Why does such an ugly offense have such a high ORTG?

[Other Scott]

When it comes down to it, every principle Raptors rotation player except for JJ and maybe Amir and Hansbrough are better at offense than defense. Amir used to be elite defensively, but just doesn't have the same ability to scramble that he used to. His ability to run the pick and roll seems to have suffered less.

This team has a lot of above par offensive pieces and a lot of sub-par defensive pieces. That's the reason for the big offense/ defense splits. Can a better coach create a better defense for the personnel? Sure. Can a better coach create a better offense? I think so, even better than 3rd in the league. But too much on this site has been said about the coach and not enough about the players.The team has fantastic offensive pieces. Work is going to need to be done in the offseason to get defensive pieces that fit as well.

[octothorp]

I think this is a good topic for discussion. ORTG is an interesting formula, in that a lot of the key numbers (Shooting percentages, for example) are not actually in the formula. They are simply reflected in the Pts side of things. But when you approach the question from the opposite side, we're also in the top five in the league for TS%. But if you look at eFG% (which takes into account 2s and 3s, but ignores FTs), we drop down to 8th, while the other teams near the top in TS% are also near the top in eFG%. So yeah, our ORTG is more heavily impacted by free-throws than other top ORTG teams.

It's interesting that several of the top teams in ORTG are amongst the worst teams in ORB% numbers... (Hawks, Clippers, Mavs, Spurs, Warriors are all in the bottom bottom 10 in offensive rebounds). Even though we're middle of the pack in ORB% ourselves, we're better than a lot of the other teams near the top of the ORTG rankings.

Most of us agree that the offence looks ugly. And at least statistically, it's hard to argue that it isn't effective. Though we can argue that it's not sustainable. The low turnover numbers are a product of the offensive style, so those should be sustainable. The FT% should be a sustainable number, because they are one of the numbers least impacted by factors outside of our team. And we don't have any bad FT shooters that the other team can key on.
Our ability to draw FTs is probably the greatest question-mark in terms of sustainability of these numbers... some people say there's a looser whistle in the playoffs, some say it's a tighter whistle. Certainly DeRozan's consistency in getting to the line in the playoffs last year was impressive, and Williams has drawing fouls down to an absolute science. But as a fan it's hard to like the idea that a big part of our gameplan relies on the referees, especially since we don't see ourselves as a market that gets the benefit of the calls. I think you need to assume that even in the playoffs, some games are going to be called looser than norm, others tighter than the norm. And our offensive performance is probably going to swing more based on how a game is called than most teams.

And the other factor is how easy it is for another team to lower our FG% by adapting to our offence over the course of a series. This is one of the things I worry about the most in terms of our offence... that it seems easy to gameplan against, and isn't highly adaptable to different defensive looks. Our lack of success against good teams over the last half of the season suggests that it has, to some extent, already been solved.

If this offence wins in the playoffs, that should be all that matters. As much as I hate watching this offence right now, I'll learn to like it if it proves a winning formula. But I'm skeptical.

[Jrice9]

The offence is good because it has a ton of good to great offensive players. People also give Casey a bit too much shit for it. For the talent that exists, its not a bad offence.

The criticism of him should be focused on whether the bad defense is his fault

[hotfuzz]

low turnovers high free throws and high orebs.

[S.R.]

Serious question - a lot of complaints here about the Raps offense, which looks like it should be terrible and bucks all kinds of current trends with minimal ball movement, iso-heavy guard play, and low shooting percentages (at least for the guards - team FG% is not that bad). Multiple guards have neared career lows for ball movement (AST numbers) and FG% this season.

Yet through all of this the Raps have maintained a top 5 ORTG in the league. They're currently #3 of a top 5 rounded out with fantastic offensive teams - the Clippers, Cavs, Warriors, and Hawks. These other four teams are anchored by multiple All-Stars, MVP contenders, and Coach of the Year candidates. The Raps have two one-time All-Stars and don't pass the ball. How does this make any sense?

The ORTG formula is as follows:

100 x Pts / (Tm FGA + .40 x Tm FTA - 1.07 x (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Tm DRB)) x (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TO)

I'm not nearly as gifted with formulas and math as some of you guys, which is where I'm looking for help, but the nearest I can figure is the low TO numbers* and high FT numbers (#3 FTM & #2 FT%) inflate the Raptors ORTG. They're also 4th in PPG and 8th in 3PM.

Personally I have very little faith in the Raps offense - I think it's very defendable and will come down once again to a play like the one to end last season - a Raptors guard dribbling through 3-4 defenders and taking a very low percentage contested shot. (Then there's the issue of a #26 DRTG, which is the worst among playoff teams.)

Edit: The Raps used to have low turnover numbers - their TO Diff is now -1.7, 27th in the league.