Rebuild ... What does it really mean ??

[danno]

Tank for one year = trade DeRozan and Lowry for a top 10 pick each this year. Then tank for a top pick next year, plus a possible lotto pick in 2016. Then maybe you keep losing if the talent you got isn't good enough, or you don't if it is - natural progression of things. Odds are you don't win much the second year either, but it won't be by intentionally tanking - you'd look to add talent in free agency. But with the core being young you are probably looking at another top 10 pick, though not tank-range.

With two valuable trade pieces in DD and Lowry, and with a reportedly good draft pick market for current talent, the two top picks from this year are like tanking last year and this (with our 20th last year and this as bonuses), next year's top pick is like tanking this year and NYK's pick is a bonus. It's a 3 year tank (with only one year of actually losing, and probably only one year of a top 5 pick unless you can really tempt NYK this year).

Man we are lucky you aren't running the team. Trade the 2 best players for young unproven talent and plan for 3 years of losing. Just wow .......

[MixxAOR]

Anybody knows what the prospects look like in 2016-2018 draft. Thon Maker is not doing well that's all I know

[DanH]

Man we are lucky you aren't running the team. Trade the 2 best players for young unproven talent and plan for 3 years of losing. Just wow .......

When the two best players (and that's arguable) are borderline all-stars who may never make the team again, yeah, that's crazy talk.

Oh, and you clearly read my comment very closely. Plan is for one year and maybe two (but as part of the growth curve) of losing.

[DanH]

Anybody knows what the prospects look like in 2016-2018 draft. Thon Maker is not doing well that's all I know

Too far out to look. All drafts are pretty similar once you get close to them, with few exceptions (rule changes can screw with things, like in the Bargs draft). And high school rankings line up pretty terribly with how drafts actually go.

[MixxAOR]

Too far out to look. All drafts are pretty similar once you get close to them, with few exceptions (rule changes can screw with things, like in the Bargs draft). And high school rankings line up pretty terribly with how drafts actually go.

would be the most Raptors thing ever to tank during weak draft years lmao

[DanH]

would be the most Raptors thing ever to tank during weak draft years lmao

Nah, it would be the most Raptors thing ever to tank during what is supposed to be a strong draft year, then after the fact it turns out it was a weak one in hindsight.

[McRealistic]

Tank for one year = trade DeRozan and Lowry for a top 10 pick each this year. Then tank for a top pick next year, plus a possible lotto pick in 2016. Then maybe you keep losing if the talent you got isn't good enough, or you don't if it is - natural progression of things. Odds are you don't win much the second year either, but it won't be by intentionally tanking - you'd look to add talent in free agency. But with the core being young you are probably looking at another top 10 pick, though not tank-range.

With two valuable trade pieces in DD and Lowry, and with a reportedly good draft pick market for current talent, the two top picks from this year are like tanking last year and this (with our 20th last year and this as bonuses), next year's top pick is like tanking this year and NYK's pick is a bonus. It's a 3 year tank (with only one year of actually losing, and probably only one year of a top 5 pick unless you can really tempt NYK this year).

It sounds like an interesting plan DanH and I said earlier in this thread that I can buy into it but the more I think about it, the more questions I have.

1) You will get 2 top 10 picks for DD and KL. I doubt it if you can get a top 4 picks for either of them this year so for the sake of the argument lets assume it is from 5-10. Given the history of the draft, Given that both players are very good, the best case scenario for these picks will be a player like DD or Lowry in 4 years and nothing more. Basically, it is more probable that you will not get a Super Star from these two picks, rather than a serviceable player and at max two all stars.

2) lotto in 2016 + 20 th this year + 2016 of NY : It does not seem any of these will lead to a Super star and it will be very optimistic to say we can get another all star from these. If we say that, we are basically claiming that we are so good at draft that we can get 3 All Star from 5 draft picks that are not top 4 in two years ...

So how are we fixing the Super Star problem in Toronto and how can we get over the hump that we are facing now with these guys ?

[MixxAOR]

Tank for Skal

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Tank for one year = trade DeRozan and Lowry for a top 10 pick each this year. Then tank for a top pick next year, plus a possible lotto pick in 2016. Then maybe you keep losing if the talent you got isn't good enough, or you don't if it is - natural progression of things. Odds are you don't win much the second year either, but it won't be by intentionally tanking - you'd look to add talent in free agency. But with the core being young you are probably looking at another top 10 pick, though not tank-range.

With two valuable trade pieces in DD and Lowry, and with a reportedly good draft pick market for current talent, the two top picks from this year are like tanking last year and this (with our 20th last year and this as bonuses), next year's top pick is like tanking this year and NYK's pick is a bonus. It's a 3 year tank (with only one year of actually losing, and probably only one year of a top 5 pick unless you can really tempt NYK this year).

The stars really are potentially aligning for a 1-year tank:
- 2015 #20 pick
- trade DeRozan for 2015 top-10 pick
- trade Lowry for 2015 top-10 pick
- tank to move 2016 pick into the lottery (pray for luck with the ping pong balls)
- hope Denver & NYK are lottery teams, since Toronto gets the worse of their 2016 1st round picks
- huge cap space in 2015 and/or 2016

The Raptors could quite possibly add the following to the roster, after just 1 step-back season:
- 4 lottery picks
- 1 #20 pick
- 1 max player

A core of JV, 4 lottery picks, another 1st round pick and 1 max player. That's 7 young, talented players that could grow together and develop chemistry over the next 4-8 seasons. Add a couple savvy veterans to mentor them, and I can't see how that roster wouldn't be looking far better than the current one, even if all the picks don't wind up panning out. Of course, a new head coach is also needed, who can focus on player development and installing a team-oriented offensive system.

The Raptors could also use a combination of draft picks and other assets (ie: Patterson, Ross, Bruno) to go in another direction:
- bundle assets to move up in 2015 and/or 2016 draft
- make a Houston-esque trade for a potential superstar player

There are so many avenues available to rebuild this team relatively quickly, loaded with young talent for sustainable long-term success, by unloading DeRozan & Lowry at peak value.

Obviously there is risk involved, but scouting and drafting are supposedly MU's greatest strengths, so it's all about trusting him. I think the potential rewards outweigh the risks, especially when the current roster with the DeRozan/Lowry core seems to have 1st round fodder (maybe 2nd round fodder) as its ceiling.

[Bandit]

Who says that's the squad of the future?? That's the squad for next year.... Did you miss the re-evaluate part? Fans seem to be on some unrealistic championship or bust mentality. It's ok to enjoy the process you know!!

The loser mentality I hear about makes sense as its coming from fans of a team who hasn't even made it out of the second round..... We've made the playoffs what 7 times in our history?? How about we make our goals a bit more realistic?

This franchise hasn't done fuck all and all we read about is contender or blow it up talk. We call our players crap (myself included) and then we want to trade this crap for young talent/high draft picks. It's comical to read at times.

The grass is always greener on the other side. Nobody wants to stay the course. DD, JV and Ross were all top 10 picks and none of them are in their prime. Players get destroyed by unrealistic expectations (Seen it happen to AB, Happening to DD, Ross, JV and now Bruno). I'm guilty of this as well.

This team was good enough to compete....that's it. Demar got injured and you saw the drop off. Lowry fell off from all-star status to scrub and you saw the result against a good Washington team with "IT". The team needed help (or IT) but never received the necessary moves because we were still evaluating. Then for some reason this fanbase, one year removed from making the playoffs for the first time in years - starts comparingTHIS team to contenders.......How crazy is that!?

I predict that if we choose to rebuild we'll be stuck in a horrible cycle. This will happen again as fans are unrealistic. 2-3 years after rebuilding, fans are going to want to see results. If we don't have the next Lebron/Superstar, and we're winning too much, we'll want to start another rebuild. If we're horrible (and there's a good chance we will be).....fire coach, fire GM, etc. Joke of a franchise.

I've said this many times... I never believed this team would be the final product for a contender. I still believe that they have some good pieces. People forget that DD, Ross, JV (even Bruno) got a taste of the playoffs. They know what they need to work on.... How hard it is to win. This is still development. We got swept but they learned something.....what better way to develop talent than actually have them in the playoffs? Add to the chosen core and move forward.

Edit: One more thing.

Everyone agrees that there are many ways to build a team. Yet most only advocate for the tank method and dismiss other options. I say add to the core and people look at me all dumbfounded. How is it possible without tanking?......But but cap space......no free agent will sign here.....blah blah blah. I guess that's why we're not GMs.

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Bold #1: I'm really glad you brought this up. Because this is actually the part of the whole thing I'm missing right now with this team. I do no enjoy this process, I do not enjoy the brand of basketball, and I no longer feel attached to them as a "fan". (meaning of course I'm still a fan of the raptors but I would happily trade anyone on this team for a change) What I would enjoy is watching the team try again from step 1. Find a core of young talent I can attach to as a fan. Watch them develop, watch them take the bumps and bruises to become something special in this league. That's a process I can enjoy.

Bold #2: To me, that's the loser mentality, the belief that we need to make goals more realistic. The goal to build a team over the next 5 years with the hope of winning a championship should be exactly what MU is thinking right now. Anything less and he has already lost. The beautiful thing about sports is that the history means jack shit as soon as that ball is on the court. Everyone has a chance to win it all depending on the decisions they make. Look at Minny and Milwaukee. Not exactly decorated histories but both teams could be on the verge of something special.

Bold #3: Interesting point to bring up. IMO, players aren't destroyed by unrealistic expectations. Those expectations exist everywhere they don't have a superstar. Those places need for each and every pick to become something special. What breaks players has nothing to do with us, it is entirely on them, their coaches and their trainers. AB simply wasn't very good and given too much to do. DD is simply not Kobe and asked to play like him. Tross is missing a mental toughness. Lowry doesn't get along very well with authority.

Did clevelands expectations for Lebron to win championships as a rookie break him? He seems to be on a pretty good career trajectory despite that.

Bold #4: Contending teams are the teams you need to end up beating. Everyone needs to be held against those standards. Is it fair? Not really. Is it necessary? Absolutely.

Bold #5: I think this is what hold most people away from a rebuild. That fear of doing what the raps have done before. They tried to build around AB, Bosh, DD... none of whom should have been built around. When we had Carter and Tmac on the squad we should have gone all in and tried to build around that. That's the difference. If it takes a year or two or 4 to make that happen then so be it.

Bold #6: Knowing what you need to work on and being able to work on it are two entirely different things. I don't believe we have the right culture to expect a team as old as they are to improve enough to make a difference.

Bold #7: I don't think people look at you dumbfounded because they don't understand the other methods. What if it's because they think you see a core in JV/DD/Lowry. I would look at you like that. They aren't a core on any team anywhere. Not unless your role players are gonna be Lebron and Anthony Davis.

[special1]

Rebuild ... What does it really mean ??

Bold #1: I'm really glad you brought this up. Because this is actually the part of the whole thing I'm missing right now with this team. I do no enjoy this process, I do not enjoy the brand of basketball, and I no longer feel attached to them as a "fan". (meaning of course I'm still a fan of the raptors but I would happily trade anyone on this team for a change) What I would enjoy is watching the team try again from step 1. Find a core of young talent I can attach to as a fan. Watch them develop, watch them take the bumps and bruises to become something special in this league. That's a process I can enjoy.

Bold #2: To me, that's the loser mentality, the belief that we need to make goals more realistic. The goal to build a team over the next 5 years with the hope of winning a championship should be exactly what MU is thinking right now. Anything less and he has already lost. The beautiful thing about sports is that the history means jack shit as soon as that ball is on the court. Everyone has a chance to win it all depending on the decisions they make. Look at Minny and Milwaukee. Not exactly decorated histories but both teams could be on the verge of something special.

Bold #3: Interesting point to bring up. IMO, players aren't destroyed by unrealistic expectations. Those expectations exist everywhere they don't have a superstar. Those places need for each and every pick to become something special. What breaks players has nothing to do with us, it is entirely on them, their coaches and their trainers. AB simply wasn't very good and given too much to do. DD is simply not Kobe and asked to play like him. Tross is missing a mental toughness. Lowry doesn't get along very well with authority.

Did clevelands expectations for Lebron to win championships as a rookie break him? He seems to be on a pretty good career trajectory despite that.

Bold #4: Contending teams are the teams you need to end up beating. Everyone needs to be held against those standards. Is it fair? Not really. Is it necessary? Absolutely.

Bold #5: I think this is what hold most people away from a rebuild. That fear of doing what the raps have done before. They tried to build around AB, Bosh, DD... none of whom should have been built around. When we had Carter and Tmac on the squad we should have gone all in and tried to build around that. That's the difference. If it takes a year or two or 4 to make that happen then so be it.

Bold #6: Knowing what you need to work on and being able to work on it are two entirely different things. I don't believe we have the right culture to expect a team as old as they are to improve enough to make a difference.

Bold #7: I don't think people look at you dumbfounded because they don't understand the other methods. What if it's because they think you see a core in JV/DD/Lowry. I would look at you like that. They aren't a core on any team anywhere. Not unless your role players are gonna be Lebron and Anthony Davis.

Thanks for the reply. Some really good points in there.

Regarding the DD/JV/Lowry core......

I don't see Lowry as part of the core at all. His age compared to the other guys make him a good signing to prove that we can retain players. He's in his prime....dunno how much longer he'll be able to keep up the pace - perhaps the second half and playoffs foreshadowed the future for him. We have to capitalize on his recent all-star success and bargain contract.

My core is DD and JV. We have a 25 year old all star calibre player already here in DD. Hopefully, with an increased role, JV can make the jump to an all-star player as well.

Those two surrounded with better players (good defensive/rebounding PF, a past first - defensive PG and a very good consistent SF) could make some noise. I would keep PPat as a reserve so maybe he can be added to the core as well.


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[slaw]

Apparently there is nothing wrong with being what the Cavs or Knicks were to the Bulls.

I disagree but that appears to be the general consensus among the group - being a speed bump in the playoffs is admirable.

In the 16 years post-Jordan, 6 teams have won titles. 13 of them have been won by three teams. The Celtics put together a team with 3 hall of fame players in their primes and won exactly one title.

Spare me the "championship or bust" nonsense.

[Axel]

In the 16 years post-Jordan, 6 teams have won titles. 13 of them have been won by three teams. The Celtics put together a team with 3 hall of fame players in their primes and won exactly one title.

Spare me the "championship or bust" nonsense.

Wouldn't exactly call the Celtics KG as the prime KG.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Thanks for the reply. Some really good points in there.

Regarding the DD/JV/Lowry core......

I don't see Lowry as part of the core at all. His age compared to the other guys make him a good signing to prove that we can retain players. He's in his prime....dunno how much longer he'll be able to keep up the pace - perhaps the second half and playoffs foreshadowed the future for him. We have to capitalize on his recent all-star success and bargain contract.

My core is DD and JV. We have a 25 year old all star calibre player already here in DD. Hopefully, with an increased role, JV can make the jump to an all-star player as well.

Those two surrounded with better players (good defensive/rebounding PF, a past first - defensive PG and a very good consistent SF) could make some noise. I would keep PPat as a reserve so maybe he can be added to the core as well.


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I totally agree with Lowry.

As for DeRozan, I think there are 2 reasons why so many posters are hesitant to include him as part of their definitive core moving forward:

1. Is he an inefficient chucker by nature, or is a victim of DC's unimaginative offense?

2. What happens after next season, when he can opt-out of his contract? Leave for nothing? Sign a contract that takes him from being 'good value' to 'albatross'? Hometown discount?


For me, #2 is looming as an even bigger reason for trading him than #1.

Plus, if Lowry is traded, how does that impact DeRozan? Do his numbers suffer, resulting in his trade value plummeting (in combination with his looming opt-out already hurting trade value due to uncertainty and not being controlled by new team)? Does that increase the chances of him opting-out and leaving for nothing?

[Bandit]

In the 16 years post-Jordan, 6 teams have won titles. 13 of them have been won by three teams. The Celtics put together a team with 3 hall of fame players in their primes and won exactly one title.

Spare me the "championship or bust" nonsense.

While I agree we need to be happy by simply being competitve, I do believe that from a team standpoint the only goal needs to be to compete for a championship.

If MU doesn't approach every decision with the thought of how can we win it all in 5 years then he isn't doing his job.