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There has never been a better time to rebuild than right now

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  • There has never been a better time to rebuild than right now

    Why?

    1) Do it by choice or be forced...yet again. Lowry is approaching wrong side of 30 and he has never put it together for a full season. derozan can leave next year for nothing or worse he gets paid the max. 6th man of the year is available to a playoff team in need of scoring punch via sign and trade. Do not forget this is not a young team despite what some say. The youth don't play and the youngest starters are routinely jerked around.

    2) valuable trade pieces. The raptors have guys with value. Kickstart a rebuild with the benefits of multiple losing seasons....without the losing. The subsequent losing that follows is almost assured to be much shorter due to selling high in players in their prime.

    3) For the first time in years there are not many teams actively looking to suck. Philly, Minny, and possibly Denver - that's it. NY, Sacramento, orlando, Detroit, Charlotte, Miami, Indiana, Utah, Phoenix, OKC - all lottery teams all either tired of being in the lottery or looking to put injuries behind them and get back to the playoffs. Boston, brooklyn, Milwaukee, New Orleans all looking to stay in playoffs and in case of milwaukee, New Orleans, and Boston - get better too.

    4) With a DLeague team apparently coming next season, a great opportunity to maximize youth opportunity to play. Teams like Houston and Phoenix have routinely rotated a platoon of players to DLeague. Remember you can only have two players off roster in DLeague at one time but you can have players who you own the rights to.

    5) the salary cap boom and hangover sure to follow. Everyone knows the cap is rising drastically next year and again the following season. Just as everyone rushed to tank for the draft class of 2014, everyone is clearing cap space for 2016. In 2018 (just 3 seasons away) the cap is actually projected to decline. What a great time to capitalize on the teams that spent like drunken sailors that is sure to make a sailor blush. The raptors could be in position to offer multiple max contracts.

    6) capitalizing on the draft. Assuming lowry and DeRozan could return lotto picks, the raps would have 2 lotto picks this year, likely 2 lotto picks next year, plus Bruno, Bebe, and 20 this year. All of those contracts are going to be even bigger bargains in the new cap era.

    7) the hardest position to fill is set for 5 years and he is just 23. Tying in the whole big men take longer to develop, JV is just turned 23 and will enter his prime with a cast of youth. If a better C is found via draft, you have a great trade chip.

    8) someone is in charge who is finally going to exercise patience and keep the foot off the accelerator until it is ready. The raptors were doomed to a low ceiling (which they have now reached) as soon as they accelerated the rebuild due to timing with the expiration of colangelo's contract.



    Making the playoffs is easy - that is what Masai said. I'm not content to just be a speed bump for the contenders. Time to build on a solid foundation.

  • #2
    Honestly could see this happening.

    The only alternative really would be to parlay Lowry into the Knicks pick somehow and get Mudiay or Russell, raising the longevity and ceiling of the team. Then making a signing in free agency who turns out to be a star in a larger role on our team (Tobias Harris maybe?) could actually allow us to "rebuild" without actually sucking and still having a pretty high ceiling.

    Mudiay - 19
    DeRozan - 25
    Harris - 22
    Valanciunas - 23
    Bruno - 19

    Isn't a bad foundation to start a "rebuild" on either. But definitely the trading away Lowry/DD and totally tanking it option is there as well. We'd only be competing with Philly in an out and out tank atm, and if we traded away our backcourt we'd arguably have less talent than them.

    Comment


    • #3
      While the drive to "win now" (or at least "win a little more now") is strong on the part of most fans, moving the needle from 49 wins to 52 or 53 isn't going to be satisfying for very long. Very few teams have the ability to be consistently relevant without lucking into (or being brilliantly managed into) a series of superstars. Toronto is not going to be a top 3-5 free agent destination for a long time, if ever, for all the previously mentioned over the years reasons. And the Raptors are not going to run consistently in the cap penalty range given current and likely future ownership.

      Having said that, they are going to have to be "brilliantly managed" to have any real chance of getting to the finals. And one of the best ways to manage brilliantly is to make excellent and efficient use of the draft. Whether that is trading for picks, or picking gems from the dross in the lower levels of the draft. Acquiring a D-League team shows that they are looking to maximize draft picks and prospects talents and futures. The next step is the actual drafting.

      I will go along with McHappy's (and several others) assertions that this may be the best time in Raptors history to acquire picks and prospects. They have trade-able pieces that could have value for other teams looking to improve now. Many teams may look at the the upcoming cap increase as an opportunity to add some high paid help, believing that that would be enough to push them over the hump. They may be willing to trade their future for success now. The Raps should consider taking advantage when and where possible.

      One of the things I want to see is entertaining basketball. Players that go hard, coaches that coach intelligently, and a team that has a shot at success on any given night. I realize that an NBA Championship is a long ways away for all but 3-4 NBA teams. Two steps forward and one step back is an acceptable pace. The Raps have improved over the last three years. Whether through luck or management is tough to say. But they are certainly positioned to help their future prospects by accumulating picks, while they slide back a little in actual results. Making 2017 to 2018 the seasons for relevance is acceptable to me as a fan if I see that there is a plan for longer term improvement. And preferable to a couple more years of wins in the 46 - 51 range before a decline sets in.

      Comment


      • #4
        One additional point: rookie scale contracts, as defined in the current CBA, are good value deals. Under the new 89 and then 108M caps, they will be amazing value deals. For example, the top pick makes 5M or so. Under the 89M cap, you could have 4 top 5 picks signed for under 20M, plus a guy like JV on a 16M deal, and have about 50M in cap room, enough for two max players at 25M each (7-9 year vets).

        In 2017, the CBA will be renegotiated, and the rookie scale may change and be adjusted up to match the new cap levels. So these super value deals will be signed this summer off the 2015 draft and next summer after the 2016 draft. In other words, high end draft picks (and low end, actually) this year and next will be the highest value pieces to ever exist in the NBA. The same might not be able to be said about top picks in 2017 and later. Plus the 2017 draft might be hurt by lockout shyness.

        The time is now - this draft and next.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

        Comment


        • #5
          JWash wrote: View Post
          Honestly could see this happening.

          The only alternative really would be to parlay Lowry into the Knicks pick somehow and get Mudiay or Russell, raising the longevity and ceiling of the team. Then making a signing in free agency who turns out to be a star in a larger role on our team (Tobias Harris maybe?) could actually allow us to "rebuild" without actually sucking and still having a pretty high ceiling.

          Mudiay - 19
          DeRozan - 25
          Harris - 22
          Valanciunas - 23
          Bruno - 19

          Isn't a bad foundation to start a "rebuild" on either. But definitely the trading away Lowry/DD and totally tanking it option is there as well. We'd only be competing with Philly in an out and out tank atm, and if we traded away our backcourt we'd arguably have less talent than them.
          This is definitely not bad. Could we keep DD in the 2016 ? Could we get another star in 2016 with increased Cap ?
          If the answer to both questions is YES, then this is a very good option.

          Comment


          • #6
            DanH wrote: View Post
            One additional point: rookie scale contracts, as defined in the current CBA, are good value deals....
            I wasn't sure how the rookie salaries would be handled and this is the first time I have seen it explained exactly like this. You are right Dan. Having some top rookies signed over the next two years is going to be HUGE. I think this is enough to make me think this is the time to trade both Lowry and DeMar. I have wanted to hang on to DeMar for sentimental reasons, but having a couple of top 5 rookies signed at $4-5 million for 4 years when the cap is at $90 million? Gotta say sign me up for that.

            Comment


            • #7
              Puffer wrote: View Post
              I wasn't sure how the rookie salaries would be handled and this is the first time I have seen it explained exactly like this. You are right Dan. Having some top rookies signed over the next two years is going to be HUGE. I think this is enough to make me think this is the time to trade both Lowry and DeMar. I have wanted to hang on to DeMar for sentimental reasons, but having a couple of top 5 rookies signed at $4-5 million for 4 years when the cap is at $90 million? Gotta say sign me up for that.
              This is also why I am trying really hard to propose trades that acquire picks, not trade up to get them. Because those 20th picks, etc, could end up close to the minimum salary under the potential new structure. The more guys we have on rookie scale deals from 2015 and 2016 the better.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

              Comment


              • #8
                DanH wrote: View Post
                One additional point: rookie scale contracts, as defined in the current CBA, are good value deals. Under the new 89 and then 108M caps, they will be amazing value deals. For example, the top pick makes 5M or so. Under the 89M cap, you could have 4 top 5 picks signed for under 20M, plus a guy like JV on a 16M deal, and have about 50M in cap room, enough for two max players at 25M each (7-9 year vets).

                In 2017, the CBA will be renegotiated, and the rookie scale may change and be adjusted up to match the new cap levels. So these super value deals will be signed this summer off the 2015 draft and next summer after the 2016 draft. In other words, high end draft picks (and low end, actually) this year and next will be the highest value pieces to ever exist in the NBA. The same might not be able to be said about top picks in 2017 and later. Plus the 2017 draft might be hurt by lockout shyness.

                The time is now - this draft and next.
                Thanks for spelling that out. I alluded to it but not near the detail. Only so much one can do waiting for a Doctors appt. lol

                Comment


                • #9
                  I posted this in the other rebuilding thread, but applies even moreso to this one...

                  The stars really are potentially aligning for a 1-year rebuild (tank):
                  - 2015 #20 pick
                  - trade DeRozan for 2015 top-10 pick
                  - trade Lowry for 2015 top-10 pick
                  - tank to move 2016 pick into the lottery (pray for luck with the ping pong balls)
                  - hope Denver & NYK are lottery teams, since Toronto gets the worse of their 2016 1st round picks
                  - huge cap space in 2015 and/or 2016

                  The Raptors could quite possibly add the following to the roster, after just 1 step-back season:
                  - 4 lottery picks
                  - 1 #20 pick
                  - 1 max player

                  A core of JV, 4 lottery picks, another 1st round pick and 1 max player. That's 7 young, talented players that could grow together and develop chemistry over the next 4-8 seasons. Add a couple savvy veterans to mentor them, and I can't see how that roster wouldn't be looking far better than the current one, even if all the picks don't wind up panning out. Of course, a new head coach is also needed, who can focus on player development and installing a team-oriented offensive system.

                  The Raptors could also use a combination of draft picks and other assets (ie: Patterson, Ross, Bruno) to go in another direction:
                  - bundle assets to move up in 2015 and/or 2016 draft
                  - make a Houston-esque trade for a potential superstar player

                  There are so many avenues available to rebuild this team relatively quickly, loaded with young talent for sustainable long-term success, by unloading DeRozan & Lowry at peak value.

                  Obviously there is risk involved, but scouting and drafting are supposedly MU's greatest strengths, so it's all about trusting him. I think the potential rewards outweigh the risks, especially when the current roster with the DeRozan/Lowry core seems to have 1st round fodder (maybe 2nd round fodder) as its ceiling.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                    I posted this in the other rebuilding thread, but applies even moreso to this one...

                    The stars really are potentially aligning for a 1-year rebuild (tank):
                    - 2015 #20 pick
                    - trade DeRozan for 2015 top-10 pick
                    - trade Lowry for 2015 top-10 pick
                    - tank to move 2016 pick into the lottery (pray for luck with the ping pong balls)
                    - hope Denver & NYK are lottery teams, since Toronto gets the worse of their 2016 1st round picks
                    - huge cap space in 2015 and/or 2016

                    The Raptors could quite possibly add the following to the roster, after just 1 step-back season:
                    - 4 lottery picks
                    - 1 #20 pick
                    - 1 max player

                    A core of JV, 4 lottery picks, another 1st round pick and 1 max player. That's 7 young, talented players that could grow together and develop chemistry over the next 4-8 seasons. Add a couple savvy veterans to mentor them, and I can't see how that roster wouldn't be looking far better than the current one, even if all the picks don't wind up panning out. Of course, a new head coach is also needed, who can focus on player development and installing a team-oriented offensive system.

                    The Raptors could also use a combination of draft picks and other assets (ie: Patterson, Ross, Bruno) to go in another direction:
                    - bundle assets to move up in 2015 and/or 2016 draft
                    - make a Houston-esque trade for a potential superstar player

                    There are so many avenues available to rebuild this team relatively quickly, loaded with young talent for sustainable long-term success, by unloading DeRozan & Lowry at peak value.

                    Obviously there is risk involved, but scouting and drafting are supposedly MU's greatest strengths, so it's all about trusting him. I think the potential rewards outweigh the risks, especially when the current roster with the DeRozan/Lowry core seems to have 1st round fodder (maybe 2nd round fodder) as its ceiling.
                    Just means I got to like it twice!
                    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Raptors fans favourite words(in this forum anyway) - REBUILD/TANK.

                      Sigh.
                      Mamba Mentality

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I feel like you guys say every year is the perfect year to rebuild...
                        I'm back. I no longer worship joe johnson

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
                          I feel like you guys say every year is the perfect year to rebuild...
                          No time like the present, and since we have kept this same core for a few years now, you're probably right.
                          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            TRex wrote: View Post
                            Raptors fans favourite words(in this forum anyway) - REBUILD/TANK.

                            Sigh.
                            I agree it's depressing that we have to go that route, but it's the only route left to us to get closer to a title. The whole "just put two new really good players next to Derozan and Lowry" idea is pure fantasy, can't be done without dealing those guys, which brings us back to rebuilding.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
                              I feel like you guys say every year is the perfect year to rebuild...
                              Well, I said the year after we acquired Rudy was great timing, as he and DD played well together and raised their values. Then when Gay was traded too late (in-season) the opportunity was worse, but there was still a chance. Last summer was NOT an opportunity to tank (though if Lowry had gone elsewhere might was well have). Now that we have a chance to move two valuable pieces, the opportunity is there again, especially considering the reported lack of enthusiasm of teams in the mid-lotto.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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