Potential Coaching Candidates

[Other Scott]

The first question should be: do we have a top 5 player

If no: do we have 3 or 4 top 20 players

If no: you're screwed

Historically correct, so I can't argue too much.

Two counters: 1. Is there anything the Raptors can do this offseason to increase their chance of a top 5 player in the near future? I would argue no.

2. I think the NBA is becoming more and more a league of who can field the least number of bad players. You have someone who does nothing for you on offense? No one guards them. You have someone who can't defend? Be ready for every play on defense to involve that person's man. A side effect of this might be that we see more teams with lower ceiling player and higher floor players start to do better (such as this year's Celtics). That said, we'll have to wait for the team with both the 2nd and 3rd best player in the world as well as no players you can exploit on either end to stop dominating before we can see if that's really the case or not.

[Hotshot]

Historically correct, so I can't argue too much.

Two counters: 1. Is there anything the Raptors can do this offseason to increase their chance of a top 5 player in the near future? I would argue no.

The only way is : trade 1 of DD or Lowry for a top 10 heavily scouted pick that has not yet blossomed and is a bit of a risk and roll the dice. That's how you sometimes get Kawai and Giannis. Of course its a crap shoot and more times then not that player will not become an All-star but then again every year 1 or 2 players out of the top 3 picks always disappoints as well.

[Scraptor]

Just to add a little evidence that the regular season means "something", here is the complete list of teams since 1990 that won 60 games in a season and that iteration of the team (within a few years on either side) never became a true championship contender (and I know the Raptors didn't win 60 games but they were close enough):

14-15 Hawks - won less than 45 games both years on either side, this is just an example of a team getting hot for a few months with a new style of play that took some time figuring out
10-11, 11-12 Bulls - Rose injury destroyed them, they would have been well on their way to becoming a real contender
04-05, 06-07 Suns - A bit debatable here, you could very well argue these teams were true contenders. They came pretty close to knocking off a championship Spurs team
03-04 Pacers - Same deal as the Hawks, team that got hot for a year but wasn't replicable success
1996-97 Heat, 1995-96 Magic - Putting these teams in the same category as teams that just ran into Jordan

That's it. There's a lot of 60 win teams, most of them eventually developed into something real. There's not a lot of historical evidence of teams over the course of multiple seasons just being "regular season great" and never coming through in the playoffs.

There's more than that. (If 60 is close enough to 59, then so is 58.)

'00 Blazers won 59, got to the WCF, then didn't get out of the first round for 13 years.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/

'04 Pacers won 61, lost the ECF, then lost in the semis, then the first round, then didn't make the playoffs again for four years.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/

'04 Wolves won 58, lost WCF, then didn't make the playoffs for 13 years.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/

And also close enough... '13 Nuggets won 57, lost in the first round, and have been out of the playoffs since. This was after 9 years of making it out of the first round only once.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/

[Other Scott]

There's more than that. (If 60 is close enough to 59, then so is 58.)

'00 Blazers won 59, got to the WCF, then didn't get out of the first round for 13 years.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/

'04 Pacers won 61, lost the ECF, then lost in the semis, then the first round, then didn't make the playoffs again for four years.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/

'04 Wolves won 58, lost WCF, then didn't make the playoffs for 13 years.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/

And also close enough... '13 Nuggets won 57, lost in the first round, and have been out of the playoffs since. This was after 9 years of making it out of the first round only once.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/

I did include the Pacers, and there was definitely special circumstances surrounding the Jail Blazers that caused them to collapse.

Obviously the more you drop the win total required the more non-contenders you'll get.