Poeltl & Pascal - The 2016 Draft

[Hotshot]

Dunc'd on did a re-draft for 2016. Yak basically held his ground. Sabonis flopped. Siakam was reviewed well.

A bit early to do a re-draft, Usually it takes 3-4 seasons in order to determine which players were the real deal.

[SkywalkerAC]

Dunc'd on did a re-draft for 2016. Yak basically held his ground. Sabonis flopped. Siakam was reviewed well.

Hasn't Sabonis looked ok for a rookie? He's starting for a decent team.

In any case, I'm very happy with how Poeltl is progressing.

[JamesNaismith]

Personally, I'd like the Raptors to go in this direction:

1) Dump Carroll in the offseason
2) Resign Lowry, Ibaka, Tucker and Pat
3) Draft a backup 3.

That seems like the most likely desired result lol

I think who's going to be "dumped" though will be Corey and Val. Teams don't look to absorb players contracts that don't bring any value to them as Carroll doesn't.

But I could easily see us trading CoJo to say PHI, ORL, MIN etc for a couple of 2nd rdrs so they inch closer to the Playoffs that their franchise and fanbase are desperate to get back to and we off load salary to help retain those 3. Then maybe we try to see if some other cusp Playoff team will bite at Val + 1st to move up in a draft and the result is shedding 20+M in salary or alternatively use JV + 1st to be able to bring in that other "star" via trade since we won't be able to sign a big FA.

Then we'd have a couple of 2nd rdrs to grab whatever back up 3 like Ojelye, Jackson or Blossomgame and you either have higher potential draft pick to develop for the future or that 4th "star" to really contend. I don't think we're shedding Carroll unless we can somehow convince BKN that he actually will help them win games lol

[lewro]

A bit early to do a re-draft, Usually it takes 3-4 seasons in order to determine which players were the real deal.

Yes, I think it's just early returns. Most of the guys will be out of the league in a few yrs so not many names to speak of but youre right that you could make a definitive assessment at that point. Simmons hasn't even played yet, for example. It's more for fun and fill content before the playoffs. I posted here bc some were discussing Skal vs yak.

[lewro]

Hasn't Sabonis looked ok for a rookie? He's starting for a decent team.

In any case, I'm very happy with how Poeltl is progressing.

I get an impression that he looked better to start the yr and has faded. His stats don't pop. I've only watched him vs raps. I believe he is starting but im a surprised considering that they traded for taj.

[Hotshot]

Yes, I think it's just early returns. Most of the guys will be out of the league in a few yrs so not many names to speak of but youre right that you could make a definitive assessment at that point. Simmons hasn't even played yet, for example. It's more for fun and fill content before the playoffs. I posted here bc some were discussing Skal vs yak.

Skal vs Yak will be interesting to see for a few years, Yak was the safe pick and Skal was the risky pick with the higher reward. We could have made a big mistake or we did the right thing. Only time will tell (or another player will emerge from between).

Simmons hasn't played yet but he showed enough in summer league that he got game and looked to be deserved of the number 1 selection.

[DanH]

That seems like the most likely desired result lol

I think who's going to be "dumped" though will be Corey and Val. Teams don't look to absorb players contracts that don't bring any value to them as Carroll doesn't.

But I could easily see us trading CoJo to say PHI, ORL, MIN etc for a couple of 2nd rdrs so they inch closer to the Playoffs that their franchise and fanbase are desperate to get back to and we off load salary to help retain those 3. Then maybe we try to see if some other cusp Playoff team will bite at Val + 1st to move up in a draft and the result is shedding 20+M in salary or alternatively use JV + 1st to be able to bring in that other "star" via trade since we won't be able to sign a big FA.

Then we'd have a couple of 2nd rdrs to grab whatever back up 3 like Ojelye, Jackson or Blossomgame and you either have higher potential draft pick to develop for the future or that 4th "star" to really contend. I don't think we're shedding Carroll unless we can somehow convince BKN that he actually will help them win games lol

If you are going all in on cost (and assume the financial impact of shedding JV versus Carroll is the same), you should be keeping the best players. I don't think Carroll qualifies for that. So, even if you have to pay an asset cost to move Carroll, you do so, instead of moving JV for (presumably poor) value. If you are going to go all in, you go all in.

So, yeah, you move Cory for a small asset return, then move Carroll along with that asset return and maybe an additional asset (like Siakam, or our remaining 2017 first), and you spend to bring back all 4 free agents. In theory, you are buying into at least 3-4 years of the Lowry-DeRozan-Ibaka big three, and you want to surround them with as much talent and flexibility as possible. If it all falls apart, you want to keep your futures, but guys being drafted now are unlikely to help much in those next few years, and you'll have the drafts for those years to be able to re-stock the cupboards. It's not like the Raps aren't asset-rich anyway - they are currently at 7 guys on rookie or rookie scale deals, and none of them are hitting FA this summer.

[lewro]

I think things are highly fluid right now in terms of the summer and masai has said as much. First, evaluate performance (season is not over/playoffs carry more weight), then draft potential, then trade and FA market. Making a predetermination right now is based in bias.
We are very deep at center. If we only use JV as a rebounder and screener then that is highly replaceable for much less money. But, as has been the year long rebuttal, he might kill it in the playoffs. So it's wait and see. After that, test the market, depending on his performance. We shouldnt shoot JV out of a canon but we shouldn't swaddle him in bubble wrap all friggin yr either.
In terms of Carroll, yes he is probably the weakest link but I hate to lose an asset (and what asset is it?) and we are thinner at that position and it's very hard to replace a 3&d wing. If hes unplayable in the playoffs then we probably have to bite the bullet but I'd still like to know which bullet before biting.
In terms of futures, I'm not interested in building a team around JV in the modern NBA bc he can't defend a crucial position. It's not just that he has cement feet; his mind churns like a hamster wheel. He has a role but the future is grim if he is the focus imo.

[KHD]

I think things are highly fluid right now in terms of the summer and masai has said as much. First, evaluate performance (season is not over/playoffs carry more weight), then draft potential, then trade and FA market. Making a predetermination right now is based in bias.
We are very deep at center. If we only use JV as a rebounder and screener then that is highly replaceable for much less money. But, as has been the year long rebuttal, he might kill it in the playoffs. So it's wait and see. After that, test the market, depending on his performance. We shouldnt shoot JV out of a canon but we shouldn't swaddle him in bubble wrap all friggin yr either.
In terms of Carroll, yes he is probably the weakest link but I hate to lose an asset (and what asset is it?) and we are thinner at that position and it's very hard to replace a 3&d wing. If hes unplayable in the playoffs then we probably have to bite the bullet but I'd still like to know which bullet before biting.
In terms of futures, I'm not interested in building a team around JV in the modern NBA bc he can't defend a crucial position. It's not just that he has cement feet; his mind churns like a hamster wheel. He has a role but the future is grim if he is the focus imo.

The future is grim if we have to rebuild around any one individual on this roster. Doesn't mean you shouldn't try to keep JV over carroll if you can (assuming you've gone and done the work to be able to keep Tucker).

[lewro]

The future is grim if we have to rebuild around any one individual on this roster. Doesn't mean you shouldn't try to keep JV over carroll if you can (assuming you've gone and done the work to be able to keep Tucker).

I'd say middle of the pack with DeMar. We'd be the bulls with Butler. Swap JV with gasol and the Grizz plummet. Thats purely hypothetical and argumentative. Just my opinion. It's mediocre vs grim but you're right, I'd be disappointed with either but there is at least one rung difference imo.
I agree with Tucker. He potentially changes my opinion of Pat and dmc's role/future. 3pt shooting is a concern but those two guys have been feast or famine. PJ has been steady and the drop off isn't immense in % but they both hit twice as many per game. Surprised to see that Pat is up to 37%, considering his horrendous start. His price goes up a lot imo if he continues to trend upwards in the playoffs. North of $15m gives me pause. Thats more money and yrs than JV and DMC and we have to pay Ibaka $25m to be a better version of pat. Tucker is more versatile, better rebounder and a better defender. Plus his mental game has galvanized our D. And he's likely cheaper.
In a vacuum, DMC clearly has to go but we're not in a vacuum.
I think this convo needs its own thread. Everything 2017 offseason? Seems to bleed into many other threads.

[KHD]

I'd say middle of the pack with DeMar. We'd be the bulls with Butler. Swap JV with gasol and the Grizz plummet. Thats purely hypothetical and argumentative. Just my opinion. It's mediocre vs grim but you're right, I'd be disappointed with either but there is at least one rung difference imo.
I agree with Tucker. He potentially changes my opinion of Pat and dmc's role/future. 3pt shooting is a concern but those two guys have been feast or famine. PJ has been steady and the drop off isn't immense in % but they both hit twice as many per game. Surprised to see that Pat is up to 37%, considering his horrendous start. His price goes up a lot imo if he continues to trend upwards in the playoffs. North of $15m gives me pause. Thats more money and yrs than JV and DMC and we have to pay Ibaka $25m to be a better version of pat. Tucker is more versatile, better rebounder and a better defender. Plus his mental game has galvanized our D. And he's likely cheaper.
In a vacuum, DMC clearly has to go but we're not in a vacuum.
I think this convo needs its own thread. Everything 2017 offseason? Seems to bleed into many other threads.

yeah mediocre is equivalent to grim from where we're standing at the moment. to me, at least. but fair enough.


Ryan Anderson got 20M with no defence. If patterson shows up in the playoffs he's going to cost big $$ i fear.

Tucker isn't the threat that carroll and patterson are but he is a far better defender than Carroll (who seems permanently crocked) and at least to my eye even a better rebounder than Patterson (who is really just bad at it).

Lowry's injury is making it hard to evaluate much, though. The offensive firepower of Lowry/Demar/Ibaka/JV could really be overwhelming, and with Tucker over carroll the current starters are reasonable on defence, and the small-ball lineups have been excellent with Tucker at either the 3 or the 4. but all these sample sizes are tiny.

Hopefully we'll get to see some of the Lowry/Demar/Tucker/Ibaka/JV lineup before the summer. Nagging feeling that Kyle isn't going to be back in time...

[Chr1s1anL]

If were going to use JV as a screen setter and rebounder than I'd rather Yak long term. Just for the fact he is a superior defender as rookie.

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[DanH]

If were going to use JV as a screen setter and rebounder than I'd rather Yak long term. Just for the fact he is a superior defender as rookie.

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And a significantly worse screen setter and rebounder? Not sure I follow that logic. I mean, if you DON'T want rebounding from your C, sure, Poeltl is the way to go. But he'd have to improve leaps and bounds to even approach rookie JV's rebounding rates, particularly defensively.

He's earned the backup C spot. If he can grow his game over the next few years, ideally he could step in and start if JV ends up too pricey once his extension runs out. But it would be a heck of a risk to put him in the starting role next season if you are going all in with Lowry and Ibaka (and presumably at least one of Tucker and Pat).

[Chr1s1anL]

And a significantly worse screen setter and rebounder? Not sure I follow that logic. I mean, if you DON'T want rebounding from your C, sure, Poeltl is the way to go. But he'd have to improve leaps and bounds to even approach rookie JV's rebounding rates, particularly defensively.

He's earned the backup C spot. If he can grow his game over the next few years, ideally he could step in and start if JV ends up too pricey once his extension runs out. But it would be a heck of a risk to put him in the starting role next season if you are going all in with Lowry and Ibaka (and presumably at least one of Tucker and Pat).

Rebound by committe. It's what the closing linuep has been doing with Ibaka at C. It's been very succesful. That lineup is having no issues rebounding. Also I do expect Yak to get better at rebounding. Once he gets stronger he will be fine.

Also all the guys(Lowry, Deebo, DMC and PJ) around him expect for Ibaka(average) are all above average rebounders for thier position.

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[lewro]

yeah mediocre is equivalent to grim from where we're standing at the moment. to me, at least. but fair enough.


Ryan Anderson got 20M with no defence. If patterson shows up in the playoffs he's going to cost big $$ i fear.

Tucker isn't the threat that carroll and patterson are but he is a far better defender than Carroll (who seems permanently crocked) and at least to my eye even a better rebounder than Patterson (who is really just bad at it).

Lowry's injury is making it hard to evaluate much, though. The offensive firepower of Lowry/Demar/Ibaka/JV could really be overwhelming, and with Tucker over carroll the current starters are reasonable on defence, and the small-ball lineups have been excellent with Tucker at either the 3 or the 4. but all these sample sizes are tiny.

Hopefully we'll get to see some of the Lowry/Demar/Tucker/Ibaka/JV lineup before the summer. Nagging feeling that Kyle isn't going to be back in time...

Mediocre to start but you're building from that point. You're probably never gonna be good but there are teams like Orlando that I'd imagine would be very happy to swap DeMar for vuc.
Totally agree re Lowry. This is part of the reason why I think things are fluid and I'm not pencilling in any particular name atm for next season.
Ryno was signed as an elite shooter for his position. Pat isn't really elite at anything. You're right tho, one great playoff run and the right suitor is all it takes - hello Demarre 2014!