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  • Scraptor wrote: View Post
    2017 Danny Green made 2nd team All-Defense homie
    Yes, but that 2 seasons (29 vs 31) and one long injury ago. And his 3 point which once lived at 42% or more has been sitting around 35% for 3 seasons. So it appears 35% is the new normal
    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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    • Jclaw wrote: View Post
      At least Norm stayed ahead of the guy behind him
      Sign that guy as our 15th man just for that shirt.

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      • KeonClark wrote: View Post
        Yes, but that 2 seasons (29 vs 31) and one long injury ago. And his 3 point which once lived at 42% or more has been sitting around 35% for 3 seasons. So it appears 35% is the new normal
        we're comparing him to Norm though
        Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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        • KeonClark wrote: View Post
          Yes, but that 2 seasons (29 vs 31) and one long injury ago. And his 3 point which once lived at 42% or more has been sitting around 35% for 3 seasons. So it appears 35% is the new normal
          Well, if Green has been trending down then we can hope for the DeMarre Carroll dead cat bounce.

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          • golden wrote: View Post
            Well, if Green has been trending down then we can hope for the DeMarre Carroll dead cat bounce.

            DeMarre bounced the ball like a dead cat. Looked like he had paws and no thumbs
            It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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            • Jclaw wrote: View Post
              Wow. Great first post. Welcome to the republic.
              Thanks, I appreciate it. I see a lot of Raptors fans unfairly turn on Powell (who got his extension widely celebrated by those same fans, btw), treat him like he's a scrub and not a guy who bailed out the Raptors in the playoffs more than once, and give him the Carroll/Patterson treatment, because of one bad season.* But when you look under the surface, the reality is that he isn't being used properly. There is no reason for a slashing guard with a streaky and unreliable three-point shot to be taking so many three-pointers. Yet that is exactly what happened. Then again, misusing players has been a hallmark of Casey's tenure here:
              • Valanciunas was told to bulk up dirty in one off-season and lost mobility, before being used as a garbage man who was expected to hustle and rebound.
              • James Johnson rotted on the bench during the Wizards series while Amir Johnson and Tyler Hansbrough (big men) were left to fend for themselves against the likes of Paul Pierce (an oversized wing who had clear matchup advantages against those two).
              • Valanciunas and Patterson never really developed any passing out of the post/elbows, which would be incredibly helpful in an era that basically requires big men who can pass and make plays.
              • Rudy Gay (terrible) and James Johnson bulked up to play PF, before playing SF anyways.
              • Carroll, as bad as he was (he never should have been signed, especially to that contract), got relegated to spot up shooting behind the arc and waiting for passes on kick outs because of defensive pressure to Lowry and DeRozan. He played differently and more effectively in Atlanta's motion offense under Budenholzer.
              • Ibaka, as bad as he was, also got relegated to spot up shooting behind the arc and played the majority of his minutes at PF, where his inability to switch and defend the perimeter was more exposed, and his ability to protect the rim was minimized. He was also asked to dribble and pass more, when he can't dribble at all and his passing is terrible, and his absurdly accurate mid-range shooting got minimized as well.
              • Powell also got relegated to spot up shooting behind the arc and waiting for passes on kick outs because of defensive pressure to Lowry and DeRozan, despite having a streaky and unreliable jumper and being a slashing guard who excels at driving to the rim. Starting Powell at SF also exposed him to bigger forwards who used their size and strength to score on him easily.

              *then again, this is the same fan base that thought Serge Ibaka was our missing third star (spoiler alert: he isn't even a substantial difference maker for us at all) and welcomed him as such, the same fan base that would happily welcome back and retire the jersey of a washed up Vince Carter who quit on the Raptors many years ago (and I say this as a newer Raptors fan), and the same fan base that called Masai Ujiri a snake for trading away DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard (a no-brainer). Look, I appreciate DeMar DeRozan for the great performances he's had here, as well as wanting to be here, but you have to be a brain-dead idiot to pass up trading him away for Kawhi Leonard. Anyway, my point is: Powell can be saved. I'm not listening to the majority of the fan base who turned their backs on him and are now clamoring to see him traded away for peanuts after celebrating his playoff performances and his contract extension.



              Speaking of Powell's awful three-point shooting last season...he shot 28.5% on three-pointers (49.7% of his FGA), and shot 42.1% on long twos (between 16 feet and the three-point line, 5.1% of his FGA). In other words, Powell's three-pointer had an expected value of 0.855 while his long two-pointer had an expected value of 0.842. A difference of -0.013 in terms of efficiency, but an addition of +13.6% in terms of shot accuracy.

              Just some food for thought. I don't want Powell to be jacking up long twos either, but I thought that would be interesting to share.

              LJ2 wrote: View Post
              I don't know about that. The Raptor's offence was a monster last season and you're talking about slowing it down to accommodate a role player who doesn't fit in and is getting outplayed by end of rotation guys that DO fit in. I'd love to salvage Powell, but not at the cost of maximizing the offence.
              Not just any role player. Powell has shown that he can create his own shot* (he did this a lot in 2016-17, he's probably the best shot creator out of all our young guys - perhaps VanVleet is better at shot creation, but that's it), and he's also shown to be a great guard defender, leveraging his lateral quickness and near 7 foot wingspan to make life tough for opposing guards (especially shooting guards).

              *one indicator of shot creation ability is what % of 2 pointers are unassisted. Powell is at 32.2% of 2 pointers being assisted for his career - less than DeRozan's 41.2% of 2 pointers being assisted for his career.

              Salvaging Powell is an easy fix in my opinion (and IMO it won't really drag down the offense, it might make the offense more difficult to defend actually): cut down his three-point shots drastically and focus on him driving to the basket and passing to/making plays for other players. It'll be much easier for him to do this as well than last season, since he has multiple shooting threats to open up the floor for him, so the paint can't be crowded easily or else the opponent leaves a shooter wide open.

              Great coaches know their players and they build their systems and sets to maximize those players' skillsets. If Nick Nurse can figure out how to use Powell correctly, the team will be better for it. Powell is the quickest and most explosive slasher on the Raptors, IMO. But jacking up three-pointers when he's not good at it is a complete waste of his talent.

              planetmars wrote: View Post
              I need to temper my expectations for Danny Green. For some reason I see another Carroll scenario playing out. Green is 31 years old. Had an injury pretty much all year last year, and may not be fully healthy. From what I can tell most Spurs fans were pretty much okay with Green being packaged with Kawhi in that trade. They found him to be extremely inconsistent and would miss critical open 3's that the team needed.

              If things go bad for Green and Toronto, I could see Norm moving up the rotation displacing him. But like I said, I'm just tempering my expectations this time around.
              Danny Green could end up being the SG version of Patrick Patterson. Good smart defense, but horrendously inconsistent/streaky/average 3-point shooting. Danny Green also can't dribble and is not a good finisher anymore. I think he'll end up being benched eventually. Most Raptors fans who are building him up right now will turn on him and tear him down very quickly (after he enters a shooting slump or looks to be a step slower on defense), like they do with other role players like Carroll/Patterson/Powell when they fail to meet the lofty expectations of Raptors fans. (And the Raptors always seem to pick up very reputable and well-regarded players when they're declining - Ibaka was the latest one, Danny Green could be next...)

              From what I've read from some Spurs fans online:
              • Danny Green plays better when the ball is being zipped around the perimeter to find the open man (what happened until 2014), not when the ball is being kicked out to the perimeter off of post-ups or drives (what happened after 2014 when Kawhi was given the keys). So the bench mob may be a much better fit for him anyways, since zipping the ball around the perimeter is what they do...
              • Danny Green apparently doesn't work on his game much and is content to be a role player, and loves to spend time at nightclubs. Again, sounds like Patrick Patterson, who eventually fell out of favour with Raptors fans for his declining play.

              I hope Powell develops quickly as a playmaker and a slasher, because that's a way for our team can improve immensely without having to trade for another star mid-season to prop up the team. Having someone who can put additional pressure on the defense by constantly driving to the rim and making plays for other players, forcing them to defend both the perimeter and the interior. Hopefully the coaching staff will play him to his strengths as an offensive player and ensure that he doesn't jack up so many threes.

              I'm just not a big fan of Danny Green these days honestly, despite his useful skillset. He completely disappeared in the playoffs this year, he's been shooting 35.7% from beyond the arc over the last three seasons (vs. 42% from 2009 to 2015), and his TS% has been 51.1% over that same timespan (vs. 58.8% from 2009 to 2015). His overall RPM and PIPM (impact metrics that take into account lineups, variance, and strength of opponent) have also declined drastically over the last three seasons as well:
              • 3.25 RPM, 2.9 PIPM in 2015-16
              • 1.26 RPM, 0.2 PIPM in 2016-17
              • 0 RPM, 0.1 PIPM in 2017-18

              I wasn't surprised to see the Spurs trade him away after he opted into his player option this season. (Teams trading away players who just opted into player options is usually not a good sign.) I think the fan base is going to be disappointed when they see that he's not the same player he was 5 years ago who shot lights out against the Miami Heat in the Finals.



              Here's another weird wrinkle that I found for the Raptors' 2017-18 season involving Powell.

              Whenever both Powell and Siakam were on the floor together (992 possessions), Powell had a TS% of 55.2% on a USG% of 21.3%, and he shot 35.8% from beyond the arc, despite 47% of his FGA being threes. Powell also finished around the rim at 71.4% with 45% of his makes there being assisted.

              Whenever Powell was on the floor without Siakam (1067 possessions, 532 of them from one lineup), Powell had a TS% of 43.3% on a USG% of 16.2%, and he shot 20% from beyond the arc, when 52.8% of his FGA were threes. Powell also finished around the rim at 58.5% with 29% of his makes being assisted.

              How exactly does the presence of Siakam improve Powell's efficiency so much?

              It's a much bigger difference than Powell having around 51% TS% with DeRozan off the floor, and Powell having around 44% TS% when both Powell and DeRozan are on the floor together. No other players swing Powell's TS% around that much, and only Siakam improves Powell's three-point shooting drastically.



              It's a very long post, so thanks again for reading. If you guys are wondering where I get all these numbers from, it's mostly from basketball-reference.com, some from stats.nba.com, and that part just above came from nbawowy.com. (Although I'm not really sure about the accuracy of nbawowy...but still interesting stuff.)
              Last edited by DerozansSpurs; Tue Sep 4th, 2018, 06:06 PM.

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              • Powell will not play differently under Nurse. Playing uptempo and shooting threes is Nurse's philosophy. Watching Rico Hines scrimmages confirms that shooting threes will be a focus. Reality is that everytime Norm played he would put his head down and barrell into traffic. He would get stripped or he would turn it over. It's easy to blame Casey for this but Norm was just overhyped.
                Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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                • Meh, Powell’s issues went way beyond how much he shot from distance. He was awful with turning the ball over when he did try to go inside, and his defence was nowhere near consistent enough. And his conversion rate on long range shots has been declining for a few years - even looking at his corner three, which is a shot he has to be able to make to get a role on this team, dropped from 50% to 34% to 29% over the past three seasons.

                  I like Powell, and he has every chance to recover his game. But it starts with him developing a more consistent three point shot, at least from the corner. Not with the coaches modifying the offensive game plan to shoehorn him into the offence, heck, into the rotation at all.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • Norm doesn't mesh with Nurse's offense at all. He needs to find a way to head to Detroit lol

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                    • LJ2 wrote: View Post
                      I don't know about that. The Raptor's offence was a monster last season and you're talking about slowing it down to accommodate a role player who doesn't fit in and is getting outplayed by end of rotation guys that DO fit in. I'd love to salvage Powell, but not at the cost of maximizing the offence.
                      Errr...that's not really what I said. Raptors are on a "all-in, win now" season, so yeah, you don't sacrifice the way the team is built to accommodate one player. In the case of the '18-'19 Raptors, the onus is on Powell to either fit in as the best version of himself, or not play (rather then the coach trying to force him into something he's really not). Same idea for Ibaka. If you want your PF to be able to initiate drive-n-kicks, then have a PF on the court that's good at that (rather then forcing old man Serge to learn how to do that on the fly).

                      Our team is stacked, so we have the luxury of doing that. Sometimes teams don't have that kinda flexibility though, and coaches need to adapt the team's flow to fit the strengths of their best players. Good coaches know that balance. In the case of the Raptors this year, it's sink or swim for the players. We'll have a specific style of play under Nurse, and guys at the end of the bench (like Norm) will either adapt to that style (if they're still malleable enough for that), or not play.

                      What's detrimental for both player and team though, is if they try to force players out of who they really are (trying to fit square pegs into round holes), for whatever reason. We have done that last season to some extent (with Powell and Ibaka), but I think this year with Nurse we won't have that problem (at least not as much as last year).
                      ==Glad to have doubted the doubters==

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                      • inthepaint wrote: View Post
                        Errr...that's not really what I said. Raptors are on a "all-in, win now" season, so yeah, you don't sacrifice the way the team is built to accommodate one player. In the case of the '18-'19 Raptors, the onus is on Powell to either fit in as the best version of himself, or not play (rather then the coach trying to force him into something he's really not). Same idea for Ibaka. If you want your PF to be able to initiate drive-n-kicks, then have a PF on the court that's good at that (rather then forcing old man Serge to learn how to do that on the fly).

                        Our team is stacked, so we have the luxury of doing that. Sometimes teams don't have that kinda flexibility though, and coaches need to adapt the team's flow to fit the strengths of their best players. Good coaches know that balance. In the case of the Raptors this year, it's sink or swim for the players. We'll have a specific style of play under Nurse, and guys at the end of the bench (like Norm) will either adapt to that style (if they're still malleable enough for that), or not play.

                        What's detrimental for both player and team though, is if they try to force players out of who they really are (trying to fit square pegs into round holes), for whatever reason. We have done that last season to some extent (with Powell and Ibaka), but I think this year with Nurse we won't have that problem (at least not as much as last year).
                        Well Ibaka actually fits this system if we just have hit taking open 3's and picking and popping for that jumper he's actually good at. He shouldn't be driving at all unless its a straight line drive like you said. Norm just doesn't fit because one his IQ is bad and two he can't shoot the 3. Our system is pretty much either drive all the way to the basket or shoot the 3. He can't do either that well. At least last season anytime he drove the ball he either turned it over or forced a layup that wasn't there and missed it. He has a very good first step and doesn't have trouble blowing by his man but after that he just makes all the wrong decisions. If he can improve that maybe we can make him a guy who can initiate the offence a bit and lower his 3 point attempts but I don't know if that will get him minutes over CJ to be honest. I truly think the only thing that will get him minutes over CJ is if he gets his 3 point shot under control and develops a chemistry with the bench, two things CJ has over him. But CJ has the respect of the league as a 3 point threat, Powell doesn't. So CJ gives the bench the spacing they need that Powell just wouldn't give them.
                        I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

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                        • GLF wrote: View Post
                          Well Ibaka actually fits this system if we just have hit taking open 3's and picking and popping for that jumper he's actually good at. He shouldn't be driving at all unless its a straight line drive like you said. Norm just doesn't fit because one his IQ is bad and two he can't shoot the 3. Our system is pretty much either drive all the way to the basket or shoot the 3. He can't do either that well. At least last season anytime he drove the ball he either turned it over or forced a layup that wasn't there and missed it. He has a very good first step and doesn't have trouble blowing by his man but after that he just makes all the wrong decisions. If he can improve that maybe we can make him a guy who can initiate the offence a bit and lower his 3 point attempts but I don't know if that will get him minutes over CJ to be honest. I truly think the only thing that will get him minutes over CJ is if he gets his 3 point shot under control and develops a chemistry with the bench, two things CJ has over him. But CJ has the respect of the league as a 3 point threat, Powell doesn't. So CJ gives the bench the spacing they need that Powell just wouldn't give them.
                          Serge and Norm have the same problem - low natural BBIQ. Nurse's system requires quick reads by everyone on the floor. That's why Norm and Serge struggled. Those type of guys are better off in simplified Ride or Die systems, when all they have to do is pass the ball back to KL/DD or Westbrook/Durant instead of making smart decisions with the ball.

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                          • golden wrote: View Post
                            Serge and Norm have the same problem - low natural BBIQ. Nurse's system requires quick reads by everyone on the floor. That's why Norm and Serge struggled. Those type of guys are better off in simplified Ride or Die systems, when all they have to do is pass the ball back to KL/DD or Westbrook/Durant instead of making smart decisions with the ball.
                            This is very true
                            I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

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                            • golden wrote: View Post
                              Serge and Norm have the same problem - low natural BBIQ. Nurse's system requires quick reads by everyone on the floor. That's why Norm and Serge struggled. Those type of guys are better off in simplified Ride or Die systems, when all they have to do is pass the ball back to KL/DD or Westbrook/Durant instead of making smart decisions with the ball.
                              How hard is it to pass to the open man and shoot when you're open?

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                              • Truth Teller wrote: View Post
                                How hard is it to pass to the open man and shoot when you're open?
                                When you have milliseconds to decide? Harder than it looks
                                Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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