Everything 2024 Draft

[Primer]

Bruce Brown might be the first role player in NBA history to have his trade value skyrocket by NOT making the playoffs. Every fanbase that got eliminated swears he's the missing piece.

4D chess by Masai.

I went from thinking we would decline the option to being positive we will be picking up the option.

Just a matter of if he gets traded in the offseason or during the season.

I guess if we come out playing really well next year maybe we keep him too.

Don't see declining the option as realistic anymore.

[bertarapsfan]

Why would Tolzman every say he doesn't like this draft class, even if he doesn't?

Like playing poker and announcing your cards to the table as you get them.

We can definitely find a useful player to pair with Scottie, we're just not gonna get anyone on Scottie's level, and any other year in the top 6 we would likely be able to do that. That's the kick in the nuts part.

Masai may pull off a miracle and find a player like that, that will be the hope anyways if we keep the pick. We can speculate more after Sunday when we know where we will be picking in round 1. A top 6 pick is a nice trade piece so it would open up a lot of options on that front as well.

Im not saying tolzman would.. im more saying the guys who are In the media driving draft convo every year. Are dude who have never made a jump shot and don't know ball.. it easy for them to hype up physical freaks like Zion or wemby. They don't see that and say well this class sucks. The last draft class that was touted as being shitty was 2020. Which had Edwards, Lamelo , Halliburton, Maxey Quickly.

There going to be all star caliber players don't let dweebs like Kevin o Connor fool you

[Primer]

Im not saying tolzman would.. im more saying the guys who are In the media driving draft convo every year. Are dude who have never made a jump shot and don't know ball.. it easy for them to hype up physical freaks like Zion or wemby. They don't see that and say well this class sucks. The last draft class that was touted as being shitty was 2020. Which had Edwards, Lamelo , Halliburton, Maxey Quickly.

There going to be all star caliber players don't let dweebs like Kevin o Connor fool you

I disagree 100% with the bold.

Please give examples of media guys saying this is a poor draft who don't know ball.

[golden]

I disagree 100% with the bold.

Please give examples of media guys saying this is a poor draft who don't know ball.

They all know ball, but just like professional meteorologists 30 years ago, their ability to predict and forecast the draft accurately is terrible… even for the elite of their profession. And that includes multi-millionaire dollar front office executives.

[3inthekeon]

They all know ball, but just like professional meteorologists 30 years ago, their ability to predict and forecast the draft accurately is terrible… even for the elite of their profession. And that includes multi-millionaire dollar front office executives.

I'm sure someone can find something better than this, but here is a simplistic breakdown of the 20 drafts from 1989 to 2008. There were high picks that failed and lower picks that succeeded, but on aggregate, the higher the picks, the more successful they were.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

[LJ2]

Bruce Brown would be the obvious answer there.

Here's one hypothetical.

If the Jazz are not confident they can re-sign Markannen, they may be interested in a top 6 pick plus Bruce Brown in exchange for Markannen, and then Brown could be moved to a 3rd team (contender) that wants Brown.

If Denver loses in this round the media narrative is they shouldn't have let Brown go, he's a key piece for a championship team.

That would be amazing but all these social media tweets about teams wanting Bruce Brown were there before the trade deadline as well, and went nowhere. Raps fans have been down on this guy since he arrived so not sure why the perception would be that he has a lot of trade value. Draft night can't get here soon enough.

[golden]

I'm sure someone can find something better than this, but here is a simplistic breakdown of the 20 drafts from 1989 to 2008. There were high picks that failed and lower picks that succeeded, but on aggregate, the higher the picks, the more successful they were.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Aggregrates aren’t particularly useful when you consistently and egregiously miss out on all-stars, all-NBAers, MVPs and HoFs. Especially when 1 player can change the trajectory of a franchise for decades. It’s just like meteorology 30 years ago… they could predict tomorrow’s weather with maybe 80% accuracy, but 2 or 3 days out was a coin flip and 1 week out was pretty useless.

[planetmars]

Aggregrates aren’t particularly useful when you consistently and egregiously miss out on all-stars, all-NBAers, MVPs and HoFs. Especially when 1 player can change the trajectory of a franchise for decades. It’s just like meteorology 30 years ago… they could predict tomorrow’s weather with maybe 80% accuracy, but 2 or 3 days out was a coin flip and 1 week out was pretty useless.

Are you discounting any time for development? Like some stars weren't stars as rookies.. and needed 2, 3, 4+ years to turn into stars. Sometimes a player only gets good by being drafted in a good organization with a good culture. Or is not playing behind someone else so is not getting the reps they deserve etc.

So it's not always easy to predict how well someone is going to be when they are only 19 or 20 years old. Some kids even get bigger. Imagine if Giannis never got his growth spurt? He'd just be a meh prospect. No different really from one of his brothers.

[golden]

Are you discounting any time for development? Like some stars weren't stars as rookies.. and needed 2, 3, 4+ years to turn into stars. Sometimes a player only gets good by being drafted in a good organization with a good culture. Or is not playing behind someone else so is not getting the reps they deserve etc.

So it's not always easy to predict how well someone is going to be when they are only 19 or 20 years old. Some kids even get bigger. Imagine if Giannis never got his growth spurt? He'd just be a meh prospect. No different really from one of his brothers.

Not at all. That actually supports the "experts get it wrong" thesis. Development is yet another reason/variable which makes the draft so hard to predict, even for the best pros.

[DanH]

I went from thinking we would decline the option to being positive we will be picking up the option.

Just a matter of if he gets traded in the offseason or during the season.

I guess if we come out playing really well next year maybe we keep him too.

Don't see declining the option as realistic anymore.

Have to think if he has value, they will find a deal for him at the draft, even if that deal has to be executed in July I'd bet we either hear a reported deal at the draft or we end up declining his option.

[GLF]

Have to think if he has value, they will find a deal for him at the draft, even if that deal has to be executed in July I'd bet we either hear a reported deal at the draft or we end up declining his option.

And Dan why do you think those are the two options? I’m good with either because personally I don’t want Bruce on this team but for some reason I have a hard time seeing Raptors declining his option. Maybe I’m crazy. Is there also a reason he has to be traded at the draft and not later?

[DanH]

And Dan why do you think those are the two options? I’m good with either because personally I don’t want Bruce on this team but for some reason I have a hard time seeing Raptors declining his option. Maybe I’m crazy. Is there also a reason he has to be traded at the draft and not later?

Not really. Just hard to imagine teams will come out of these playoffs with the idea that Bruce Brown is the sort of guy you want on your team, not be willing to trade any value for him immediately after those playoffs (when it's easier to make deals work with cap room, etc), and then suddenly be willing to give up a lot more to get only a couple months of his services at the deadline instead of a whole season's worth.

If they keep their pick, want to keep Gary, and want to find a guy with the MLE, keeping that option on the books is going to cause tax issues. If they don't do those things, not a big deal to keep him.

[Primer]

They all know ball, but just like professional meteorologists 30 years ago, their ability to predict and forecast the draft accurately is terrible… even for the elite of their profession. And that includes multi-millionaire dollar front office executives.

This is a dumb take.

Way more all stars and all nba players go early in the draft than late or undrafted. The higher a player goes the more likely they become a star. The lower a player goes the more likely they don't stick in the league. That's the proof right there.

Their accuracy is not terrible, it's very good. You just set the bar at absolute perfection which is impossible.

[LJ2]

Have to think if he has value, they will find a deal for him at the draft, even if that deal has to be executed in July I'd bet we either hear a reported deal at the draft or we end up declining his option.

Do you think there would be an appetite or ability to trade Brown on draft night to move up in the draft? Is that likely at all?

[bertarapsfan]

I disagree 100% with the bold.

Please give examples of media guys saying this is a poor draft who don't know ball.

The know can't miss prospect who are hyped to be top 3 picks. But after that they get it wrong all the time. Exhibit A Scottie being outside the top 4 talent.

The lack of superstar prospects and it's hard to take "bad draft" class seriously. Cause these guys rely on can't miss top two or three picks being set on stone.

The number 1 and 2 pick probably are less valuable the other years. But i don't know if i really buy that pick 5 or 6 is so much worse the any other year.