Everything Norman Powell

[jimmie]

Of course, the nature of statistics is that they shouldn't be used to change your mind, but reinforce what you already know ("think" - fixed it for you).

Um, that's not the nature of stats. That's the definition of confirmation bias. You're doing it wrong. With all due respect.

[GLF]

The thing is, Ross' three point shot is an elite skill. We're talking about Powell, currently shooting 24.1% from 3, and 2/11 from above the break, and who in four years in college only took 354 3s from the shorter college line and only hit 31.4% of them, getting to the level of Ross, who has taken 272 three point attempts this season and hit them at a 39.3% rate, with only 28.7% of those attempts being from the corners.

That's a massive gap.

This is very true. But because Powell can do a lot of other things on the court offensively he doesn't have to be Ross level good from 3. Ross literally can't do anything else consistently other than shoot the 3 on the offensive end so he kind of has to be elite to make up for all that. But Ross is very important to our team so I definitely would love to keep both him and Powell if possible. They both bring different things to the game. If we lost Ross we would definitely have to find an elite 3 point shooter pronto.

[KeonClark]

I can see Powell turning into an Iguodala-type player in his prime. That's still great for a 2nd round pick.

"Still" great? Lol that's pretty much best case scenario.

I also saw a guy earlier say Bayless potential is something "nobody wants"

Guys, let's keep things in perspective. He's still a 2nd rounder who's had like 2 good nba games. We're still hoping he becomes a regular rotation player first.

[tDotted]

I didn't see yesterday's game and I think that has given me more perspective on Powell because after one good game I'm hearing comparisons of Powell to Arenas, Monta, Westbrook and Igoudala. It's like when we have a bad loss and the forum goes nuts like our season just ended. We tend to swing wildly from game to game around here.

I think Iggy is a much more realistic comparison than those other all-stars mentioned (I've seen John Wall too).

That would be great for any pick, not just a 2nd rounder. If you got an Iguodala type with the 5th pick that would be fantastic. Not sure I see that kind of player in Powell though. Iggy's bigger, so that already gives him a leg up especially as a versatile multi-position player on both ends. And Powell would have to really come on strong as a facilitator, which Iggy is great at for a wing but the jury's still very much out on Powell, who hasn't shown that level of creativity but has shown flashes of making smart passes.

---

Someone mentioned Avery Bradley earlier. People have also mentioned Tony Allen before. In the best case, I think you're probably looking at a better version of such players (at least in terms of a likely outcome). He's bigger and more athletic than Bradley. He has more offensive upside than Allen (might already be a better offensive player than him). If he's a guy who can defend both backcourt spots, shoot the 3 well enough (say 36%+) and brings high energy play to both ends, I'd be thrilled with that.

Yeah that's true. Maybe a "middle-class man's Iggy"? I hesitated with Avery Bradley because I don't see him being that consistent of a shooter. Plus, Powell's more of a slasher.

"Still" great? Lol that's pretty much best case scenario.

I also saw a guy earlier say Bayless potential is something "nobody wants"

Guys, let's keep things in perspective. He's still a 2nd rounder who's had like 2 good nba games. We're still hoping he becomes a regular rotation player first.

Yeah, I should've said best case. I was seeing some pretty gaudy comparisons being thrown out there. But you're right, he definitely needs more games under his belt.

[Barolt]

Um, that's not the nature of stats. That's the definition of confirmation bias. You're doing it wrong. With all due respect.

Brian Kopp from Catapult Sports: “Data is not meant to flip things on their head.” Instead, its supposed to “reinforce things you already know.”

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/03/14/slo...-shane-battier

From the Sloan Sports Conference.

[OldSkoolCool]

Basically what Norman has showed us...is that playing young guys has BENEFITS

Therefore, for the remainder of the year I would like to experiment with him using all of James Johnsons minutes

Also, give Delon wright, Bruno and Bebe minutes as we rest players (and JV injured) down the stretch to keep them hunger and give them the needed experience of NBA speed.

I dont think that NP playing well means we should trade Ross, who somewhere along the line has developed the work ethic of Bargnani whilst working hard at the gym...if thats possible

[Mess]

Yeah that's true. Maybe a "middle-class man's Iggy"? I hesitated with Avery Bradley because I don't see him being that consistent of a shooter. Plus, Powell's more of a slasher.
.

It took Bradley til his 4th season to be an above average 3P shooter. That .407 clip in his 2nd year was on just 54 attempts total.

[Chr1s1anL]

I like them both on this team but, I think Powell will have the better career.

[jimmie]

Brian Kopp from Catapult Sports: “Data is not meant to flip things on their head.” Instead, its supposed to “reinforce things you already know.”

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/03/14/slo...-shane-battier

From the Sloan Sports Conference.

Because some guy who makes his living off selling stats says it, it must be true?

And the problem with your reliance on Kopp's statement is that you don't "know" what you think you know. You "believe" stuff and use stats to prop up that belief and give it more credence that it's really worth, to the point that you end up thinking you "know" something.

[JawsGT]

Brian Kopp from Catapult Sports: “Data is not meant to flip things on their head.” Instead, its supposed to “reinforce things you already know.”

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/03/14/slo...-shane-battier

From the Sloan Sports Conference.

If Brian Kopp was a scientist, he'd be unemployed.

[Barolt]

Because some guy who makes his living off selling stats says it, it must be true?

And the problem with your reliance on Kopp's statement is that you don't "know" what you think you know. You "believe" stuff and use stats to prop up that belief and give it more credence that it's really worth, to the point that you end up thinking you "know" something.

The idea is more that you use statistics to reinforce what you're seeing on the court. Neither one in isolation is enough. The eye test by itself is subject to biases, and statistics on their own don't offer a complete picture.

I've admitted that I've been wrong before, but when I notice something in the game I look to the stats to see if what I'm seeing is confirmation bias or can be backed up statistically.

I don't believe in my own infallibility either, as I admitted in the game thread for last night, I have no way of proving whether we're a better team because we pass more, but I enjoy watching that kind of basketball more.

[white men can't jump]

I think Iggy is a much more realistic comparison than those other all-stars mentioned (I've seen John Wall too).



Yeah that's true. Maybe a "middle-class man's Iggy"? I hesitated with Avery Bradley because I don't see him being that consistent of a shooter. Plus, Powell's more of a slasher.



Yeah, I should've said best case. I was seeing some pretty gaudy comparisons being thrown out there. But you're right, he definitely needs more games under his belt.

Bradley's kind of an overrated shooter. He has a nice shot, but his %s aren't exactly elite. Might have something to do with his inability to stay healthy, but the last couple of years he's played a lot and his %s are still just good, not great. Could Powell becaome a 35-36%+ 3pt shooter? Maybe. And that's where Bradley's hovered around the last two years. Now, I don't expect Powell to necessarily be as good on longer 2s, but given he's a slasher, he shouldn't have to settle for those as much like Bradley does (over 70% of Bradley's offence on long 2s and 3s).

[Barolt]

Bradley's kind of an overrated shooter. He has a nice shot, but his %s aren't exactly elite. Might have something to do with his inability to stay healthy, but the last couple of years he's played a lot and his %s are still just good, not great. Could Powell becaome a 35-36%+ 3pt shooter? Maybe. And that's where Bradley's hovered around the last two years. Now, I don't expect Powell to necessarily be as good on longer 2s, but given he's a slasher, he shouldn't have to settle for those as much like Bradley does (over 70% of Bradley's offence on long 2s and 3s).

I wish I could pull college shot charts for Powell, because in the D-League and in the NBA so far, there's just no sample size for him on midrange or 3pt attempts. What there is says that he's alright from the corners, but not great above the break, which is why I made the James Johnson comparison.

[JawsGT]

a good comparison for Powell is Demar Derozan with better D.

[3inthekeon]

Because some guy who makes his living off selling stats says it, it must be true?

And the problem with your reliance on Kopp's statement is that you don't "know" what you think you know. You "believe" stuff and use stats to prop up that belief and give it more credence that it's really worth, to the point that you end up thinking you "know" something.

The quote was presented without context, to further an argument.

Kopp was probably talking about his company's data, not data in general. The data Catapult Sports tracks players effort and physical output in practices, and warns when thresholds are reached to prevent injury.