Why does such an ugly offense have such a high ORTG?

[Jrice9]

This doesn't make much sense to me. An ISO heavy offense requires elite players to maintain throughout a season. You're agreeing (right?) that we don't have elite players, so doesn't that make it a horrible offence to run?

We have players like Lou Williams and Grieves and DeMar who aren't spot up shooters and create a lot of their offense off the bounce its not a terrible idea.

[raptors999]

We have players like Lou Williams and Grieves and DeMar who aren't spot up shooters and create a lot of their offense off the bounce its not a terrible idea.

Only Lou shoots better off the bounce, everyone else are better catch and shoot. Demar may be better midrange but he isn't taking corner threes off the dribble.

[octothorp]

The problem with this logic is that it assumes that they will be playing against other teams' benches, which is something that is less likely in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. And when they are matched up against frontline players, at least just the sense I get from watching them, they can struggle big time.

I'd be curious to see how they do against another team's starters when the other team shortens the bench. Personally, I like the thought of an opponent shortening their bench and then forcing their starting guards to chase Lou around and suckered into unnecessary fouls... same with Hansbrough pushing with their bigs, or making their PF run out after Patterson on the perimeter. Over a single game, no, the bench might not match up well against the other team's starters, but if the other team is determined to play the whole series with a shortened bench, our starters are going to be fresher late in the series, and our bench has the potential to steal us a game.

[OldSkoolCool]

As inefficient as the guards are, they have been carried by the fantastic shooting percentages of ALL of our bigs plus James Johnson.

JJ, Amir, and JV are all leading the league in shooting percentages, on a decent amount of shots (approx 21 per game)

And low TO's and lots of FT's

Either way it is more of a false positive than anything else. The system is being propped up by some amazing play from our big guys

[Mindlessness]

As inefficient as the guards are, they have been carried by the fantastic shooting percentages of ALL of our bigs plus James Johnson.

JJ, Amir, and JV are all leading the league in shooting percentages, on a decent amount of shots (approx 21 per game)

And low TO's and lots of FT's

Either way it is more of a false positive than anything else. The system is being propped up by some amazing play from our big guys

I wonder what happens if we substitute in average players who shoot at average percentages compared to the league for JV, AJ, and JJ. How would our ORTG look then?

Too late for me to do this, might do it tomorrow just to see the results. Might post it.

[distorsun]

I think this is a good topic for discussion. ORTG is an interesting formula, in that a lot of the key numbers (Shooting percentages, for example) are not actually in the formula. They are simply reflected in the Pts side of things. But when you approach the question from the opposite side, we're also in the top five in the league for TS%. But if you look at eFG% (which takes into account 2s and 3s, but ignores FTs), we drop down to 8th, while the other teams near the top in TS% are also near the top in eFG%. So yeah, our ORTG is more heavily impacted by free-throws than other top ORTG teams.

It's interesting that several of the top teams in ORTG are amongst the worst teams in ORB% numbers... (Hawks, Clippers, Mavs, Spurs, Warriors are all in the bottom bottom 10 in offensive rebounds). Even though we're middle of the pack in ORB% ourselves, we're better than a lot of the other teams near the top of the ORTG rankings.

Most of us agree that the offence looks ugly. And at least statistically, it's hard to argue that it isn't effective. Though we can argue that it's not sustainable. The low turnover numbers are a product of the offensive style, so those should be sustainable. The FT% should be a sustainable number, because they are one of the numbers least impacted by factors outside of our team. And we don't have any bad FT shooters that the other team can key on.
Our ability to draw FTs is probably the greatest question-mark in terms of sustainability of these numbers... some people say there's a looser whistle in the playoffs, some say it's a tighter whistle. Certainly DeRozan's consistency in getting to the line in the playoffs last year was impressive, and Williams has drawing fouls down to an absolute science. But as a fan it's hard to like the idea that a big part of our gameplan relies on the referees, especially since we don't see ourselves as a market that gets the benefit of the calls. I think you need to assume that even in the playoffs, some games are going to be called looser than norm, others tighter than the norm. And our offensive performance is probably going to swing more based on how a game is called than most teams.

And the other factor is how easy it is for another team to lower our FG% by adapting to our offence over the course of a series. This is one of the things I worry about the most in terms of our offence... that it seems easy to gameplan against, and isn't highly adaptable to different defensive looks. Our lack of success against good teams over the last half of the season suggests that it has, to some extent, already been solved.

If this offence wins in the playoffs, that should be all that matters. As much as I hate watching this offence right now, I'll learn to like it if it proves a winning formula. But I'm skeptical.

Check out the numbers vs the Nets last year (we had 3 games we scored 87pts-87-83). You're right to be skeptical.

[raptors999]

I wonder what happens if we substitute in average players who shoot at average percentages compared to the league for JV, AJ, and JJ. How would our ORTG look then?

Too late for me to do this, might do it tomorrow just to see the results. Might post it.

Pretty much the same. JV never gets the ball, AJ rarely has any role and JJ doesn't play. If Demar or Lou has a rash the ORtg plummets.

[OldSkoolCool]

I wonder what happens if we substitute in average players who shoot at average percentages compared to the league for JV, AJ, and JJ. How would our ORTG look then?

Too late for me to do this, might do it tomorrow just to see the results. Might post it.

+1

Would like to see the results

[distorsun]

yeah, the success of the bench certainly has a lot to do with it. there is little to no drop off (if not an increase) in offense with our bench. But it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the playoffs. If opponents shorten their rotation, and we do not, will our bench units still be as effective?

also a concern mentioned above is that our offence is easy to game plan for, and facing the same opponent in a series will give them plenty of opportunity to make adjustments. Will the team be able to score at the same rate throughout a series, or will the offence drop off with each game?

It's been quite the mystery to me how this team has been able to score at the rate it has given the offensive style. It was confusing even in the first 30 games. And that we have been able to maintain a top offence throughout the season despite that teams having gotten better defending us (specifically the best defensive teams), that Derozan missed 20+ games, that Lowry got burned out and is now missing games, that none of our big men are consistently involved in the offence, that GV has been worse for the most part than last season and that Ross has been virtually a non-factor is quite mind-blowing. I must be underestimating the LouWill impact or something. There is more offensive talent on this team than I think I guess.

Too bad we can't defend even at a league average rate...probably have 50+ wins right now and we would all be Raptors fans with our heads held high. Weird season...

The offensive talent on the team is GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED.
I ask someone a question :"who can you leave open on the raptors lineups"
now take another eastern team and do the same, you'll find that Quantity wise, we have a lot of SCORE 1ST GUYS WHO CAN SHOOT THE BALL (even on Iso).
At some point, WE WILL HAVE TO SACRIFICE some offense for defense (ie Dallas with Rondo), but we just need to find the right balance.

[raptors999]

The offensive talent on the team is GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED.
I ask someone a question :"who can you leave open on the raptors lineups"
now take another eastern team and do the same, you'll find that Quantity wise, we have a lot of SCORE 1ST GUYS WHO CAN SHOOT THE BALL (even on Iso).
At some point, WE WILL HAVE TO SACRIFICE some offense for defense (ie Dallas with Rondo), but we just need to find the right balance.

Lots of guys can't be left open but nobody except JV requires a double. Lou causes the same issues that the Hawks had with a small SG paired with a small PG Lowry or a pylon in GV.

[statler]

this is a good thread, something i've been wondering all season because our offense does not pass the eye test.

It's all about the 4 factors (all from BR). The overall TOV% is still low ranking 4th in the league. EFG% is 8th. FT/FGA they are 4th. The ORB% puts them 11th. That's all pretty good stuff.

The criticism of the offense is warranted for poor situational basketball and questionable tactics. But, overall, the offense is fine. The defense sucks. Improving the offense marginally, or even materially, isn't going ot matter much cause the Raps can't stop anyone.

I agree with this. Would explain our high ORTG. but I don't agree that the offense is fine, and i think the 4 factor explanation here shows why it's fool's gold. our ISO heavy, perimeter oriented offense means that we are generating 0 easy buckets. we have no system to turn to when we NEED a bucket. which is why we're such a streaky team within games. when we're hot, we're hot. when we're not, there's no way out. we have no consistency.

The worst part of this is that we're predictable and easy to stop. the book is out on how to stop us, because it's pretty easy to scout an individual as opposed to scouting a system. Lou's got the ball? keep your hands down and be ready for him to fade left. Demar's got the ball? body him up with a long defender and coax him into a turnaround fade. and so on. when the opposing defense is engaged and the iso d picks up (as in, every fourth quarter in tight games), we're screwed unless someone goes god mode.

look at the other top offenses (aka the ones that are actually good). they have systems that move the ball and generate easy looks. if someone is hot, fine, ride them. but if a cold spell hits, start moving the ball, creating open space, and making easy looks. that's how you unshackle yourself from the 'hot hand' and become a real offense. unlike ours.

[golden]

It's all about the 4 factors (all from BR). The overall TOV% is still low ranking 4th in the league. EFG% is 8th. FT/FGA they are 4th. The ORB% puts them 11th. That's all pretty good stuff.

The criticism of the offense is warranted for poor situational basketball and questionable tactics. But, overall, the offense is fine. The defense sucks. Improving the offense marginally, or even materially, isn't going ot matter much cause the Raps can't stop anyone.

Just a theory, but IMO, the offense and defense are intricately linked in a way that can never be measured statistically. Energy & effort.

High usage ISO offence requires high energy output from the player to create his own shot, so the high usage guards are conserving energy on D. Casey's high energy help D scheme compounds the situation.

[raptors999]

Just a theory, but IMO, the offense and defense are intricately linked in a way that can never be measured statistically. Energy & effort.

High usage ISO offence requires high energy output from the player to create his own shot, so the high usage guards are conserving energy on D. Casey's high energy help D scheme compounds the situation.

They're conserving too much energy. They should at least put their hands up. Maybe a power bar between quarters would reduce blowbys

[Jrice9]

As inefficient as the guards are, they have been carried by the fantastic shooting percentages of ALL of our bigs plus James Johnson.

JJ, Amir, and JV are all leading the league in shooting percentages, on a decent amount of shots (approx 21 per game)

And low TO's and lots of FT's

Either way it is more of a false positive than anything else. The system is being propped up by some amazing play from our big guys

Is there any chance iyo that part of the reason the bigs offense is so efficient is because of the pressure that is alleviated by the guards or the playmaking of the guards themselves

[Jrice9]

Just a theory, but IMO, the offense and defense are intricately linked in a way that can never be measured statistically. Energy & effort.

High usage ISO offence requires high energy output from the player to create his own shot, so the high usage guards are conserving energy on D. Casey's high energy help D scheme compounds the situation.

This seems like a narrative that is worth questioning. Because in an iso heavy offence, there is less movement by the other 4 players who can then rest on offense and work harder on defence.

We also have alot of "rest time" because we are so high in FTAs (which also helps transition defence)

The problems on defence imo are independant of the offence and imo are the result of personnel more than scheme (though I think the scheme may be making it worse though its hard to figure out)