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  • JV's Jumpshot

    First and foremost, let's please NOT make this a #FireCasey thread as there's already one for everyone to post their Casey hate (warranted or unwarranted) in.


    That being said, I was wondering why JV doesn't take that midrange shot more often, and mainly if it was because he's not confident with the shot or if it was instruction from the coaching staff to not shoot outside the paint (a la Miles Plumlee).

    His effectiveness as a jump shooter I really don't think can be questioned too much. He's proven he can definitely shoot (78% FT shooter on 681 career attempts). It's not like his mechanics are bad because he's proven he can make the shot.

    However, in game it's a bit tough to see if he's actually a consistent shooter or not because he's taken so little attempts.

    I'm going to compare JV to KG and Marc Gasol (one elite jump shooting big and another who's very good who I think JV should strive for).

    JV on his career is shooting 38.8% on shots from 10-16ft and 37.1% on shots past 16ft that aren't 3's.

    Gasol's splits on those two stats are 42.4% and 41.2% respectively. KG's at 46.1% and 45.4%. (DISCLAIMER: I don't think JV will ever shoot the midrange as well as KG. Like ever.)

    Now before you post with the generic "JV doesn't shoot it because Gasol and KG are better and he can't shoot lulz stop posting", Gasol's career FT% is 75.9 and KG's is 79.0%. JV has it in him to shoot well but he never wants to take the shot.

    This is also why he pump fakes so much. He used to shoot the midrange a lot more than he does now:

    Year 1: 366 Total FGA - 77 FG outside of 10ft
    Year 2: 676 Total FGA - 140 FG outside of 10ft
    Year 3: 532 Total FGA - 60 FG outside of 10ft

    This evens out to about 21.0%, 20.7% and 11.3% of his total FGA every year.

    He's shot percentages of:
    Year 1: 41.6% (32/77)
    Year 2: 32.7% (49/140)
    Year 3: 40% (24/60)

    Clearly very inconsistent but regardless, I think if he takes the shots confidently, he'd make them consistently. Kyle Lowry even said on Bill Simmons that JV could make the midrange shot but he's not comfortable with it yet.

    So RR in your opinion is he just not confident enough to take the jump shots or is the coaching staff telling him not to?

  • #2
    Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    First and foremost, let's please NOT make this a #FireCasey thread as there's already one for everyone to post their Casey hate (warranted or unwarranted) in.


    That being said, I was wondering why JV doesn't take that midrange shot more often, and mainly if it was because he's not confident with the shot or if it was instruction from the coaching staff to not shoot outside the paint (a la Miles Plumlee).

    His effectiveness as a jump shooter I really don't think can be questioned too much. He's proven he can definitely shoot (78% FT shooter on 681 career attempts). It's not like his mechanics are bad because he's proven he can make the shot.

    However, in game it's a bit tough to see if he's actually a consistent shooter or not because he's taken so little attempts.

    I'm going to compare JV to KG and Marc Gasol (one elite jump shooting big and another who's very good who I think JV should strive for).

    JV on his career is shooting 38.8% on shots from 10-16ft and 37.1% on shots past 16ft that aren't 3's.

    Gasol's splits on those two stats are 42.4% and 41.2% respectively. KG's at 46.1% and 45.4%. (DISCLAIMER: I don't think JV will ever shoot the midrange as well as KG. Like ever.)

    Now before you post with the generic "JV doesn't shoot it because Gasol and KG are better and he can't shoot lulz stop posting", Gasol's career FT% is 75.9 and KG's is 79.0%. JV has it in him to shoot well but he never wants to take the shot.

    This is also why he pump fakes so much. He used to shoot the midrange a lot more than he does now:

    Year 1: 366 Total FGA - 77 FG outside of 10ft
    Year 2: 676 Total FGA - 140 FG outside of 10ft
    Year 3: 532 Total FGA - 60 FG outside of 10ft

    This evens out to about 21.0%, 20.7% and 11.3% of his total FGA every year.

    He's shot percentages of:
    Year 1: 41.6% (32/77)
    Year 2: 32.7% (49/140)
    Year 3: 40% (24/60)

    Clearly very inconsistent but regardless, I think if he takes the shots confidently, he'd make them consistently. Kyle Lowry even said on Bill Simmons that JV could make the midrange shot but he's not comfortable with it yet.

    So RR in your opinion is he just not confident enough to take the jump shots or is the coaching staff telling him not to?
    Same reason Demar doesn't take threes anymore. It isn't a point of emphasis. DMC had the opposite issue taking midrange shots vs post ups but the offense was changed to force him. Players sometime play against a strength or abandon a skill they aren't comfortable with.

    Comment


    • #3
      For Gasol and KG, hitting that shot made defenders respect their range, and usually led to the defender biting on pump fakes. For some reason the majority of defenders already fear Jonas' jump shot and bite on those slow-as-molasses-in-a-toronto-ice-storm pump fakes. That clears the landing strip for that one dribble, three-step hook that we all know and love. Seriously though, you make a good point that Jonas seemingly has the fundamental mechanics to be a good jump-shooting big man. It all just comes back to #FireCasey and we have to accept that.

      Comment


      • #4
        I think it's a comfort thing. JV seems to understand where and how he's effective. If he was having a hard time scoring in the paint then maybe he would take it a bit more, but with what he's doing offensively at the moment there isn't any need.

        I think Gasol is a fair comparison, but having said that I would rather take it to the paint until someone figures out how to stop him.

        He's like the opposite of Demar; won't put up the shot that he knows he can hit for the shot that he will definitely hit.

        Comment


        • #5
          Bandit wrote: View Post
          I think it's a comfort thing. JV seems to understand where and how he's effective. If he was having a hard time scoring in the paint then maybe he would take it a bit more, but with what he's doing offensively at the moment there isn't any need.

          I think Gasol is a fair comparison, but having said that I would rather take it to the paint until someone figures out how to stop him.

          He's like the opposite of Demar; won't put up the shot that he knows he can hit for the shot that he will definitely hit.
          I agree with the general logic here. He seems intent on scoring inside, and I wonder if that's not also what the coaches emphasize as his role. It's probably a good thing, but I think they're neglecting his shot too much and stagnating his development there.

          I mean, they do not scheme to get him good jumpshots. The majority of his shots this year come in the same area, and are usually of the nature of a bad possession resulting in someone dumping it to him on the baseline where he's camped out to try and not get in the way. I don't think that helps foster consistency or confidence.

          However for them to put him in better spots would mean them utilizing him more in general, which doesn't seem to be in the plans this year.

          One thing I wouldn't mind seeing more of is side p'n'r plays with him.

          Do we run a lot of side p'n'r in general? It really doesn't feel like it, and I'm not sure why.
          Last edited by white men can't jump; Sun Mar 22, 2015, 02:09 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            He's rarely in the position that he should be taking them, if he knows he's supposed to shoot it because the ball is kicked to him open I'm sure he would take and make them consistently, but it's not a part of the offence at all. They should be finding a possession or 2 a game for him to get them but fuck development I guess

            Comment


            • #7
              I'd like him to take the shot every once in a while, just to keep the defence on their toes.

              But of course he needs to keep working in the post as well.
              The name's Bond, James Bond.

              Comment


              • #8
                A good offensive gameplan I'm sure would involve some baseline pick and pop with him and demar which would be very hard to stop

                Comment


                • #9
                  white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                  I agree with the general logic here. He seems intent on scoring inside, and I wonder if that's not also what the coaches emphasize as his role. It's probably a good thing, but I think they're neglecting his shot too much and stagnating his development there.

                  I mean, they do not scheme to get him good jumpshots. The majority of his shots this year come in the same area, and are usually of the nature of a bad possession resulting in someone dumping it to him on the baseline where he's camped out to try and not get in the way. I don't think that helps foster consistency or confidence.

                  However for them to put him in better spots would mean them utilizing him more in general, which doesn't seem to be in the plans this year.

                  One thing I wouldn't mind seeing more of is side p'n'r plays with him. Give the ballhandler a solid screen as they drive the baseline, and have the option of rolling hard or drifting out to around the FT line for an open jumper.

                  Do we run a lot of side p'n'r in general? It really doesn't feel like it, and I'm not sure why.
                  Nothing really comes to mind for me. Any side action tends to be Iso, Pin downs, or complete structural collapse of our offense. I like the idea though.

                  Even some p'n'p action from the top would be nice. Teams leave him wide open to cover the paint. Hit a jumper or two at the start could open up the p'n'r game from all angles

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm thinking about it in more a team way.

                    Of course JV is more effective in the post and doesn't really need that jumpshot. Yes he could probably go the rest of his career without ever re-adding that to his arsenal and be just fine.

                    But as it stands, a perfect 4 to match with JV is one that defends exceptionally well, is a good passer, and can spread the offense. Without that type of 4, Toronto will always be an average (in contrast) team if they trot out the Lowry-DeMar tandem no matter how well the the SF hits his 3's.

                    I'm thinking, if JV can hit that shot, then maybe we can get away with a lineup like the Lowry-DD-JJ-Amir one. And in the case we do end up finding that 4 that matches up well with JV, the lineup of Lowry-DD-JJ-4-JV can be flat out dominant.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Bandit wrote: View Post
                      Nothing really comes to mind for me. Any side action tends to be Iso, Pin downs, or complete structural collapse of our offense. I like the idea though.

                      Even some p'n'p action from the top would be nice. Teams leave him wide open to cover the paint. Hit a jumper or two at the start could open up the p'n'r game from all angles
                      Yeah, it wouldn't be bad in general to try and get him some good open looks off p'n'r type action. I brought up the side because it would probably tend to lead him into the FT line area. He shoots great from the line, and I'd wonder if that can help foster comfort and confidence in jumpshots in that area.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        A JV jumpshot would open up so much for our offense it's ridiculous.

                        If we play the Lowry-DD-JJ-Amir-JV lineup, JV being able to shoot the midrange consistently means:

                        1) a side PnP with DD is deadly
                        2) a side pindown with DD and JV(similar to what we run with DD and Amir) is deadly
                        3) PnR/PnP with any ball handler can lead to either an open J for JV, a layup for JV or an open lane for the ball handler
                        4) with defenders not being able to help off of JV, any drive is more effective
                        5) no more summer 3 from Amir

                        DD's effectiveness skyrockets mostly because he won't have to take that midrange shot. Right now he takes it because the defense sags off of him hard, but if he called for a JV pick every time that happened we could effectively stop the defense from doing that I think.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                          A JV jumpshot would open up so much for our offense it's ridiculous.

                          If we play the Lowry-DD-JJ-Amir-JV lineup, JV being able to shoot the midrange consistently means:

                          1) a side PnP with DD is deadly
                          2) a side pindown with DD and JV(similar to what we run with DD and Amir) is deadly
                          3) PnR/PnP with any ball handler can lead to either an open J for JV, a layup for JV or an open lane for the ball handler
                          4) with defenders not being able to help off of JV, any drive is more effective
                          5) no more summer 3 from Amir

                          DD's effectiveness skyrockets mostly because he won't have to take that midrange shot. Right now he takes it because the defense sags off of him hard, but if he called for a JV pick every time that happened we could effectively stop the defense from doing that I think.
                          1)I like the side pick action with DD
                          2) Would love to see pindowns run with JV and Ross actually, letting DD play off the ball on the weak side. I think that could stretch out the floor quite well. JV and Ross show flashes of great chem in those situations too.
                          3) I think once that threat has been established then our P'n'R should be hugely more effective. Most teams sag off of JV and just worry about the ball handler letting JV float in that jumper range.
                          4)Not sure how much more effective this would get, most of the time on a drive JV is lurking along the baseline and his man doesn't like leaving him. When they do JV tends to get an offensive rebound. You could structure it to have JV pop out to an extended free throw line on the weakside though. That would work wonders.
                          5)This just made me smile

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                          • #14
                            I don't think it's in the gameplan for him not to shoot it and I say that because sometimes early in games they run a play with Lowry setting a screen for JV to get the jumpshot, although obviously it's not very frequent. I just think it's a comfort thing.

                            Side note, how crazy is it that both our starting big men are top 5 in FG% in the league?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Bandit wrote: View Post
                              4)Not sure how much more effective this would get, most of the time on a drive JV is lurking along the baseline and his man doesn't like leaving him. When they do JV tends to get an offensive rebound. You could structure it to have JV pop out to an extended free throw line on the weakside though. That would work wonders.
                              My mistake, should've specified. I meant having him move to a couple feet short of the 3, the Udonis Haslem sweet-spot if you will as opposed to standing at the edge of the paint, effectively spreading the defense and leaving more room in the paint.


                              Also, kind of a guess but I feel like most teams' best rim protectors are typically also their best post defenders. Teams would be forced to put this defender on JV to respect his post game which would allow us to pull the other team's best rim protector out of the paint.

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