2022 PreSeason - 3 Weeks to Camp Opening - Where Do The Raps Stack up in the East ?

[planetmars]

What's a fair expectation for this group? Still young, and key players like Barnes and Precious still need a year or two. Gary as well if he's part of the long term plan. I'd say 2nd round might be the floor with a ceiling of the 3rd?

The East is full of parity (well actually the West is as well). There aren't a million teams trying to rebuild/tank. With the play-in more teams want to try and assemble a winning team. So it's not going to be easy, but the Raptors are good. We had 48 wins last year. We never had 48 wins under Colangelo. Or even with Vince. Those teams peaked at 47 wins. We had 48 with like half the team injured and going through covid stuff.

I like our depth. I like our guys. I think Pascal is the real deal. Fred is pretty good. I think OG has a bounce back year. Scottie takes another step. I am hoping for good health because we are due. But my personal expectations are that we end up as a top 4 team in the East (so have home court in the first round). And depending on the match-up we get to the 2nd round.

The playoffs are all about match ups. But if we get a top 4 seed and play a team like Miami or Atlanta or Cleveland in the first round, I'd feel good about our chances. Less so if we play a team like Boston or Philly again.

[LJ2]

It's interesting because the legendary Spurs had the perfect system that won them a championship in 2014 that required shooting and they started to draft defensive minded non-shooters like Derrick White and DeJounte Murray. Of course, losing Kawhi was huge, but they hoped that the vaunted shooting guru Chip Engelland could teach them shooting and keep the perfect system chugging along. That failed miserably and they finally realized their hubris and are now blatantly tanking for Wembanyama.

I think the Raptors may have started to realize that teaching shooting to defensive minded non-shooters is basically a crap-shoot (no pun) or a really long haul to develop.... way too long to account for NBA contract lengths and salary control. And that could be why they're bringing in more veterans (Thad, Porter), or looking at prospects who have at least some some history of shooting success (Brooks, RHJ, Dowtin, Gabe).

You might be over thinking this a bit. Could just be that the Spurs couldn't find another stud like Duncan or Kawhi and they, like many teams, see Wembanyama as a generational talent worth throwing their hat in the ring for. Doesn't mean they weren't happy with Murray or White, or their progress as shooters, but just that those guys weren't superstars even if they were good shooters. You can't build a contender around Bradley Beal type player.

As far as the Raptors go, they built the foundation of this team on defense first players they felt they could teach to shoot and for the most part it's been pretty successful hasn't it? They are at a different stage of the rebuild now where they want to compete so veterans are obviously what's called for. Similar to the Ibaka, Green and Gasol additions. They seem to be following the same pattern leading up to the championship year and not having some sudden realization that what they've been doing is incorrect. It's just they've built this roster in stages.

[Primer]

It's interesting because the legendary Spurs had the perfect system that won them a championship in 2014 that required shooting and they started to draft defensive minded non-shooters like Derrick White and DeJounte Murray. Of course, losing Kawhi was huge, but they hoped that the vaunted shooting guru Chip Engelland could teach them shooting and keep the perfect system chugging along. That failed miserably and they finally realized their hubris and are now blatantly tanking for Wembanyama.

I think the Raptors may have started to realize that teaching shooting to defensive minded non-shooters is basically a crap-shoot (no pun) or a really long haul to develop.... way too long to account for NBA contract lengths and salary control. And that could be why they're bringing in more veterans (Thad, Porter), or looking at prospects who have at least some some history of shooting success (Brooks, RHJ, Dowtin, Gabe).

This is a very flawed analysis of why the Spurs are where they are now.

They didn't purposefully draft defensive minded non shooters. Those were the best players available at the end of the 1st round where they were constantly picking.

If you lose your superstar (Kawhi) and your other great players get old and retire, you're destined for a down swing and rebuild.

The Spurs actually did really well with all the late picks they had, and parlayed that into a potentially faster rebuild by trading guys away for picks.

I suspect this is a 1 year tank to get Wembanyama or someone else good at the top of the draft and then right back to fighting for playoff spots.

[chris]

does any east team crack 60 wins?

boston finished the season on a 67 win pace after struggling to come together under a new coach. i think they'll win a lot of games now that they've sorted that out and made a finals run, and added brogdon.

i'd be surprised if they didn't win 60 games and have the league's top record.

[golden]

This is a very flawed analysis of why the Spurs are where they are now.

They didn't purposefully draft defensive minded non shooters. Those were the best players available at the end of the 1st round where they were constantly picking.

If you lose your superstar (Kawhi) and your other great players get old and retire, you're destined for a down swing and rebuild.

The Spurs actually did really well with all the late picks they had, and parlayed that into a potentially faster rebuild by trading guys away for picks.

I suspect this is a 1 year tank to get Wembanyama or someone else good at the top of the draft and then right back to fighting for playoff spots.

What's up with you cherry picking strawman lately?

I didn't say the Spurs drafted non-shooters "on-purpose". They prioritized defense & character intangibles as BPA for the tier they were drafting. And hoped their development system could teach shooting. That's pretty similar to the Raptors recent philosophy.

[DanH]

It's interesting because the legendary Spurs had the perfect system that won them a championship in 2014 that required shooting and they started to draft defensive minded non-shooters like Derrick White and DeJounte Murray. Of course, losing Kawhi was huge, but they hoped that the vaunted shooting guru Chip Engelland could teach them shooting and keep the perfect system chugging along. That failed miserably and they finally realized their hubris and are now blatantly tanking for Wembanyama.

I think the Raptors may have started to realize that teaching shooting to defensive minded non-shooters is basically a crap-shoot (no pun) or a really long haul to develop.... way too long to account for NBA contract lengths and salary control. And that could be why they're bringing in more veterans (Thad, Porter), or looking at prospects who have at least some some history of shooting success (Brooks, RHJ, Dowtin, Gabe).

Losing Kawhi was everything. They could have drafted a whole pile of shoot first guys and they'd be in the same place (frankly, probably worse off), tanking to add talent.

Building a team is why the Raptors are bringing in more vets, after their very short term tear down/reset. Signing guys who can shoot just makes sense, you add pieces to address weaknesses with your current team, especially if you can do so without undermining its strengths (note that they did bring in Thad and Otto, big forwards who can defend, not small guards who are 40%+ shooters). They've also basically always added guys with some shooting upside near the end of the roster for the same reason, but those guys just tend not to work out (see Svi, Brooks, Matt Thomas). Nothing has really changed except for the part where slowly, as opportunity allows, they are able to add more mid-level talent, something they could not do right away in earlier off-seasons.

[Primer]

What's up with you cherry picking strawman lately?

I didn't say the Spurs drafted non-shooters "on-purpose". They prioritized defense & character intangibles as BPA for the tier they were drafting. And hoped their development system could teach shooting. That's pretty similar to the Raptors recent philosophy.

Prirotized and on purpose mean the same thing to me but OK if they don't for you.

The Spurs consistently picked the BPA and those guys became very valuable around the league. So not sure why you're criticizing their draft strategy as the cause of their downfall. And before you claim strawman again, I will quote exactly what you wrote.

"they started to draft defensive minded non-shooters like Derrick White and DeJounte Murray. Of course, losing Kawhi was huge, but they hoped that the vaunted shooting guru Chip Engelland could teach them shooting and keep the perfect system chugging along. That failed miserably and they finally realized their hubris and are now blatantly tanking for Wembanyama."

[A.I]

The Spurs downfall was Kawhi unexpectedly asking for a trade. They ended up with Derozan and were stuck in the middle for a few years. Only way out of that was if they got lucky and drafted a superstar caliber player in the late first or second round.

They are now finally tanking and moving forward from the after effects of the Kawhi trade.

[GLF]

No, I'm questioning things you are stating as fact when they are not actually fact. Like this:

They need to rebound better.

Do they? It would be nice if they did, but if it costs them other things, is it really important they rebound better? How are you coming to the conclusion that they NEED to improve that specific area?

They aren't very good at it.

Define "it." They win the offensive board battle most nights. Excellent offensive rebounders (32.5%), poor defensive rebounders (opp 28.5%).

Getting a centre that can rebound and protect the rim will help that glaring deficiency.


We've covered how it's not actually clear that it's a glaring deficiency, so leaving that aside, even if we accept that adding such a player would help with that specific issue, would it hurt them elsewhere? Would it limit their ability to switch and defend on the perimeter? Would it cause issues for their offence? What's the cost of that, compared to the benefit of improving this area of weakness?

It's not an elaborate dance. It's something we call "discussing basketball."

Hey Dan, I’m actually very interested in your take on this bc I always thought our terrible defensive rebounding (being literally dead last in the league) was killing us. Can you explain again why you don’t think it’s actually that big of a deal and why it isn’t hurting us as much as it seems? You’re explanation is going a bit over my head and I really want to understand.

[slaw]

It's interesting because the legendary Spurs had the perfect system that won them a championship in 2014 that required shooting and they started to draft defensive minded non-shooters like Derrick White and DeJounte Murray. Of course, losing Kawhi was huge, but they hoped that the vaunted shooting guru Chip Engelland could teach them shooting and keep the perfect system chugging along. That failed miserably and they finally realized their hubris and are now blatantly tanking for Wembanyama.

I think the Raptors may have started to realize that teaching shooting to defensive minded non-shooters is basically a crap-shoot (no pun) or a really long haul to develop.... way too long to account for NBA contract lengths and salary control. And that could be why they're bringing in more veterans (Thad, Porter), or looking at prospects who have at least some some history of shooting success (Brooks, RHJ, Dowtin, Gabe).

Raps have tried to exploit a market inefficiency where teams were perhaps overvaluing shooters and undervaluing other skills, which is in line with the organization's philosophy since the end of the 19-20 season. While most of the rest of the league went one way the Raps went another, which they need to do cause they aren't a FA/player destination so they need to find other competitive advantages.

As for their success with these guys, it's important to remember almost all of the guys who have come through recently are undrafted or late second rounders and the success rate on any of these guys is extremely low no matter their specific skill sets. Bringing in guys like Young and Porter was important to add some vets to the rotation so the end of the bench can be used for development players (which Ujiri has always done).

[DanH]

Hey Dan, I’m actually very interested in your take on this bc I always thought our terrible defensive rebounding (being literally dead last in the league) was killing us. Can you explain again why you don’t think it’s actually that big of a deal and why it isn’t hurting us as much as it seems? You’re explanation is going a bit over my head and I really want to understand.

Ultimately, what matters is how many points you give up per possession. The way NBA.com tracks its possessions (ie the right way, IMO), you don't get a new possession with an offensive board, you continue the same possession. So say a team forces 5 missed shots, but gives up an offensive board after every single one, and ultimately the other team scores 2 points. That's 2 points, one possession, just like if they hit the first shot. Those offensive boards killed you on that possession, because you kind of earned a stop, you just didn't close the deal. But it's not inherently worse than just giving up the 2 points on the first shot.

So, the Raptors' defensive scheme is super aggressive and is very good at preventing first chance scoring, causing turnovers, etc. To the extent that even though they struggle with giving up offensive boards, and letting possessions continue, they still ended up with a top 10 overall and top 5 second-half-of-season defence in terms of points given up per possession. In other words, their defence (ignoring rebounding) is incredible - maybe the best, or at least in the discussion. But their lack of defensive rebounding hurts them, so it drops down a bit - but the end result is still a very good, even great, defence.

The question about improving the defensive rebounding is one of trade-off. Can they improve that without losing the other things that make the defence so good in the first place? Like, I love a guy like JV, who can excel in a conservative defence. But bringing him in to control the defensive boards would also require them to sacrifice the scheme that is providing such excellent results right now. Heck, even a guy who can do everything, who is an excellent defensive rebounder, but can also switch out and defend on the perimeter - that guy, when placed into our scheme, would rarely be placed into a position at the end of defensive plays to be corralling those rebounds, meaning they probably wouldn't improve the situation that much. Never mind that a guy who can switch like Achiuwa on defence and rebound like JV is a complete fiction. Heck, they could probably have much better defensive rebounding numbers if they simply changed up their scheme and prioritized that with the current personnel, but overall I suspect their overall defence would get worse if they did that.

[golden]

Ultimately, what matters is how many points you give up per possession. The way NBA.com tracks its possessions (ie the right way, IMO), you don't get a new possession with an offensive board, you continue the same possession. So say a team forces 5 missed shots, but gives up an offensive board after every single one, and ultimately the other team scores 2 points. That's 2 points, one possession, just like if they hit the first shot. Those offensive boards killed you on that possession, because you kind of earned a stop, you just didn't close the deal. But it's not inherently worse than just giving up the 2 points on the first shot.

So, the Raptors' defensive scheme is super aggressive and is very good at preventing first chance scoring, causing turnovers, etc. To the extent that even though they struggle with giving up offensive boards, and letting possessions continue, they still ended up with a top 10 overall and top 5 second-half-of-season defence in terms of points given up per possession. In other words, their defence (ignoring rebounding) is incredible - maybe the best, or at least in the discussion. But their lack of defensive rebounding hurts them, so it drops down a bit - but the end result is still a very good, even great, defence.

The question about improving the defensive rebounding is one of trade-off. Can they improve that without losing the other things that make the defence so good in the first place? Like, I love a guy like JV, who can excel in a conservative defence. But bringing him in to control the defensive boards would also require them to sacrifice the scheme that is providing such excellent results right now. Heck, even a guy who can do everything, who is an excellent defensive rebounder, but can also switch out and defend on the perimeter - that guy, when placed into our scheme, would rarely be placed into a position at the end of defensive plays to be corralling those rebounds, meaning they probably wouldn't improve the situation that much. Never mind that a guy who can switch like Achiuwa on defence and rebound like JV is a complete fiction. Heck, they could probably have much better defensive rebounding numbers if they simply changed up their scheme and prioritized that with the current personnel, but overall I suspect their overall defence would get worse if they did that.

Biggest problem with the super-aggressive defense is that it falls apart in the playoffs, when the opposing team can use that aggression against us for wiiiiide open shots by role players... ala Philly game 1 & 2. And teams pay more attention to boxing out and defensive fundamentals to try and diminish our OREB advantage in the playoffs. So it could be a bit of fool's gold. The uber-aggressive scheme also loses a bit of steam in the regular season, when we play the same team back-to-back, or in quick succession. Also in the regular season, when you have a coach who thinks about beating the Raptors 24/7 as much as he thinks about pounding the rock.

[planetmars]

The Raptors need to watch some Warriors tape. They had the 2nd most defensive rebounds in the league (per game) after the Bucks. Yet their center is Looney who is as tall as Precious is.

Draymond lead his team with 6.3 drpg. Pascal lead our team with 6.6.

The problem is they had more guys that were able to grab boards than our guys. I mean Steph was 3rd in drpg with 4.7 after Draymond and Looney. Maybe its scheme. Maybe its just desire.

I don't think its personnel. We don't need a Sabonis or Vucevic or Valanciunas.

[Hotshot]

The Spurs downfall was Kawhi unexpectedly asking for a trade. They ended up with Derozan and were stuck in the middle for a few years. Only way out of that was if they got lucky and drafted a superstar caliber player in the late first or second round.

They are now finally tanking and moving forward from the after effects of the Kawhi trade.

Yep. It's amazing how well tanking worked for them in the past, the year that David Robinson fell down to injury and they decided to tank hard and got their hands on Tim Duncan. Changed the fortune of the franchise completely, no timmy no 5 championships.

Should have tanked as soon as they decided to trade Kawhi. Wasted good years at being mediocre for it. Now maybe they see that either Wemban' or Scoot or another player that might emerge could realistically change their franchise luck once again if the lottery ball falls their way. As much as the Raptors learned from the Spurs organization on the blueprints on how they realistically can run a successful franchise, its now the Spurs organization looking at the Raptors and thinking "holly shit they tanked only for 1 year, got into the top 4 in the draft and selected an absolute stud that they could build the team around for years and are back being competitive in such a short time, why not do it right now where everyone else are trying to get wins and its just the Jazz and the Pacers that are tanking hard?"

[slaw]

The Raptors need to watch some Warriors tape. They had the 2nd most defensive rebounds in the league (per game) after the Bucks. Yet their center is Looney who is as tall as Precious is.

Draymond lead his team with 6.3 drpg. Pascal lead our team with 6.6.

The problem is they had more guys that were able to grab boards than our guys. I mean Steph was 3rd in drpg with 4.7 after Draymond and Looney. Maybe its scheme. Maybe its just desire.

I don't think its personnel. We don't need a Sabonis or Vucevic or Valanciunas.

Pascal cleans up a lot of Raps problems on defense...

And I obviously agree that a lot of it is scheme as our guys aren't in good rebounding position (it's hard to be when you're 25 feet from the basket and flying all over the court).

Having said that, I am not dismissive of the issue. There were instances last year where it cost them games and, to a lesser extent, constantly giving up OREBs can wear out defenders, lead to fouls, etc. and also can have other less quantifiable effects (stopping your run, creating momentum for another team, etc.). I don't really care about aggregated stats but Raps need to dial-in on it in games if it starts hurting them and, in particular, against teams attacking that weakness.