We will miss the playoffs next year if significant changes are not made

[OldSkoolCool]

One thing is for sure though, letting Lou Williams walk will be addition by subtraction.

If we lose Lou we lose another 15 games in the W column.

One of the reasons for our oncredibke starts that few people mention is how broken the system was to start the year...yet despite that Lou was so hot that he won every second game by going off.

I hate Lou but I got to give him props for winning quite a few for us at the beginning of the year

[Primer]

Some funky things happen when you extrapolate using an arbitrary cutoff date and counting zero moves and reasoning. These are expected win totals based solely on the team records after the All Star break. Now this isn't proof of anything and it's pretty likely a pointless thing to do, but I do think that the Raptors winning as few as 37 games is about as likely as Boston winning 53 and Brooklyn winning 46.

2015-16
1 Cleveland 61 wins
2 Boston 53 wins
3 Atlanta 50 wins
4 Chicago 47 wins
5 Indiana 47 wins
6 Brooklyn 46 wins
7 Miami 41 wins
8 Washington 38 wins
9 Toronto 37 wins
10 Detroit 32 wins
11 Milwaukee 31 wins
12 Charlotte 30 wins
13 Orlando 25 wins
14 Knicks 20 wins
15 Philly 17 wins

Washington winning 38 is also not gonna happen.

If we used that logic for this season (considering our very strong finish in 2013-14) then we should have been a much better team than we ended up being. A half a season sample size is not a very good predictor of future success.

[Mess]

I dunno. Counting zero moves, I think there's a very strong possibility of missing the playoffs. Based on what we saw after the all-star break, I would think there's at least a handful of people including myself who expects to miss the playoffs. That's my expectation, based on what we did -- 13-16 after the break and then in 0-4 in the playoffs. So this means we had a 39.4 winning percentage over the last 33 games including playoffs. Extrapolate that over 82 games and you have 32 wins. That would have put us in a tie for 12th in the East.

A season like that would do a number of things for us. First it would probably reveal a lot of weaknesses that might not be evident after a 49-win season. This includes coaching, player and roster weaknesses/flaws. Second, it would result a significantly better draft pick. Third, making the playoffs gives upper management a false sense that the team is "good enough". We simply are not good enough, and missing the playoffs (and loss revenue) will throw a big magnifying glass on the team.

Some funky things happen when you extrapolate using an arbitrary cutoff date and counting zero moves and reasoning. These are expected win totals based solely on the team records after the All Star break. Now this isn't proof of anything and it's pretty likely a pointless thing to do, but I do think that the Raptors winning as few as 37 games is about as likely as Boston winning 53 and Brooklyn winning 46.

2015-16
1 Cleveland 61 wins
2 Boston 53 wins
3 Atlanta 50 wins
4 Chicago 47 wins
5 Indiana 47 wins
6 Brooklyn 46 wins
7 Miami 41 wins
8 Washington 38 wins
9 Toronto 37 wins
10 Detroit 32 wins
11 Milwaukee 31 wins
12 Charlotte 30 wins
13 Orlando 25 wins
14 Knicks 20 wins
15 Philly 17 wins

[Primer]

It's just that Lou doesn't fit with this team, him and Vasquez together is like Turkoglu and Calderon together, or Curry and Randolph together it just won't work.

Scary part is Lou won us a lot of games during the season. Games we had no business winning except Lou went nuclear and couldn't miss anything. Lou was the classic boom or bust player, and he was going to take a ton of shots regardless what kind of night he was having.

[Primer]

It's just that Lou doesn't fit with this team, him and Vasquez together is like Turkoglu and Calderon together, or Curry and Randolph together it just won't work.

Scary part is Lou won us a lot of games during the season. Games we had no business winning except Lou went nuclear and couldn't miss anything. Lou was the classic boom or bust player, and he was going to take a ton of shots regardless what kind of night he was having.

[peanutwoozle]

That's the thing; I like Lou (and he absolutely can be a valuable piece). I just don't like Lou with Casey.

It's just that Lou doesn't fit with this team, him and Vasquez together is like Turkoglu and Calderon together, or Curry and Randolph together it just won't work.

[Just Is]

One thing is for sure though, letting Lou Williams walk will be addition by subtraction.

That's the thing; I like Lou (and he absolutely can be a valuable piece). I just don't like Lou with Casey.

[peanutwoozle]

One thing is for sure though, letting Lou Williams walk will be addition by subtraction.

[ebrian]

it would be a lost year in the timeline.

Might as well start the rebuild now and not chance it.

I agree it would be ideal to start now, but I think it may be unlikely.

[ebrian]

I dunno. Counting zero moves, I think there's a very strong possibility of missing the playoffs. Based on what we saw after the all-star break, I would think there's at least a handful of people including myself who expects to miss the playoffs. That's my expectation, based on what we did -- 13-16 after the break and then in 0-4 in the playoffs. So this means we had a 39.4 winning percentage over the last 33 games including playoffs. Extrapolate that over 82 games and you have 32 wins. That would have put us in a tie for 12th in the East.

A season like that would do a number of things for us. First it would probably reveal a lot of weaknesses that might not be evident after a 49-win season. This includes coaching, player and roster weaknesses/flaws. Second, it would result a significantly better draft pick. Third, making the playoffs gives upper management a false sense that the team is "good enough". We simply are not good enough, and missing the playoffs (and loss revenue) will throw a big magnifying glass on the team.

[Bear]

It'd force Masai to actually make a big move (staff, core players), so no. It wouldn't be so bad.

it would be a lost year in the timeline.

Might as well start the rebuild now and not chance it.

[tDotted]

Would it be so bad if we missed the playoffs?

It'd force Masai to actually make a big move (staff, core players), so no. It wouldn't be so bad.

[Primer]

Would it be so bad if we missed the playoffs?

If we keep the same core and miss the playoffs, that's pretty fucking bad (but does guarantee Casey getting fired). If we make a bunch of roster moves to get younger, then it would not be so bad, and might even be expected.

[ebrian]

Would it be so bad if we missed the playoffs?

[Just Is]

A lot has to do with the teams offense so heavily favoring iso instead of ball movement. Demar had a better FG% from every single part of the court in 2013-14 compared to 2014-15. So when looking for the cause of the decline, I can't help but blame the drop in %Ast'd of his shot attempts (.465 in 13-14 to .417 in 14-15). There is a pretty strong correlation between Demar's %Ast'd going down and his FG% going down. Unfortunately, scoring off assists seemed to be actively discouraged by Casey, or at best, actively ignored by him.

Which is another one of the reasons I wasn't a fan of Casey returning.