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  • inthepaint wrote: View Post

    Agree that the 2021 player option plays a part, and if I were to pick one, it'd be Fred too. That said, when you look at the numbers, I wonder how big of a discrepancy that really is:


    https://www.basketball-reference.com...r_minute::none


    I know there are caveats on 'per 36' stats, but both Fred & Norm played enough minutes this year to make that not overly skewed. Advanced stats look similar too

    --Difference in 3pt % is 1%
    --Difference in points is 1
    --Difference in STL% is about 1% (Fred Higher)
    --Difference in BLK% is about 1% (Norm Higher)
    --Difference in TOV% is 1.6% (12.1 vs 13.7)
    --Difference in FT % is 2%
    --In age they're 1 yr apart
    --Norm's overall 2P% is 12% higher (we tend to focus on Norm's missed bunnies at the rim but Fred gets blocked at the rim a lot too)
    --Fred is a feisty and smart defender, but Norm is lengthier and more athletic.
    --Fred is clutch, but Norm doesn't shrink or shy away from shots in playoff situations either
    --Fred has more assists, but Norm has more rebounds (that's a function of their roles - Fred playing the point and Norm helping on the wing)

    We tend to think Norm as inconsistent but Fred can be too (he's on a roll now but if you go back to the Philly/Magic series last year it was tough). I think there's a bit of a recency bias when looking at Fred now, because he's been so big on Lowry's absence (and going back to GSW/Bucks series). Ultimately I think both these guys have very good value, either here or for another team. Personally i'd rather keep Fred, but if we move Norm I hope we don't undervalue him.
    Fred is very inconsistent. He has a negative on/off rating: -9.0... worst of any day 1 starter, by far. Norm is even worse (-12.6), but has been getting better the more he plays with Pascal. And Pascal's on/off... wow (+19.1). Even when he has a forgettable night on offense, like yesterday, he can still impact the game in other positive ways. Pascal + bench (TD/RHJ/Boucher) has been killing it.

    https://www.basketball-reference.com...0.html#pbp::11

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    • golden wrote: View Post

      Fred is very inconsistent. He has a negative on/off rating: -9.0... worst of any day 1 starter, by far. Norm is even worse (-12.6), but has been getting better the more he plays with Pascal. And Pascal's on/off... wow (+19.1). Even when he has a forgettable night on offense, like yesterday, he can still impact the game in other positive ways. Pascal + bench (TD/RHJ/Boucher) has been killing it.

      https://www.basketball-reference.com...0.html#pbp::11
      Fred's on-off split is driven largely by two things - early in the season, with Lowry missing so much time, the majority of Pascal's off time has been Fred+bench. That is, Fred has been the key difference between the Pascal-plus-bench and any other bench unit. And Fred is very good but he's not Pascal, who is indeed having true superstar impact this year.

      The other key difference has often been Powell, who they use as a scorer in those bench units when Pascal is sitting, and as such has played almost every bench minute with Fred, and only some of Pascal's bench minutes.

      When you wash out the context, there's a reason Fred is ranked so highly by the impact stats and Powell near the bottom of the league.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • inthepaint wrote: View Post

        Agree that the 2021 player option plays a part, and if I were to pick one, it'd be Fred too. That said, when you look at the numbers, I wonder how big of a discrepancy that really is:


        https://www.basketball-reference.com...r_minute::none


        I know there are caveats on 'per 36' stats, but both Fred & Norm played enough minutes this year to make that not overly skewed. Advanced stats look similar too

        --Difference in 3pt % is 1%
        --Difference in points is 1
        --Difference in STL% is about 1% (Fred Higher)
        --Difference in BLK% is about 1% (Norm Higher)
        --Difference in TOV% is 1.6% (12.1 vs 13.7)
        --Difference in FT % is 2%
        --In age they're 1 yr apart
        --Norm's overall 2P% is 12% higher (we tend to focus on Norm's missed bunnies at the rim but Fred gets blocked at the rim a lot too)
        --Fred is a feisty and smart defender, but Norm is lengthier and more athletic.
        --Fred is clutch, but Norm doesn't shrink or shy away from shots in playoff situations either
        --Fred has more assists, but Norm has more rebounds (that's a function of their roles - Fred playing the point and Norm helping on the wing)

        We tend to think Norm as inconsistent but Fred can be too (he's on a roll now but if you go back to the Philly/Magic series last year it was tough). I think there's a bit of a recency bias when looking at Fred now, because he's been so big on Lowry's absence (and going back to GSW/Bucks series). Ultimately I think both these guys have very good value, either here or for another team. Personally i'd rather keep Fred, but if we move Norm I hope we don't undervalue him.
        Fred's defence is there every night. Norm's defence is a coin toss on every possession. That's a massive difference right there. And yes, Powell's efficiency this year has been better than Fred's (although worth noting that by individual ORTG Fred is at 112, Norm at 108), but also keep in mind Norm has been living in the role Fred is supposed to be in (tertiary scorer and playmaker) while Lowry has been out, while Fred has been forced into the Lowry role.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • The ON/OFF stat for Pascal of +19.1 is amazing considering reigning MVP Giannis A. rating is just +13.2. FVV's number (-9.0) supports the narrative that he has a tougher time creating opportunities for others.

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          • Ballin'.

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            • Norm looks like he belongs in a starting unit.

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              • JawsGT wrote: View Post
                Norm looks like he belongs in a starting unit.
                Guh.

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                • Hopefully its not as bad as we think, I have heard that if you dislocated a shoulder before sometime thhey can become separated without any muscle damage. It just take popping back in and a few weeks off. I remember Delon had one in game that looked really bad, but they just popped it back in and he avoided any serious damage.
                  To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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                  • Yeah, fingers crossed for a speedy recovery. Not an ideal injury for him or us. Next man up.

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                    • any word on the severity of norms shoulder

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                      • rightsideup wrote: View Post
                        any word on the severity of norms shoulder
                        Out indefinitely with left shoulder "subluxation" (ie partial dislocation).

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                        • It's really sad. Norm has turned into a heck of a 2 way player for the Raptors.

                          TSN did a top 25 Raptors of all time list a month or so ago and I don't think Norm made the cut. He is EASILY one of the top 25 greatest Raptors of all time. I have him ahead of guys like Oakley and Peterson and Ford and the two Williams.

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                          • The Great One wrote: View Post
                            It's really sad. Norm has turned into a heck of a 2 way player for the Raptors.

                            TSN did a top 25 Raptors of all time list a month or so ago and I don't think Norm made the cut. He is EASILY one of the top 25 greatest Raptors of all time. I have him ahead of guys like Oakley and Peterson and Ford and the two Williams.
                            Yeah Norm has had his share of inconsistent stretches, but all in all I think he's an underrated player. You can find negative stats on just about any player, but at the end of the day we're 14-3 with him starting (the 3 losses were the 2 Clipper games and the Mavs one where despite the L he put 26pts).

                            His defence has had lapses, but he's athletic/lengthy, can switch to guard forwards, and help on the glass. His decision making looks improved this year as well. I feel like if we got a super athletic "new player" that was 26, averaging ~15ppg, shooting 39% from 3 , while also being able to slash to the rim, everyone would be super excited about said player (but because Norm is an old hat within the team, the shine has a harder time coming through).
                            ==Glad to have doubted the doubters==

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                            • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                              Yeah Norm has had his share of inconsistent stretches, but all in all I think he's an underrated player. You can find negative stats on just about any player, but at the end of the day we're 14-3 with him starting (the 3 losses were the 2 Clipper games and the Mavs one where despite the L he put 26pts).

                              His defence has had lapses, but he's athletic/lengthy, can switch to guard forwards, and help on the glass. His decision making looks improved this year as well. I feel like if we got a super athletic "new player" that was 26, averaging ~15ppg, shooting 39% from 3 , while also being able to slash to the rim, everyone would be super excited about said player (but because Norm is an old hat within the team, the shine has a harder time coming through).
                              Well put...He is certainly delivering mow (until the injury) on the potential we've all seen since that rookie year. Injuries haven't helped. I would have no issue with Norm in the Top 25.

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