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  • #76
    TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

    I gave other metrics too but good to know
    Sure, and your other metrics matched what we already discussed - that the less reliable defensive stats preferred Otto, which makes perfect sense anyway.

    But your post listed 5 sets of numbers and 3 of them were BPM, which is terrible. My only point was a) you said I liked a stat that I actually despise and I think it's fair to point that out regardless of whether you also gave other metrics, and b) you are giving a lot of shine to the bad stat compared to the better ones, proportionally.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #77
      DanH wrote: View Post

      Sure, and your other metrics matched what we already discussed - that the less reliable defensive stats preferred Otto, which makes perfect sense anyway.

      But your post listed 5 sets of numbers and 3 of them were BPM, which is terrible. My only point was a) you said I liked a stat that I actually despise and I think it's fair to point that out regardless of whether you also gave other metrics, and b) you are giving a lot of shine to the bad stat compared to the better ones, proportionally.
      I prefer the dlebron or raptor one or darko which all agree

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      • #78
        TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

        I prefer the dlebron or raptor one or darko which all agree
        Do you prefer those based on methodology or confirmation bias from the results?
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #79
          TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

          I prefer the dlebron or raptor one or darko which all agree
          I'm not not sure about RAPTOR, except that it's a great name for a stat.

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          • #80
            Im curious whether any of the young guys could edge out Thad for minutes as the season progresses. He better be ready to shoot at a high clip or Banton, Champagnie or even Koloko will step on in.

            Or the core front court guys may just too good to keep off the court. We’ll see.

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            • #81
              DanH wrote: View Post

              Do you prefer those based on methodology or confirmation bias from the results?
              methodology


              stop bad faith please


              realistically if one is using any sort of advance metric honestly it shouldn't be based on confirmation bias.
              Last edited by TrueTorontoFan; Thu Sep 15, 2022, 01:16 AM.

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              • #82
                golden wrote: View Post

                I'm not not sure about RAPTOR, except that it's a great name for a stat.
                as I understand it the raptor metric is similar to the lebron but it also incorporates player tracking data. no advanced metric is perfect there are things like chemistry, coaching, system ... other contextual factors that remain difficult to quantify.

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                • #83
                  SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                  Im curious whether any of the young guys could edge out Thad for minutes as the season progresses. He better be ready to shoot at a high clip or Banton, Champagnie or even Koloko will step on in.

                  Or the core front court guys may just too good to keep off the court. We’ll see.
                  It's going to take a lot to bump Thad down or Thad has to seriously crap the bed. Nurse, like most coaches in his position, will trust the vet over the young player 10 out of 10 times. Only way to take Thad's minutes is to flat out, out play him and force Nurse to make that change.

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                  • #84
                    TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

                    as I understand it the raptor metric is similar to the lebron but it also incorporates player tracking data. no advanced metric is perfect there are things like chemistry, coaching, system ... other contextual factors that remain difficult to quantify.
                    I'm no expert, but RAPTOR gives some weird results. Like it had FVV as a top 5 player in the entire league for a good chunk of the season, and it had Pascal and OG as bottom 20th percentile or something like that. I don't know how the algorithm works, but it might be too biased to on/off or other inputs. RAPTOR doesn't always pass the sniff test, basically, or at least LEBRON has far fewer instances like that, from what I've noticed.

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                    • #85
                      LJ2 wrote: View Post

                      It's going to take a lot to bump Thad down or Thad has to seriously crap the bed. Nurse, like most coaches in his position, will trust the vet over the young player 10 out of 10 times. Only way to take Thad's minutes is to flat out, out play him and force Nurse to make that change.
                      Nurse does like his vets. But we have quite a few on this roster now. Boucher, Porter and Birch are all vets now, and they are on the team. I don't think Nurse will play Thad more than Precious or Scottie even though those guys are young. Gary, Malachi and Dalano are all guards, so their playing time shouldn't be affected by Thad so much.

                      Thad will definitely get more minutes than the fringe guys like Hernangomez or Jackson, or whoever wins the camp battle. But we're at this point looking at the 9/10th man.

                      Where I think Thad becomes super useful is as injury depth. He was really important for us when OG went down in the second half. But if we're operating at 100% I don't see him getting that many minutes. Personally I'd rather give minutes to Chris and Otto before him. And depending on matchups even Khem.

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                      • #86
                        planetmars wrote: View Post

                        Nurse does like his vets. But we have quite a few on this roster now. Boucher, Porter and Birch are all vets now, and they are on the team. I don't think Nurse will play Thad more than Precious or Scottie even though those guys are young. Gary, Malachi and Dalano are all guards, so their playing time shouldn't be affected by Thad so much.

                        Thad will definitely get more minutes than the fringe guys like Hernangomez or Jackson, or whoever wins the camp battle. But we're at this point looking at the 9/10th man.

                        Where I think Thad becomes super useful is as injury depth. He was really important for us when OG went down in the second half. But if we're operating at 100% I don't see him getting that many minutes. Personally I'd rather give minutes to Chris and Otto before him. And depending on matchups even Khem.
                        We don't play 2 guards at all times so assuming Thad isn't competing for minutes with Flynn and Banton isn't correct, and he's above both those guys, and arguably above Boucher as well, and definitely above Birch.

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                        • #87
                          Primer wrote: View Post

                          We don't play 2 guards at all times so assuming Thad isn't competing for minutes with Flynn and Banton isn't correct, and he's above both those guys, and arguably above Boucher as well, and definitely above Birch.
                          Thad is not a guy that can play guard. Even though we're position-less he can't dribble and is at best a catch and shoot guy when he's taking a shot. His best skills on defense is when he's covering a bigger player and not a perimeter player.

                          Banton and Flynn aren't the greatest.. and that's mostly why they may not play much. But if Fred is out of the game for whatever reason we're not going to replace most of his minutes with Thad's.

                          As for Boucher.. he's our best bench player. So Thad better not take his minutes. Go re-review our lineup ratings from last year.

                          As for Khem I said depending on matchups. We're likely playing Khem more against guys like JV, Vucevic, Sabonis, etc. This may change. In the playoffs we played Khem more than Thad in the first 3 games (all losses). Khem got hurt in game 4 and only played 5 minutes. Thad played over 20. In game 5 Khem still started even though he played about 4 minutes less than Thad.

                          I like Thad more than Khem, but Nurse is not going to staple Khem to the bench all season. He'll get minutes. And when he does, he'll be taking Thad's minutes.



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                          • #88
                            golden wrote: View Post

                            I'm no expert, but RAPTOR gives some weird results. Like it had FVV as a top 5 player in the entire league for a good chunk of the season, and it had Pascal and OG as bottom 20th percentile or something like that. I don't know how the algorithm works, but it might be too biased to on/off or other inputs. RAPTOR doesn't always pass the sniff test, basically, or at least LEBRON has far fewer instances like that, from what I've noticed.
                            I think its because of howthe raptor uses tracking data and sometimes the way that the computer calculates tracking data from sports trac cameras can be wonky. I do agree about LEBRON though... there was another data set that I liked but it went private.

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                            • #89
                              planetmars wrote: View Post

                              Thad is not a guy that can play guard. Even though we're position-less he can't dribble and is at best a catch and shoot guy when he's taking a shot. His best skills on defense is when he's covering a bigger player and not a perimeter player.

                              Banton and Flynn aren't the greatest.. and that's mostly why they may not play much. But if Fred is out of the game for whatever reason we're not going to replace most of his minutes with Thad's.

                              As for Boucher.. he's our best bench player. So Thad better not take his minutes. Go re-review our lineup ratings from last year.

                              As for Khem I said depending on matchups. We're likely playing Khem more against guys like JV, Vucevic, Sabonis, etc. This may change. In the playoffs we played Khem more than Thad in the first 3 games (all losses). Khem got hurt in game 4 and only played 5 minutes. Thad played over 20. In game 5 Khem still started even though he played about 4 minutes less than Thad.

                              I like Thad more than Khem, but Nurse is not going to staple Khem to the bench all season. He'll get minutes. And when he does, he'll be taking Thad's minutes.


                              i think he can play point forward and does

                              hopefully the video below plays https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media...e_1280x720.mp4

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                              • #90
                                TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

                                i think he can play point forward and does

                                hopefully the video below plays https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media...e_1280x720.mp4
                                That's like saying Marc Gasol can play PG. Thad is a wing/power forward that can pass. He's not a guard. He'd get stripped of the ball or create a turnover if he was bringing it up. He can't replace Fred or Gary in the line up. And he can't guard out at the perimeter.

                                Just because we play position-less doesn't mean that we don't have a role for a traditional guard. Fred, Gary, Malachi, Dalano should all get minutes on this team. We need them.

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