Why does such an ugly offense have such a high ORTG?

[S.R.]

Serious question - a lot of complaints here about the Raps offense, which looks like it should be terrible and bucks all kinds of current trends with minimal ball movement, iso-heavy guard play, and low shooting percentages (at least for the guards - team FG% is not that bad). Multiple guards have neared career lows for ball movement (AST numbers) and FG% this season.

Yet through all of this the Raps have maintained a top 5 ORTG in the league. They're currently #3 of a top 5 rounded out with fantastic offensive teams - the Clippers, Cavs, Warriors, and Hawks. These other four teams are anchored by multiple All-Stars, MVP contenders, and Coach of the Year candidates. The Raps have two one-time All-Stars and don't pass the ball. How does this make any sense?

The ORTG formula is as follows:

100 x Pts / (Tm FGA + .40 x Tm FTA - 1.07 x (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Tm DRB)) x (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TO)

I'm not nearly as gifted with formulas and math as some of you guys, which is where I'm looking for help, but the nearest I can figure is the low TO numbers* and high FT numbers (#3 FTM & #2 FT%) inflate the Raptors ORTG. They're also 4th in PPG and 8th in 3PM.

Personally I have very little faith in the Raps offense - I think it's very defendable and will come down once again to a play like the one to end last season - a Raptors guard dribbling through 3-4 defenders and taking a very low percentage contested shot. (Then there's the issue of a #26 DRTG, which is the worst among playoff teams.)

Edit: The Raps used to have low turnover numbers - their TO Diff is now -1.7, 27th in the league.

[hotfuzz]

low turnovers high free throws and high orebs.

[Jrice9]

The offence is good because it has a ton of good to great offensive players. People also give Casey a bit too much shit for it. For the talent that exists, its not a bad offence.

The criticism of him should be focused on whether the bad defense is his fault

[octothorp]

I think this is a good topic for discussion. ORTG is an interesting formula, in that a lot of the key numbers (Shooting percentages, for example) are not actually in the formula. They are simply reflected in the Pts side of things. But when you approach the question from the opposite side, we're also in the top five in the league for TS%. But if you look at eFG% (which takes into account 2s and 3s, but ignores FTs), we drop down to 8th, while the other teams near the top in TS% are also near the top in eFG%. So yeah, our ORTG is more heavily impacted by free-throws than other top ORTG teams.

It's interesting that several of the top teams in ORTG are amongst the worst teams in ORB% numbers... (Hawks, Clippers, Mavs, Spurs, Warriors are all in the bottom bottom 10 in offensive rebounds). Even though we're middle of the pack in ORB% ourselves, we're better than a lot of the other teams near the top of the ORTG rankings.

Most of us agree that the offence looks ugly. And at least statistically, it's hard to argue that it isn't effective. Though we can argue that it's not sustainable. The low turnover numbers are a product of the offensive style, so those should be sustainable. The FT% should be a sustainable number, because they are one of the numbers least impacted by factors outside of our team. And we don't have any bad FT shooters that the other team can key on.
Our ability to draw FTs is probably the greatest question-mark in terms of sustainability of these numbers... some people say there's a looser whistle in the playoffs, some say it's a tighter whistle. Certainly DeRozan's consistency in getting to the line in the playoffs last year was impressive, and Williams has drawing fouls down to an absolute science. But as a fan it's hard to like the idea that a big part of our gameplan relies on the referees, especially since we don't see ourselves as a market that gets the benefit of the calls. I think you need to assume that even in the playoffs, some games are going to be called looser than norm, others tighter than the norm. And our offensive performance is probably going to swing more based on how a game is called than most teams.

And the other factor is how easy it is for another team to lower our FG% by adapting to our offence over the course of a series. This is one of the things I worry about the most in terms of our offence... that it seems easy to gameplan against, and isn't highly adaptable to different defensive looks. Our lack of success against good teams over the last half of the season suggests that it has, to some extent, already been solved.

If this offence wins in the playoffs, that should be all that matters. As much as I hate watching this offence right now, I'll learn to like it if it proves a winning formula. But I'm skeptical.

[Other Scott]

When it comes down to it, every principle Raptors rotation player except for JJ and maybe Amir and Hansbrough are better at offense than defense. Amir used to be elite defensively, but just doesn't have the same ability to scramble that he used to. His ability to run the pick and roll seems to have suffered less.

This team has a lot of above par offensive pieces and a lot of sub-par defensive pieces. That's the reason for the big offense/ defense splits. Can a better coach create a better defense for the personnel? Sure. Can a better coach create a better offense? I think so, even better than 3rd in the league. But too much on this site has been said about the coach and not enough about the players.The team has fantastic offensive pieces. Work is going to need to be done in the offseason to get defensive pieces that fit as well.

[caccia]

You also have to look at the differences in personnel between the starters and bench. The original White Squad that was so effective early in the season--and more recently--plays slower and has a different style: Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Tyler Hansbrough. That makes it harder to plan for the Raptors.

I have been saying for a while now that Toronto's success in the playoffs will only come if Coach Casey, against traditional wisdom, does not shorten his bench. The White Squad can blow the other teams' bench players off the court, and in the process give the starters more energy for the last five minutes of the game. It's no coincidence that the top six three-man lineups for the Raptors this season are all bench players, and five of them feature Hansbrough. He has the highest ORtg among rotation players, and has had the highest NetRtg all season, by a very large margin (11.3). Right now, he finally has a chance to show a skeptical coaching staff what he can do. James Johnson, the other player who is considered "marginal" in terms of playoff minutes, is in my view essential to the success of the team as a whole, because his slashing offensive style balances out the jumpers and floaters of Vasquez and Williams, and his defence helps compensate for their weakness on that end of the court (7.0 NetRtg).

[golden]

A few reasons, perhaps:

1) The ORTG is inflated against bad teams, and good teams are willing to get us into a high scoring game, knowing they can outscore our bottom 5 defense when it counts.

2) Because our high usage guards conserve energy on defense, leaving more energy for offense.

3) Although the offense can be ugly and predictable, it can also be somewhat un-predictable because Casey seems to be letting the ball-handlers call plays on the fly.

4) JV, Amir and Hansbro are fantastic offensive rebounders.

5) Our bench is better than most benches, with Lou Williams having a career year.

[S.R.]

low turnovers high free throws and high orebs.

I haven't looked at monthly splits, but these truisms from this season's Raptors squad aren't all true anymore.

The Raptors are now -0.4 ORB Diff, their own 10.8 ORB per game planting them squarely average @ 15th in the league. As I mentioned, their TO Diff is now really, really bad @ -1.7, good for 27th in the league. ORB and TO's are not helping them win games anymore, they're actually both net negatives. Although I guess that's off-topic from ORTG a bit - re: the formula the Raps are 3rd in Team TO but again just 15th for Team ORB.

[raptors999]

I haven't looked at monthly splits, but these truisms from this season's Raptors squad aren't all true anymore.

The Raptors are now -0.4 ORB Diff, their own 10.8 ORB per game planting them squarely average @ 15th in the league. As I mentioned, their TO Diff is now really, really bad @ -1.7, good for 27th in the league. ORB and TO's are not helping them win games anymore, they're actually both net negatives.

Okay then high turn over, low Oreb and a friendly whistle -> ECF

[JawsGT]

yeah, the success of the bench certainly has a lot to do with it. there is little to no drop off (if not an increase) in offense with our bench. But it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the playoffs. If opponents shorten their rotation, and we do not, will our bench units still be as effective?

also a concern mentioned above is that our offence is easy to game plan for, and facing the same opponent in a series will give them plenty of opportunity to make adjustments. Will the team be able to score at the same rate throughout a series, or will the offence drop off with each game?

It's been quite the mystery to me how this team has been able to score at the rate it has given the offensive style. It was confusing even in the first 30 games. And that we have been able to maintain a top offence throughout the season despite that teams having gotten better defending us (specifically the best defensive teams), that Derozan missed 20+ games, that Lowry got burned out and is now missing games, that none of our big men are consistently involved in the offence, that GV has been worse for the most part than last season and that Ross has been virtually a non-factor is quite mind-blowing. I must be underestimating the LouWill impact or something. There is more offensive talent on this team than I think I guess.

Too bad we can't defend even at a league average rate...probably have 50+ wins right now and we would all be Raptors fans with our heads held high. Weird season...

[white men can't jump]

You also have to look at the differences in personnel between the starters and bench. The original White Squad that was so effective early in the season--and more recently--plays slower and has a different style: Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Tyler Hansbrough. That makes it harder to plan for the Raptors.

I have been saying for a while now that Toronto's success in the playoffs will only come if Coach Casey, against traditional wisdom, does not shorten his bench. The White Squad can blow the other teams' bench players off the court, and in the process give the starters more energy for the last five minutes of the game. It's no coincidence that the top six three-man lineups for the Raptors this season are all bench players, and five of them feature Hansbrough. He has the highest ORtg among rotation players, and has had the highest NetRtg all season, by a very large margin (11.3). Right now, he finally has a chance to show a skeptical coaching staff what he can do. James Johnson, the other player who is considered "marginal" in terms of playoff minutes, is in my view essential to the success of the team as a whole, because his slashing offensive style balances out the jumpers and floaters of Vasquez and Williams, and his defence helps compensate for their weakness on that end of the court (7.0 NetRtg).

The problem with this logic is that it assumes that they will be playing against other teams' benches, which is something that is less likely in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. And when they are matched up against frontline players, at least just the sense I get from watching them, they can struggle big time.

They are better than most benches, but in the playoffs they will get less opportunity to exploit that. Even just looking at the current projected matchup with the Wiz, it's tough to be optimistic if the Wiz decide to up their starters' minutes. Right now, nobody on their team is averaging 36+ minutes. In the playoffs, it's quite possible that at least Wall, Beal and Gortat all see their minutes closer to 40 or possibly even higher, at least in Wall's case. Can't imagine our bench squad doing very good against a unit that has Wall and at least one of Nene/Gortat on the court. Too much speed/ballhandling on the perimeter, and too much power inside.

*Oh, not to mention that if, say, the opponent does trot out an all(or mostly) bench crew against them the first game of a series, and our squad destroys them, that all but guarantees the opponent will not continue matching up their rotation like that.

[slaw]

I haven't looked at monthly splits, but these truisms from this season's Raptors squad aren't all true anymore.

The Raptors are now -0.4 ORB Diff, their own 10.8 ORB per game planting them squarely average @ 15th in the league. As I mentioned, their TO Diff is now really, really bad @ -1.7, good for 27th in the league. ORB and TO's are not helping them win games anymore, they're actually both net negatives. Although I guess that's off-topic from ORTG a bit - re: the formula the Raps are 3rd in Team TO but again just 15th for Team ORB.

It's all about the 4 factors (all from BR). The overall TOV% is still low ranking 4th in the league. EFG% is 8th. FT/FGA they are 4th. The ORB% puts them 11th. That's all pretty good stuff.

The criticism of the offense is warranted for poor situational basketball and questionable tactics. But, overall, the offense is fine. The defense sucks. Improving the offense marginally, or even materially, isn't going ot matter much cause the Raps can't stop anyone.

[golden]

I'd have to guess that the main reason is for the high ORTG is that the players are willing to make the bad defense for good offense tradeoff. I would guess that player's are giving up on Casey's hyper-help defense, and saving their energy for offense.

It's not really that difficult to have a top 5 offence even with mediocre talent, if you're willing to tank your defense. Sam Mitchell did it with the 2005-06 Raps squad. The infamous Mike James year. 3 mediocre guards (Mo-P, James, Jalen) + an emerging Bosh (true star) gave us a 4th ranked offense & 29th ranked defense.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2006.html

[tDotted]

For the talent that exists, its not a bad offence.

This doesn't make much sense to me. An ISO heavy offense requires elite players to maintain throughout a season. You're agreeing (right?) that we don't have elite players, so doesn't that make it a horrible offence to run?

[raptors999]

This doesn't make much sense to me. An ISO heavy offense requires elite players to maintain throughout a season. You're agreeing (right?) that we don't have elite players, so doesn't that make it a horrible offence to run?

How hard do opposing team defend when they are getting to the rim at will. Teams play loose then turn it up 4Q. Bulls have done it every game this season