2022 PreSeason - 3 Weeks to Camp Opening - Where Do The Raps Stack up in the East ?

[planetmars]

#1 seed? eh. Ok. I like it.

Here's one predicition that isn't very popular but i'm pretty confident will happen - Raptors will finish ahead of the Heat in the standings. The Raptors are a better team than the Heat.

Yeah I think we get around 54-55 wins. I'm not confident we make it past the 2nd round, but I think we'll have a great regular season record.

As for the Heat.. I think they still will have a great bench. They only lost PJ Tucker, but Dipo should be healthy and available all season. They shoot and make a lot of 3's and play good defense. And they still have Jimmy.

But they are older and I suspect will get hit with injuries harder than we will. But I'm also counting on a healthy season for the Raptors. They are due. Feels like forever since we've had a healthy squad.

[slaw]

We're not really a legit 5-out team if/when teams don't respect Precious, Scottie & Pascal's 3-pt shot. We do have Birch spotting up in the corner a lot, but I'm not sure what that actually achieves. And Boucher had an off-year from 3. And Banton can't shoot... period.

We don't really exploit matchups consistently either. It ends up being very much a "your turn / my-turn" type of offense, with each guy ISO'ing against their defender... with infrequent picks and screens to hunt those mismatches.

Right, this past season. But it's pretty clear the direction they are trending toward, which is what I described. It requires internal growth and improvement from guys like Barnes and Achiuwa (among others) and likely some personnel moves but so does every system and every team. Whether guys like Banton will even be around when they get there (if they ever do) remains to be seen.

[TrueTorontoFan]

does any east team crack 60 wins?

[slaw]

does any east team crack 60 wins?

Doubt it. 53 won the conference last season and it's definitely a tougher group of teams overall, plus, load management is basically giving away a few games a season (if not more than a few).

[Demographic Shift]

Oh, you have any evidence to back that up?

GSW last season won the chip and gave up 1 point per game fewer in second chance points than we did.

MIL won the chip the year before and was middle of the pack with 13 second chance PPG given up.

The Warriors in 17-18 allowed the 2nd most second chance points in the league. Won the chip.

The year before they won the chip allowing the 3rd most.

Plenty of teams with middle of the pack or near the best have also won the chip.

It's almost like that metric in particular is actually not at all relevant to how well teams do in the playoffs as a rule. Teams need to be good at things to do well in the playoffs, being good or bad at this one thing is not any more important than any other weakness or strength.

Its like your going through some long elaborate dance of the seven veils to come to a preferred answer.

They need to rebound better.
They aren't very good at it.
Getting a centre that can rebound and protect the rim will help that glaring deficiency.
Occams Razor.

[Demographic Shift]

does any east team crack 60 wins?

Only team with enough upside to do it .. Are the Nets.

Can that tightly wound group of egos Irving/Simmons/Durant make it work ?

Probably not...

[slaw]

Only team with enough upside to do it .. Are the Nets.

Can that tightly wound group of egos Irving/Simmons/Durant make it work ?

Probably not...

Thing is, if any team get close then it is likely comfortably in first, so that organization is going to start resting guys and limiting minutes.

[Demographic Shift]

Thing is, if any team get close then it is likely comfortably in first, so that organization is going to start resting guys and limiting minutes.

The East is better than last year.
Fewer teams in the East look like they will invest in a development type season in order to score a lottery draft pick.
Detroit and Orlando will be better ..
Tough to get to 60 in a deeper conference without a few East tomato cans.

[LJ2]

Yeah I think we get around 54-55 wins. I'm not confident we make it past the 2nd round, but I think we'll have a great regular season record.

As for the Heat.. I think they still will have a great bench. They only lost PJ Tucker, but Dipo should be healthy and available all season. They shoot and make a lot of 3's and play good defense. And they still have Jimmy.

But they are older and I suspect will get hit with injuries harder than we will. But I'm also counting on a healthy season for the Raptors. They are due. Feels like forever since we've had a healthy squad.

What's a fair expectation for this group? Still young, and key players like Barnes and Precious still need a year or two. Gary as well if he's part of the long term plan. I'd say 2nd round might be the floor with a ceiling of the 3rd?

[Primer]

What's a fair expectation for this group? Still young, and key players like Barnes and Precious still need a year or two. Gary as well if he's part of the long term plan. I'd say 2nd round might be the floor with a ceiling of the 3rd?

I'm thinking 2nd round floor no ceiling. If Scottie advances faster than we're thinking who knows? We really weren't that far off from winning the East last year if healthy.

[LJ2]

I'm thinking 2nd round floor no ceiling. If Scottie advances faster than we're thinking who knows? We really weren't that far off from winning the East last year if healthy.

If Raps advance to the 3rd round of the playoffs they will have exceeded my expectations for sure. Not going to put it past this team to achieve that.

[A.I]

If Raps advance to the 3rd round of the playoffs they will have exceeded my expectations for sure. Not going to put it past this team to achieve that.

Its possible and it will be impressive.

Raptors are young and the players are still improving, so its hard to pinpoint where they would be in the Playoffs. They could lose in the first round or make the ECF depending on their opponents.

[DanH]

Its like your going through some long elaborate dance of the seven veils to come to a preferred answer.

They need to rebound better.
They aren't very good at it.
Getting a centre that can rebound and protect the rim will help that glaring deficiency.
Occams Razor.

No, I'm questioning things you are stating as fact when they are not actually fact. Like this:

They need to rebound better.

Do they? It would be nice if they did, but if it costs them other things, is it really important they rebound better? How are you coming to the conclusion that they NEED to improve that specific area?

They aren't very good at it.

Define "it." They win the offensive board battle most nights. Excellent offensive rebounders (32.5%), poor defensive rebounders (opp 28.5%).

Getting a centre that can rebound and protect the rim will help that glaring deficiency.

We've covered how it's not actually clear that it's a glaring deficiency, so leaving that aside, even if we accept that adding such a player would help with that specific issue, would it hurt them elsewhere? Would it limit their ability to switch and defend on the perimeter? Would it cause issues for their offence? What's the cost of that, compared to the benefit of improving this area of weakness?

It's not an elaborate dance. It's something we call "discussing basketball."

[DanH]

Its possible and it will be impressive.

Raptors are young and the players are still improving, so its hard to pinpoint where they would be in the Playoffs. They could lose in the first round or make the ECF depending on their opponents.

Yeah, I wouldn't be so quick to label the 2nd round as a floor. There's a lot of good teams in the East, and you can easily lose a series to injury, hot/cold shooting, etc, when you aren't head and shoulders better than the other guys. Another first round exit would be a little disappointing but depending on the context would hardly be a disaster.

[golden]

Right, this past season. But it's pretty clear the direction they are trending toward, which is what I described. It requires internal growth and improvement from guys like Barnes and Achiuwa (among others) and likely some personnel moves but so does every system and every team. Whether guys like Banton will even be around when they get there (if they ever do) remains to be seen.

It's interesting because the legendary Spurs had the perfect system that won them a championship in 2014 that required shooting and they started to draft defensive minded non-shooters like Derrick White and DeJounte Murray. Of course, losing Kawhi was huge, but they hoped that the vaunted shooting guru Chip Engelland could teach them shooting and keep the perfect system chugging along. That failed miserably and they finally realized their hubris and are now blatantly tanking for Wembanyama.

I think the Raptors may have started to realize that teaching shooting to defensive minded non-shooters is basically a crap-shoot (no pun) or a really long haul to develop.... way too long to account for NBA contract lengths and salary control. And that could be why they're bringing in more veterans (Thad, Porter), or looking at prospects who have at least some some history of shooting success (Brooks, RHJ, Dowtin, Gabe).