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Saw people proposing in the fallout of the New Orleans game thread that we need to make a trade soon. But this is the problem: making a trade right now is exceptionally difficult.
First off, this is the most uncertain season in NBA history, which is exactly why the Western Conference is turning into an arms race: Dallas trading for Rondo, Houston trading for Corey Brewer and snagging Josh Smith, Phoenix trading for Brandan Wright, Memphis trading for Jeff Green, even the Clips trading for Austin Rivers. The Cavaliers have been active too for the same reason: because nobody knows yet who's for real and who isn't. In the West there's at least seven teams who are legit championship threats, in the East there's at least two (Atlanta and Chicago - everybody else has to prove themselves).
What this means is that there are a lot of teams who think that this is their year, because OKC might not make playoffs and because LeBron's Cavs haven't figured out who they are yet and because Derrick Rose isn't 100% back and because the Spurs look tired... except those four teams all think they have a shot too. We have a season where we're almost at NFL levels of team parity.
This is literally unprecedented in the NBA and it means nobody who thinks they have a shot is going to trade away a key asset. For example: people speculating about trading for Taj Gibson? It's not happening this year, even with Chicago's issues with salary next summer when they try to retain Jimmy Butler, because Chicago's deadly four-man frontcourt rotation is a huge reason they're winning games, and this could be Chicago's year - right now them and Atlanta are looking like the two best bets to advance to the Finals in the East, that's not when you trade away really good players.
So if we want to improve by trade, there's only two ways to do it:
1. Find a trade partner who's actively selling parts because they know they're not making playoffs. But this is harder than it seems because most of the pieces we would be interested from these teams are either gone already (Jeff Green, for example, or Timofey Mozgov), or because they're young and the team views them as a building block and won't trade them except for a large fortune in return (e.g. Derrick Favors in Utah).
2. Find a trade partner who thinks they're getting one over on us by getting a talented player for a piece they don't value, except because Masai is a genius he knows we're actually doing better in the trade. The Rudy trade last year was sort of like this, because the narrative before we went on a .666 winning streak of ball was that we traded Rudy Gay for spare parts. And Masai's admitted that he wasn't planning on having 2Pat and Greivis turn the team into a success engine anyway, so planning for this is nearly impossible.
But now we run into the NEXT problem, which is: okay, so what can you trade? You can't realistically trade Kyle or DeMar - they're the stars of the team and it would be demoralizing both for the team and the fans, unless you're getting a superstar somehow in return (which isn't happening). Trading Amir is off the table unless you can get someone who does what Amir does - even in his current state - and that's next to impossible anyway. Trading Bruno or Bebe seems highly unlikely to happen given their future potential and current low value. The expirings of Landry/Chuck/Psycho T are worth next to nothing in the current league, which is mostly matured into the new-CBA era with a couple of exceptional contracts (who all play for Brooklyn anyway). Vasquez has low value both because of a bad year and because he plays at the most stacked position in the league.
Which means you're looking at trading one or more of Ross, Jonas, 2Pat, or the 2015 first-rounder. (You want to keep the two 2016 first-round picks, since they bundle together much more nicely for next season's trades - even if it's just trading up in that draft.) Can't realistically trade Jonas. So we're down to Ross and 2Pat.
And now we're at the final problem: there aren't a lot of solid rim-protecting fours and/or decent two-way wings that are available on the current market. There just aren't. When people are talking about Wilson Chandler as a potential upgrade, that's when you know the market's depleted. Jeff Green was probably an upgrade over Ross at the three, even though he'd affect spacing a bit poorly, but he's gone. Who's left? Maybe Tobias Harris (but be prepared to pay Orlando through the nose, because they're not silly) or Aaron Afflalo (ditto for Denver, who just got two goddamn first rounders for Timofey fucking Mozgov). And rim-protecting fours? Who is there, really, that's available?
It's a tough nut to crack. This is why Masai gets paid the big money.
First off, this is the most uncertain season in NBA history, which is exactly why the Western Conference is turning into an arms race: Dallas trading for Rondo, Houston trading for Corey Brewer and snagging Josh Smith, Phoenix trading for Brandan Wright, Memphis trading for Jeff Green, even the Clips trading for Austin Rivers. The Cavaliers have been active too for the same reason: because nobody knows yet who's for real and who isn't. In the West there's at least seven teams who are legit championship threats, in the East there's at least two (Atlanta and Chicago - everybody else has to prove themselves).
What this means is that there are a lot of teams who think that this is their year, because OKC might not make playoffs and because LeBron's Cavs haven't figured out who they are yet and because Derrick Rose isn't 100% back and because the Spurs look tired... except those four teams all think they have a shot too. We have a season where we're almost at NFL levels of team parity.
This is literally unprecedented in the NBA and it means nobody who thinks they have a shot is going to trade away a key asset. For example: people speculating about trading for Taj Gibson? It's not happening this year, even with Chicago's issues with salary next summer when they try to retain Jimmy Butler, because Chicago's deadly four-man frontcourt rotation is a huge reason they're winning games, and this could be Chicago's year - right now them and Atlanta are looking like the two best bets to advance to the Finals in the East, that's not when you trade away really good players.
So if we want to improve by trade, there's only two ways to do it:
1. Find a trade partner who's actively selling parts because they know they're not making playoffs. But this is harder than it seems because most of the pieces we would be interested from these teams are either gone already (Jeff Green, for example, or Timofey Mozgov), or because they're young and the team views them as a building block and won't trade them except for a large fortune in return (e.g. Derrick Favors in Utah).
2. Find a trade partner who thinks they're getting one over on us by getting a talented player for a piece they don't value, except because Masai is a genius he knows we're actually doing better in the trade. The Rudy trade last year was sort of like this, because the narrative before we went on a .666 winning streak of ball was that we traded Rudy Gay for spare parts. And Masai's admitted that he wasn't planning on having 2Pat and Greivis turn the team into a success engine anyway, so planning for this is nearly impossible.
But now we run into the NEXT problem, which is: okay, so what can you trade? You can't realistically trade Kyle or DeMar - they're the stars of the team and it would be demoralizing both for the team and the fans, unless you're getting a superstar somehow in return (which isn't happening). Trading Amir is off the table unless you can get someone who does what Amir does - even in his current state - and that's next to impossible anyway. Trading Bruno or Bebe seems highly unlikely to happen given their future potential and current low value. The expirings of Landry/Chuck/Psycho T are worth next to nothing in the current league, which is mostly matured into the new-CBA era with a couple of exceptional contracts (who all play for Brooklyn anyway). Vasquez has low value both because of a bad year and because he plays at the most stacked position in the league.
Which means you're looking at trading one or more of Ross, Jonas, 2Pat, or the 2015 first-rounder. (You want to keep the two 2016 first-round picks, since they bundle together much more nicely for next season's trades - even if it's just trading up in that draft.) Can't realistically trade Jonas. So we're down to Ross and 2Pat.
And now we're at the final problem: there aren't a lot of solid rim-protecting fours and/or decent two-way wings that are available on the current market. There just aren't. When people are talking about Wilson Chandler as a potential upgrade, that's when you know the market's depleted. Jeff Green was probably an upgrade over Ross at the three, even though he'd affect spacing a bit poorly, but he's gone. Who's left? Maybe Tobias Harris (but be prepared to pay Orlando through the nose, because they're not silly) or Aaron Afflalo (ditto for Denver, who just got two goddamn first rounders for Timofey fucking Mozgov). And rim-protecting fours? Who is there, really, that's available?
It's a tough nut to crack. This is why Masai gets paid the big money.
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