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  • JawsGT wrote: View Post
    The bubble performances were poor because our #1 option wasnt a #1 option. It all stemmed from pascals inability to generate efficient offence. Like Dan said. All the other top guys we still have are great players, but they need that almost unguardable guy to help open up the offence. Mentally, its huge, as those secondary guys can relax a bit more knowing they have a teammate that can carry them through the tough stretches scoring the ball. Pascal simply couldnt do that, and neither could anyone else, and we really shouldnt expect it. Its easy to get anxious and throw your shot off when you feel every shot you take has to go down because that truly dominant go to guy just isnt there. Hopefully Pascal can figure it out, cause he has the tools. And maybe it wont matter too much if they actually land a big fish. Sometimes i wonder if beal would be enough if you can retain pascal, og, fred and lowry. That might not even be possible, but if it was, who would come off the bench?
    Off topic from Norm but...

    Makes me think of this tweet from Ball Don't Stop earlier today...

    Kawhi was so well served by how the Raptors complimented him. His game isn't made anywhere near as easy in LA right now, having to share the floor with other volume scorers in PG and Lou, with an unbalanced squad.

    It's been said before and I hate to say it again... but I think more and more, if Kawhi is around last year and the squad stays healthy, we handily walk over the Lakers to another title... and by that logic, it's easy to think we coulda won not one, not two, not three... etc.

    To think of the possible missed rings.... it could prove to take Kawhi out of the conversations with the greats by the time all is said and done.

    Hope you're having fun frequently visiting your mother in L.A., Kawhi. smfh

    Maybe Serge can give you a taste of that TO magic.

    Enjoy the beef dick. lol

    (all love)
    Last edited by GOLDBLUM; Fri Nov 27, 2020, 07:51 PM.

    Comment


    • JawsGT wrote: View Post
      The bubble performances were poor because our #1 option wasnt a #1 option. It all stemmed from pascals inability to generate efficient offence. Like Dan said. All the other top guys we still have are great players, but they need that almost unguardable guy to help open up the offence. Mentally, its huge, as those secondary guys can relax a bit more knowing they have a teammate that can carry them through the tough stretches scoring the ball. Pascal simply couldnt do that, and neither could anyone else, and we really shouldnt expect it. Its easy to get anxious and throw your shot off when you feel every shot you take has to go down because that truly dominant go to guy just isnt there. Hopefully Pascal can figure it out, cause he has the tools. And maybe it wont matter too much if they actually land a big fish. Sometimes i wonder if beal would be enough if you can retain pascal, og, fred and lowry. That might not even be possible, but if it was, who would come off the bench?
      I mean, there was a serious difference in Pascal's offensive game between the bubble and the regular season. Like, a huge huge difference. He went from superstar to role player. I think he was out of rhythm and he could no longer feed on the energy of the crowd. He'll be way, way better. I'm not worried about it being a long-term issue.

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      • GOLDBLUM wrote: View Post

        Off topic from Norm but...

        Makes me think of this tweet from Ball Don't Stop earlier today...

        Kawhi was so well served by how the Raptors complimented him. His game isn't made anywhere near as easy in LA right now, having to share the floor with other volume scorers in PG and Lou, with an unbalanced squad.

        It's been said before and I hate to say it again... but I think more and more, if Kawhi is around last year and the squad stays healthy, we handily walk over the Lakers to another title... and by that logic, it's easy to think we coulda won not one, not two, not three... etc.

        To think of the possible missed rings.... it could prove to take Kawhi out of the conversations with the greats by the time all is said and done.

        Hope you're having fun frequently visiting your mother in L.A., Kawhi. smfh

        Maybe Serge can give you a taste of that TO magic.

        Enjoy the beef dick. lol

        (all love)
        what sucks is that. if he resigned he wouldn't even play in toronto for 2 years. it would've been bubble in orlando and now this year in tampa. So no winter (shit weather) concern lol
        Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

        Comment


        • G__Deane wrote: View Post

          So basically everyone improves except your best player?
          Makes sense
          Most players hit their physical prime at 28 - 29. Of course it varies a bit. The bell curve is a real thing. And getting a late start at the game, or getting to the NBA late, with top coaches, top level competition and excellent athlete care is a factor as well. So it is reasonable to expect players under twenty-nine to improve every year simply based on physical growth and training and then to see improvement slow until their body gets to 33/35. Improvement after 29 continues to come based on experience, adaptation and focused efforts to eliminate weaknesses. After 33, almost no players continue to improve more than their bodies begin to fail, so the best maintain a high level of performance. Lowry has been an exception. As nice as it would be to expect continued improvement, it seems a long shot. Baynes would seem to be an exception as well, but his stats are what they are and show steady improvement so far.

          Would you care to make a prediction about how much Lowry will improve this year? And which stats will increase? I hope it happens. I believe it is unreasonable to expect it.

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          • Puffer wrote: View Post

            Most players hit their physical prime at 28 - 29. Of course it varies a bit. The bell curve is a real thing. And getting a late start at the game, or getting to the NBA late, with top coaches, top level competition and excellent athlete care is a factor as well. So it is reasonable to expect players under twenty-nine to improve every year simply based on physical growth and training and then to see improvement slow until their body gets to 33/35. Improvement after 29 continues to come based on experience, adaptation and focused efforts to eliminate weaknesses. After 33, almost no players continue to improve more than their bodies begin to fail, so the best maintain a high level of performance. Lowry has been an exception. As nice as it would be to expect continued improvement, it seems a long shot. Baynes would seem to be an exception as well, but his stats are what they are and show steady improvement so far.

            Would you care to make a prediction about how much Lowry will improve this year? And which stats will increase? I hope it happens. I believe it is unreasonable to expect it.
            Expecting every player on the roster to improve just based primarily on age is the very definition of rose coloured fandom.
            many of the best players in the NBA are well past their prime in years yet still at the top of their game after years of what should have been regression:
            lebron 35
            Durant 32
            Westbrook 32
            Harden 31
            Jimmy Buckets 31

            Kyrie should have gotten better every year the last few since he's squarely in his prime (28), NOT. Many many just plateau or burn out before their prime just determined by age. Same for Simmons and Embiid. Arguably getting worse and breaking down before their prime.

            Zinger 25
            Jamal Murray 23
            Bam 23
            Donovan Mitchell 24
            Ben Simmons 24
            Jason Tatum 22
            Luka Doncic 21
            Zion 20

            Can you imagine Luka, Tatum and Zion getting better every single year (just because they are younger) for the next 8 years? They would each be lebron lol. Hell, all the borderline all stars would easily be all stars just because they got older. Unless you want to dismiss the hundreds that this will never happen with, down to lack of the very best competition, care and coaching ....

            Too simplistic to just think all our younger players will get better every year in the same year. You'd never have draft duds either

            Comment


            • golden wrote: View Post

              We're going in circles here. Norm can plug & play into FVV's spot in the starting lineup. His impact was exactly same or slightly better than our 21-22/M dollar man. You do love you some net rating, don't you?

              Starting lineup with FVV: net rating +12.8 (360 min)
              Starting lineup with Norm: net rating +13.2 (110 min, which is a decent sample. 6th most used lineup last year)
              I think I’ve been pretty clear that no, I do not like using any one stat no matter which one it is, but rather a collection of different statistical information to inform a position.

              Yes, net rating in lineup data is useful. It however does not change the very different roles those two play in that lineup, or are capable of playing in any given lineup, nor does it take into account the opposition for those samples. Which is why we also look at impact stats, and keep in mind that impact stats only measure how well a player played in the role he was used in, and we know that Norm has been handed a largely catch and shoot, pure scorer role that FVV has been shown to excel in in the past, but that FVV has been asked to carry a bigger playmaking load that he is not quite ready for to ease the burden on Lowry.

              Yes, we are going in circles, because every time we come back to this you ignore that this is where the conversation ends up and you circle back to grabbing a single data point to throw at me and claim your victory once again.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • Maury wrote: View Post

                I mean, there was a serious difference in Pascal's offensive game between the bubble and the regular season. Like, a huge huge difference. He went from superstar to role player. I think he was out of rhythm and he could no longer feed on the energy of the crowd. He'll be way, way better. I'm not worried about it being a long-term issue.
                Absolutely, but pascal came out the gate like an MVP and was slowly coming back to earth as the season progressed. Defences were adjusting mid season and his effectiveness was declining. He got chewed up by Bostons D, and any number of teams in those playoffs could have had a similar impact on pascals offensive game. Hes not that unguardable type player. Fingers crossed he gets there but clearly the franchise isnt banking on it and we should be happy for that.

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                • JawsGT wrote: View Post

                  Absolutely, but pascal came out the gate like an MVP and was slowly coming back to earth as the season progressed. Defences were adjusting mid season and his effectiveness was declining. He got chewed up by Bostons D, and any number of teams in those playoffs could have had a similar impact on pascals offensive game. Hes not that unguardable type player. Fingers crossed he gets there but clearly the franchise isnt banking on it and we should be happy for that.
                  I think we are giving Boston's D way too much credit. He struggled throughout the whole bubble.

                  I agree he's not that unguardable type player but there's quite a chasm between what he looked like in the bubble and unguardable.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • G__Deane wrote: View Post

                    Expecting every player on the roster to improve just based primarily on age is the very definition of rose coloured fandom.
                    many of the best players in the NBA are well past their prime in years yet still at the top of their game after years of what should have been regression:
                    lebron 35
                    Durant 32
                    Westbrook 32
                    Harden 31
                    Jimmy Buckets 31

                    Kyrie should have gotten better every year the last few since he's squarely in his prime (28), NOT. Many many just plateau or burn out before their prime just determined by age. Same for Simmons and Embiid. Arguably getting worse and breaking down before their prime.

                    Zinger 25
                    Jamal Murray 23
                    Bam 23
                    Donovan Mitchell 24
                    Ben Simmons 24
                    Jason Tatum 22
                    Luka Doncic 21
                    Zion 20

                    Can you imagine Luka, Tatum and Zion getting better every single year (just because they are younger) for the next 8 years? They would each be lebron lol. Hell, all the borderline all stars would easily be all stars just because they got older. Unless you want to dismiss the hundreds that this will never happen with, down to lack of the very best competition, care and coaching ....

                    Too simplistic to just think all our younger players will get better every year in the same year. You'd never have draft duds either
                    (Sigh)

                    Pretty sure I mentioned reasons why individual players would improve. And pretty sure I said it's "reasonable" to expect improvement as bodies mature and respond to training and practice and players gain improvement as a result of experience and coaching. I didn't say that players who won't lose weight, who don't work on their game, who have ego issues or won't listen to good advice will improve. Nor did I say that players with health issues will automatically improve. I specifically referenced a bell curve. Bell curves have outliers. Those are the small proportion of cases that are away from the bulk of the cases in any sample. Without arguing with your selection of 9 declining players out of the 500 that are currently on NBA teams, or the 5 superstars that continue to be excellent, having even 50 players at either end of the spectrum doesn't disprove the general case that physical primes happen, for NBA players that "prime" tends to be around 28/29, and declines tens to start around 33/35.

                    But, what the hey, this is just a fan forum. I DID add a smiley face in my original post and self-identify as an optimist. I will stand by it.

                    Comment


                    • DanH wrote: View Post

                      I think we are giving Boston's D way too much credit. He struggled throughout the whole bubble.

                      I agree he's not that unguardable type player but there's quite a chasm between what he looked like in the bubble and unguardable.
                      Not really sure what your point is here. His effectiveness was trending down after a great start...teams were learning how to defend him better as the season progressed. If all we ever get out of pascal is what we got from him in the bubble then he is at best a 3rd option. Hes better than that I know. Hell he was a fantastic #2 on a championship team. But there is quite the chasm between a effective #2 and an effective #1 for a championship contender. Many teams have a player that can effectively guard pascal. We all know the top teams have that one player that warps defences and can just go knock down a shot. Tatum looked like that type of player, pascal did not. Hell we have a bunch of good defenders and a good system and tatum pretty much did whatever he wanted while pascal was getting grief from just jaylen brown. Maybe bostons D really wasnt that great, but if thats the case then that makes pascal look even worse. I think there are alot of things that both pascal and the team can do to make it a little easier on him, and there is certainly room for improvement with his individual skills and court awareness and recognition. Maybe he was just out of his comfort zone with the bubble life. Doesnt really matter, the cream rose to the top in the bubble and pascal didnt rise with it. And ultimately, we will not be contenders with pascal, og, and fvv as our core unless pascal takes another big leap that translates well when playoff defences hone in.

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                      • Puffer wrote: View Post

                        (Sigh)

                        Pretty sure I mentioned reasons why individual players would improve. And pretty sure I said it's "reasonable" to expect improvement as bodies mature and respond to training and practice and players gain improvement as a result of experience and coaching. I didn't say that players who won't lose weight, who don't work on their game, who have ego issues or won't listen to good advice will improve. Nor did I say that players with health issues will automatically improve. I specifically referenced a bell curve. Bell curves have outliers. Those are the small proportion of cases that are away from the bulk of the cases in any sample. Without arguing with your selection of 9 declining players out of the 500 that are currently on NBA teams, or the 5 superstars that continue to be excellent, having even 50 players at either end of the spectrum doesn't disprove the general case that physical primes happen, for NBA players that "prime" tends to be around 28/29, and declines tens to start around 33/35.

                        But, what the hey, this is just a fan forum. I DID add a smiley face in my original post and self-identify as an optimist. I will stand by it.
                        Fair enough, no argument here. I just read a fan thinking (not hoping) that every younger player will get better and laughed.
                        That's an optimist all right, never happens, prime production often doesn't coincide to prime age but you still acknowledge outliers yet there won't be any on the Raptors lol. But cheers!

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                        • JawsGT wrote: View Post

                          Not really sure what your point is here. His effectiveness was trending down after a great start...teams were learning how to defend him better as the season progressed. If all we ever get out of pascal is what we got from him in the bubble then he is at best a 3rd option. Hes better than that I know. Hell he was a fantastic #2 on a championship team. But there is quite the chasm between a effective #2 and an effective #1 for a championship contender. Many teams have a player that can effectively guard pascal. We all know the top teams have that one player that warps defences and can just go knock down a shot. Tatum looked like that type of player, pascal did not. Hell we have a bunch of good defenders and a good system and tatum pretty much did whatever he wanted while pascal was getting grief from just jaylen brown. Maybe bostons D really wasnt that great, but if thats the case then that makes pascal look even worse. I think there are alot of things that both pascal and the team can do to make it a little easier on him, and there is certainly room for improvement with his individual skills and court awareness and recognition. Maybe he was just out of his comfort zone with the bubble life. Doesnt really matter, the cream rose to the top in the bubble and pascal didnt rise with it. And ultimately, we will not be contenders with pascal, og, and fvv as our core unless pascal takes another big leap that translates well when playoff defences hone in.
                          Right. It makes Pascal's performance in the bubble look worse because his performance in the bubble was indeed atrocious. Even against the Nets, who barely have a defence at all. The point is that his bubble performance is not at all indicative of the way he usually plays and assuming that it was predictive of some future ceiling on his game is incorrect, in my view.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post

                            Right. It makes Pascal's performance in the bubble look worse because his performance in the bubble was indeed atrocious. Even against the Nets, who barely have a defence at all. The point is that his bubble performance is not at all indicative of the way he usually plays and assuming that it was predictive of some future ceiling on his game is incorrect, in my view.
                            I'm not trying to predict his ceiling. He may indeed elevate his game where he can be true #1 option. But his atrocious play in the bubble against both poor and good defences doesnt exactly add confidance that he will get there. Quite the opposite in fact.

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                            • DanH wrote: View Post

                              I think we are giving Boston's D way too much credit. He struggled throughout the whole bubble.

                              I agree he's not that unguardable type player but there's quite a chasm between what he looked like in the bubble and unguardable.
                              Eh Boston had a very good game plan defensively - patially betting their wing defenders would lock down Siakam 1 v 1 a lot. Sure enough Siakam looked like hed never dribbled a ball before - think its safe to say a combination of bad O and better D

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                              • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post

                                Eh Boston had a very good game plan defensively - patially betting their wing defenders would lock down Siakam 1 v 1 a lot. Sure enough Siakam looked like hed never dribbled a ball before - think its safe to say a combination of bad O and better D
                                Sure. There was some impact from the Celtics.

                                But again, we're talking a different player in the bubble here. And that's like reasons 1 through 3 why he struggled, anything the defence did is way down the list. Let's use simple FG% as a proxy to make comparisons easy.

                                Against Boston he shot 38% from the floor. Awful.

                                Against the Nets, who barely played NBA players and had freaking Kurucs guarding him, Pascal shot 41%. Awful.

                                In the bubble warmup games Pascal shot 39%. Awful.

                                In the rest of the regular season, he shot 46% from the floor. Including 48% over the last month before the shutdown for those who claim defences were figuring him out.

                                Obviously we can dig deeper into a bunch of other stats, but I thought that one was a pretty good simple catch all for his ability to get to the spots he wants to and convert.

                                He was awful in an environment he will likely never play in again after a layoff the length and character of which he will likely never experience again. Really not going to worry too much about how that translates to the rest of his career.
                                ​​​​​
                                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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