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  • DerozansSpurs wrote: View Post
    A big reason why he was bad last season was because he attempted too many three-point shots, 186 3PA to be exact. No, I'm not kidding.
    • Three-pointers were 49.7% of Powell's FGA in 2018 but he shot 28.5% from beyond the arc
    • Three-pointers were 34.2% of Powell's FGA in 2017 but he shot 32.4% from beyond the arc

    His increase in three-point attempt volume diminished his attempts from 0 to 3 feet (where he shoots 60.4% from for his career).
    • 27.8% of Powell's FGA were around the rim in 2018 (he shot 59.6% of attempts)
    • 41.1% of Powell's FGA were around the rim in 2017 (he shot 60.6% of attempts)

    He got to the line a lot less due to his increase in three-point attempt volume.
    • Powell's free throw rate was 10.4% in 2018 and he shot 32 of 39 FT in 2018
    • Powell's free throw rate was 31.4% in 2017 and he shot 126 of 159 FT in 2017

    And not only did his three-point attempts increase, his percentage of attempts from the corner decreased.
    • Corner threes were 33.3% of Powell's 3PA in 2018
    • Corner threes were 44.5% of Powell's 3PA in 2017

    You can see why Powell's TS% went down from 55.2% in 2017 to a putrid 49.2% in 2018. For a slashing guard with an unreliable and streaky three-point shot, he is taking way too many three-pointers and hitting them at below 30%, which hurts the team's offense.

    In fact, Powell and James Harden have disturbingly similar shot charts in 2018. Yes, James Harden, the MVP. Take a look.

    % of FGA 2P 0-3 ft 3-10 ft 10-16 ft 16 ft to 3P line 3P
    Powell .503 .278 .134 .040 .051 .497
    Harden .502 .273 .118 .071 .039 .498
    Does anyone notice an issue with this table? It's the fact that Powell should not be getting so many three-point attempts, when he's not good at them. Harden is very good at attempting threes and shots around the rim, and his shot chart reflects that. Powell's shot chart doesn't reflect his strengths much at all. He took 121 FGA in the restricted area, and 120 FGA from above the arc (the non-corner three-point attempts).

    A lot of slashing guards who aren't good three-point shooters (Russell Westbrook, Monta Ellis, John Wall, Derrick Rose, Tony Parker, Dwyane Wade) usually attempt no more than 20% of their FGA from beyond the arc for their career. Powell has attempted 40.4% of his FGA from beyond the arc for his career, despite shooting 32.4% from beyond the arc for his career. That's not good! That's an issue that needs to be addressed by the coaching staff right away. If the Raptors continue to use Powell as a floor spacer on offense instead of playing him to his strengths as a slashing guard, Powell will flame out of the league very easily after next season.

    People say that Powell lost confidence in himself and that's why he sucked last season. I don't think so. The reality is that he wasn't used correctly at all. He wasn't played to his biggest strengths last season.
    Great post, well broken down.

    You said it best, he was utilized incorrectly. From the eye test, this all backs it up -- he was stationed in the corner and many of his shot attempts were off drive-&-kick, him being the latter part of the scenario.

    I think Nurse, depending on how the rotation will be managed (which is an entirely different issue that will be interesting to watch all season), will have him with the ball more often. I thought Powell -- previous to last season -- was awesome using off-ball screens and getting a headstart towards the rim.
    Twitter: @ReubenJRD NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

    Comment


    • Truth Teller wrote: View Post
      How hard is it to pass to the open man and shoot when you're open?
      MixxAOR wrote: View Post
      When you have milliseconds to decide? Harder than it looks
      It's definitely harder than it looks, and you also have to keep in mind that some of these decisions are also confidence-based.

      Ibaka's been known to pass up good looks, even in his OKC days. Even more passed-up shots now, which absolutely frustrates me.

      It's a combination -- Powell and Ibaka don't really have a cerebral understanding of what's going on around them on the court, but it's tough when they're being used so one-dimensionally. It's not really their games.

      Ibaka is quite solid in the mid-ranged post area, closer to the basket, and in the pick-&-pop/roll. Powell is a slasher, elite when he's got a headstart off pin-downs. Instead, they're pinned as three-point shooters to spread the floor. Hard to be effective in a role when that's... not really their strength.
      Twitter: @ReubenJRD NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

      Comment


      • When Powell was successful (saved Raps during Bucks series) he played like a prototypical 3 and D player.



        He was shooting the three and attacking close outs. He was never actually successful playing "slasher" role that people are pushing for in here.
        Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

        Comment


        • MixxAOR wrote: View Post
          It's easy to blame Casey for this but Norm was just overhyped.
          golden wrote: View Post
          Serge and Norm have the same problem - low natural BBIQ. Nurse's system requires quick reads by everyone on the floor. That's why Norm and Serge struggled. Those type of guys are better off in simplified Ride or Die systems, when all they have to do is pass the ball back to KL/DD or Westbrook/Durant instead of making smart decisions with the ball.
          MixxAOR wrote: View Post
          When Powell was successful (saved Raps during Bucks series) he played like a prototypical 3 and D player.



          He was shooting the three and attacking close outs. He was never actually successful playing "slasher" role that people are pushing for in here.
          • 0:46 Powell picks off a bad pass, races to the rim, and gets an And-1. This shows that Powell is dangerous in the open court thanks to his speed.
          • 1:061:13 Powell runs along the baseline from corner to corner, behind the backs of the Bucks defense, who is focused on containing Lowry. Lowry drives to the rim, is cut off by multiple defenders, and passes out to Ibaka. Powell is almost in the corner at this point. Powell brings his hands up to notify Ibaka that he is open, then Ibaka passes the ball to Powell who then nails the corner three. Drive, kick, swing. This shows that Powell can move off the ball into a better spot where he can get a better opportunity to score.
          • 1:24 DeRozan passes to Cory Joseph, who then passes to Powell in the corner, who then knocks down another corner three. Tucker gives him space to shoot by setting a flare screen on Michael Beasley (a non-NBA player).
          • 1:502:022:19 Powell steals a bad pass from Middleton and then races to the rim before getting fouled on a layup attempt.
          • 2:372:55 Powell once again races down the court on the far left side. He has his head turned right, towards all the players going down the court, to read what is going on. He stations himself in the corner while Tucker passes to DeRozan, who is on the other side of the court. Then, DeRozan passes to an open Powell in the corner, who then swings the ball to a wide open Cory Joseph at the wing right away as Giannis closes out on him. Passing up a good shot for an even better one. More evidence of great and quick decision making from Powell.
          • 3:113:253:36 Powell catches the ball on a kick out from a VanVleet drive to the rim as he runs towards the rim, and then throws down a vicious dunk in spectacular fashion. Great way to end an amazing night from Powell.

          Comment


          • What Powell showed in this game is that he can succeed as a slashing guard, because he has the quickness to blow by defenders (especially on closeouts - when you’re shooting like 90% from three, people will definitely jump out at you) and he’s more than capable of making great decisions quickly. And he’s shown that he can move off the ball effectively as well. Cutting off the ball can help alter the opposing defense in a way that benefits the Raptors’ offense (because easy cuts are easy points), and it can also help Powell continue to be a scoring threat even if his shot isn’t falling. And Powell positioning himself off the ball well helps other players get out of situations that could otherwise be bad (like Lowry's drive around 1:50) and that helps the team.
            None of that works if defense don't honor his shot. We saw this again and again:Guards who can't shoot get exposed. Either he learns how to shoot at respectable clip or he fails.

            And I'm not gonna lie. "Slashing guard" is starting to sound like a fancy word for "need a ball to be successful" and "can't shoot"
            Last edited by MixxAOR; Wed Sep 5th, 2018, 05:19 PM.
            Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

            Comment


            • DerozansSpurs wrote: View Post
              Powell has all the tools and skills to be effective as a slashing guard: he has the quickness, his decision making is sharp, and he is capable of moving well off the ball. Putting that all together is up to him. And I’m confident that he can put it all together if he’s allowed to be himself and not have to be shoehorned into a role that he’s clearly uncomfortable in. Remember, it takes two to tango: Nurse has to let Powell be himself and not ask him to play a specific role that doesn’t play to his strengths, and Powell has to show Nurse that he deserves more playing time. Given Nurse’s comments about failing to acclimate Powell much more in his offense last season, I think he knows what kind of player Powell is and how to use him effectively.
              Don't mean to pull a part out of content from a solid breakdown, but, from last season, his decision making was below average.

              The thing with Powell, prior to last season, was he was always the guy in right spot, at the right time. As I mentioned above, I think a lot of what affected him last year was his confidence.

              Confidence, under-utlization, and a lack of a consistent role -- or understanding thereof -- I think hindered him last season.

              I mean, he started the season and then dropped to spot minutes. Powell was known for his productivity in short stints.
              Twitter: @ReubenJRD NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

              Comment


              • MixxAOR wrote: View Post
                None of that works if defense don't honor his shot. We saw this again and again:Guards who can't shoot get exposed. Either he learns how to shoot at respectable clip or he fails.

                And I'm not gonna lie. "Slashing guard" is starting to sound like a fancy word for "need a ball to be successful" and "can't shoot"
                I think slashers also have to have an off-ball game. Attacking the rim without the ball, cutting, etc. I mean, how do you slash without the ball? lol. I'd have to think it's the method of getting into the action.
                Twitter: @ReubenJRD NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

                Comment


                • Double Helix also had a good post on Norm, and the offchance he could start in front of Green. It's highly unlikely to happen out of the gates, if at all, unless Danny is beat up and Norm is going gangbusters. However, coupled with his running-mate Pascal (as per the stats up there), could make for a very dynamic starting lineup. Powell will have to demonstrate that he's put together a complete game - playmaking, shooting, defense - and that's a big leap to make in one season but it's a fun game of what if.

                  Lowry/Powell/Leonard/Siakam/Valanciunas

                  Last year we needed shooting and Norm couldn't bring it. This year we've got lots of shooting...
                  Last edited by SkywalkerAC; Wed Sep 5th, 2018, 09:41 PM.

                  Comment


                  • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                    Double Helix also had a good post on Norm, and the offchance he could start in front of Green. It's highly unlikely to happen out of the gates, if at all, unless Danny is beat up and Norm is going gangbusters. Coupled with his running-mate Pascal (as per the stats up there), could make for a very dynamic starting lineup. Powell will have to demonstrate that he's put together a complete game - playmaking, shooting, defense - and that's a big leap to make in one season but it's a fun game of what if.

                    Lowry/Powell/Leonard/Siakam/Valanciunas

                    Last year we needed shooting and Norm couldn't bring it. This year we've got lots of shooting...
                    Danny Green is one thing but Norm supplanting OG from the starting lineup seems highly unlikely to me.

                    Comment


                    • DerozansSpurs wrote: View Post
                      Sure, Powell’s issues and struggles last season weren’t entirely on Casey. But when Casey is asking a guy with a streaky and unreliable jumper to play as a floor spacer, to stand behind the line and wait for passes out of drives - yeah, no, Casey definitely deserves some of the blame for that.



                      Powell has demonstrated far better decision making in his second season. His decision making in his third season was garbage, but he’s shown he can be much better and more dynamic than that. (More on that below.)

                      With Ibaka, he’s just an all-athletic hustle big with very little feel for the game. Once you expand his role beyond protecting the rim and shooting jumpers, he starts making costly mistakes. He can’t dribble, he’s not a good passer, and he’s terrible at positioning himself on defense and rebounding. He used to have incredible athleticism to cover up his mistakes, but not anymore...it’s declining.



                      Out of all the 3 games you could have chosen from the Bucks series (where he ran red-hot BTW - people seem to forget that he shot horrifically (22%) in the Cavaliers series, jacking up way too many threes and missing almost all of them), you chose the one where Powell was playing at his most dynamic and at an incredibly high level? He was playing much better that night, than a prototypical 3 and D role player could ever hope to. You couldn’t have picked Game 4 where 9 of his 12 points came from shooting threes, or Game 6 where 6 of his 8 points came from shooting threes?

                      Let’s break down what Powell did exactly in this game in terms of offense:
                      • 0:46 Powell picks off a bad pass, races to the rim, and gets an And-1. This shows that Powell is dangerous in the open court thanks to his speed.
                      • 1:06 Powell catches a pass from DeRozan, attacks a closeout from Greg Monroe, and uses his drive to the rim to draw Giannis and Middleton towards him, before passing the ball to an open Ibaka just as Middleton gets in front of him, giving Ibaka enough time to dunk the ball while Giannis can’t catch up in time. This shows that Powell is capable of making plays off the dribble for others, using his ability to attack the rim to draw defenders away so other teammates are opened up. This also shows that Powell is capable of making quick reads, as he passed the ball to Ibaka as soon as he ran into Giannis and Middleton.
                      • 1:13 Powell runs along the baseline from corner to corner, behind the backs of the Bucks defense, who is focused on containing Lowry. Lowry drives to the rim, is cut off by multiple defenders, and passes out to Ibaka. Powell is almost in the corner at this point. Powell brings his hands up to notify Ibaka that he is open, then Ibaka passes the ball to Powell who then nails the corner three. Drive, kick, swing. This shows that Powell can move off the ball into a better spot where he can get a better opportunity to score.
                      • 1:24 DeRozan passes to Cory Joseph, who then passes to Powell in the corner, who then knocks down another corner three. Tucker gives him space to shoot by setting a flare screen on Michael Beasley (a non-NBA player).
                      • 1:50 Lowry drives along the baseline with multiple defenders trying to contain him, and then passes to Powell in the corner again to knock down another three. As Lowry drove towards the corner, Powell ran into the corner, knowing that Lowry is driving towards that corner and might need someone to pass to. Great decision making from Powell, positioning himself off the ball correctly to make Lowry’s life easier.
                      • 2:02 DeRozan passes the ball to Powell who then nails a very lucky deep shot that bounces around and then falls in, with less than 3 seconds left on the shot clock. A good indicator of how ridiculously hot Powell’s shooting ran.
                      • 2:19 Powell steals a bad pass from Middleton and then races to the rim before getting fouled on a layup attempt.
                      • 2:37 Powell races down the floor before receiving a pass from DeRozan. He then attacks a Middleton closeout and gets into his body to create separation for a floater that goes in. Incredibly quick decision making from Powell, who looks like he knows what he’s doing and isn’t half-assing his decision.
                      • 2:55 Powell once again races down the court on the far left side. He has his head turned right, towards all the players going down the court, to read what is going on. He stations himself in the corner while Tucker passes to DeRozan, who is on the other side of the court. Then, DeRozan passes to an open Powell in the corner, who then swings the ball to a wide open Cory Joseph at the wing right away as Giannis closes out on him. Passing up a good shot for an even better one. More evidence of great and quick decision making from Powell.
                      • 3:11 Powell receives a pass from DeRozan and attacks Giannis’s closeout by driving to the rim with his left hand (his weaker hand) before posterizing Thon Maker.
                      • 3:25 Powell attacks Michael Beasley’s closeout and then kicks out the ball to an open VanVleet. Once again, Powell is demonstrating great decision making.
                      • 3:36 Powell catches the ball on a kick out from a VanVleet drive to the rim as he runs towards the rim, and then throws down a vicious dunk in spectacular fashion. Great way to end an amazing night from Powell.

                      What Powell showed in this game is that he can succeed as a slashing guard, because he has the quickness to blow by defenders (especially on closeouts - when you’re shooting like 90% from three, people will definitely jump out at you) and he’s more than capable of making great decisions quickly. And he’s shown that he can move off the ball effectively as well. Cutting off the ball can help alter the opposing defense in a way that benefits the Raptors’ offense (because easy cuts are easy points), and it can also help Powell continue to be a scoring threat even if his shot isn’t falling. And Powell positioning himself off the ball well helps other players get out of situations that could otherwise be bad (like Lowry's drive around 1:50) and that helps the team.

                      Powell has all the tools and skills to be effective as a slashing guard: he has the quickness, his decision making is sharp, and he is capable of moving well off the ball. Putting that all together is up to him. And I’m confident that he can put it all together if he’s allowed to be himself and not have to be shoehorned into a role that he’s clearly uncomfortable in. Remember, it takes two to tango: Nurse has to let Powell be himself and not ask him to play a specific role that doesn’t play to his strengths, and Powell has to show Nurse that he deserves more playing time. Given Nurse’s comments about failing to acclimate Powell much more in his offense last season, I think he knows what kind of player Powell is and how to use him effectively.
                      Damn this post is intensely thorough. Welcome to the board
                      It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                      Comment


                      • GOLDBLUM wrote: View Post
                        Danny Green is one thing but Norm supplanting OG from the starting lineup seems highly unlikely to me.
                        Do you expect OG to be in the starting lineup? Or are you saying there's a queue?

                        Comment


                        • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                          Do you expect OG to be in the starting lineup? Or are you saying there's a queue?
                          I for one expect OG to be in the starting lineup. Seems to me the choice is between Ibaka and Green, between playing small and big. Powell doesn't enter into it, IMO.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

                          Comment


                          • DanH wrote: View Post
                            I for one expect OG to be in the starting lineup. Seems to me the choice is between Ibaka and Green, between playing small and big. Powell doesn't enter into it, IMO.
                            Cool, I loved the idea when you wrote about Kawhi simply replacing Derozan in the starting lineup - playing big.

                            Comment


                            • DanH wrote: View Post
                              I for one expect OG to be in the starting lineup. Seems to me the choice is between Ibaka and Green, between playing small and big. Powell doesn't enter into it, IMO.
                              I think Ibaka definitely gets a long starting look. Jv Ibaka Kyle and Kawhi are shoe ins for October imo. Which leads me to believe it could be a Wright or a green in the 2 hole, and Ibaka gets the first hook and nurse starts getting flexible.

                              Reason being, nurse will learn just the same way Casey did how much of a coaches job is just playing the politics of these guys egos, and theres a ton of politics in starting In the nba.
                              It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                              Comment


                              • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                                Cool, I loved the idea when you wrote about Kawhi simply replacing Derozan in the starting lineup - playing big.
                                Yeah, that's my favourite look, but I could see the other popular idea that's been floating around of starting OG at the 4, Green at the 2, being what we start with as well.
                                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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