How to beat the Raps ... a scouting report

[S.R.]

The example to follow is a team like Portland. Basically they've had the same personnel for the last 3 years (Robin Lopez for the last 2 seasons) and they've gone from 26th, to 16th to 2nd in DRTG, while maintaining an excellent ORTG (108+).

Identical personnel, vastly different results. And no historically great defensive player in sight. In fact, the opposite is more likely true. How do you explain that?

Portland has very, very good perimeter defenders with great length and athleticism. They also have very mobile and athletic bigs. The team as a whole seems to have a high IQ that collectively grasps individual roles and offensive/defensive systems. Also, Terry Stotts is evidently a very good coach.

[raptors999]

This confuses me. Why a defensive coach loves Lou and GV so much and seems much tougher on a guy like JJ while never playing Fields (even with his broken shot) is surprising. You think there'd be more reaching deeper into the line-up to find defensive solutions. Shooters definitely have a longer leash and get more minutes.

Shooter who create their own shot. Otherwise 2Pats and Ross would get more burn since they shoot at a higher % and don't cause as many defensive issues. Unless they can pull up they don't get playing time.

[raptors999]

Portland has very, very good perimeter defenders with great length and athleticism. They also have very mobile and athletic bigs. The team as a whole seems to have a high IQ that collectively grasps individual roles and offensive/defensive systems. Also, Terry Stotts is evidently a very good coach.

Portland uses Batum who is playing shit iffensdively at the three because of defense and ball movement. Casey runs out three guards to chuck.

[golden]

Portland has very, very good perimeter defenders with great length and athleticism. They also have very mobile and athletic bigs. The team as a whole seems to have a high IQ that collectively grasps individual roles and offensive/defensive systems. Also, Terry Stotts is evidently a very good coach.

League average DRTG is 105. Damian Lillard had a defensive rating of 110 last year - putrid. This years his DRTG is 103 - decent. Nick Batum was 107 career average heading into this season. Now it's 101 - very good. Aldridge (106 career, 100 this season). Portland was a team stocked with bad defenders, until this year.

I mean, can you really say there's a huge athletic gap between: Lillard/Lowry, Ross/Batum, Demar/Matthews, Amir/Aldrige, JV/Lopez (who's missed a ton of games, BTW). And then you toss in mobile athletes like JJ & 2Pat that Casey can bring in off the bench. I don't buy the "athletic gap" argument as an excuse for the terrible D. I mean, Roy Hibbert is practically a sloth, by today's NBA standards, yet he's a perennial DPOY candidate. Imagine putting him in Casey's system.

And unless you're talking about Andrea Bargnani level BBIQ, saying that a player has low IQ, especially on defense has to be a huge indictment of the coach. What's the point of having any coach, if he can't get them to listen to him and execute his schemes.

The simple answer to this may have been pointed out awhile ago. The Raps are being scouted closer now, and opposing teams have figured out a few fatal holes in their schemes that can be repeatedly exploited. It might just be that it's almost impossible to completely scrap and re-learn an NBA-level defense mid-season, regardless of personnel, so Casey's trying to tweak it the best that he can.

[SamMitchells]

This confuses me. Why a defensive coach loves Lou and GV so much and seems much tougher on a guy like JJ while never playing Fields (even with his broken shot) is surprising. You think there'd be more reaching deeper into the line-up to find defensive solutions. Shooters definitely have a longer leash and get more minutes.

Exactly what Doc Rivers said after the loss to Toronto

" they drill in your head that they are a defensive team ( Casey Rhetoric ) then drop 120+ on you"

Paraphrasing

[S.R.]

League average DRTG is 105. Damian Lillard had a defensive rating of 110 last year - putrid. This years his DRTG is 103 - decent. Nick Batum was 107 career average heading into this season. Now it's 101 - very good. Aldridge (106 career, 100 this season). Portland was a team stocked with bad defenders, until this year.

I mean, can you really say there's a huge athletic gap between: Lillard/Lowry, Ross/Batum, Demar/Matthews, Amir/Aldrige, JV/Lopez (who's missed a ton of games, BTW). And then you toss in mobile athletes like JJ & 2Pat that Casey can bring in off the bench. I don't buy the "athletic gap" argument as an excuse for the terrible D. I mean, Roy Hibbert is practically a sloth, by today's NBA standards, yet he's a perennial DPOY candidate. Imagine putting him in Casey's system.

And unless you're talking about Andrea Bargnani level BBIQ, saying that a player has low IQ, especially on defense has to be a huge indictment of the coach. What's the point of having any coach, if he can't get them to listen to him and execute his schemes.

The simple answer to this may have been pointed out awhile ago. The Raps are being scouted closer now, and opposing teams have figured out a few fatal holes in their schemes that can be repeatedly exploited. It might just be that it's almost impossible to completely scrap and re-learn an NBA-level defense mid-season, regardless of personnel, so Casey's trying to tweak it the best that he can.

Whoa, with all due respect defensive athleticism/mobility is exactly how I'd describe the gap between those groups of players.

[raptors999]

Whoa, with all due respect defensive athleticism/mobility is exactly how I'd describe the gap between those groups of players.

The problem is that those are the starters while Casey runs Lowry, Lou, GV, 2Pats and Amir a lot and with Demnar back it'll be Lowry, GV, DD, 2Pat and

[white men can't jump]

Whoa, with all due respect defensive athleticism/mobility is exactly how I'd describe the gap between those groups of players.

Also, Portland does not run the same scheme. In fact, they used to run it when they still had Hickson (who's probably more mobile than Jonas or Lopez), and it was failing them big time, so Stotts changed it up going into last season. Dropped the hedge hard, help-heavy D that Casey likes so much, and starting utilizing scheme where they stopped asking the C to hedge.

Teams with slower Cs do not generally ask the guy to come out on high screens. This includes teams like Memphis and Indy who have had very good defensive teams anchored by slow, lumbering Cs.

[golden]

Also, Portland does not run the same scheme. In fact, they used to run it when they still had Hickson (who's probably more mobile than Jonas or Lopez), and it was failing them big time, so Stotts changed it up going into last season. Dropped the hedge hard, help-heavy D that Casey likes so much, and starting utilizing scheme where they stopped asking the C to hedge.

Teams with slower Cs do not generally ask the guy to come out on high screens. This includes teams like Memphis and Indy who have had very good defensive teams anchored by slow, lumbering Cs.

Thanks WM. Changing the defensive scheme is what I thought Portland might have done, but you've pointed out some specifics to back it up. I mean there doesn't really seem to be any other way to explain a massive leap from 16th to 2nd in DRTG, using the exact same players, and playing in the west to boot.

People credit Casey with improving the D after he took over from Triano, but Casey took the Raps from worst to mediocre. Getting to uber-elite D status, like Portland is doing, is exponentially more difficult and impressive. Again, with the EXACT same players.

The irony is that if Portland stayed at 16th in DRTG, people would be making the complete opposite argument - that they can't win because they don't have good defenders. Not one of those guys (except Batum, who is decent), had a rep as an elite defender. The other irony here is that Stotts was supposed to be the offensive coach and Casey was supposed to be the defensive coach on Rick Carlisle's staff.

Not picking on you, S.R., because ur a great poster on this forum, but I'm finding it hard to swallow that all of a sudden this year, Portland has innately superior defensive personnel with higher defensive BBIQ and athleticism than the Raps, or most of the NBA, for that matter.

EDIT: And in the words of Terry Stotts, and the players themselves... here's how the Blazers have done it....

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...hem-contender/

“I think it’s been a two-year process,” Portland coach Terry Stotts said of the effort to remake the defense. “I thought what we did last year going from 26 to, whatever it was, 16, it was conservative (philosophy). It wasn’t anything revolutionary.

“Some of it was personnel, obviously, but some of it was we changed our focus, we didn’t extend. My first year we got out and showed on pick-and-rolls, we tried to be athletic. We are much more conservative in our approach to the pick-and-roll. I thought we made good progress last year and this year the focus was on not allowing as many shots at the rim while still taking away the three. Our weak side needed to be better, and I think our defensive rebounding has been better both years.”

[white men can't jump]

Thanks WM. Changing the defensive scheme is what I thought Portland might have done, but you've pointed out some specifics to back it up. I mean there doesn't really seem to be any other way to explain a massive leap from 16th to 2nd in DRTG, using the exact same players, and playing in the west to boot.

People credit Casey with improving the D after he took over from Triano, but Casey took the Raps from worst to mediocre. Getting to uber-elite D status, like Portland is doing, is exponentially more difficult and impressive. Again, with the EXACT same players.

The irony is that if Portland stayed at 16th in DRTG, people would be making the complete opposite argument - that they can't win because they don't have good defenders. Not one of those guys (except Batum, who is decent), had a rep as an elite defender. The other irony here is that Stotts was supposed to be the offensive coach and Casey was supposed to be the defensive coach on Rick Carlisle's staff.

Not picking on you, S.R., because ur a great poster on this forum, but I'm finding it hard to swallow that all of a sudden this year, Portland has innately superior defensive personnel with higher defensive BBIQ and athleticism than the Raps, or most of the NBA, for that matter. O

Yeah, I even found an article from last season about the change. Admittedly not sure exactly what their schemes look like right now (have only seen them 3-4 times this year), but I imagine they've kept building off the changes they started at that time.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/11/2...d-roll-defense

They call it a soft ice. Basically the C sort of "zones up" instead of hedging, trying to protect the lane. And the ultimate goal is to force mid-range jumpers.

*Here, I'll post a chunk of the article...

The basic strategy is fairly simple. Instead of switching or hedging, the defending guard will try to fight over the top of every screen. As they fight over the screen, they put backside pressure on the ball handler and make quick three-pointers uncomfortable. Meanwhile, the post defender sags back, usually around the free throw line, with the intent to guard the lane and prevent penetration.

This version of the ICE defense allows Portland is to push ball handlers off the three point line, and stave off the easy layups in the paint they gave up last year. The open spot on the floor for opposing offenses becomes the 15-18 foot jumper, one of the most inefficient shots in basketball. The Blazers are trying to get teams to shoot long jumpers and rely on statistical averages to sustain their defense.

The most interesting part about Terry Stotts' switch to the ICE defense of the pick-and-roll is Portland's dedication to it. In Indiana, the Pacers will often cut under screens set high above the three-point arc. And when the play involves their power forwards, they will instead use the hedge technique due to their mobility.

Portland doesn't have that kind of flexibility. They stick to the soft ICE technique on each pick-and-roll. Damian Lillard and Mo Williams play opposing ball-handlers tight, and far from the hoop. Guards are supposed to try to fight over the top on screens, and no matter which Blazer post is guarding the roll man they always stay soft to the lane. It's an important distinction that makes the Blazers defense rather unique.

By ceding open jumpers, Portland is trying to play the odds of advanced analytics. Terry Stotts is often heard talking about things like eFG% and per-36, so the defensive strategy around his soft ICE pick-and-roll defense isn't surprising. Portland is holding opponents to just 42.3% eFG in the pick-and-roll this year compared to 49.7% eFG last year. That's the early-season improvement Stotts was looking for. Time will tell whether the strategy will continue to bear fruit for the Blazers.

[raptors999]

Yeah, I even found an article from last season about the change. Admittedly not sure exactly what their schemes look like right now (have only seen them 3-4 times this year), but I imagine they've kept building off the changes they started at that time.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/11/2...d-roll-defense

They call it a soft ice. Basically the C sort of "zones up" instead of hedging, trying to protect the lane. And the ultimate goal is to force mid-range jumpers.

The league is full of shooters. Basic rule is zone shooters and pressure athletes. The West is full of Spurs type teams and nobody plays like the 2011 Cavs except OKC

[S.R.]

Great finds above.

I do think Portland's group would have a higher defensive ceiling as a unit than the Raps, but interesting that the discussion comes around to Stotts making adjustments to suit his personnel.

This Raps group has shown the potential to be nearly a top 10 defense, and there's lots of discussion around here about why they've fallen off, but they sure have the ability to be a lot better than they are right now. Can Casey adjust the way Stotts has? I totally agree that the linchpin is what he's asking JV to do - it's frustrating both JV and Casey, and it's shooting the whole scheme right in the foot. JV can't recover quickly enough but does offer above average rim protection when he's in position and straight up (like Hibbbert). I think JV has enough talent that you adjust your systems to suit him - easier to do the type of thing Stott's has done than to replace a lottery pick 7 footer with clear double-double potential. I know I'm not really interested in the last 3 years of Tyson Chandler's career.

[white men can't jump]

Great finds above.

I do think Portland's group would have a higher defensive ceiling as a unit than the Raps, but interesting that the discussion comes around to Stotts making adjustments to suit his personnel.

This Raps group has shown the potential to be nearly a top 10 defense, and there's lots of discussion around here about why they've fallen off, but they sure have the ability to be a lot better than they are right now. Can Casey adjust the way Stotts has? I totally agree that the linchpin is what he's asking JV to do - it's frustrating both JV and Casey, and it's shooting the whole scheme right in the foot. JV can't recover quickly enough but does offer above average rim protection when he's in position and straight up (like Hibbbert). I think JV has enough talent that you adjust your systems to suit him - easier to do the type of thing Stott's has done than to replace a lottery pick 7 footer with clear double-double potential. I know I'm not really interested in the last 3 years of Tyson Chandler's career.

And Hibbert and Indy are an interesting comparison. For most of the time they've had Hibbert and West, the two have played the p'n'r differently. Hibbert zones up, but West would hedge hard. It's entirely possible to mix schemes a bit when different players are involved in the action.

[raptors999]

Great finds above.

I do think Portland's group would have a higher defensive ceiling as a unit than the Raps, but interesting that the discussion comes around to Stotts making adjustments to suit his personnel.

This Raps group has shown the potential to be nearly a top 10 defense, and there's lots of discussion around here about why they've fallen off, but they sure have the ability to be a lot better than they are right now. Can Casey adjust the way Stotts has? I totally agree that the linchpin is what he's asking JV to do - it's frustrating both JV and Casey, and it's shooting the whole scheme right in the foot. JV can't recover quickly enough but does offer above average rim protection when he's in position and straight up (like Hibbbert). I think JV has enough talent that you adjust your systems to suit him - easier to do the type of thing Stott's has done than to replace a lottery pick 7 footer with clear double-double potential. I know I'm not really interested in the last 3 years of Tyson Chandler's career.

Macs have Chandler and Denver has McGee and NO has Davis. It isn't a personnel issue. Build an ideal pressure defense and the Spurs, GSW Atlanta or Portland will pick it apart. Miami had a great pressure defense. Houston will fall because regular season teams don't adjust to Harden but in the playoff they do and even Portland will pressure.

[mcHAPPY]

Exactly what Doc Rivers said after the loss to Toronto

" they drill in your head that they are a defensive team ( Casey Rhetoric ) then drop 120+ on you"

Paraphrasing

Mirage was the word I believe.