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Chucker Quotient of Playoff Teams

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  • Chucker Quotient of Playoff Teams

    Quotient is a fancy word here, but I was comparing some stats today, searching for the following:

    For each NBA playoff team, how many games has a player taken 6 or more 3pt shots while making less than 33%? And what percentage of total 6 or more 3pt shot games does that make up? The idea behind this is to determine which teams are disciplined enough to go with other options when their shooters are cold, and which teams keep plugging away, feeding designated shooters, hoping their luck changes. I had some ideas of who would perform best and worst in this metric, and those guesses were largely accurate, but there was at least one big surprise at the very top of the list.

    A low total (first column) means that their offence does not rely on individual players taking a large volume of 3s. A high percentage means that their offence relies heavily on individuals taking large numbers of 3s. A low percentage (last column) means that they're very disciplined in terms of cold players not taking a lot of shots. A high percentage means that they're undisciplined in this regard.

    TEAM total 6 3PA games total under 33% percentage
    Bucks 47 9 19%
    Hawks 80 15 19%
    Warriors 137 27 20%
    Clippers 121 28 23%
    Cavs 123 35 28%
    Wizards 41 12 29%
    Mavericks 90 26 29%
    Spurs 80 23 29%
    Celtics 83 26 31%
    Thunder 75 25 33%
    Grizzlies 32 10 31%
    Trailblazers 120 40 33%
    Raptors 113 40 35%
    Bulls 87 33 38%
    Rockets 163 65 40%
    Heat 45 19 42%
    General conclusions:
    You'd probably expect Hawks and Warriors to dominate just about any 3pt measurement, and that's true here. Both use hot 3pt shooters a lot, but rarely end up with cold shooters taking a high volume. But what's impressive at the top of the list is how good Milwaukee's percentage is: this suggests that they're really good at feeding shooters who are hot but not depending on it as part of their offence. Overall, the Heat, Grizzlies, Wizards, and Bucks use volume 3pt shooters a lot less than any of the other teams, and a team like the Heat at the bottom of this ranking can be forgiven because even though they don't have anyone capable of good 3pt shooting performances, they don't try to look for that. The Bulls were a surprise to me as well with how poor they are at this. Rose is responsible for a lot of that, (8 games in which he shot 1-of-7 or worse from 3), but most of their guards can be suckered into those bad shooting games.

    Toronto is predictably bad in this measurement, but not the worst. Houston is absolutely dreadful, using these heavy 3pt performances far more than any other team, and with far more stinkers than any other team.

    EDIT: oh, one other thing I forgot to include: the importance of avoiding those stinker performances. In total, there were 779 stinkers (less than 33%, 6 or more shots) amongst current playoff teams. 339 of those occured in wins, 440 of those occurred in losses. So even amongst the best teams in the league, there's a strong correlation here that when you have volume 3pt shooters missing a lot, your chances of winning are low.
    Last edited by octothorp; Tue Mar 31, 2015, 05:05 PM.

  • #2
    Good idea. But to truly determine the chuck factor, I think we need to consider if the shots were "good" attempts or not. Personally, I don't mind DeRozan or JJ shooting corner 3's, if they're wide open and come from good ball movement.

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    • #3
      Nilanka wrote: View Post
      Good idea. But to truly determine the chuck factor, I think we need to consider if the shots were "good" attempts or not. Personally, I don't mind DeRozan or JJ shooting corner 3's, if they're wide open and come from good ball movement.
      Conversely, the Raptors chuckers have shot the team out of several games this year via forced/contested/bad long 2's.

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      • #4
        So perhaps chucker is the wrong title for this. It's more about a team's tendency to look-for / rely-upon / force hot 3-point shooting.

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        • #5
          Not sure this is a good metric.

          It relies on someone believing significantly in the concept of the hot hand (Something that is statistically measurable) and it punishes teams for having primary 3 point shooters (who will go cold from time to time) despite 3s being of sound analytic value.

          The Raptors and Trail Blazers do have good offences despite being chucking teams.

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          • #6
            Jrice9 wrote: View Post
            Not sure this is a good metric.

            It relies on someone believing significantly in the concept of the hot hand (Something that is statistically measurable) and it punishes teams for having primary 3 point shooters (who will go cold from time to time) despite 3s being of sound analytic value.

            The Raptors and Trail Blazers do have good offences despite being chucking teams.
            I think the Blazers are up there because Lillard's not shooting well from 3 this year and take 7 3PA per game. (It was 7.1 3PA and 34% last time I checked for him)

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