How Much Does Eastern Conference Suckage Matter?

[S.R.]

A great point was just raised in another thread: our 33-15 Raptors are only 10-11 against +.500 teams. They've racked up a nice and tidy 9-0 record against an awful Atlantic division, and are 23-8 in the Eastern Conference.

In the West, the defending champion San Antonio Spurs are 30-18 and sitting in 7th (!). The Suns are 8th, the New Orleans Pelicans are building around an MVP-candidate and are currently 9th, and OKC is 10th.

Question: where do you think this Raptors team would sit in the West? Realistically I'd put them in that 7-10 range. When everybody's healthy, they're definitely not as good as the Spurs and OKC (both have had loads of injuries) but would likely compete pretty well with Phoenix, and New Orleans.

In other words, in the West I think the Raps would be in a dog fight just to make the playoffs. Their current WP% against the West (10-7 = 0.588) would put them in 8th spot, with Phoenix a half game behind them and a now healthy OKC closing in.

Would any of your opinions change if this team was 28-20 in the West with a 50/50 (or whatever chance you want to give it) shot at the making the playoffs as the 8 seed?

BTW I'm just pulling the numbers out for the sake of discussion - I'm not assuming everything would extrapolate perfectly.

[yabadabayolo]

do you have the numbers against +500 teams with and without demar ? I feel that would change the results too

[S.R.]

do you have the numbers against +500 teams with and without demar ? I feel that would change the results too

Good point, maybe later - I'm supposed to be working

[planetmars]

I think it matters in the sense that it reconfirms that the Raptors are not serious contenders.. But, if you had your expectations in check, that's not really that much of a bummer. I don't think Masai believes they are contenders either.

The ultimate prize is a championship.. not a 2nd round playoff birth. So the only concern I would have is if this team ends up on the treadmill. The good thing is that there is a lot of youth on this team, and a lot of that youth is locked up, and unlike prior years they will have a lot of flexibility in terms of cap space. Weltman and Masai have had pretty good track records in drafting and scouting. So I have faith they would be able to find someone good in the mid 20's in the draft.

Things are looking up.. and with the right couple of moves this team could easily go from pretender to contender.

[Stevo]

Being in the EC gives us one of the top spots, no doubt. I do believe we'd be a playoff team in the West, just with a lower seeding.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I think it matters in the sense that it reconfirms that the Raptors are not serious contenders.. But, if you had your expectations in check, that's not really that much of a bummer. I don't think Masai believes they are contenders either.

The ultimate prize is a championship.. not a 2nd round playoff birth. So the only concern I would have is if this team ends up on the treadmill. The good thing is that there is a lot of youth on this team, and a lot of that youth is locked up, and unlike prior years they will have a lot of flexibility in terms of cap space. Weltman and Masai have had pretty good track records in drafting and scouting. So I have faith they would be able to find someone good in the mid 20's in the draft.

Things are looking up.. and with the right couple of moves this team could easily go from pretender to contender.

In addition to all that you said, I think a silver lining for the Raptors is their GM, who has 3 1st round picks in the next two drafts and is projected to have significant cap space to use over the next couple offseasons. The real and potential flexibility, for a GM who has publically stated that even with the EC wide open this season he won't mortgage the future to go all-in, is priceless. If MU stays the course and continues building for the long-term, with the goal of building a roster/franchise for sustainable winning, I'm not overly concerned about becoming a treadmill team.

[CNinja26]

If we discount the no-defense GSW game and the tired tail end to our road trip PHX game, we were pretty competitive with most of the Western Conference. We battled refs and took Portland to overtime, we competed with Memphis until the last few minutes, we beat the Clippers, and we played a TERRIBLE game and lost Demar against Dallas.

So I'd say we would be a playoff team, but more so in the 7-8 seed range.

[octothorp]

A great point was just raised in another thread: our 33-15 Raptors are only 10-11 against +.500 teams. They've racked up a nice and tidy 9-0 record against an awful Atlantic division, and are 23-8 in the Eastern Conference.

After Atlanta and Golden State, the next 11 teams all have a mediocre record against teams above .500.

Memphis is 13-10.
Chicago is 13-10.
Clippers are 11-12.
San Antonio is 13-12.
Toronto is 10-11.
Cleveland is 11-12.
Phoenix is 11-12.
Washington is 10-12.
Houston is 10-12.
Dallas is 11-13.
Portland is 10-13.

In other words, in the West I think the Raps would be in a dog fight just to make the playoffs. Their current WP% against the West (10-7 = 0.588) would put them in 8th spot, with Phoenix a half game behind them and a now healthy OKC closing in.

Did you take Toronto's average against the West and compare it to western team records against both east and west? If so, that's not really a fair comparison since you're removing the easiest part of Toronto's schedule but preserving the western teams' easier schedules.

Comparing Toronto's record against the west to western teams' record against the west, Toronto is ahead of Portland, San Antonio, and Dallas (and behind Golden State, Memphis, Clippers, Houston, and New Orleans), good for sixth in the conference. The margin between Houston, New Orleans, Toronto, and Portland is really thin.

All of which is to say that yes, there's a lot of teams that are closely bunched. And so far, only Golden State and Atlanta appear to be above the fray. But I don't see anything in the statistics you give that suggest that Toronto is toward the lower end of that grouping. Not saying that the argument can't be made. Just that it's not there in these stats.

[S.R.]

Comparing Toronto's record against the west to western teams' record against the west, Toronto is ahead of Portland, San Antonio, and Dallas (and behind Golden State, Memphis, Clippers, Houston, and New Orleans), good for sixth in the conference. The margin between Houston, New Orleans, Toronto, and Portland is really thin.

Good points, no I didn't take the time to pick apart the West's record by conference, but like you said I think the basic discussion point remains. Yup, a .588 record vs. the West would put Toronto 6th out of the top 11 Western teams when only considering records vs. other Western teams, but you'd have Portalnd, Dallas, and San Antonio so close (within .025) and obviously Spurs and OKC are better but have had injuries problems, combined with the small sample size and DeRozan's injury - just too many variables to go to that level of detail. None of it would change where I'd have the Raps, in the 7-10 range, probably on the most equal footing with Dallas, the Suns, and NO.

Honestly all of this is mostly a reply to the "yeah, well we're 33-15 so everything must be pretty good" comment I'm seeing more and more. Hey, I love 33 wins before the All-Star break, but just flip conferences and this team could be 50/50 for just making the playoffs instead of talking about the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[Superjudge]

so what?

whats you r point?

are you making one just to hear your own thoughts?

[S.R.]

so what?

whats you r point?

are you making one just to hear your own thoughts?

Yes. Aren't we all?

[Superjudge]

yes actually...good point hahahaha

[MACK11]

Thank God were in the Eastern Conference, could you imagine being in the west?

If this team was put into the Western Conference we'd be a fringe playoff team between seeds 7-9

[Superjudge]

whats toronto's record against the west.... pre derozan going down, then post.

[Other Scott]

Yeah, they would be around the 6-9 range in the West, but that doesn't mean they're a bad team. We have to resist the impulse to call the West a "normal" conference compared to the East being awful. The West is an absolute beast. Being the 7th best team in the Western conference is actually a major accomplishment.