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  • #kl/dd/jj/pp/jv

    Somebody needs to come up with a hashtag for this Holy Grail of Raptors lineups. Others on this forum have talked a lot about it, but I was curious to see if there's any statistical justification for this lineup.

    Here's the argument: a Lowry/DeRozan/J.Johnson/Patterson/Valanciunas lineup would be good. Maybe better than good. Maybe the best five-man lineup that the Raptors can put on the floor. It features our best defenders at 4 of 5 positions (Lowry, DeRozan, J.Johnson, Valanciunas), while at the fifth position, Patterson is at least capable, and IMO is better in certain situations that A. Johnson.

    In this post, I'm going to be primarily using data from to make the case that this unit will work if given the opportunity. Stats used here are: Offensive Point Per Possession, Defensive Points Per Possession.

    My methodology is to look at every unit listed on that has 4 of these 5 together. (My limitation is that units that do not appear in the top 20 for at least one player do not get displayed on 82 games at all).
    Lineup - Minutes - OPP - DPP
    Lowry-Ross-DeRozan-Patterson-J.Johnson - 6 - 1.50 - 1.00

    Lowry-DeRozan-A.Johnson-J.Johnson-Valanciunas - 11 - 1.05 - .86

    Lowry-Williams-DeRozan-Patterson-Valanciunas - 50 - 1.14 - .92
    Lowry-Ross-DeRozan-Patterson-Valanciunas - 40 - 1.15 - 1.42
    Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Patterson-Valanciunas - 20 - 1.40 - .85

    Lowry-Williams-Patterson-J.Johnson-Valanciunas - 36 - 1.38 - 1.13
    Lowry-Ross-Patterson-J.Johnson-Valanciunas - 20 - 1.31 - 1.00
    Lowry-Vasquez-Patterson-J.Johnson-Valanciunas - 7 - 1.36 - 1.21


    So those are the key lineups I'm looking at. And all of them except the K.L./T.R./D.D./P.P./J.V. lineup has done quite well.

    Next I'm going to look at key pairings here:

    DeRozan + James Johnson
    I'm convinced this is the big one for Casey. The primary reason we haven't seen this group on the court is because Casey probably sees DeRozan and J.J. as incompatible. There are 20 lineups in which J.J. has played at least 7 minutes. Of these, only three feature him and DeRozan, for less than 30 minutes total. All of them did at least average, and the K.L./D.D./J.J./A.J/J.V. lineup did particularly well. This lineup has played 11 minutes together, with an OPP of 1.05, a DPP of .86, plus an eFG of .529 and an eFGA .326. All excellent numbers in a small sample. This is amongst the best defensive units that DeRozan has been on the floor with, along with the K.L./D.D./G.V./P.P./J.V. lineup, another one that is one player removed from our Holy Grail lineup. While I think J.J. and D.D. would be compatible at any point, they look especially tantalizing given DeRozan's seemingly improved court-vision and willingness to pass.

    Patterson + Valanciunas
    There's an argument is that JV needs to be playing along-side the veteran savviness of Amir Johnson. But certain combinations of lineups with Patterson and Valanciunas have proved very effective. K.L./L.W./D.D./P.P./J.V. is another 4-of-5 lineup, with Williams inserted instead of J.J. And its numbers are on par with the Amir Johnson equivalent. The K.L./T.R./J.J./P.P./J.V. lineup was superior to the Amir equivalent, and the K.L./G.V./D.D./P.P./J.V. unit destroys the numbers of the Amir equivalent (as well as any other unit Valanciunas has played on.

    Patterson + J. Johnson
    The last key one. The fan belief is that Patterson provides the spacing necessary to negate Johnson's lack of perimeter game. Is there reason for thinking this? Absolutely. Of the 8 most common units featuring both J.Johnson and Patterson, four of them have great numbers, two of them middling numbers, and two of them awful numbers. But fortunately, there's a key differentiator here: All of the four Patterson/J.Johnson units that have great numbers also have Lowry at PG. 3 of the other 4 have Vasquez and Williams as the two guards. So there's a correlation there that Patterson and J.Johnson do work extremely well together as long as they're paired with Lowry.

    I've tried to be impartial here, but I really can't find any evidence that this lineup wouldn't work. Maybe Casey knows it's going to be awesome and he's just waiting for the playoffs to unleash it on an unsuspecting opponent. If that's the case, send me a P.M. big guy, and I'll take this post down so nobody wisens up to it.

  • #2
    Good post. You might find's lineup data helpful as well - you can filter to 4-man lineups (and pairings) and get their deltas directly.


    • #3
      GV + TRoss + Bruno + Bebe + Steimer should be given a chance


      • #4
        raptors999 wrote: View Post
        GV + TRoss + Bruno + Bebe + Steimer should be given a chance
        In the offseason some of them may be traded/released so, this line-up may never come to fruition. Sorry.

        EDIT: Stiemsma this season → '14-'15 TOR
        5-6 .833 0-0 .000 2-2 1.000 8 3 11 3 0 1 14 4 12
        Last edited by godkingleonidas; Sun Feb 8, 2015, 06:31 AM.


        • #5
          I suggest we go back to the old Ross starting lineup. JJ and DD is just a spacing nightmare... and shut down Amir till 120% healthy. Start:


          Round out the first quarter with:

          Vasquez/Lou/[DD or Ross]/JJ/[Amir or Bebe]

          Early-mid 2nd quarter:

          Vasquez/[DD or Ross]/Bruno/JJ/[Patt or Amir]

          half way second quarter:


          Gives the rooks some burn. Gives JJ and Patt plenty of burn since both have been effective for us this year. Gets JV 15 minutes in the first half. Balanced floor with a mix of shooters and slashers. Less Pou Williams.


          • #6
            there's 240 minutes to give out

            They should be given out to these 9 playes
            Lowry/ 34
            J.Johnson/ 21.5
            Patterson/ 24.5
            Jonas.V/ 29

            GV/ 23.5
            LW/ 22.5
            TR/ 24.5
            AJ/ 25

            Amir will play both PF and C off the bench

            Rotations should be

            Amir and Terrence first off the bench
            Gv and Lou second
            Abbas wrote:

            First of all i was my own source


            • #7
              I still like the KL/Lou/DD/JJ/2Pat as a unit, if Lou is a 6th man we could roll this out.
              The name's Bond, James Bond.


              • #8
                raptors999 wrote: View Post
                GV + TRoss + Bruno + Bebe + Steimer should be given a chance
                Maybe summer league if GV and TRoss play as poorly as both have demobstrated they are capable of.


                • #9
                  OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                  I suggest we go back to the old Ross starting lineup. JJ and DD is just a spacing nightmare... and shut down Amir till 120% healthy.
                  Sooo forced retirement? Lol


                  • #10
                    Sounds like it's happening tonight! Fan 590 just said JJ is starting! About to see if it's confirmed somewhere.


                    • #11
                      Joey wrote: View Post
                      Sooo forced retirement? Lol
                      As long as he retires a Raptor I am a happy camper


                      • #12

                        we made it.


                        • #13
                          And so it came to pass...


                          • #14
                            The name's Bond, James Bond.


                            • #15
                              The rotation should be crowd-sourced from here on in. lol.