X Degrees of the Toronto Raptors - Next 2 years

[Bandit]

I think this is a pretty unique time in the franchise for the Raptors. Over the next 2 off seasons a lot is going to be happening:

- Cap Jump unlike any the league has had before
- Raptors have no horrible contracts with only 28 million on the books for 2016.
- Exclusive D league affiliate coming into play
- An ownership group willing to spend where it counts
- An interesting mix of talent that allows for all sorts of moves
- Have some nice Draft picks still
- Any contracts we still have around are able to be moved
- Raps host the ASG

There has been some talk about how important this offseason is and I'm not sure that this statement has ever been more true for the Raptors.

We've talked a lot about this years draft, about free agents, restricted agents and potential trade candidates. We've talked about coaching replacements, and about ways to use the D league.

I'm curious to see how everyone would bring it all together. If you were MU, and you had this wide open platter to do whatever you wanted, what would you do over the next 2 years?

What trades are you looking to make? Who do you want to target in FA? Try to keep everything realistic, trades that make sense and FA signings at prices that make sense. Who do you draft? Do you try to move up or get more picks for the next 2 years? What do you do next year? What type of core do you want to use for the raptors? How do you use the D league team? What do you do about the ASG? Who coaches your team?

I'm curious how everyone views the current situation. It truly is unique in the history of the NBA.

I'm going to post mine later tonight, almost done work and don't plan on sticking around.

[Bonus Jonas]

I work right now but when I get home I'll do two scenarios, one of what I think is gonna happen and the other if we blew it up completely.

[Bandit]

My approach is quite simple, go all in on the next couple of drafts to acquire some young talent that you can lock down on what could be extremely cost effective contracts when the cap jumps. You have some young developing talent, lots of cap space, and I think you could be a pretty good destination for a star in either the summer of 2016 or 2017. So it probably won't be very popular for a couple years...

To start I let all my FA walk.

I have three players I really target in the draft. Russel, Hezonja and Winslow.

I try to make a three team deal With Den and Sac. Lowry to Den, Lawson to Sac, D Williams and stauskas to Tor with both first round picks. We can send out our own first rounder this year along with future second rounders to fill in any gaps.

Then I try DD and Ross to LA for jordan hill and their first.

I also try to buy one of Philly's second rounders (35/37) if Lucas is on the table still, then I put him on my Dleague team with Deandre Daniels.

GV/Russel
Mathews/Winslow/Stauskas
Hezonja/JJ/Bruno
JHill/Ppat/Williams
JV/Bebe

Finding a young, hungry, intelligent and promising coach is my next step. Probably remodel the whole coaching staff.

In FA I look for a guy like Wes Mathews on a 1-2 year deal to come prove he can still play while allowing future flexibility.

I think this roster has the ability to compete at a high enough level to possibly make the playoffs, especially if we use the rest of our cap space to sign a veteran or two and the rooks can contribute.

With a young group of JV/Russel/Winslow/Hezonja/Bruno you have everything covered for down the road if you can develop this talent, and i think you have a strong starting 5 in 2-3 years. You also have the luxury of picking and choosing who you're core is while moving forward.

The Dleague is important to ensure you have enough playing time for the young guns, and if you cant get them all minutes somewhere an approach like this wouldn't be worth it.

Just my 2 cents

[DanH]

Zero chance you get two top 10 picks for Lowry. That's madness.

[Bonus Jonas]

Sorry for the late answer and I got too lazy to do one for what I think realistically happen. So this is my approach of what to do to rebuild completely in two years. Some luck is needed (mainly 2 things have to break our way, even though they would both be reasonably likely to happen.

So here we go, two year rebuild:

1. #FireCasey. Hire a young coach, go HARD after Hoiberg, try to get Cassell, or Tyronn Lue. Stressing young, someone that can develop young talent.
2. Trade Demar Derozan to Denver for Wilson Chandler and their pick (#7 if they don't move up). Use some Masai magic and charisma to try to convince Denver to let us switch our firsts in 2016, but if we can't, it's not a big deal
3. Trade Kyle Lowry to Sacramento for Jason Thompson, their pick (#6 if they don't move up) and try very very hard to have them throw in Nik Stauskas. I think this can be done as we're doing them a favour by taking Thompson's contract (which goes into the 2017 season, aka less cap space 2016 offseason bonanza)
4. Only do this step if you can get Stauskas added to the last trade. If you can't, skip this step. Trade Terrence Ross to Oklahoma City for Perry Jones.
5. Assuming no draft picks move up, our draft night should go:
#6 - Hezonja or Winslow (whoever's left, almost certainly Hezonja)
#7 - Porzingis
#20 - Lucas
6. Let every free agent walk.
7. Sign Valanciunas to a 5year/65M extension (13M per, give him 14M if need be).
8. Sign our 3 draft picks to 120% of the scale.
9. At this point, we have 49.6M tied up this season. Use remaining cap space to offer Reggie Jackson the max (4year/72M starting at 16.7M with 5% increases). This is the first thing that we need luck with, because we need Detroit to not match. I don't think they do because I don't think Stan Van Gundy can justify to Detroit ownership how he has 25M tied up in two point guards, and Reggie Jackson really isn't worth the max, AND Detroit ownership already did him a huge favour by allowing him to stretch provision Josh Smith (another 7M per season). So I'm gonna assume we land Jackson.
10. Use your exception to sign a cheap insurance guard (we have 3.2M to spend and it really doesn't matter who it is, but if I had my pick, I'd want Willie Green. Essentially an extra coach as he's a future coach)

Going into 2015-16 our depth chart is:

Jackson-Vasquez-Lucas
Stauskas-Hezonja-Green
Chandler-Johnson-Caboclo
Thompson-Patterson-Jones
Valanciunas-Noguiera-Porzingis

Salaries:
RJ-16.7 / GV-6.6 / GL-1.45
NS-2.87 / MH-3.40 / WG-3.2
WC-7.17 / JJ-2.5 / BC-1.52
JT-6.43 / PP-6 / PJ-2.04
JV-4.66 / LN-1.84 / KP-3.11

Giving us a total of: 66.29/67 +3.2/3.2 exception

I think this team (assuming we have good coaching) struggles a bit but competes for the playoffs, ultimately ending up 9th-11th in the East.

Will do my next season in my next post.

[DanH]

As a note, max is only 15.8M for RFA's.

I like your plan for the most part. With that much cap room though, I'd try to go after Middleton and then with the leftover throw an offer towards Cory Joseph.

Also as a note, if you want to maximize cap space, signing rookies should be done last, as their cap holds are only 100% of the scale.

[MACK11]

Sorry for the late answer and I got too lazy to do one for what I think realistically happen. So this is my approach of what to do to rebuild completely in two years. Some luck is needed (mainly 2 things have to break our way, even though they would both be reasonably likely to happen.

So here we go, two year rebuild:

1. #FireCasey. Hire a young coach, go HARD after Hoidberg, try to get Cassell, or Tyronn Lue. Stressing young, someone that can develop young talent.
2. Trade Demar Derozan to Denver for Wilson Chandler and their pick (#7 if they don't move up). Use some Masai magic and charisma to try to convince Denver to let us switch our firsts in 2016, but if we can't, it's not a big deal
3. Trade Kyle Lowry to Sacramento for Jason Thompson, their pick (#6 if they don't move up) and try very very hard to have them throw in Nik Stauskas. I think this can be done as we're doing them a favour by taking Thompson's contract (which goes into the 2017 season, aka less cap space 2016 offseason bonanza)
4. Only do this step if you can get Stauskas added to the last trade. If you can't, skip this step. Trade Terrence Ross to Oklahoma City for Perry Jones.
5. Assuming no draft picks move up, our draft night should go:
#6 - Hezonja or Winslow (whoever's left, almost certainly Hezonja)
#7 - Porzingis
#20 - Lucas
6. Let every free agent walk.
7. Sign Valanciunas to a 5year/65M extension (13M per, give him 14M if need be).
8. Sign our 3 draft picks to 120% of the scale.
9. At this point, we have 49.6M tied up this season. Use remaining cap space to offer Reggie Jackson the max (4year/72M starting at 16.7M with 5% increases). This is the first thing that we need luck with, because we need Detroit to not match. I don't think they do because I don't think Stan Van Gundy can justify to Detroit ownership how he has 25M tied up in two point guards, and Reggie Jackson really isn't worth the max, AND Detroit ownership already did him a huge favour by allowing him to stretch provision Josh Smith (another 7M per season). So I'm gonna assume we land Jackson.
10. Use your exception to sign a cheap insurance guard (we have 3.2M to spend and it really doesn't matter who it is, but if I had my pick, I'd want Willie Green. Essentially an extra coach as he's a future coach)

Going into 2015-16 our depth chart is:

Jackson-Vasquez-Lucas
Stauskas-Hezonja-Green
Chandler-Johnson-Caboclo
Thompson-Patterson-Jones
Valanciunas-Noguiera-Porzingis

Salaries:
RJ-16.7 / GV-6.6 / GL-1.45
NS-2.87 / MH-3.40 / WG-3.2
WC-7.17 / JJ-2.5 / BC-1.52
JT-6.43 / PP-6 / PJ-2.04
JV-4.66 / LN-1.84 / KP-3.11

Giving us a total of: 66.29/67 +3.2/3.2 exception

I think this team (assuming we have good coaching) struggles a bit but competes for the playoffs, ultimately ending up 9th-11th in the East.

Will do my next season in my next post.

I like this plan except singing Reggie Jackson to a max contract.

[Bonus Jonas]

Forgot to mention, D-league team is essential as soon as possible to get Lucas, Caboclo, Nogueira, Porzingis, Daniels consistent playing time to develop.

Okay so let's assume we end the 2015-16 season as 10th in the East, 18th overall and land the #13 pick with our own pick. Also, let's assume the worse pick between Denver/New York lands at #10 overall.

1. Trade Jason Thompson and our 2017 first (lottery protected) to any team willing to absorb Thompson's last year on his contract at 6.83M. Use the rights to Daniels if necessary, we'll assume it was necessary.
2. Let Vasquez, Chandler and Johnson walk. Evaluate how Perry Jones did, and decide on if he should be resigned.
3. Again, assuming no draft picks move up, our draft night should go:
#10 - Demetrius Jackson
#13 - Thon Maker
(Admittedly don't know a lot about this draft yet and and basing these picks off videos I've seen of Maker and the fact that DraftExpress has Jackson as a pass first PG that'll go 13th overall in 2016)
4. Not sure what rookie scales will look like with the cap going up so I'll assume Maker and Jackson can be signed with 5M total for the first year.
5. At this point, we have 51.4M tied up in the 2016-17 season (on 9 players, assuming no Jones). So after roster holds and an 89M salary cap, we have roughly 36M to spend on free agents. The max for a player would be 26.7M. So this is the second thing we need luck with, and that's convincing Durant to sign with us. Pitch young but very talented team with a core of Valanciunas/Jackson/Hezonja. Pitch easy eastern conference with an aging Lebron. Pitch our talented coach (please be Hoiberg). Pitch the great city, the great GM, ownership willing to spend to win, Drizzy Drake making an entire album about you, great pieces on the team (PPat, Porzingis, Stauskas, Caboclo). So hopefully Durant signs to a monstrous max contract of 4year/115M (starting at 26.7M with 5% increases)
6. Fill out the roster with a combo guard, another center and a defensive wing with the ~10M cap space and 3.2M exception.


Going into 2016-17 our depth chart is:

R. Jackson-FA Combo Guard-D. Jackson-Lucas
Hezonja-Stauskas
Durant-Caboclo-FA Wing
Porzingis-Patterson-Maker
Valanciunas-Nogueira-FA Center

Win multiple championships, bring Toronto to basketball glory.

EDIT: After a very quick look at the free agent class of 2016, my selections would be:

Combo Guard: Ramon Sessions/Mario Chalmers
Defensive Wing: James Johnson/Al-farouq Aminu
Center: Zaza Pachulia/Timofey Mosgov

[Bonus Jonas]

As a note, max is only 15.8M for RFA's.

I like your plan for the most part. With that much cap room though, I'd try to go after Middleton and then with the leftover throw an offer towards Cory Joseph.

Also as a note, if you want to maximize cap space, signing rookies should be done last, as their cap holds are only 100% of the scale.

I like this plan except singing Reggie Jackson to a max contract.

Reggie Jackson because I had to get Durant in my scenario so I needed to sign a PG of the future this offseason and I'd rather Jackson over Rondo or Beverley or Joseph.

Max contract because Detroit won't match and it really doesn't affect us down the road since nearly everyone on the team is in a rookie contract aha

EDIT: Signed rookies first since I'm not a cap whiz and how come max changes for RFA's?

[DanH]

Max changes based on experience. 25% of the cap for 0-6 years experience, 30% for 7-9 years experience, and 35% for 10+ years experience. Except those percentages are not actually percentages of the cap - they are percentages of an older version of the cap calculation, that used 42.14% instead of 44.74% of revenue. So about 5% lower than straight percentages would suggest. Hence 15.8M instead of 16.7M for a 67M cap.

[DanH]

Oh, and Jackson over Knight?

Frankly I think I might prefer Joseph of the entire PG crop, which is great for me since he'll be cheap, comparatively.

[Bonus Jonas]

Max changes based on experience. 25% of the cap for 0-6 years experience, 30% for 7-9 years experience, and 35% for 10+ years experience. Except those percentages are not actually percentages of the cap - they are percentages of an older version of the cap calculation, that used 42.14% instead of 44.74% of revenue. So about 5% lower than straight percentages would suggest. Hence 15.8M instead of 16.7M for a 67M cap.

Makes sense. So my 26.7M for 2016-17 is off also. By the way did they say what the rookie scales will be in 2016 with the cap rise or will that happen when they officially announce what the cap is going up to?

Oh, and Jackson over Knight?

Frankly I think I might prefer Joseph of the entire PG crop, which is great for me since he'll be cheap, comparatively.

Forgot about Knight, that's actually a viable option over Jackson but it's a pretty good argument as to who will end up as a better player 3 years from now. And as much as I like Joseph as a realistic target, (I actually want him signed to be our backup next year) I don't think he could be a starter on a championship calibre team, and that's what I wanted to make.

[DanH]

Rookie scale deals are set through 2016. They will only change potentially in 2017 when the next CBA negotiation occurs.

I like Joseph because I'm a fan of a) pass first point guards and b) defence at the point of attack (Joseph is potentially a premiere guard defender). Oh and c) any player coming out of that San Antonio system. I'd rather pay big money to wing players and bigs and have a serviceable point guard. Most championship teams were not led by point guards. Tony Parker is great (although the Spurs are the exception to every rule, plus they have always been a three headed monster with Manu and Duncan as well), but look at the other recent champion PG's. Chalmers. A barely alive Jason Kidd. Derek Fisher. Rondo was a 4th wheel when Boston won their championship.

[Bonus Jonas]

Rookie scale deals are set through 2016. They will only change potentially in 2017 when the next CBA negotiation occurs.

I like Joseph because I'm a fan of a) pass first point guards and b) defence at the point of attack (Joseph is potentially a premiere guard defender). Oh and c) any player coming out of that San Antonio system. I'd rather pay big money to wing players and bigs and have a serviceable point guard. Most championship teams were not led by point guards. Tony Parker is great (although the Spurs are the exception to every rule, plus they have always been a three headed monster with Manu and Duncan as well), but look at the other recent champion PG's. Chalmers. A barely alive Jason Kidd. Derek Fisher. Rondo was a 4th wheel when Boston won their championship.

I agree with the fact that most teams haven't been led by PG's but I feel that now that the league is shifting towards a ton of ball movement offense that the PG position will be crucial. Tony Parker last year, Steph Curry and Jeff Teague this year.

I don't think you need an all star or MVP candidate but I definitely think going forward you're going to need a top15 PG or a SG that can run an offense (Harden type) to be able to win. Joseph isn't that to me.

But I could be wrong and the trend of average at best PG's winning championships could continue.

[DanH]

As it has ever been in the history of the NBA, your offensive centrepiece should be a SF or a SG (Harden, LBJ, Durant, etc) rather than a PG.

Frankly, with more teams shifting to a ball-movement philosophy, it is even more important not to have a ball dominant PG. Teague is actually a great example - that's a guy no one offers the max for, but he works great in that system, because he can move the ball, shoot the 3, and defend.