back-up to the back-up.

This is why the backup of the backup does not have to score much but play without making many mistakes when his number is called. That means if you have the open shot, you better make the open shot. If you are late to your defensive assignments or make stupid fouls or make careless turnovers you are going to get the hook really fast under Nurse.

[Primer]

He is? Based on what sample? Juancho has a sample of 700 3's in his NBA career. He's averaged out to 35% on those attempts. But is extremely inconsistent. In any case, even 700 3's is not at the threshold of 3PT% becoming truly predictive. So if the team thinks Brooks' form looks better or believes in his shooting talent more, or has better insight into what sort of threes he takes and how that might impact success rate (Brooks has been assisted on fewer of his threes over his career, and takes a lot more above the break vs corner threes), I would hardly hold it against them to make the bet on Brooks instead.

Meanwhile, Juancho's season to season success or lack thereof on threes is wild. He was gangbusters (44%) to end the year in Utah (on less than 50 total attempts), but the prior season shot like 33% on a much larger sample, the year before that 34%. If they think Juancho's true shooting talent is closer to those previous two seasons and Brooks has the upside of a 40% shooter, even having a chance Brooks can put up true floor spacing shooting is worth a lot more than a solidly below average shooter. And Brooks has over his short career put up nearly twice as many threes per minute compared to Juancho, and taking a lot of threes is actually proven to be better for spacing than making them on lower volume.

I don't think it's clear cut one way or the other, which is all I'm really saying here. It's a camp battle. I can lean to one guy and you to another and we can be happy to disagree on who it should be, but ultimately if there was really a clear choice they'd have just not signed so many guys (to these sorts of deals anyway).

Based on the sample of his 6 year NBA career, 297 games, and 4655 minutes. That's a really good sample size if you ask me.

He's also not extremely inconsistent. Here are his 3P% by season.

16-17 0.407
17-18 0.280
18-19 0.365
19-20 0.341
20-21 0.327
21-22 0.348

Im seeing one down year in his 2nd season when he only played 25 games and took 50 3PA, by far the lowest of any year he's been in the NBA, and also 5 years ago.

Seems pretty reasonable to expect his career 0.351 3P% because he's right around there 5 out of 6 seasons.

[DanH]

Based on the sample of his 6 year NBA career, 297 games, and 4655 minutes. That's a really good sample size if you ask me.

He's also not extremely inconsistent. Here are his 3P% by season.

16-17 0.407
17-18 0.280
18-19 0.365
19-20 0.341
20-21 0.327
21-22 0.348

Im seeing one down year in his 2nd season when he only played 25 games and took 50 3PA, by far the lowest of any year he's been in the NBA, and also 5 years ago.

Seems pretty reasonable to expect his career 0.351 3P% because he's right around there 5 out of 6 seasons.

He hasn't cleared 35% for three full seasons. Don't see why that would be the expectation, that career average is being buoyed by early career success he hasn't seen since. If you are bringing him in as a shooter, a guy who will be around the 33-35% mark isn't actually what you want at all.

[Primer]

He hasn't cleared 35% for three full seasons. Don't see why that would be the expectation, that career average is being buoyed by early career success he hasn't seen since. If you are bringing him in as a shooter, a guy who will be around the 33-35% mark isn't actually what you want at all.

Really parsing hairs to argue 0.348 isn't 0.350.

He shot his career average last season.

That's a lot better than Brooks career average and a lot better than Brooks shot last season.

That's all he needs to be to win the final roster spot over Brooks.