Everything Bench Beauties

[A.I]

That's like saying Marc Gasol can play PG. Thad is a wing/power forward that can pass. He's not a guard. He'd get stripped of the ball or create a turnover if he was bringing it up. He can't replace Fred or Gary in the line up. And he can't guard out at the perimeter.

Just because we play position-less doesn't mean that we don't have a role for a traditional guard. Fred, Gary, Malachi, Dalano should all get minutes on this team. We need them.

Agreed. Thad's ball handling isn't there to play point forward. Pascal and Scottie can, Thad can't.

[LJ2]

Thad will be used the same way he was last season and see about the same minutes. He's not going to take anyone's minutes and I don't see any of the young guys that didn't have a steady role last season taking any of his.

We've loaded up on vets this off season (Thad, Juancho, JJ, Otto) which to me is a pretty good indicator the Raps are going to continue the trend of not playing guys that aren't ready. Raps want to make some noise this season.

[Primer]

That's like saying Marc Gasol can play PG. Thad is a wing/power forward that can pass. He's not a guard. He'd get stripped of the ball or create a turnover if he was bringing it up. He can't replace Fred or Gary in the line up. And he can't guard out at the perimeter.

Just because we play position-less doesn't mean that we don't have a role for a traditional guard. Fred, Gary, Malachi, Dalano should all get minutes on this team. We need them.

I'm not saying Thad would play guard, I'm saying Pascal Scottie OG and Fred can all play guard and would if Thad is in the game. We're not gonna play Flynn or Banton just because they're guards, and last year proved that out rather definitively.

Thad has WAY more playmaking ability than Boucher so that's why I think he slots into more lineups than Boucher does, but I hope both guys get good minutes and lots together as Thad really Elevated Bouchers game when they played together.

[planetmars]

I'm not saying Thad would play guard, I'm saying Pascal Scottie OG and Fred can all play guard and would if Thad is in the game. We're not gonna play Flynn or Banton just because they're guards, and last year proved that out rather definitively.

Thad has WAY more playmaking ability than Boucher so that's why I think he slots into more lineups than Boucher does, but I hope both guys get good minutes and lots together as Thad really Elevated Bouchers game when they played together.

I don't think OG is a guy that can play guard. He can be the focus of an offensive set, but not bring up the ball and make a play. He sucks at that.

Ultimately it comes back down to depth. If Pascal, Scottie and Fred are all playing.. we don't need much of the bench. Otto and Chris should get the lion share of minutes with that 6th player (whether that is Gary or Precious). That's 8 deep. Thad is the 9th player arguably. And if we're playing a team with a big center like Chicago or Minnesota.. I suspect Khem to get more minutes than Thad as well.

If two of Scottie, Fred and Pascal are not available.. I would imagine Nurse is going to Flynn or Banton more than Thad in that scenario as we'd need an extra ball handler.. not another wing/forward.

If OG is not available, then that's where Thad will become super beneficial like he was last year. I see Thad as our OG insurance. A guy that can defend bigger wings/forwards. Grab boards. Make plays from the perimeter. And can occasionally make a c&s three.

[DanH]

I'm no expert, but RAPTOR gives some weird results. Like it had FVV as a top 5 player in the entire league for a good chunk of the season, and it had Pascal and OG as bottom 20th percentile or something like that. I don't know how the algorithm works, but it might be too biased to on/off or other inputs. RAPTOR doesn't always pass the sniff test, basically, or at least LEBRON has far fewer instances like that, from what I've noticed.

None of the impact stats are good in smaller samples. They all try and the most stable ones are the ones that are heavily box score influenced, which are more reliable to predict their final results for the end of the season early on, but their end of season results are less actually valuable, unfortunately. No real way around it, statistically, as hard as they've tried. RPM went way too far chasing that rabbit and ended up basically useless for full season results. The others have done less of it (to varying degrees), so they have better end of season results (to varying degrees), and of course many try to incorporate different tracking stats, etc, that they hope stabilize faster than box score stats or correlate to on-court success better, but usually as ever it is one or the other so they are hurting either their early and mid season results or their end of season and multi-season results.

I went through them ages ago to figure out which one I liked best based on those inputs and weightings, and landed on EPM, but I'd have to go dig through again to remember which ones had which drawbacks.

[DanH]

methodology


stop bad faith please


realistically if one is using any sort of advance metric honestly it shouldn't be based on confirmation bias.

I'm rusty on LEBRON vs RAPTOR of late , so your insight into the methodology and what specifically you liked about them would be appreciated. I recall not being a huge fan when I looked into them, but it was a while ago and I can't recall why. I can dig into it but interested in your perspective.

[Primer]

I don't think OG is a guy that can play guard. He can be the focus of an offensive set, but not bring up the ball and make a play. He sucks at that.

Ultimately it comes back down to depth. If Pascal, Scottie and Fred are all playing.. we don't need much of the bench. Otto and Chris should get the lion share of minutes with that 6th player (whether that is Gary or Precious). That's 8 deep. Thad is the 9th player arguably. And if we're playing a team with a big center like Chicago or Minnesota.. I suspect Khem to get more minutes than Thad as well.

If two of Scottie, Fred and Pascal are not available.. I would imagine Nurse is going to Flynn or Banton more than Thad in that scenario as we'd need an extra ball handler.. not another wing/forward.

If OG is not available, then that's where Thad will become super beneficial like he was last year. I see Thad as our OG insurance. A guy that can defend bigger wings/forwards. Grab boards. Make plays from the perimeter. And can occasionally make a c&s three.

I'm pretty sure we're going 9-10 deep during the regular season this year, it would be really stupid not to considering all the veteran talent we have and the injuries last season due to over playing guys. Going all season 8 deep is a recipe for injuries as we saw last year. I'd peg Thad as our 8-9th man, alternating with Boucher depending on who needs rest. I'd put Birch as 10th man, and don't think Flynn or Banton will be in the rotation.

Seems like your still stuck on we need 2 guards on the court at all times which we just don't do. Everyone is supposed to be able to bring the ball up the court if the situation arises, and I'd say all of our starters are perfectly capable of doing so. So Thad would never been in a situation where he has to be the guy, unless he catches a rebound and we're going for a quick transition score.

Flynn and Banton got almost no minutes last season and I'd expect a repeat of that, not sure why you think it would be any different this year. We added Otto so they have even less opportunities now for minutes.

[golden]

I'm pretty sure we're going 9-10 deep during the regular season this year, it would be really stupid not to considering all the veteran talent we have and the injuries last season due to over playing guys. Going all season 8 deep is a recipe for injuries as we saw last year. I'd peg Thad as our 8-9th man, alternating with Boucher depending on who needs rest. I'd put Birch as 10th man, and don't think Flynn or Banton will be in the rotation.

Seems like your still stuck on we need 2 guards on the court at all times which we just don't do. Everyone is supposed to be able to bring the ball up the court if the situation arises, and I'd say all of our starters are perfectly capable of doing so. So Thad would never been in a situation where he has to be the guy, unless he catches a rebound and we're going for a quick transition score.

Flynn and Banton got almost no minutes last season and I'd expect a repeat of that, not sure why you think it would be any different this year. We added Otto so they have even less opportunities now for minutes.

Yep. And after the first 2 months of the season, you’ll probably have at least 2 normal rotation guys out with injuries at the same. Fred, OG and Otto are almost a lock to miss 10-15 games each season, let alone the rest of the roster.

Also, just wondering how the NBA is treating COVID this year. If they’re still testing, then that’s even more minutes available for bench guys.

[planetmars]

I'm pretty sure we're going 9-10 deep during the regular season this year, it would be really stupid not to considering all the veteran talent we have and the injuries last season due to over playing guys. Going all season 8 deep is a recipe for injuries as we saw last year. I'd peg Thad as our 8-9th man, alternating with Boucher depending on who needs rest. I'd put Birch as 10th man, and don't think Flynn or Banton will be in the rotation.

Seems like your still stuck on we need 2 guards on the court at all times which we just don't do. Everyone is supposed to be able to bring the ball up the court if the situation arises, and I'd say all of our starters are perfectly capable of doing so. So Thad would never been in a situation where he has to be the guy, unless he catches a rebound and we're going for a quick transition score.

Flynn and Banton got almost no minutes last season and I'd expect a repeat of that, not sure why you think it would be any different this year. We added Otto so they have even less opportunities now for minutes.

Nurse likes ball handlers in his rotation. It's why we always played guys like McCaw or Lorenzo Brown even though they were terrible. The goal this year should be to get Fred healthy for the playoffs, which should mean lowering his minutes to about 35 mpg. Or less even.

To do that we would need more ball handlers. Thad is not a ball handler. Flynn and Banton are. If we don't see improvements at all from these two guards, then yeah that will force Nurse's hands like it did last year. But we also only got Downtin as that extra guard depth, and he's a 2-way player so can't even be available every game.

And I do know that Pascal and Scottie are guards even though they are 6'8 or taller. I just think that if we're down Fred and one of those guys (which is very possible), or we are trying to save Fred from burning out / getting injured then Flynn and Banton are going to have to get minutes.

[Primer]

Nurse likes ball handlers in his rotation. It's why we always played guys like McCaw or Lorenzo Brown even though they were terrible. The goal this year should be to get Fred healthy for the playoffs, which should mean lowering his minutes to about 35 mpg. Or less even.

To do that we would need more ball handlers. Thad is not a ball handler. Flynn and Banton are. If we don't see improvements at all from these two guards, then yeah that will force Nurse's hands like it did last year. But we also only got Downtin as that extra guard depth, and he's a 2-way player so can't even be available every game.

And I do know that Pascal and Scottie are guards even though they are 6'8 or taller. I just think that if we're down Fred and one of those guys (which is very possible), or we are trying to save Fred from burning out / getting injured then Flynn and Banton are going to have to get minutes.

Injuries are the only way Flynn and Banton are getting minutes. Seems like we agree on that. The fact Dowtin is the only guard we added shows how little Nurse wants more guards to play. We're still 100% in on positionless basketball with mainly 6'9 players.

[planetmars]

Injuries are the only way Flynn and Banton are getting minutes. Seems like we agree on that. The fact Dowtin is the only guard we added shows how little Nurse wants more guards to play. We're still 100% in on positionless basketball with mainly 6'9 players.

And injuries are the main way Thad will get minutes too. Just like I mentioned a few posts above. There is a reason why Brooks played a lot last season. Masai wants position-less but Nurse likes ball handlers.

By my count the only guys that can handle the ball (ie, bring it up even if there is pressure) and make some plays are Siakam, Barnes, VanVleet, Banton, Flynn and Downtin.

Guys like Chris or Thad or Khem or Precious are not ball handlers. OG is rough. Gary is too laser focused on scoring every time he touches the ball.

Maybe Nurse would be comfortable with OG and Gary and a bunch of guys like Thad and Chris without an additional ball handler. But I'd be surprised if he was.

[LJ2]

And injuries are the main way Thad will get minutes too. Just like I mentioned a few posts above. There is a reason why Brooks played a lot last season. Masai wants position-less but Nurse likes ball handlers.

By my count the only guys that can handle the ball (ie, bring it up even if there is pressure) and make some plays are Siakam, Barnes, VanVleet, Banton, Flynn and Downtin.

Guys like Chris or Thad or Khem or Precious are not ball handlers. OG is rough. Gary is too laser focused on scoring every time he touches the ball.

Maybe Nurse would be comfortable with OG and Gary and a bunch of guys like Thad and Chris without an additional ball handler. But I'd be surprised if he was.

I disagree with that take. They want guys capable of putting the ball on the floor, not necessarily guys that are all capable of playing PG. Fred, Barnes, and Siakam are still the primary ball handlers and Thad, Gary, OG, and Precious are fine as outlets. Don't get me wrong I would love to have another player that can serve as a primary ball handler (Flynn or Banton if they are ready) but those other guys are fine for what we s expected from them.

[planetmars]

I disagree with that take. They want guys capable of putting the ball on the floor, not necessarily guys that are all capable of playing PG. Fred, Barnes, and Siakam are still the primary ball handlers and Thad, Gary, OG, and Precious are fine as outlets. Don't get me wrong I would love to have another player that can serve as a primary ball handler (Flynn or Banton if they are ready) but those other guys are fine for what we s expected from them.

There was a time early in the season where guys like Chris and Precious would bring the ball up. and it was a complete disaster. Nurse adjusted and made those guys pass it quickly to a Siakam, Scottie or Fred.

I think its our biggest flaw.. we didn't bring in another traditional guard. We were too fixated on that 6'9 type of player. But when push comes to shove Nurse will want guys that can create for others and handle the ball. It's his go to move and why McCaw averaged over 20mpg in 2020, and its why Fred was playing more minutes than anyone in the league last year. Armoni Brooks also got more minutes then he should have.

If Flynn or Banton don't show some major improvements, look for Fred to average around 40mpg again.

[Primer]

And injuries are the main way Thad will get minutes too. Just like I mentioned a few posts above. There is a reason why Brooks played a lot last season. Masai wants position-less but Nurse likes ball handlers.

By my count the only guys that can handle the ball (ie, bring it up even if there is pressure) and make some plays are Siakam, Barnes, VanVleet, Banton, Flynn and Downtin.

Guys like Chris or Thad or Khem or Precious are not ball handlers. OG is rough. Gary is too laser focused on scoring every time he touches the ball.

Maybe Nurse would be comfortable with OG and Gary and a bunch of guys like Thad and Chris without an additional ball handler. But I'd be surprised if he was.

Thad is part of the regular rotation and his minutes will not depend on injuries. He's gonna average close to 20mpg.
Banton and Flynn won't even see the court unless we have injuries. Major difference.

Brooks didn't play a lot, he got 11mpg over 13 games, and that's artificially inflated by garbage time minutes in blowout wins and the final 2 games where we rested starters. He was a frequent healthy scratch and if you add in the games where he warmed the bench he only averaged 8 minutes, again inflated by 2 blowout wins and the 2 games he got to start to end the season when we rested the starters.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Thad is part of the regular rotation and his minutes will not depend on injuries. He's gonna average close to 20mpg.
Banton and Flynn won't even see the court unless we have injuries. Major difference.

Brooks didn't play a lot, he got 11mpg over 13 games, and that's artificially inflated by garbage time minutes in blowout wins and the final 2 games where we rested starters. He was a frequent healthy scratch and if you add in the games where he warmed the bench he only averaged 8 minutes, again inflated by 2 blowout wins and the 2 games he got to start to end the season when we rested the starters.

that is the thing... we gotta get starter minutes down... easiest way to do that is for thad, otto, boucher, to all get 10-20 minutes each and taper down minutes of siakam, scottie, and og by around 8-9 minutes each. ideally to around 30 minutes max ideally even less like 28. When you also include otto getting back up minutes at the 2 for gary as a potential option... that is another 5-8 minutes there.


Also scottie filling in for the fred spot in back up situations and thad being needed as a playmaker ballhandler... yeah i think there are minutes for thad.

The toughest fight for minutes will be banton and flynn... the first 10 games are crucial.